Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Let me make sure I understand the events here correctly:
*A couple of votes go against MJW
*MJW freaks out and makes his baner claim, which the village accepts begrudgingly.
*The debate over scrying MJW establishes Rowain as a suspect, and Dantski gets suspected for being quiet
*Roland writes his epic series of novels titled "vote for Sandover"
*Sandover gets dogpiled
*Sandover claims to be the baner

Is that right? Did we really have that crazy of a first day? And now I have to make my vote before the deadline, as I'll be out shopping for the rest of the day cycle. The problem is I don't know who to believe. But the good thing is I know who I don't believe: Sandover.

If I was the baner (and hey, it's in fashion, so now I'm the baner! ) I would not move my vote away from the person laying claim to my role. Sandover did that. The logic and reason behind others' Sandover votes is sound too, but more than anything else, it is Sandover's own actions that has led me to place my final vote in his name.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Because I still don't trust Selrec and the only person's that are likely to get lyched are me and sandover I have to vote for Sandover.

The PM said that I'm a banner so ether Sandover is a wolf or he/me is a fool banner. He could also be a godfather who wants to be scryed and found out good.

I panicked because this is my first Mafia game and no one else was a suspect at that time. Sandover with little time left will be the lych target.

[Dantski]

just FYI, the one PM Roland sent me didn't include the name of who he was voting for or anything related to 'tactics'. I could also post the PM if Roland agrees and people care to see it if thats whats desired.

Sandovers baner claim seems like a desperate move, is it any more desperate than TT in WW1 though?

Either

1. MJW is the baner and Sandover is a wolf
2. MJW is the baner and Sandover is the fool who's told he's the baner.
3. MJW is a wolf and Sandover is the baner
4. MJW is a wolf and Sandover is also a wolf
5. MJW is a wolf and Sandover is the fool
6. MJW is the fool and Sandover is the baner
7. MJW is the fool and Sandover is a wolf.

Did I miss any?

I think 4 is unlikely, at this point I expect one of them to be the real baner. Perhaps this is naive and the real baner is still out there keeping quiet, but I just don't see 2 wolves putting themselves at risk like this.

2, 5, 6 and 7 can all be discounted if the fool role doesn't exist

MJW hasn't managed to inspire much confidence in him so far and Sandover has isolated himself somewhat and isn't too interested in debating with Roland about his credibility. I'd expect the real baner to really fight his corner hard not give up so easily. MJW while not having the best game already would probably try harder and have more fighting spirit in the same position I reckon so I'm definitely leaning towards believing him at present.

However its too risky like others have said to lose the baner already, so lets keep the noose loose for now and we can return to this when we have more information

[Serdoa]

I guess thats decided already now Dantski. 9 votes on Sandover - I will just hope that you guys are right and he is a wolf.

Though nonetheless I'll cast my vote now on the only other canditate and the one who, no matter if wolf or villager, is the least helpful simply by not playing with us: Sareln

[Sareln]

*Yawn*, good morning, oh look I have votes, oh they're not for mayor... . I was wondering how long it would take people to comment that I was being as quiet, if not more quiet, than Dantski. I've just been super-busy this last day or so and as the thread got longer and longer, it became more of an investment to do the reading to make a solid contribution, so I kept quiet instead beyond my check-in and posted elsewhere on the forum, FfH mod stuff mostly (which you should go check out and comment on, need more data , yes that was a shameless plug).

Sorry about the lack of participation, I'll hopefully be better now that midterms are done for the time being.

[Roland]

I've already been over this. IT WAS FAIRLY LIKELY HE WOULD GET REVEALED AS A WOLF WITHOUT THE SCRY, EITHER THROUGH ME GETTING A SCRY OR MY BEING ABLE TO CONVINCE THE VILLAGE OF HIS GUILT ONCE HE SLIPPED UP.

Ok, first off - try to remain calm. I can understand your position, and the inherent frustration that entails, but getting yourself too worked up won't help you. The best thing you can do is remain calm and rational, and defeat logic with logic.

On that note, while I agree with the sentiment that he would, eventually, be found out to be either who he says he is, or not, it still doesn't change the fact that no one would know about it, least of all with certainty, for some time.

It's "baner".

b) I wanted to make it look like I was the seer trying to hide by making suggestions for what the seer should do, so that the wolves would try to kill me (like how they went for fire&ice in ww1) and get blocked by my protection.

No, it's not "baner". It's Seer, as per what I highlighted above - your own words. I wasn't confusing the two; I was refuting a point you tried to raise, regarding your desire to be seen as the Seer. Nothing more.

An easy slip-up - not indicative of anything. Just clarifying, for you and everyone else who reads this. Take a bit more time to go over things, and maybe you'll find better defenses for yourself? Just a thought - I don't think you're nearly as incompetent as you're making yourself out to be.

