Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Kyan]

I think you might be a devil-wolf. You post less then Dantski!!!! I put your name in there so I could say that the Devil-wolf was waiting for his scry. But my cunning plan was ruined.

So you admit to fabricating evidence to try and get me lynched? Super.

Well I guess I have to put my money were my mouth is. Kyan does not post and never attacks anyone. This is typical wolf actions because ww1 showed that most ww don't post much and are not very aggersive.

I posted some of my thoughts at the start of the night period. You're saying that rather than go through the potential evidence (which, granted, would take considerable sifting) and trying to make a judgment call, you'd rather call me out for being non-aggresive??

I voted to lynch Sandover. Oh yeah, he was a wolf. Personally, i have my suspicions of Lewwyn but i'm going to collate some real evidence before making any firm decisions. I'll post these up tomoro and Lewwyn- i'd really appreciate your side of events if possible.

In other news the seer should contact me. I don't see why not. I'm not 100% sure of Roland but the last second shift was effectively a no vote anyway with such little time. If he was a wolf trying to lych me. The vote itself was meant nothing.

I'm sorry but i really want to believe you're the baner. In fact, i *did* believe it.

But, envisage this: the wolves decide to have two of their own guys battle it out, both claiming to be baner. Whoever survives becomes the most trusted guy in the village. Sure, he'll likely get eventually scryed but not for some time (oh yeah, Sandover was AGAINST scrying MJW...) and i bet you MJW gets plenty of PM's in that time. Maybe the name of a mason or two?

You haven't even been scried yet and you want the seer to contact you? Gah, i can't accuse you of being a wolf without coming accross as one myself but guys, seriously, read the evidence. If i'm way off here, please tell me but this smells fishy as hell to me.

[Dantski]

People need to keep in mind that there's no 100% proof right now that MJW is the baner. It might be that he's the fool baner or just a wolf in some elaborate (I perceive this as unlikely TBH) plan to get someone into a trusted position. Honestly though, if the wolves wanted to get one of their own into a trusted position, would they have picked someone who's somewhat of an unknown quantity when it comes to debating? I'm sure there were wolves that would've been able to pull off such a plan less suspiciously.

[Roland]

Lewwyn first didn’t vote to lynch me but critisized my plan to scan MJW then sandover jumped on and voted for killing me swiftly followed by Lewwyn. In the following hours MJW, Gaspar and Mr Nice Guy joined the bandwagon while haphazard agreed that the strong opposition to screen the selfclaimed Baner is suspect and voted for lynching Lewwyn.

Lewwyn has explained his reasoning - he believes in consensus. Note his posts:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=141

I actually believe Meiz is more wolfish, but I voted Rowain because, of those two, Sandover had voted for him. We need a consensus or the wolves will spread us out.

As for the bandwagoning. I fear it, but I think its necessary. We need bandwagoning as villagers. If there isn't then wolves can hold back their vote and simply tip the scales where they choose

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=156

I voted for Rowain over Meiz. These were my two personal choices. However, I suspect Meiz over rowain. Because of this Rowain has become more and more unlikely to me.
. . .
Sandover, Sandover, Sandover.... where to begin.
. . .
However, some of your reasoning about why is more suspect. Its like wanting to do the right thing for the wrong reason.
. . .
Now what I said about bandwagoning earlier. Villagers have to do it, even if it ends up that a villager is killed. Maybe its the equivalent of swinging for the bleachers, but this game is a homerun derby. You either get it right or you strike out. I have greater faith that Roland is a villager than Sandover... As such his choice of Sandover becomes more appealing than Sandover's choice of Rowain(and I've already said I suspect Meiz more than Rowain).

Forgive me Sandover if thou art a villager. I hope we can still be friends

[url=http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost.php?p=112995&postcount=141][/url]
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=169

I would like to point out something about Sandover's defense and switch however.
. . .
He was carefully still throwing a bit of dissension, and the Meiz vote was, I believe a calculated ploy to get me to change again. At the time that he posted the votes had only just started to build on him, mine being one of the most recent. If I change to Meiz with Sandover, maybe that stops the bleeding. It would at least reduce the votes on him. Afterall, at that point thats all he really needed. A couple votes off of him to keep Dantski ahead in the voting tally.

It was a nice play for my sympathies, but I'm actually more convinced of him now than I was.

As for my own defense. I accuse Meiz, but I don't vote for him, there are after all 6 wolves, I can have multiple suspects. As for the scanning of MJW... let me make a Civ analogy to explain how I feel about that. Scanning MJW instead of an unknown is akin to building a road to you second city before farming the corn tile. Its all bout getting ahead of the opponent by realizing whats more valuable.

