Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Ug the Barbarian]

Sorry, but I wholeheartedly disagree with this. I've explained this a few times, but I'll explain it again. For the first 2/3rds of the game, the baner is close to useless, as his chances of protecting someone is slim to none. The baner really matters in the late game - when we are down to less than 10 players... At that point, the seer and/or masons are likely to be publicly known, at which point it doesn't matter that much that MJW is known, because at that point, it's a guessing game for the wolves. Will MJW stick with himself, or will he protect the seer? All that matters is that MJW survives til the late game, and at that point he would definitely be useful.

Look, it worked out fantastic for us and I'm happy about that, but yes, an "outed" baner is still very very useful. Did you follow WW1? It was pretty well known in the last 2ish days that zakalwe was the baner, but he was still very useful and even scored a protection later on. Actually, in WW1 he spent almost the entire game protecting himself anyways, so what's the difference? Ask him - I'm pretty sure there was only once the entire game where he protected someone other than himself.

I say all that to say this - no, it's not suspicious that I would be worried about losing the baner. If you want to suspect me for some other reason, be my guest and we can discuss that as well. Thankfully the masses guessed right and we're in good shape, but being cautious is perfectly logical because the baner does matter quite a bit even if he foolishly gave himself away early on.

Hopefully that clears things up.

I see your reasoning and partially agree - although from MJW's play so far I have my doubts he will be anything like as useful as zakalwe was.

But I still think that postponing the vote would have attracted wolf interest as it would have been a bonus for them.

[Roland]

Phew! That was a nail-biter!

First off, let me just apologize for chickening out on my initial suspicions at the last second (see why I didn't ask to be the Mayor? ). I let raw emotion get in the way of solid logical reasoning, and it nearly cost me a 'Wolf kill. Not good! Not good at all. I was so sure, up until the last... 15ish minutes, actually, where paranoia was just starting to creep in. What ultimately convinced me to switch? MJW himself, ironically. His completely erratic behavior was gravely disturbing, and I was (out of exasperation - once again, emotion over reason) just about to the point where I was willing to lynch MJW entirely because of this behavior - and decided if I was wrong I'd lynch myself next! :D Thankfully, despite my last-minute trepidations, my original vision panned out, and my original intent came to fruition. Bravo, one and all!

For those who had faith in me, I thank you. You took a chance on me, at a time when I was as likely a 'Wolf candidate as anyone. For those who abandoned me after Sandover's last-ditch ploy.... shame on you! In all seriousness, though, I'm glad in a way - I'm sure we'll find at least one 'Wolf, perhaps only one, among the switchers. Regardless, I'm glad to see people thinking things out, in the open, and coming to conclusions based upon that, rather than relying solely on knee-jerk reactions and bandwagon swings. As for those who began to doubt me for continuing my suspicion on Sandover... well, I hope at the very least I've restored some of your faith in me. It was a long, very difficult battle, and it tested my every mettle. In a way, I failed, by not staying true to my convictions, but in a way it was still a victory.

1) It got us a 'Wolf kill.
2) It will, in the coming days, highlight who further likely 'Wolf suspects are.
3) It brought out a great deal of much-needed discussion towards the end of the day, with thoughts and ideas flying rampant, rather than just meaningless tallies on a board.

I intend to take a little break tonight, rest my nerves and my mind, and have a spot of dinner - I'm starving! Once that's settled, I intend to go over this whole thread again, and once more begin rebuilding my suspect list. Expect some periods of silence from me, with some further Walls of Text interspersed. :D (I had some sort of joke about the Walls in my head earlier, but for the life of me I can't remember it now... something about not being able to trust someone who posts Walls of Text, because Walls divide us, when we must band together... anyway, I thought it was funny, poking fun at myself. )

Just one quick question:
The Werewolves have a 24-hour Night cycle clock, yes? So I have until 4 PM tomorrow to make my thoughts known, before I find out whether I live or die?

[uberfish]

I can tell you that in the first game, wolves spent quite a lot of effort trying to root out the baner, and often went for a say a 3rd choice target in order to try and avoid the possibility of protection, allowing the people we really wanted to kill to live an extra day or two and build the villager network further. A failed kill is very bad for wolves because not only do they get one step further from victory, it confirms a villager. Also, the baner can act as a mouthpiece for the seer; it would have only taken 1 scry tonight to identify one of the two claimed baners as a non-wolf and start getting information out that way.

So yeah, I didn't want to take the chance of killing the baner either, especially as MJW was making himself look really bad towards the end of the day... and I'm aware my last minute vote will be considered suspicious given the outcome. Obviously I got it wrong, and I'm glad I didn't actually get Sareln killed in the end.

[luddite]

good job villagers!

[Lewwyn]

I am happy

1 down 5 to go

All things considered that was probably the game right there. If a villager is killed tonight, the ratios will be 14 to 5. If we had lynched a villager they would have been 13 to 6! The % of wolves would have gone up to 31%. Every day is critical. I think this reasoning will factor into our discussion of people's posts tomorrow.

[Cyneheard]

I am happy

1 down 5 to go

All things considered that was probably the game right there. If a villager is killed tonight, the ratios will be 14 to 5. If we had lynched a villager they would have been 13 to 6! The % of wolves would have gone up to 31%. Every day is critical. I think this reasoning will factor into our discussion of people's posts tomorrow.

Something to think about with that: so, assuming that the baner can't guess right out of 20 people, we'll be starting the day having a 9-villager majority to get 5 wolves.

Every lynched wolf = +1 to the majority
Every lynched or eaten villager = -1 to our majority

If the baner doesn't save someone during the night, then we break even: the moment the majority disappears, the wolves win, so that's the VC we have to pay attention to. But a bad lynch means we lose 2 of our 9-person majority, assuming that we don't get any baner protections ever. That limits us to only 4 bad lynches and still have us villagers win. Every 2 baner saves gives us room for one more bad lynch.

[Meiz]

I actually had to come work early to see the results...

It still baffles me that so many people were willing to bet on Sandover so quickly. I guess it's the same reason why I don't play lottery or go to casinos. But hey, I'm going to stop complaining now!

The night time actually feels like a vacation, which probably means that I might have to ease up a bit

[Rowain]

Indeed several hours of no vote counting and eager waiting to see whom the wolves attacked.

On the matter of walls of text. Should we post our thoughts now during the wolves time? On the one hand we run the risk to give them hints how to act OTOH dying during the night prevents you from posting the following day.

[Serdoa]

I was wondering in WW1 that they talked in the night but simply because I had assumed that we are not allowed to talk in the night - as far as I understand if you play the game at a party the villagers "sleep" in the night-time. Meaning if someone does get killed by the wolves he won't be able to tell what he thinks about the lynching at the day. I feel that we have an advantage - being allowed to talk in the night (or am I wrong and we are not allowed?) - and should use that before the wolves kill one of us.

[Dantski]

On the matter of walls of text. Should we post our thoughts now during the wolves time? On the one hand we run the risk to give them hints how to act OTOH dying during the night prevents you from posting the following day

I'm of the opinion that there's no reason to say much during this period, if you feel you have something important to say note it down somewhere else and bring it up in the next day phase. For one thing, what you want to discuss might be affected by who the wolves go after.