And I didn't expect you would, because honestly, I think you're the mastermind who set MJW up for this task. You saw the chance to get someone innocent lynched while gaining a huge credibility increase, and you took it. You accused me because I set bandwagons in motion, yet now, when your very own bandwagon is about to take down the baner you're even more convinced I'm a wolf? You probably have villagers sending you private messages already, because they are convinced from your skillful writing alone that everything you say make sense. I won't ever win an argumentation against you. No chance. You're many levels above me. But that is what I think.

Worst part is they will probably still peg you as innocent even after leading the mob to lynch me, because you're just so damn convincing.

Even more bold claims, but where's your proof? Actually, scratch that word - there is no such thing as "proof" at this point. Semantics, but important. Where's your evidence? Up until this point, I don't think anyone had any reason to believe you were the Baner, nor the Seer, despite how you've tried to paint yourself as both roles now (you tried to be seen as the Seer; now you claim, voraciously, to be the real Baner).

As for seeing a chance to get someone lynched, that was far from cut and dry. It was long, drawn out, well thought-out, and carefully analyzed from all perspectives I could imagine - and I did my very best to make the whole process, and the reasons behind it, as transparent as possible. This is far more than you have done up to this point, and a huge reason why some people are far more inclined to trust me than you.

You're right about one thing, though: I have had people whisper to me in private. I've done likewise. I've engaged people out of the blue, and been engaged by others out of the blue. I've done everything in my power to be as obviously honest as possible - everyone here is free, and indeed encouraged, to try to find fault with my reasoning. That's the whole point of all of this - to discuss things, and find the true 'Wolves.

Is speaking in private an indication of guilt? I hardly think so. I could level the same accusation against you, but to what end? It does no good. It solves nothing. I only respond here to continue as I always have - being transparent, honest, open, and forward-moving. Throwing around wild, unfounded accusations - even if they end up proving out - only serves to muddy the waters at this point. That is, in all honesty, the last thing we want to happen for the Village - even more for you!

You don't think you can win an argument against me? At this point, I agree - because you haven't honestly tried. If you have, well... forgive me, but I think you can do better. I'm not trying to berate you - indeed, I'm trying to motivate you. You SHOULD be able to defend against my accusations better than this. If not... well, are you really helping the Villager's cause? Forget your own cause. What value do you bring to the table, if you can't engage in positive discourse with someone else?

Can't you see how he's making it sound like he's the leader of the whole damn village already?

I'm going to assume this is directed at me, so I'm going to answer it under that assumption. If I'm wrong, speak up, please.

I don't think I'm the leader of the village. In fact, when people started to vote for me as Mayor, I was honestly surprised - flattered, and honored, even. However, being Mayor is, at least in terms of game rules, far from being a "leader" role in the Village. His entire function is to serve as arbiter, not leader. Beyond that, people have sided with me for their own reasons. I laid out my thoughts, and the reasons behind them, in as clear and complete (sometimes too much so, for some people's taste!) a manner as I can muster. A few who sat on the fence, I reached out to try and persuade to follow along with my vote - when they've openly voiced their... not quite support, but at least consideration for my points. I've been approached by others, in private, for the very reason that they found my arguments logical, sound, and - wait for it - open. They could follow along with my train of thoughts, and see how I came to my conclusions. They felt (and I would agree here, were the situation reversed) that I cannot possibly be a 'Wolf, because of the very fact that I'm too transparent. Risky? Perhaps, but if I continue to act as I have in the past, I will quickly out myself as a 'Wolf - if I actually am one, as you say.

I'll cut this right to the bone: I've suspected MJW of foul play since the very beginning. I don't think I'm alone in this. When he came out as the Baner, it didn't alleviate that suspicion - it increased it. However, when enough time had gone by, I had to give him the benefit of the doubt NOT because I believe him, but because the risk was too great of lynching our Baner on the first round. With that in mind, I went back to square one, going over my suspects list one by one, gradually narrowing it down to the most likely candidates, based upon the evidence at hand. Eventually, and very subtly, it all clicked into place who my #1 suspect was: you, Sandover.

Your every action from that point on has only further cemented my belief that you are a 'Wolf. I can understand your desperation and frustration - I truly can. I can honestly say, however, you are sinking your own ship here, at least in my eyes.

There's only two hours left at this point, so I'm going to do my best to stay as involved as possible up to that point. I'm still not convinced Sandover is who he says he is. I am, however, increasing my suspicion towards MJW - furthered by this, by my previous suspicions, and by the fact that once he established himself as "safe" he has essentially disappeared off the radar.

Villagers, we shall have to come to some form of consensus soon. I'll do my best to throw the rest of my thoughts out in the open before the end of the day.

