[SPOILERS] Woden and ljubljana like boats

[ljubljana]

It's also worth pointing out that while we do get more time for ships if the cities hold out longer, Russia gets something in return - the longer the cities stand, the more Russia can grind for frigate promotions, and our odds will get significantly worse if they have LoB on all their frigate fleets. I do not think that is a net positive trade for us if we are not killing ships in return, especially since Russia can use the extra time to reinforce as well.

[ljubljana]

Turn 167 - Phoenicia

Well, I did my best:



The one thing I couldn't justify was sticking another frigate in there next to Oasis of Dawn where the caravel fleet is now, which would have done 5-10 damage to the walls and then died on Kaiser's turn to the city range strike + caravel. With the current positions, all my ships should be safe, since Kaiser moves before williams and therefore shouldn't be able to attack the one non-fleet ship with the OoD caravel. I think FK should be yours this turn, and next turn I will have 5 attacks against the OoD city center, with the highlighted ship able to attack at range 3. I might need your berserker corps up there to finish the job, though, so you may want to move it back onto the iron hill this turn if you think it would survive the city attack.

AS is at 16 loyalty, losing 11/turn, by the way. I think that will come down when you take Fort Krasia and give us an extra turn, since one size 3 Kaiser city shouldn't be enough to exert the maximum 20 points of population pressure, even with me in a dark age. If I am wrong about that, the city might flip, but that's not the end of the world since it is nearly worthless due to small size, poor terrain, and lack of a Cothon.

Williams merged a ton of fleets this turn, ominously. I also spotted the Australian fleet down by Fort Miln, in another sign that it could be their initial target.

[Woden]

Turn 167-Vikings

Short report, might have more later. We get a look at what Russia has planned...
   

About what we were expecting. Not sure how much more is in the fog. I think his objective is going to be to go for either Heimdall or Freya and land those Corsairs to pillage.

Question now is, do you want first strike on his forces. I think he moved up a turn early and you can get into position to first strike him on T169. I don't think we should worry about Australia's production bonus, they are bound to get it anyways and kill a few ships might be worth it. It would mean you bring your fleet south this turn so you can strike next turn. 

What do you think? I am cool either way.

Edit: Also, Russia cleared out by Oasis of Dawn, so you should be able to take the city on your turn. No need to wait for me to pillage the mine.

[ljubljana]

Wait, I think that's actually much less than I, at least, was expecting. Just 21 ships is no more than 2k milpower, where is the other half of their navy? I have a sinking feeling that the answer is in the east, about to help Australia blast through our Japanese conquests... It could also be in the fog NE of Balder, in which case I'll be in big trouble if I move my fleet down.

Other than that worry, though, I'm happy to bring my ships down for a potential first strike, but not sure we should declare on them. If they are going for your core cities and bypassing the city states initially, that to me implies that the Australia bonus is not as automatic as we might assume. It may be worthwhile to force them to actually stop and spend time to take one of your Medieval Walls cities to get the bonus, which means dividing their forces or deviating from their intended plan. If they go for Balder, moreover, they will be in a good position for a counterattack while doing so.

But we can also wait and see how many ships are killable next turn before making a decision. Australia is surely running Press Gangs, so the additional +100% hammers from the boost is an effective 3/2 multiplier to ships produced, and I imagine most of their cities are doing 6ish-turn caravels at this point. With 8ish cities, that is roughly 1.66 * 8 ~= 13 ships they can make every 10 turns, so we can probably peg the value of the boost at roughly 7-8 ships, though those extra ships would be be built over 10 turns and not all at once.

Do you have ironclad upgrades prepared and ready to go, by the way? This seems like the point where we should dump our entire treasury to get as many ironclad fleets up between the two of us as possible, with at least one of those coming from me to boost my CS strength. I actually think Russia messed up by leaving that 2k gold in the bank - we probably want to get as close to 0 as we can and spend every last penny on ironclads.

[Woden]

Wait, I think that's actually much less than I, at least, was expecting. Just 21 ships is no more than 2k milpower, where is the other half of their navy? I have a sinking feeling that the answer is in the east, about to help Australia blast through our Japanese conquests...

He might have a significant land force. He did take most of the island where suboptimal settled all his city off the coast. He also may have army fighting around suboptimal's former capital. Not sure if it makes up the remaining MP but it could be a significant amount. Also, there is a fleet ironclad and a regular ironclad south of the island I just settled and a few ships hanging around former England/Japan. Other than some ships being held back for reinforcements and a few we can't see in the main strike force, this may be it.

Edit: We should count his coal that is hooked up. He didn't having any in storage, so he is using it all up. I see 3 ironclads in the screenshot plus 2 in the south. I think he has at least 2 mined coals, maybe more. He could have a few more ironclads lurking around or he might be building caravels that are auto-upgrading. I hope it is the latter and when they complete, he runs a deficit and we can get a CS advantage over them. It is -1 CS per resource you lack, so if you are missing 3 sources to maintain your fleet, all of your ships get a -3 CS that require that resource and they can't heal.

But we can also wait and see how many ships are killable next turn before making a decision. Australia is surely running Press Gangs, so +100% hammers from the boost is an effective 3/2 multiplier to ship cost, and I imagine most of their cities are doing 4-turn caravels like mine at this point. With 8ish cities, that is roughly 2.5 * 8 = 20 ships they can make every 10 turns, so we can probably peg the value of the boost at roughly 10 ships, though those ships will be be build over 10 turns and not all at once.

