Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Meiz]

Wow, I did not see that kill coming. But it makes sense if you think of it as trying to get a lucky shot on our Seer. Cyneheard was quite good candinate for that.

As for yesterdays voting, we really stroke a gold mine with that one! But I will keep my opinion that it was an unnecessary risk, which I was not willing to take yet. Scooter made a logical post (#223), where he described the safer plan for identifying the truth. Going back in time, I would still be in favor of that.

MJW's actions were very far from convincing, while Sandover was not an obvious wolf either (at least for me). Those villagers who _knew_ it right (and not just guessed), you are definitely better at analyzing this than I am! All I had, was loud alarm bell ringing in my head. I remember thinking that there are 6 wolfs who know the truth, and yet Sandover was clearly being lynched despite of it. I just had a very bad feeling about it and I was actually becoming quite desperate, thinking that we are being played.

Anyway, fortunately Sandover turned out to be a wolf and Sareln survived the day. Voting against him was horrible, because I was quite certain of his innocence. But as I mentioned, I wasn't willing to risk our Baner at that point. Btw. in my opinion "no hanging" should be an option, if that would be what majority wants...

---

Fortunately there has been a lot of talk on the first day, which is very important. These messages will not disappear, and will become very important in the future. Here are my thoughts on the most suspicious actions on day 1 (not in any priority order):

Lewwyn

He deserves a spot in here, because he was absolutely against scanning MJW. He also suggested that anyone thinking otherwise is acting wolfish. To quote:

Highlighted the most wolfish thing. (highlighted was me suggesting a Seer + Baner cooperation, and saying that it sounds good to me /Meiz)

Or the seer can scan an unknown that the WW don't KNOW he's scanning. Thereby either A) finding a wolf or B) finding another secret trusted villager to form a block with. Secret blocs and actual information on unknowns is more advantageous and valuable.

Also, taking the extra night to confirm the "baner" wastes a shot at finding out the true identity of a wolf. I would rather the Seer scanned ANYONE (including even myself!) other than MJW because if he's a wolf it will become obvious he's lying and if he is the baner then we know he's protected. More information is better. He's already revealed what he's done.

I'm not saying that this is a horrible theory and screams of wolfish behavior. But several people asked him to explain his reasoning after this post, and he did that, but it took 24 hours to do it. For reference, explanation was "Scanning MJW instead of an unknown is akin to building a road to you second city before farming the corn tile. Its all bout getting ahead of the opponent by realizing whats more valuable."

I'm not sure at all if Lewwyn is a villager or wolf. It's just a good idea to keep these actions on back of our heads.


MJW

You have to admit that he is a bit fishy guy I'm quite convinced that he is the Baner, but there could always be some double double blindsight scheme on the backround (I doubt it )


Mr. Nice Guy

I'll just start by quoting the end of his first post.

Is it fair to say I'm a little disappointed that I'm not a wolf? I was hoping to fool everyone with the "Mr. Nice Guy" name and turn out to be the devil. Oh well, maybe next game.

Yep, very funny joke Am I the only one who finds these kind of comments suspicious?

Later he makes a vote for Rowain, who is already starting to get on a chopping block.

As a rule, we should vote for someone who doesn't vote right away on the first day and waits for the crowds to pick a target, but doesn't mind stirring the pot to try and direct the crowd. Out of our top 6 posters to date, only one fits that description: Rowain.

Uberfish points out that Mr. Nice Gut fits to that description as well, and he replies:

Not to be pedantic, but my vote for Ug was the 5th vote of the game. And my vote for Rowain was the 4th such vote. That certainly could be considered bandwagoning, but hardly directing a crowd when I am merely a member of the crowd.
To summarize, fit only one point in that description. However, this shouldn't be about me because I'm a generic villager. Our discussion should focus on people who fit all three categories. You showed in the first game that you are a smart player, Uberfish, so I'd like to open the floor for you to suggest other options?

Nothing incriminating, but good to take a note on this.