I believe I had the slightest bit of suspicion (one of my typical "trace evidence" pieces) towards Lewwyn early on, however he gradually moved into the trusted group as time wore on. Aside from vehemently opposing scrying MJW (at least he gives his reasoning, and it does make sense - even if I still don't agree with it), he's done little to arouse anyone's suspicion, including yours. While initially he held you as a strong suspect, he's gradually moved away from that - yet here you are still tossing his name out as a suspect? Odd, but OK. Furthermore, he sided with me on a leap of faith (like several others), and did not switch back - directly leading to our first 'Wolf kill. If that's not enough for you to trust him, it was enough for me.

I'm not trying to criticize you here, Rowain, merely point out things as I see them. You're free to agree or disagree, and I realize you have little reason to believe anything I say at this point (we'll get to that soon enough), but that's not going to stop me from speaking my mind - as I've consistently done thus far.

It is to note that haphazard switched in the hectic day-ending time to the second proponent and did take part on the lynching of sandover.

Haphazard, because of his direct involvement in killing Sandover, has risen substantially on my list of trusted people - from a nobody to a somebody. I wouldn't stake my life on him, but if he's a 'Wolf, he's doing a damn fine job of covering it up. Having said that...

The following discussion between haphazard and sandover revealed following interesting jibes:
Haphazard: I agree that the faction opposing scrying MJW is suspicious. Add Sandover accusing me of being a wolf, and now pushing Lewwyn for Mayor, these two have risen to the top of my personal suspicion list.
Sandover: So your personal suspicion list is basically the opposite of my personal "likely to be innocent"-list?
Note that Lewwyn is on sandovers most likely to be innocent list right next to sandover himself and we know how innocent he was

See above. Lewwyn gradually moved away from Sandover, AND you, and eventually voted to lynch Sandover. He did not change his vote. He helped kill Sandover - when I myself chickened out at the last second. His faith in me was stronger than my own! If you want to condemn Lewwyn for something, condemn him for his ties with me - not Sandover. Yes, there is evidence in the early game that Lewwyn could have been working with Sandover, but that evidence became far less substantial as time wore on, and almost immaterial after we lynched Sandover - almost.

Just because of sandovers ‘friend list’ I’m still suspecting Lewwyn although he helped lynch sandover but perhaps that was just a failed plan (we talk about that soon).

Re-read my quotes of Lewwyn's posts, and tell me what makes more sense: an early attempt by the 'Wolves to try to kill two Villagers, that eventually leads to one of them being killed, or a coincidence of a Villager and a 'Wolf siding together for a short period of time, before the Villager smartens up and lynches the very person you're claiming was his partner? Honestly, which do you feel is a stronger case?

Or, another way to put it, what have the wolves gained by your theory? Assume Lewwyn is a 'Wolf. Assume he sold out his partner to gain our trust. How much have they gained when several people (if I'm not mistaken?) still suspect him of being a 'Wolf because of that play?

Very little, to me. Lewwyn had plenty of time to change things around to avoid selling out his "partner" without raising any more suspicion. He chose to stick to his guns and lynch what turned out to be a 'Wolf. Not really much you can argue against in that, in my opinion.

Now sandover suddenly claims to be the Baner too. And Roland after uttering some doubts retracts his vote. So far so good and reasonable. But as the clock ticked down he suddenly switched to lynch MJW our other proclaimed Baner. Had his trusted network voted with him the result would have been disastrous. Instead of catching a wolf we would have lynched our Baner!

Ah, and therein lies a hole in your logic. Let me address this little tidbit, since I gather this is at the heart of your suspicions of me (and, I gather, several others). However, on a personal note, let me say this: were I in your shoes, i.e. outside this little occurrence, I'd be suspicious of me too.

I've given some of my reasons as to why I switched last-moment, but let me reiterate and elaborate them.

1) As much as I was convinced Sandover was a 'Wolf, I could not ignore the idea that I could, potentially, be pushing to lynch our Baner. 50/50 odds, and all that. That's why I kept my vote on Sandover, and why I later shifted to a null vote.

2) When it came down to the last... what, 15 minutes? MJW starts a flurry of posts, throwing an immense amount of chaos into a carefully orchestrated plan (mine, to kill Sandover) - Red Flag #1. He moreover admits to questionable practices - damn near getting himself mod-killed for cheating, if I read it right - Red Flag #2. He had consistently, since day one, offered virtually nothing of any value, slinging accusations like a politican and flailing like a tree-swing in a hurricane between different targets - Red Flag #3. All of this, and more, raised him on my list from "Wary" to "Severe Suspect" - but his actions, directly, did not convince me of Sandover's innocence in any way. He rose in my list parallel to Sandover, instead of rising as Sandover fell (picture a scale). I never believed they both were 'Wolves, but suspicion towards one - for me - does not automatically lessen suspicion towards another. Not on its own, anyway.