[scooter]

I wondered earlier why scooter mentioned that he knows that Roland hoped for his vote on Sandover - did I overread something in the thread or was that a private conversation between you two? If you are really already on day 1 trying to setup a lynching in private then I am inclined to believe Sandover.

Roland sent me a PM asking for my support, which I did not respond to in private... So no there was no conversation, but from what I understand, Roland has been sending out PM's lobbying for support for his Sandover vote. I"m not sure how I feel about that kind of thing happening on day 1 honestly... It's why I chose not to respond to the PM in private, and rather responded in public. I would have posted the PM here, but that'd be against the rules, so I'm just summarizing. Anyways...

I think the wisest course of action at this point is to lynch neither MJW nor Sandover, as it's just too big a risk to loser our baner. It's mind boggling to me that some people are still voting for Sandover (one on MJW). Roland nearly had me convinced that he was a villager, but his opinion that we need to stick with voting for Sandover now looks highly suspicious. Why on earth would we take a chance? I mean it seems likely that either MJW or Sandover is a wolf, but why on earth would we take the chance and lynch the wrong one?? If we lose our baner on day 1, we are in much worse shape than WW1 was when they lost their seer day 1. If the baner is dead, the wolves can kill whoever the heck they want all game long, and no special roles can come forward because they'll just get eaten instantly.

At this stage, anyone still voting for MJW or Sandover should be viewed as suspicious. The wise course of action is to let both of them live and have the seer check them both out. Sounds crazy, but right now we can ignore both of them - the baner isn't really important until the late rounds... Since the wolves have to know for 100% sure who the baner is by now, the true baner will simply protect himself for the next 3-5 days, and honestly we can let this situation work itself out later. Keep an eye on voting records, and the seer will know the truth, so once the seer comes public (which should wait for awhile), we'll know the truth and then it'll be easy. Let's focus on other avenues now instead.

[Roland]

just FYI, the one PM Roland sent me didn't include the name of who he was voting for or anything related to 'tactics'. I could also post the PM if Roland agrees and people care to see it if thats whats desired.

Dantski, you have my full support to post any PMs I've sent you. That goes ditto for anyone else (I don't recall your names at the moment, despite it being only a few). If anyone feels I am untrustworthy due to my actions behind the scenes, let them call for the outing of my conversations, and let each who has spoken with me decide for themselves whether they want to share. Everyone whom I have spoken with in private has my consent to post what I have said.

I want no unnecessary suspicions cast upon anyone. I made some moves behind the scenes based upon the information I had laid out in public. Nothing was said to anyone in private that differed from what I said in public. I only reached out to a few select people whom I had reason enough to attempt to converse with.

[Meiz]

Now that we have two Baners out, it is possible to read both MJW's and Sandovers messages with a bit different mentality. I'd suggest everyone to do that, and try to find some clues of the truth. I've tried to do that with best of my abilities, and I'm actually starting to change my mind regarding Sandover.

So let's start with him, assuming that he really is the Baner.

Imagine this scenario: We elect MJW major. The seer then screen him during the night and find out he's really a wolf. We now end up in a situation where a wolf is major and the lone seer, who is the only one who knows about it, can't tell anyone without revealing himself. The seer don't even have someone to speak to about it since, well, he used his scry on MJW...

My point was that, if MJW is a wolf, the devil could feed him correct information about the roles of some people, to make MJW look credible in a situation where he'd claim to have contact with the seer. My gut is telling me isn't a wolf, though.

He is already drawing out the scenario of a wolf MJW being the trusted "Baner" of the villagers and a Devil in the background, giving his accusations some credibility. He had quite vocal suspicions of the same situation in the previous conversations. It's quite possible that he is just trying to warn us with best of his abilities, without giving too much away (as in, not looking too sure to be identified as the real Baner).

Assume MJW is a wolf. Then there is one villager who knows this, i.e. the real baner. Assume someone else is a wolf, how many would know about it? That's right, none. So confirming MJW as a wolf is actually less useful than finding another wolf, since there is already someone who can confirm MJW being a wolf (either by being scryed and telling the seer, or by being lynched or killed during the night).

At this point in time our chances of exposing MJW as a wolf is greater than exposing anyone else as a wolf, so why not look for the ones that are harder to find while also having a decent shot for the seer to hook up with the masons?

Yes, it is a waste (scrying MJW /Meiz). Glad more people agree with me.

These comments actually make great sense if Sandover is certain that MJW is a wolf. Of course he does not wan't the Seer to scan MJW, because he already knows the truth. He'd rather like the Seer to find allies on day 1, or if really lucky, find him.

He is really underlining the fact that MJW can be identified as a wolf later, without Seer's help. Again he also mentioned this several times before, trying really hard to convince us.