Later on, Sandover has claimed to be the Baner and Roland (celebrity already ) + others have questioned this quite vocally. Sandover is sitting at 7 votes, while Rowain and Sareln are sharing second place with only 3 votes. One could think that it's starting to look like a lost cause for Sandover already. So Mr. Nice Guy makes his vote against Sandover and sticks with it until the end. All is good, right? His post:

Let me make sure I understand the events here correctly:
*A couple of votes go against MJW
*MJW freaks out and makes his baner claim, which the village accepts begrudgingly.
*The debate over scrying MJW establishes Rowain as a suspect, and Dantski gets suspected for being quiet
*Roland writes his epic series of novels titled "vote for Sandover"
*Sandover gets dogpiled
*Sandover claims to be the baner

Is that right? Did we really have that crazy of a first day? And now I have to make my vote before the deadline, as I'll be out shopping for the rest of the day cycle. The problem is I don't know who to believe. But the good thing is I know who I don't believe: Sandover.

If I was the baner (and hey, it's in fashion, so now I'm the baner! ) I would not move my vote away from the person laying claim to my role. Sandover did that. The logic and reason behind others' Sandover votes is sound too, but more than anything else, it is Sandover's own actions that has led me to place my final vote in his name.

He is absolutely sure that Sandover is a wolf, and is willing to place his final vote on him. IMO the situation at this point is far from certain.

On a sidenote, I'd like to apologize my comment regarding the "convenience" of you leaving for shopping. I expect everyone to live their lives outside these forums, so it was really stupid comment by me. Sorry

But back to the game. Mr. Nice Guy continues with a post:

I almost did that, but I can't help but get excited over lynching a wolf on day one, and I believe that either:
*MJW and Sandover are both wolves
*MJW is the baner and Sandover is a wolf
*MJW is the fool and Sandvoer is a wolf
*MJW is the baner and Sandover is the fool

With the evidence presented so far, I disregard any other ideas/theories/possibilities as erroneous. With one of those four scenarios being true, I believe that lynching Sandover will bring about good results for the village, and that's why I'm keeping my vote on Sandover --- even if redirecting our attention to a possible (indeed, likely) villager may sound good.

By the way, if Sandover turns out to be a wolf, we should take careful note of who tried to steer us away from him...

In every scenario he lists, Sandover is either a wolf or a fool. The tought of him being the Baner is absolutely insane to him. How can anyone be this sure? Unless he knows more than others do?

The last sentence he makes is even more interesting. He feels so sure of Sandovers guilt, so he can already start to paint targets on anyone daring to think otherwise

Ultimately Sandover the wolf is killed and everyone celebrates :2dance:

Yes! I knew it was worth the 50% chance!

As all have probably guessed, I suspect that it might have been more than a 50% chance for you

I don't know, maybe it's just me finding this suspicious. I don't have any hard evidence, just his certainty of Sandovers guilt makes me wonder...


Sunrise

He does not contribute, and tries really hard to stay out of sight. Enough said for now.


And for last, suspect anyone not voting against Sandover

Yep, I'm included in the list I know I'm innocent, but rest of the villagers naturally don't. Still, I will eat my hat if there are no wolfs voting for sandover!

Well, here are my thoughts on the current situation. Please draw your own conclusions and continue to discuss!

[Lewwyn]

Funny how everyone's sure MJW is the baner and we didn't have to scry him

I have to go to dinner, so this quick. Specifically the part I thought was wolfish in your comment Meiz was "Sounds good to me!" which you then use again in another post. It's a phrase that is innocuous but manipulative. It works to reinforce that its your opinion, it sounds good and its off hand. The casualness of it helps cover a multitude of sins. Very dismissive of what is truly at stake. That is how I expect a Werewolf to act, nonchalant.

As for 24 hours... i don't think there have ever been 24 hours between my posts. I am in a different timezone then most so i usually have to rummage through 5-10 pages upon waking up.

gtg.

[Meiz]

Specifically the part I thought was wolfish in your comment Meiz was "Sounds good to me!" which you then use again in another post. It's a phrase that is innocuous but manipulative. It works to reinforce that its your opinion, it sounds good and its off hand. The casualness of it helps cover a multitude of sins. Very dismissive of what is truly at stake. That is how I expect a Werewolf to act, nonchalant.

