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The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

T103 - 300 BC

Cliff's Notes: CFC researched a classical tech. Otherwise mostly pop growths. Global increase of power of 26000 from unknown causes, but CivPlayers might still be the rival worst.

Demos:
[Image: ISDG-T103-post-rb-demos.jpg]

Score table

TeamScore changePopTechLand
RB63 (+1 pop; 59 total)3 (Forbidden Fruit, +4 tiles; 114 total)
WPC103 (+1 pop; 24 total)7 (+9 tiles; 66 total)
Spanish55 (+2 pop; 27 total)
Apolyton1412 (+5 pop; 38 total)2 (+4 tiles; 96 total)
CivFr135 (+2 pop; 47 total)8 (+12 tiles; 106 total)
CivPlayers22 (+1 pop; 32 total)
CFC2210 (+4 pop; 50 total)12 (classical)
Univers77 (+3 pop; 50 total)

Score analysis

F8 analysis tells us there are 18 new pop points, excluding the new German city of Wasserburg. There are 71 new score points, and 25 land tiles to score from T83. Land and pop together come to circa 60 score. GNP analysis shows no changes since last turn.

WPC: Was by far the rival worst in land on T82 with 57 tiles, and so gained 9 land tiles on T83 but were still the rival worst. That leaves 1 pop growth, to 24 pop.

CFC: Grew Indira to 12, Lana to 9, Raj to 5, and Lakshmi to 6, for 50 total pop. That leaves 12 score, so they probably finished a classical tech in 8t. They are #2 in population right now. With no change in power and no new known techs, I pencil in Currency.

CivPlayers: Xochicalco has now grown to size 3. They have 32 pop total.

CivFr: Settled their sixth city on T78, and it should have expanded borders on T83, thus land points. Did a 2->1 whip in T102 that I never described. Putting them as rival best in land on T83 gives them 8 score, leaving 5 for two pop growths (to 7 and 4) and 47 total pop, fitting with the new rival best value in population.

That leaves up to 10 pop points and 4 land tiles to the rest of the teams.

Spanish: The 4 land tiles would give them 3 score, and growth to 26 pop would also give them 3 score. Thus they grew 2 pop, for 5 score.

Univers: 4 land tiles would give them 3 score, and growth to 49 pop would give them 4 score. Thus there are two possible solutions for Univers, 2 pop (49 total) and land, or 3 pop (50 total).

Apolyton: 4 land tiles would give them 2 score, leaving 12. Growth from 33 to 38 pop would give 12 score, and from 33 to 39 pop would give 14. So both solutions are valid.

Which solution is the more likely? I judge Apolyton growing six cities (all of their cities but one) to be the less likely solution, since they grew two cities T102, two cities T101, and two T100, even with their large whips, but they might be running an insane food surplus. However, Apolyton's 3-pop whip caused a drop of 2000 in power and 8 in score, which fits with a drop in population from 38 to 35, but not with 39 to 36. The whip caused a population drop of 129000, so it was a 6->3 whip.

Either WPC or the Spanish are the rival worst in population, though I judge WPC to be the more likely candidate (more cities, and less pop).

Power analysis

This analysis includes Apolyton's whip. First, our whips from 153 to 150 caused us to drop from #3 to #4 in power, so we have one team that is very close to us in power besides WPC.

No change to rival best, rival worst up with 1000, and rival total up 35000. Power from pop were up 1000 for WPC, the Spanish, Apolyton, CivFr, and CivPlayers; and 2000 for CFC and Univers, leaving 26000 to other causes.

APTmod data shows no other power increases to WPC, the Germans, and WPC, so all the changes in power are for unknown teams.

Other

Before ending turn 102, the Germans settled the city of Wasserburg (see the turn tracking thread). It probably claimed 8 land tiles (Worms is at 3-ring culture).

We received an instant trade route to the city, but we still don't have trade routes with Wesselburen (the German city #7) or Fields of Color (the WPC dye city).

APTmod and graphs

Another important note. The 2-team graphs from APTmod were borked this turn, but weren't last turn. Thus I think it is limited to 512 data points, and three quarters of them are made up of ourselves, rival worst, and rival max, when showing one team. Thus, the last turn we can get best use of APTmod data is on T127.

Thus, if we want to get a good picture of CivPlayers (which I assume we do), we must use the EP slider no later than T126.
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The Spanish performed 2 2-pop whips before ending their turn, one 8->6 and one 7->5. They have 23 pop now. The rival worst in power didn't change from this, so I belive CivPlayers are still the rival worst in power. Must have been real lucky with their barbs, I think.

Rival worst in population didn't change, so I think that must be WPC, but I get no satisfactory solutions 427000 population over 24, 32, or for that matter 33 pop.
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Demos after CivFr founded their latest city:

--
Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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t103 - midturn City I founded by CivFR

uhh, so i updated the score, pop and land screens, but not the demo screen - wasnt sure about mid-turn updates? kjn?