---

Ok, let's take a look at some of MJW's posts. We all know that he is really clumsy with his statements, so let's assume that he is a very clumsy wolf. For the rest of the wolfs: I'm going to laugh my ass off if that really is the case! . But you would deserve it for the killings and other nasty stuff!

I vote for Luddite because I think he is a villager and he is smart. I think he is a villager because of his fast and truthful reponse. He would make a good mayor.

Luddite's reponse was also something I feel a scum would not say and came within 5 minutes within Selrec's post.

He sounds so sure of Luddite's innocense! Because he knows it and is trying to build a clumsy cover?

You guys should check out the begaining of the thread when I made the GM spoil the fact there was a devil.

If fire&ice made a game without devil I would feel sorry for the PLAYERS on the evil side because the game under the rules I first saw was outragouesly inbalanced. It would be super-aggersive for a wolf to make the mod spoil the fact that there was a devil.

"Hey, you guys should check what I said previously! No wolf would ever do that!"

I'm really struggling on how anyone could be so obvious, but we all know the way he has posted and made accusations. This screams to me as a (very bad) wolf play.

Because Selrahc posts more I trust him more than sunrise now. I change my vote to him.

About who I should protect it becomes a guessing game. I think the payoff matrix is to protect myself 70% of the time, the mayor 25% of the time and someone else 5% of the time. I think Sunrise and Selrach are villagers but there is still a chance they are wolfs.. Does this seem off to you people?

Is he again building a clumsy cover with the Mayor switches? Maybe suggesting that sunrise and Selrach really are villagers (not big enough evidence now, but will be handy if he really is a wolf).

I think Dantski is very likely to get modkilled so I think any lych vote for him runs into danger of being a waste. You should just vote for Sandover if you think his idea is a lie. To me every is feels that they are telling the truth expect for Rowain because of what Mr. Nice Guy said.

Votes are now started to swing away from him to Rowain and Sandover. He is immediately giving his "useful" insight on who the suspects are.

The Dantski/Rowain is clear. If you think Rowain acts wolfish like I and some other people do you should vote for him. If you think that he did not act wolfish you should vote for Dantski for reasons C-head outlined. He would be a weak villager and a very annoying wolf.

Yep, let's throw Dantski's name in the mix as well! (he had already started to receive many votes from others at this point)

If I somehow become mayor I would likely just vote whatever the confrimed seer does.

This comment is after Sandover has painted the scenario of a fake Baner and Devil working together. Replace "confirmed seer" with Devil, and we have MJW slipping up again with the possible master plan

The reason why I think Rowain statements where odd is because they felt like their where trying to lych me and not find a wolf.

This comment is for Rowain wanting that MJW is scanned. So Rowain wants our seer to confirm the truth of MJW, and possibly start to cooperate with the Baner, but MJW thinks it as an attempt to get him lynched. Quite strange, because I would imagine the Baner would really like to work with the Seer!

---

This is how I see it at the moment. But please read Sandover's and MJW's posts with "wolf glasses" and then with "baner glasses" and draw out your own conclusions.

Unfortuantely the clock is ticking and we are running out of time... I don't think we should make any hasty decisions regarding the vote of the possible Baner! We can easily continue this discussion and make a final decision on the next daytime. Sandover and MJW are not going to disappear anywhere! So I'm going to keep my vote for Sareln, and urge everyone else to hold of their votes for either one of the "Baners", for now!

Roland, I find it really odd that you state not liking the 50/50 odds of lynching the Baner, but yet you are still voting for Sandover. Why the rush?

[scooter]

Roland, you are really coming across like zakalwe from WW1. Zakalwe repeatedly asked TT to explain himself, and TT actually did explain himself quite nicely, and zakalwe kept asking for him to explain himself. I'm seeing the same thing unfolding here, except now that you're voting for a guy on day 1 who claims to be the baner, I'm a lot less inclined to think you're even a villager. If a guy claims to be the baner (of all roles too), we'd better have a whole lot of reason to lynch him. This is the exact reason everyone took their votes off MJW - we knew we need a lot of evidence to prove he's lying in order to take the chance that he's telling the truth.

Sandover is the same. I'm afraid that we've got a bandwagon of wolves who played this perfectly. They threw out their "panicky baner" who somehow panicked after getting 3/21 votes (for real?), and now they are driving to kill the real guy who was forced to reveal himself because the wolves happen to have a guy who is a novelist in real life (or something ).

I honestly have no idea, and I don't believe that theory with a ton of conviction, but that theory I just outlined is every bit as believable as the theories you've thrown out there, which is why we need to stay the heck away from MJW and Sandover today,and pick someone else. By voting for one of them, we are basically betting the game on the vote which is not something I want us to do on day 1. That's insane.