3) Although MJW himself was the #1 reason I pulled off Sandover and voted for MJW at the end, one thing from Sandover planted a seed of doubt in my mind, one that took until the last half hour (maybe hour) for me to actually realize it:

I can do better, but what use is it when you use your shovel to place everything I say under a large pile of crap and the only things I've got at my disposal for removing said crap are my very hands? It's not fun standing in a pile of crap that's being constantly filled with more crap, so I rather keep my distance.

The raw emotional response triggered something in me, but it wasn't until the very end of the day that it actually had any effect whatsoever. It tipped off MY emotional side (which, I must admit, is very strong). His conviction at this point was very strong - he felt completely hopeless, sure that he was going to die. This on its own would never have made me change my vote, but let's look at the big picture, shall we?

- Time was running out, and my careful plan to kill a 'Wolf was completely thrown into chaos by his desperate move to save himself: claim to be the Baner. This sewed enough chaos and doubt to almost derail my entire plan - even in my own mind!
- MJW moved from a wary suspect / foolish ally to an incredibly strong suspect in a matter of minutes, at the very end of the day.
- Pulling my vote off Sandover may save him (buying us time to sort this sordid mess out, like many other people were advocating), but putting it onto MJW - with only a few minutes left to vote - would do nothing to condemn MJW. I knew he was safe - after all, no one else was going to follow me in this - and if it turned out MJW WAS the 'Wolf, I wanted to be the first one on his throat.
- I was constantly checking the vote tallies, both those posted and keeping my own tally, and I knew that pulling my vote off would neither save Sandover nor condemn Sareln - in other words, wherever my vote landed, it wouldn't matter, so who is my next highest suspect?

In the end, was it a bone-headed, irrational move to take my vote away from Sandover and put it onto MJW, spurred mostly by EMOTIONAL influence rather than LOGICAL? Absolutely. Did it cost me credibility? Oh ho, you bet it did. Do I regret it? Yeah, mostly... It almost instantly moved me from a prime Villager candidate to a prime 'Wolf candidate (something Sandover tried, and failed ). On the same token, though, I think (hope!) I've laid out my reasons enough to illustrate there was some logic and rationale to my decision, even if it was stupid, irrational, and EMOTIONAL.

If I could take it all back, I'd do everything over the exact same - except instead of switching to MJW from my null vote, I'd put it back on Sandover.

There are people that say someone who writes so crafty essays can’t be a wolf but isn’t the Devil known for his silver-tongue?

I can't decide if you're reiterating this because you wrote it originally, or because you're following the person who already stated this exact same thing - and if so, maybe you're trying to give this idea credibility through repetition. Either way, I personally find it worth noting - if only for curiosity's sake.

Roland now claims that he panicked and that MJW’s behaviour convinced him? Now did any of Rolands post strike you as one done from a man who easily panicks?

While I appreciate the vote of confidence inherent in this statement (yes, it's there), I must confess: I am human. Being infallible is certainly a nice thought, but it's not realistic. I may be fairly consistent - 95% of the time - but, again, I'm human. I'm allowed, because of that, to make mistakes. I made a big one here, but thankfully it didn't cost me anything except credibility, and made me a bigger suspect for some people. So be it. My actions from here on out are going to mirror my actions up to this point - save for that big red blemish that spawned your thoughts about me here in this post. Either I'll win back some credibility, or I'll become an even bigger target and find myself hanging from the gallows - at which point I'll be found a Villager, and everyone who voted to lynch me will suddenly become suspect. While I don't strive to be a martyr (hi Sareln!), if getting myself lynched leads to another 'Wolf kill - that's better than breaking even in my book. That's a win, no matter how you slice it.

Now, to address the rest of your thoughts.

Another interesting player is Gaspar: First he jumped on the BW against me then he followed Roland vs sandover and in the end he voted vs MJW

Curious, indeed. I don't have enough to really say much about this, except for the thoughts rumbling around in my head - nothing concrete or easily provable, just thoughts and ideas. I think he was fishing. His strongest posts are the ones following his last two switches - Sandover because of my eloquence, and MJW because of his lack thereof. As I've aptly demonstrated, that latter person convinced even me to switch - and you yourself said I don't appear to be a person easily swayed.

It's an eerie coincidence, no matter how you look at it, though. I have to give you that. All I can say is keep it in mind - maybe down the road it will lead to some worthwhile revelation. For now, though, it's not enough to prove anything - only worth noting.

