Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[haphazard1]

scooter,

I voted for Selrahc for mayor very early in the thread (post 14). Please add me to your tally.

This possible baner reveal is messy. If MJW is the actual baner, then he has not impressed with this move. From reading the WW1 thread, the baner is really only useful if he can out think (or maybe out double-think) the wolves. This early panicky move does not give me a lot of hope about that.

If MJW is a wolf trying to divide the villagers and draw out some villager power roles...very interesting move. The wolves would attack someone else, leaving MJW alone because they "don't want to risk wasting an attack on the Baner". Unless they get unlucky and are blocked by the real Baner, this would build MJW's credibility (sort of) without actually harming the wolves' plans at all. And they might get lucky and draw out a village power role.

Our Seer has to scry someone on Day 1 -- why not MJW? This will either confirm he is a jumpy Baner, who the Seer can then work with, or that he is a wolf. The Seer could not reveal this directly without risking Fire&Ice's fate, but that would be true of any Day 1 scry which revealed a wolf. So why not take the chance of proving he is the Baner and can become a trusted ally?

I am suspicious of Lewwyn for opposing scrying MJW, so I will cast my lynch vote for Lewwyn.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

As a rule, we should vote for someone who doesn't vote right away on the first day and waits for the crowds to pick a target, but doesn't mind stirring the pot to try and direct the crowd. Out of our top 6 posters to date, only one fits that description: Rowain.

[Selrahc]

I think MJW probably is the baner, but geeze. Jumpy much?

I'm glad people aren't voting for MJW as mayor. I'm not sure I trust his decision making at this point! And ultimately, that is what you're voting for. Someone who you wouldn't mind breaking ties for you.

I'll push the Dantski wagon a bit more as well. Close days reveal more info, even on day 1. I might change that vote later.


I'll also add this gameplay note. Fire & Ice should really post up the villager role PM to the first post. Otherwise we can establish villager bonafides by asking for information from the role pm(Seventh word, number of letters, number of words etc.). I was a hairs breadth away from doing just that, but on reflection I think that is exploitative, in a "makes the game less fun" way rather than a "cunning scheme" way.

EDIT: Selrahc for mayor!

[uberfish]

As a rule, we should vote for someone who doesn't vote right away on the first day and waits for the crowds to pick a target, but doesn't mind stirring the pot to try and direct the crowd. Out of our top 6 posters to date, only one fits that description: Rowain.

Actually there's someone else who fits the description:

Didn't vote right away, check
Waited for a bandwagon, check
Directing the crowd, check

Selrahc -> Mr. Nice Guy

[Sandover]

Let's assume that our seer would scrye MJW and identify that he really is the baner. He / she (are there any in this game? ) could then make contact to him and start a cooperation. Basically we would then have a hidden seer + baner who can be the public voice of the seer and announce the findings, while protecting himself from a wolf kill. Sounds good to me at least!

And how are we supposed to know MJW is acting as the voice of the real seer rather than making things up? The devil can also screen people, so we could even end up with a fake baner gaining credibility. Not good.

Which one do you think is more valuable, Seer and a villager working together, or Seer and Baner working together?

If MJW is really the baner he has to protect himself to avoid getting killed, so he isn't more useful to the seer than a normal villager at this point. The best thing for the seer to do would be trying to find the masons for that sweet two-in-one deal, and there's no way he'll do that by scrying MJW.

I admit that our possible Baner might be a bit panicly, but think about a situation where the village would have a Mayor Baner that is immunie to wolf kills. Again sounds pretty good to me, so why do you think that the worst idea ever is our Seer having a knowledge about this?

Imagine this scenario: We elect MJW major. The seer then screen him during the night and find out he's really a wolf. We now end up in a situation where a wolf is major and the lone seer, who is the only one who knows about it, can't tell anyone without revealing himself. The seer don't even have someone to speak to about it since, well, he used his scry on MJW...