Remember, suboptimal razed much of Australia and some of the cities I can see are 3 to 5 population, except for a few. I don't know how developed his cities are. The Marshall Mathers LP doesn't even have any improved tiles. Also, I noticed both Russia and Australia don't have an income right now, meaning they are losing money every turn. From strategic view, it looks like Australia is working on harbors. Even if he can build ships, no knowing how long they can run a deficit while fighting 2 wars.

Do you have ironclad upgrades prepared and ready to go, by the way? This seems like the point where we should dump our treasury to get as many ironclad fleets up between the two of us as possible, with at least one of those coming from me to boost my CS strength.

I upgraded 9 this turn. I will have 3 more coal next turn to upgrade a fleet and regular caravel. Then, on T169 I will hook up 2 more sources and can start sending you some coal. I think we have a few turns before any of you cities are in danger but if you like, I can send you 2 coal next turn so you can increase your defensive strength.

[ljubljana]

I'm not sure how much of a land force he has - it's probably somewhat significant, but most of those sub cities on the central island were close enough to the coast that they were capturable with frigates and a token land force. As for sub's capital, I guess my scouting sword will likely find out in a few turns, but it has seen no sign of Russia there so far.

Note the choice of coursers, btw - I think this is significant. Russia may be planning to capture one of your mainland cities and upgrade them there to cossacks for pillaging, which would explain the missing ship upgrades. Probably not a great plan if so, though, as the navy we can see is likely too small and has too few ironclad fleets to defeat our homeland forces and take a city (I say, thereby guaranteeing that I soon come to eat these words...)

Good point about Australia, I revised my estimate downwards and it might still be an overestimate. But anyways, I still don't think it's worth declaring unless we can kill at least 4-5 ships with a first strike. If they don't have the boost yet, the CS will constitute untaken strategic objectives for Russia that could tempt them to divide their forces, a great outcome for us.

Sounds great re ironclad upgrades. I don't think there is much urgency in sending me gold unless you don't have enough caravel fleets to spend all your gold. If you have upgraded all your caravels and still have gold, though, I think sending me some is better than letting it sit in our treasury.

edit: How is milpower calculated for fleets? It is equal to just the sum of the base CS (ranged CS for frigates) for non-fleet units, right? I want to do an exact count of what's visible before I move my ships south into a possible first strike from the fog.

edit2: According to my understanding of how milpower works (and please correct that understanding if it's incorrect), this force represents:

3 ironclad fleets * 80 = 240 milpower
7 caravel fleets * 65 = 455 milpower
3 caravels * 55 = 165 milpower
3 frigate fleets * 65 = 195 milpower
5 frigates * 55 = 275 milpower
2 coursers * 46 = 92 milpower

That totals to 1422 milpower, barely a third of their total strength. I could be very wrong about how MP is calculated, or they could have a major ground force somewhere, but if neither is true, there should be a second fleet somewhere that is significantly larger than this one.

[Woden]

Also, I might buy a policy swap next turn, it will cost 300-350 gold and put in Bastions and War of Religion. I can get a policy swap on T169 but I think the +6 DS to my walled might be worth it. It would bring my frontline cities to a DS of 91-96 (versus 85-90). That extra 6 DS should reduce the damage by 30% or so if they attack the cities. MIght be worth it. I am not 100% sold on it, I still need to think about it.

Edit: Also, I checked the save and I can only see 2 coals that Russia has hooked up. Australia has a source mined but doesn't have the tech. It is also likely there is 1 source at suboptimal's former capital but I can't see anything in the half we have defogged and who knows if there is more on that big island.

[ljubljana]

Also, I might buy a policy swap next turn, it will cost 300-350 gold and put in Bastions and War of Religion. I can get a policy swap on T169 but I think the +6 DS to my walled might be worth it. It would bring my frontline cities to a DS of 91-96 (versus 85-90). That extra 6 DS should reduce the damage by 30% or so if they attack the cities. MIght be worth it. I am not 100% sold on it, I still need to think about it.

Yeah, I think let's wait and see how many of their ships are in range of your cities next turn before committing on this one. It hurts to give up a whole ironclad fleet for that, but it could be worth it, especially if they go for Heimdall.

edit: To rephrase, Russia's milpower is about equal to yours + mine, and I see about as many ships there for Russia as you have ships + berserkers, maybe a bit more. That means somewhere out there is a Russian fleet that is almost the size of my two fleets combined that we haven't seen any of yet...

edit: 2 coal sources for them is amazing news though. I do not know how Russia will get through your Embolon fleets even with a much larger navy, especially if we can manage to fight at points wide enough for you to deploy all the clads but not so wide as to let us get surrounded.

[Woden]

Also, I think he has both the Great Lighthouse and the dedication that adds +2 movement. I marked a GA last turn and it looks to have moved 8 tiles, it should be only able to move 5.

[ljubljana]

Also, I think he has both the Great Lighthouse and the dedication that adds +2 movement. I marked a GA last turn and it looks to have moved 8 tiles, it should be only able to move 5.

Great observation, thank you for that heads up. That means if I move my ships down at all they will be in first strike range...probably not a good idea with Russia able to see my entire fleet with their traders + missionaries... Maybe we just need to attack after they pick a target and thereby lock part of their fleet in place.

edit: Wait, they CANNOT attack us on their next turn, t168, correct? I am fairly confident about this, but if you are 100% absolutely confident, then I can move the ships down...