Conclusio: My 3 current topsuspects(in order) are Roland, Gaspar and Lewwyn.

But despite the fact that somebody will hold it against me I will not cast my lynch-vote before Sunday especially as I like to hear their defense and it is my conviction that more talk is far better than silence.

I applaud you for your work here in this post. This is, by far, your best one to day. You explained all your reasons very well, citing quotes to back your theories, and then finish it off with your ultimate point. Bravo! This is exactly what we need. And, I must say, given the evidence you've provided, I would come to the very same conclusions about potential suspects (again, were I not in my own shoes). I have nothing more to add to what I've already said here (and, really, does anyone want me to at this point? ), so I'll simply leave it as it stands. When you return, you can make your own decision about me, and everyone else (and I'm personally interested in hearing what each of your other suspects has to say - more information is better).

TL;DR:
- I screwed up, by I don't intend to let it happen again. I'll work to earn back my credibility, or at least do my best to serve the Village should I end up killed.
- Gaspar is an unknown, so I have little to comment on, but I don't see enough evidence to support a theory of collusion on its own. Worth noting, and keeping an eye on.
- Lewwyn started off suspicious, but for me has moved safely away from that side. Not yet fully trusted, but well on his way.

(Happy now? )

[scooter]

Okay, so when I looked at fire&ice's last vote tally, I noticed he still had it wrong - someone hadn't voted... I thought this was odd. I figured out who it was, and I looked through his post history during this thread. What I found was disturbing - 3 out of his 4 post were 0 content posts, so he really only contributed one post. This post was actually almost entirely about himself and about how people - including myself! - were voting for him for mayor. It was sunrise089

Let's take a look at all 4 of his posts:

Krill

Gotta' keep up appearances right?

Checking in, and going to go ahead and add myself to the Selrahc bandwagon.

Okay so the first post was actually quite funny to me, and the second post was immediately afterwards, commenting on the joke. Two pretty irrelevant posts, but it was early. Next was after MJW outed himself as baner:

Eloquently put. He then says absolutely nothing for the next 20 hours. Hmmmm... When he does finally post, it was in response to someone saying they don't trust him as mayor. Here is sunrise's one and only post in this thread that was relevant:

No worries, but I have a bit of a catch22, right? If I want to be mayor, and people have been nice enough to vote for me based on my not asking for the job, I can't exactly start campaign spamming. If I don't want the mayor and I post that it, I think, may seem weird and people may start overthinking the meaning behind it.

The reality is, I like Selrahc and think he would be a good mayor, and would be fine taking my chances he's not a wolf. Of course I know I'm not a wolf, so me being mayor would be nice in that sense, for the added insurance. The flip side, besides a possible risk of death, would be being forced to break a tie on t1. That part of the job wouldn't be too pleasant at least for me, as I hold no personal grudges even against the dastardly wolves from last game, and on day 1 I'd stand a very good chance of breaking the tie in favor of a villager lynch, which even if not really my fault wouldn't make me feel very good.
________________

I still have no vote to lynch because I don't think anyone is a real suspect at this point. I think there are some good arguments for sandover, dantski, and rowain, but I still think each is more likely to be a villager than a wolf. I'd rather not vote and therefore shift the group's path, even slightly, if I have almost no confidence in my vote yet.

(He has said nothing since then, and 180 posts have been made since then and he's never once weighed in or helped whatsoever)

What sunrise does here in the first two paragraphs is rather clever - he points out that any opinion he posts as being mayor will somehow look suspicious. He then very cautiously tries to talk people out of voting him as mayor. Now the only real reason he wouldn't want to be mayor is if he was a wolf, because in that case he'd be a scry target, which would be very bad for him. Problem is that he knows he's doing that, so he supplements it by saying "well I mean it's gonna look suspicious if I'm mayor so what am I supposed to do??" Why though does he bother spending two full paragraphs explaining why someone else would be a better mayor, all the while not even bothering to vote on a werewolf?? I sure didn't see Selrahc or luddite doing that as the other two mayor candidates.

Not only that, but the ONLY paragraph he writes all day about the werewolf, he basically says "you guys are doing great, I'm not gonna bother voting." Um... gee thanks for helping? What villager would actually do that - be so focused on staying under the radar that they would talk people out of voting them mayor and not even bother voting, rather saying "hey guys I don't have a clue so yeah go nuts and have fun." If he's a WW, this makes a lot of sense as he'd want to stay under the radar. If he's a villager, he's a bad one who we wouldn't miss if we lynched him and turned out to be wrong. It all fits wayyyy too well though, so unless someone has a better candidate, he has my vote right now.