Wow, I did not realize that it can be seen this way

As for 24 hours... i don't think there have ever been 24 hours between my posts. I am in a different timezone then most so i usually have to rummage through 5-10 pages upon waking up.

What I mean is that there was a ~24 hour before your explanation. You did do other posts in between.

I'm not actually suspecting you to be a wolf atm. I just feel like I have to point these out, because they might become useful later.

[Gaspar]

As an aside, I can see how the core village players from WW1 spent innumerable hours on pms, gchat, etc. Its tough to know what's safe to post in the thread and what's just arming the enemy.

Damn you, wolves!

(waits for someone to point out how useless this post and vote to lynch me because of it)

[Meiz]

As an aside, I can see how the core village players from WW1 spent innumerable hours on pms, gchat, etc. Its tough to know what's safe to post in the thread and what's just arming the enemy.

Damn you, wolves!

(waits for someone to point out how useless this post and vote to lynch me because of it)

BURN HIM!

Edit: Jokes aside, villager shouldn't be afraid to post. For example I'm now collecting some votes partially because of my loud mouth (?) and mostly because people might think differently than I do. In the worst case scenario, I might be hanged at some point, but this still leaves all the previous conversations intact. So death confirms your status and others can then look back in time and draw new conclusions for possible suspects. Of course no one wants to die, but it's still not a lose-lose situation for the village.

[Lewwyn]

Actually I think I tried to explain it multiple times, the analogy just happens to be the time I think I did justice to my reasoning.

As for being afraid to post, not so much. Right now I think the majority of people are asleep. There will most likely b a flurry of posting as the first people drink their morning coffee over email and werewolves.

I don't think it is that your posts are too numerous or too loud. I happen to see a different goal in them is all. I may be proven wrong, but I may be proven right. I still suspect you Meiz :P

A note on Sunrise: I hope he posts soon. He truly has been quite shadowy this game. I am unsure if its because he is lurking to remain hidden or what. Trying to hide represents two things: A timid wolf or a frightened villager. After all we've just said that people may be scared to be misunderstood. I'm not above switching my vote to him if he does not provide a defense, no matter how much I suspect Meiz. There are still 5 wolves and killing one before another matters not to me. As long as their dead.

[Rowain]

Roland I really like to read your posts despite the fact that it take some time to read through, understand it and get to the core .

Lewwyn has explained his reasoning - he believes in consensus. Aside from vehemently opposing scrying MJW (at least he gives his reasoning, and it does make sense - even if I still don't agree with it), he's done little to arouse anyone's suspicion, including yours.

Again it is not his opposition to scrying MJW that made him suspect (in my eyes) it is his conclusion that someomne who wants a selfproclaimed Baner scanned a wolf that is highly suspect to me. Remember it was the proven Wolf sandover who first made this decision but it was Lewwyn who vehemently supported it.

While initially he held you as a strong suspect, he's gradually moved away from that - yet here you are still tossing his name out as a suspect?

Well someone doesn't become automatically suspect because he thinks I'm a wolf nor does helping me to survive makes one holy. Afterall your first 2 well written essays were to my defense and I think it is very likely that without you I might have danced the hemp-fandango on Day1.

Or, another way to put it, what have the wolves gained by your theory? Assume Lewwyn is a 'Wolf. Assume he sold out his partner to gain our trust. How much have they gained when several people (if I'm not mistaken?) still suspect him of being a 'Wolf because of that play?
Very little, to me. Lewwyn had plenty of time to change things around to avoid selling out his "partner" without raising any more suspicion. He chose to stick to his guns and lynch what turned out to be a 'Wolf. Not really much you can argue against in that, in my opinion.

I don't subscribe to your 'the wolves gained little' argument. First even the best plans can go awry second look at the effects. Lewwyn had exactly one vote against him at the end of day1. And currently there are exactly 0 votes to lynch Lewwyn. Add to this that your essays do carry a lot of weight and I doubt anybody will vote 'lynch Lewwyn' come the end of day2.

1) As much as I was convinced Sandover was a 'Wolf, I could not ignore the idea that I could, potentially, be pushing to lynch our Baner. 50/50 odds, and all that. That's why I kept my vote on Sandover, and why I later shifted to a null vote.