Since rival total land increased by 9000, CivFr settled a landlocked city to gain a total of 153 tiles. They also passed up a team that was sitting on 149 tiles. So when t123 rolls around we know that at least one team should have 103 score from land.

since kjn took the demos, rival best gnp +2, rival best prod +3. since many teams have played the turn - can't pin this on civfr - but its possible.
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Best dating advice on RB: When you can't hide your unit, go in fast and hard. -- Sullla
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I usually update the demos screen too, and check if there are any gross changes somewhere. Since the land screen feeds from the demos, it helps to do it that way round.
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Demos after CFC settled their city.

[Image: ISDG-T103-post-cfc-demos.jpg]
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What can cause a 10-point in-turn score change?

[Image: ISDG-T104-cfc-score-changes.png]

Unless it's capturing a size 5 barb city? Must be that, since CFC are up to 12 cities now too. Or land score tallying are even more borked when cities are captured than I thought.

I really need the start-of-turn demos to work this through.

Christianity was founded by CivPlayers.
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T104 - 275 BC

Cliff's Notes: WPC received land points. CivFr researched an ancient tech (has all but one now) in 2t. CivPlayers researched Theology in 5t, founding Christianity. Otherwise all pop increases.

Demos (after CFC):
[Image: ISDG-T104-post-cfc-demos.jpg]

Score table

TeamScore changePopTechLand
RB1515 (+6 pop; 59 total)
WPC99 (+13 tiles; 79 total)
Spanish33 (+1 pop; 24 total)
Apolyton55 (+2 pop; 37 total)
Germans22 (+1 pop; 34 total)
CivFr137 (+3 pop; 51 total)6 (ancient)
CivPlayers257 (+3 pop; 35 total)18 (Theology)
Univers55 (+2 pop; 52 total)

Score analysis

There are 12 new pop according to F8, but this might be borked due to CFC's probable capture of a barb city (it will probably sort ifself out T105). We have 13 land tiles to assign from T84. The total score change on turn roll was 62. Tentatively, 30 score is due to pop and 9 to land, leaving 23 to tech.

GNP analysis shows that one of our neighbours researched Theology, fitting with the notification on Christianity being founded. With only known land to partition and mostly modest score increases, this is pretty easy to work through.

WPC: Was the rival worst in land on T83, and the global increase and the rival worst increase to T84 were both 13 tiles. Confirmed as rival worst in population, and their cities are size 6, 3x5, 2, and 1. (Weirdly enough, Kalin's python script didn't come up with this solution - I had to play with the numbers myself.)

CivFr: Researched an ancient tech in 2t. I pencil in Mediation for now - they have all the ancient techs but one now, but their tech path is quite tentative.

CivPlayers: The only team with a score increase fitting a medieval tech. Tlaxcala grew to size 4, and they grew another 2 pop.

Power analysis

Global power increased with 43000. Rival best (Germans) increased with 1000, and rival worst with 1000 also (probably still CivPlayers).

Power from pop increased with 1000 for the Spanish, Apolyton, the Germans, CivFr, CivPlayers, and Univers, and probably with 3000 for CFC. That leaves 34000 from other causes. APTmod reports no changes in power to the Germans or CFC other than those caused by pop.

CFC's new cities

CFC had two score increases after the turn rolled, one of 10 and one of 2. I do not have the start-of-turn demos, but I can tell the following:

The claimed land only increased with 7 tiles this turn, and CFC passed Univers in the number of claimed land tiles (Univers held 142 on T100, and at least 144 on T102). This makes me believe that all of it was claimed by CFC.

CFC had a large infusion of cash: +172g from last turn. In comparison, their previous best cash increase was at +72g on T55, and that one was likely failgold. Using values from the last few turns they are at +54 / -84, compared to our +106 / -115. And that's not including their most recent cities, while our values do.

Thus I think CFC managed to capture a size 5 barbarian city, now at size 4. That's quite a coup for CFC. Once I get the start of turn demos, I should be able to confirm this.
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CivPlayers whipped away 5 pop (3x1 and 1x2) before ending their turn. They are confirmed as the rival worst in power.

The whips were 6->4, two 4->3, and one 3->2. Tlaxcala and Xochicalco were two of the whipped cities.

CityT102 queueT103 queueT104 queue
Tlaxcala232972
Xochicalco262867

My take on it is that this is a stable in Xochicalco, and a granary in Xochicalco.

The trade routes have shifted too, I see. We get more income than earlier, and the rival worst (probably the Germans) increased too (from -24 to -20), but the average decreased (-4 to -5). No idea what's up with that.
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(February 20th, 2013, 11:15)kjn Wrote: The trade routes have shifted too, I see. We get more income than earlier, and the rival worst (probably the Germans) increased too (from -24 to -20), but the average decreased (-4 to -5). No idea what's up with that.

Someone somewhere signing an open borders forcing the engine to recalculate trade routes perhaps?
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