Full disclaimer: I voted for him as mayor. Seemed like he'd be a good choice. All of this didn't occur to me until overnight when I reviewed the thread looking for targets. At the end of day 1 I was at a total loss as to who seemed like the next best bet to be a WW, so I went searching for new evidence. This is what I've found... Thoughts?

[Lewwyn]

Jeebus, feels weird being hit with a wall of text with my name on it. Thanks Roland, you beat me to defending myself. I was only going to post a small defense anyway so here goes:

Sandover was a good wolf who tried to get in on my good side and win me over for a bloc. How can I tell? Page 9 of this thread starts with my post. I"M the first one to say MJW should not be scryed as its a waste of time. (I still believe that(more on MJW in a sec)). Sandover only latches onto my argument after I have started it and breeds it bigger thereby winning my trust. I post again on the argument and then Sandover uses that post to say I'm an innocent and vote me for mayor, to win more trust. I was buying it. I almost approached him to discuss theories before Roland posted.

After that, my reasoning was clear. I put in my posts as Roland has posted for me. Every defense post was off for me, and I knew I'd made the right decision.


As for MJW. I believe he is the baner! And I do not trust him one iota! He is a tornado of destruction.


Ummmm, I've been suspicious of Meiz for a while. Sandover picked Rowain and Meiz as wolves but then he voted for Rowain. Its perfect throw suspicion on one wolf and one villager and then lynch the villager. Later in defense he voted for Meiz in oreder to throw me off of him as I was suspicious of Meiz. Then later Meiz begins the lynching of Sareln (who voted for himself to save Sandover! confused villager if ever there was one.) Sandover later JOINS in on lynching Sareln even though it was started by Meiz who he "believed" was a wolf. Further, looking through Meiz's posts I think they are consistent with Sandover in terms of tone and berevity. I vote Meiz (finally )

[Gaspar]

I originally intended to start this post with an impassioned defense because I've seen my name bandied about a bit, but then I realized that my name was bandied about most likely because of my vote for MJW. Fair enough, since I voted for him. But he's shown himself to be nothing but crazy. I overwhelmingly believe him to be the baner at this point, and I overwhelmingly believe him to be completely unhelpful at this point. I had my reasons for voting for him, I learned what I needed to learn from it, and I won't vote for him again. I'm also not intending to discuss anything else he says again, even if it results in my lynching. His posts do nothing but sow discord and confusion in the village, so he's about as useful as wolf, and I have no intent in engaging in that.

As far as what else has gone on since then, not much. I was distracted on Day 1 by all of the baner nonsense, and so I didn't spend enough time looking at what everyone else did. Roland's walls of text also did a lot to distract me (in a good way, as it turned out.) So I'm going to spend a little time figuring out what I should have learned, and I'll post something more substantive later. Let me just say this: There's more than one way to catch a wolf. Long, drawn out reasonings examining everything someone said is one. Analyzing vote histories is another. Those are not the only two options though. I'm not interested in explaining that in this public forum at this time, not with so many wolves still amongst us. Rest assured, I am on team village, I want to win, and I'm going to do everything I can to make that happen.

And, on that note... Meiz

[MJW (ya that one)]

I should point out that the last few pages before the lych would be nonsese if I where not the banner. My methond that almost got me mod-killed would not work if I where not the banner. Kyan had tried to defend himself and besides Sunrise has even fewer posts. Sunrise has made no defense and does not offer any reason why. I have to vote Sunrise until he defends himself or someone comes up for a convicing case for someone else.

I still have not had the seer (or anyone saying that he is the seer!) contact me. I have gotten very important information from other posters. I can paraphase it and give it to him even if he thinks I'm usless.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

I'm sorry to see Cyneheard go. He'd told me privately that he was a villager, and I believed him. And now he's gone!

I have my suspicions, that's for sure, but I want to observe. Thanks to the brilliance of me scheduling a performance review at 7 pm, I won't be home tomorrow until 8:30 PST.... so hopefully there will be much to review tomorrow before I lay out my thoughts publicly.

[Ug the Barbarian]

Ok after wading through Roland's epic and the posts by Lewwyn and Gaspar I agree that Meiz seems the most likely wolf until someone produces a more impressive arguement.

After his recent play, MJWs vote for sunrise has only put me off voting for him (even if the lack of posts is disturbing). I can quite understand the seer's reluctance to contact him.

Now just waiting for Roland's next post .....

[Ug the Barbarian]

Arrghh - why is it you spot something else just after you post.

Finally spotted Meiz's semi accusation on Sandover (post #193)

Ok will bite the bullet and agree with MJW and Scooter, much as it pains me to do so

sunrise089