I find Meiz and Rowains arguments to be very illogical. I'd like to suggest that they're both wolves trying to convince the seer to waste his scry on MJW since they know he isn't a wolf. I'm also going to point out that haphazard1 is a possible third wolf considering the way he steps in to support them and throw a vote on Lewwyn, who have done nothing but support my notion.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Actually there's someone else who fits the description:

Didn't vote right away, check
Waited for a bandwagon, check
Directing the crowd, check

Selrahc -> Mr. Nice Guy

Not to be pedantic, but my vote for Ug was the 5th vote of the game. And my vote for Rowain was the 4th such vote. That certainly could be considered bandwagoning, but hardly directing a crowd when I am merely a member of the crowd.
To summarize, fit only one point in that description. However, this shouldn't be about me because I'm a generic villager. Our discussion should focus on people who fit all three categories. You showed in the first game that you are a smart player, Uberfish, so I'd like to open the floor for you to suggest other options?

[haphazard1]

And how are we supposed to know MJW is acting as the voice of the real seer rather than making things up? The devil can also screen people, so we could even end up with a fake baner gaining credibility. Not good.

How can you ever know the voice of the real seer? You can't (unless you ARE the seer, of course!) You have to watch the results produced and judge whether you trust the information you have.

I agree the possibility of a fake baner is a big problem, which is why MJW should be scried. Or lynched, I guess, but I am not yet sure enough to risk that.

If MJW is really the baner he has to protect himself to avoid getting killed, so he isn't more useful to the seer than a normal villager at this point. The best thing for the seer to do would be trying to find the masons for that sweet two-in-one deal, and there's no way he'll do that by scrying MJW.

Does MJW need to protect himself? Why would the wolves (assuming he is not a wolf himself) risk a failed attack? They would miss out on a kill and confirm MJW's role beyond any doubt. I would think the wolves would attack just about anyone else this first night. Later nights they might chance it, in the hope of catching the Baner while he was protecting someone else. But since there is not (yet) anyone else obvious who needs protection, I think MJW is about as safe as possible right now.

Imagine this scenario: We elect MJW major. The seer then screen him during the night and find out he's really a wolf. We now end up in a situation where a wolf is major and the lone seer, who is the only one who knows about it, can't tell anyone without revealing himself. The seer don't even have someone to speak to about it since, well, he used his scry on MJW...

The Seer has a 30% chance of scrying a wolf, just from a random pick. This produces exactly the situation you describe, without the benefit of revealing whether MJW is actually the baner or not. So as I said earlier, why not scry MJW?

It is true that MJW is (almost) certainly not a Mason. But if your entire strategy is for the Seer to hope (10% chance) to scry a Mason...this village is likely doomed.

I find Meiz and Rowains arguments to be very illogical. I'd like to suggest that they're both wolves trying to convince the seer to waste his scry on MJW since they know he isn't a wolf. I'm also going to point out that haphazard1 is a possible third wolf considering the way he steps in to support them and throw a vote on Lewwyn, who have done nothing but support my notion.

And now I am accused of being a wolf.

Scrying MJW either finds a wolf (useful info) or confirms the Baner so the Seer and Baner can work together (very useful info). Scrying someone random either finds a wolf (useful info, but not as useful as revealing MJW as a wolf-pretending-to-be-the-Baner) or a villager (varying levels of usefulness, but all probably less useful than confirming the Baner).

At least that is how I see it. I am a complete noob at this game, however.

[Sandover]

As for the major election, I just found the quote I was looking for:

I'd rather vote for a candidate who didn't actually put themselves forward than for one who nominated themselves for joke reasons.

I agree with this. I figure someone requesting to be major is just as likely to be a wolf as he is villager, so I believe we should vote for someone who hasn't made a request. That would give us better odds of electing a villager, since we are in majority.

Abiding to my own logic I'd definitly vote for sunrise rather than selrahc, but I'm going to promote Lewwyn for now since he's at the top of my personal "likely to be innocent"-list at the time being.

[scooter]

I find Meiz and Rowains arguments to be very illogical. I'd like to suggest that they're both wolves trying to convince the seer to waste his scry on MJW since they know he isn't a wolf. I'm also going to point out that haphazard1 is a possible third wolf considering the way he steps in to support them and throw a vote on Lewwyn, who have done nothing but support my notion.

I think it'd be sheer lunacy for half of the wolves to all agree with each other so obviously on day 1. Can't imagine that's what's going on here. I find your theory that the seer shouldn't test MJW to be more suspicious than what they're saying anyways.

[haphazard1]

I agree that the faction opposing scrying MJW is suspicious. Add Sandover accusing me of being a wolf, and now pushing Lewwyn for Mayor, these two have risen to the top of my personal suspicion list.