I absolutly have no problem with that switch. I did something similar and had you stayed a null vote (or voted for someone different then MJW) you wouldn't have raised any suspicion to me.

- Pulling my vote off Sandover may save him (buying us time to sort this sordid mess out, like many other people were advocating), but putting it onto MJW - with only a few minutes left to vote - would do nothing to condemn MJW. I knew he was safe - after all, no one else was going to follow me in this - and if it turned out MJW WAS the 'Wolf, I wanted to be the first one on his throat.
- I was constantly checking the vote tallies, both those posted and keeping my own tally, and I knew that pulling my vote off would neither save Sandover nor condemn Sareln - in other words, wherever my vote landed, it wouldn't matter, so who is my next highest suspect?

This is the very core of my problem. You didn't know that MJW was safe. You had absolutly no guarrantee that not more people would turn and follow you and vote for MJW. Afterall 3 people did vote after you made your switch so there was more than enough time for several others too. Again I can follow your reason to switch from sandover. I can follow your reason to distrust MJW. But I absolutly can't follow your: I knew he would be save so it didn't matter that I voted for him.
If you , Ug and Gaspar are all simple villagers then a swing of the 6 wolves would have killed our Baner.

I can't decide if you're reiterating this because you wrote it originally, or because you're following the person who already stated this exact same thing - and if so, maybe you're trying to give this idea credibility through repetition. Either way, I personally find it worth noting - if only for curiosity's sake.

As I like the sound of it it could well be that I have reiterated myself there . But you are right repetition doesn't increase credibility.

Either I'll win back some credibility, or I'll become an even bigger target and find myself hanging from the gallows - at which point I'll be found a Villager, and everyone who voted to lynch me will suddenly become suspect. While I don't strive to be a martyr (hi Sareln!), if getting myself lynched leads to another 'Wolf kill - that's better than breaking even in my book. That's a win, no matter how you slice it.

Now I can't help it but I don't like the sound of that. We know from game 1 that the innocent villagers were killed by other villagers. Take a look at Day 2 there: Cyneheard(villagers) got lynched and the Masons played a huge role in that.

And now that I have spent close to 2 hours reading, thinking and writing on this answer alone. I skip on Gaspar and will the points concerning him lateron.
As I can't be sure that I start to get tunnel vison against Roland I implore all to read Rolands and my post and give your thoughts and your general opinions.

[Kyan]

Serdoa, i may be a bit of a hypocrite, but so far you don't seem to have posted a whole lot of useful information. In fact, thus far, the only real participation i can see is you trying to sav Sandover at the end.

for that reason, my vote is on Serdoa for now.

[Kyan]

Rowain- i actually totally agree with you. I'm very wary of the 'long posts make you innocent' theory. By that logic, i must be a villager because i know the meaning of 'succinct'

Roland, i get hwat you're saying about emotions pulling you off, but there's a few phrases i really don't like. Rowain is right to call you out on the 'lynching you makes those who votes for you insta-wolves' bit. He's used WW game 1 as a great example of this. I'm just very worried that you and MJW are trying to act as focal heads of the village when none of us have any real evidence.

You sure type well and this aids your credibility but is that enough? As for MJW, well, he's mad as a box full of frogs.

[Serdoa]

Hypocrite is the word to go for here, you are right with that. I wonder, did you state that only so that nobody would double check on what exactly you did on Day 1? As in "barely anything". I am pretty sure that I have posted more then you and tried to help more then you did.

As for your accusation: Yes, without doubt, I have talked about not taking the chance to maybe kill the Baner. As did several other people as well. But thats exactly what I said earlier, no matter what you do, it can always be twisted and stated "Thats wolf behaviour". If I would be in the same situation again, with the knowledge I had at that time, I would again vote not to kill Sandover. I remember MANY people talking about how important the Baner is. It seemed for me quite locigal that we should not kill one who could be the Baner.

As for my vote, I wanted to wait and see whats written here, but decided against that. Instead I am voting for sunrise089. Not talking doesn't help anyone, no matter if he is a villager or a wolf.