Well I'm not convinced by anything said so far on day 2 so I'm going to look at other avenues.
Firstly the idea that wolves will try to remain relatively unnoticed. To do that I'm going to investigate the 5 players with the lowest numbers of posts.
1. Kyan
Quote:I have a counter-proposal. Krill
As for lynching, anyone whose silent seems the way to go on day 1 so i'll echo the Ug the Barbarian vote for now
This was his first post, a bit jokey and a vote for someone who hasn't really attracted much attention
Quote:I remove my vote for Ug and vote for Dantski instead. Let's get people to speak up, surely that's one key lesson to be learned from the first game.
Also, Sandover, i wondered that but remain unconvinced for now
His 2nd post, he joined the early voing towards me, his reasoning being to encourage people to speak up. A little strange isn't it coming from the person with the fewest posts?
The sandover related comment was him commenting on Sandover's criticism of one of MJW's posts about voting for luddite. I feel Kyan's comment here is asking Sandover to continue to pursue this line of thought and possibly try and get a MJW lynch.
3rd post features more derogatory statements towards MJW, he then sighs and says for what its worth I believe you. While full support of MJW ishard to come by right now its still not too positive.
4th is again attacking MJW's credibility as MJW says what he thinks the best idea is regarding who to protect as baner. While I agree with baner protection strategy not being a particularly good thing to discuss its still a flat hostile post.
5th is a full backing of Roland where he basically just says I agree and will follow whatever you come up with, at this point Roland is voting for Sandover so +1 villager point to Kyan!
It also includes a mayor vote for luddite, not sure what to make of this after he criticized MJW's vote for the same person. Again Kyan uses the I agree with what he says reason for voting this way.
Quote:This kind of brings me to my next point, as we re-digest all this information. I believe MJW to be a baner and Sandover was obviously a wolf. So, do we look at people who avoided Sandover's claim altogether? *If* i were a wolf, which i'm not, i would have probably seen that the hammer was falling on Sandover and jumped on board as a tool to later avoid suspicion. Using Roland as an excuse would be very believable (hell, it definitely worked on me.)
6th post above, isn't he just describing exactly what he did? This paragraph just makes alarm bells ring for me.
Quote:The late Sareln surge was definitely interested and i'd bet cash that at least one werewolf made this swap. As a side note, Sareln, you went a long way to proving yourself innocent in my eyes today. Being willing to take one for the team is certainly commendable and i can't see a potential werewolf gain. If Sareln *was* a werewolf and got lynched, then the wolves gain nothing and lose an, up to know, not particularly suspected villager.
The 2nd part of the 6th post, I agree that you at least 1 person who switched to Sareln was wolf but that's not very helpful right now. I think his assessment of the Sareln situation is mostly correct though.
7th post isn't of any note
8th post he accuses MJW of fabricating evidence to get him lynched, what he quotes MJW saying though doesn't do anything of the sort though? All MJW said was some usual confusing stuff that didn't make a whole lot of sense. He then attacks MJW again for voting for him because of his inactivity and lack of individually thought out arguments. Kyan points out he did vote for Sandover a proven wolf, he throws some suspicion on Lewwyn but without providing any reasoning saying he'll collate some real evidence later. This'll be interesting to see if he follows it up.
Lastly during the 8th post he once again attacks MJW's credibility and says the seer would have good reason not to contact MJW at this point. Frankly I've made my personal view on who the seer should've scry'ed (is that correct?) clear so this just seems an attempt to keep people in the dark.
Then Kyan posts twice while I was making this post, damn this is taking a long time!
9th post is trying to damn Serdoa for a lack of posting and lack of useful information, he openly admits he is guilty of the same thing though.
Quote:Rowain- i actually totally agree with you. I'm very wary of the 'long posts make you innocent' theory. By that logic, i must be a villager because i know the meaning of 'succinct'
Start of his last post to date, it looks fairly harmless and jokey but it also tries to imply that he should be able to get away without posting some individual thoughts and reasons like he has so far.
Quote:Roland, i get what you're saying about emotions pulling you off, but there's a few phrases i really don't like. Rowain is right to call you out on the 'lynching you makes those who votes for you insta-wolves' bit. He's used WW game 1 as a great example of this. I'm just very worried that you and MJW are trying to act as focal heads of the village when none of us have any real evidence
A few phrases you don't like? Quote them! Explore them! Don't just say you don't like them! The only part of this post that is vaguely helpful in a villager way in the comment on not just suspecting those who vote for you. I was guilty of this as much as, if not more than anyone in WW1. He than attacks MJW's credibility (*cough*) and then Roland for trying to discuss things.
Well thats all of Kyan's posts to date and it doesn't make good reading if he's innocent.
edit - well Kyan keeps posting while I'm writing this so one more!
Quote:I explained my quietness on day 1 and apologised for it. The few actions i did make though, turned out to be fairly vital, no? If i was someone else, i'd probably suspect me too but i know im innocent. I can't say the same for you
This only reinforces my suspicions against you! You barely/didn't contribute at all day 1 and you say your actions were vital?! Roland made the point of his not voting for Sandover at the end didn't affect the lynch but your vote was vital? Can't say I like the play of going around saying "I'm innocent, I'm innocent don't lynch me" either.
2. Sunrise
I won't quote anything sunrise has said because....well sunrise literally hasn't said anything in the thread of any significance. I think I'll give him another day to post something helpful before I start pointing fingers.
3. Gaspar
Starts off with a joke post. However it still points a finger at Kyan and supports luddite as mayor. Neither vote is given a good explanation.
2nd post quickly switches both votes again for no pressing reason, he points out MJW playing in a similar fashion to TT in WW1 which seems accurate to me.
3rd post is his first meaningful post, there's a lot of fluff just recapping what's been said and he says he believes MJW is the baner. He throws some support behind Sandover's posting style, something I did as well I admit
Quote:And that leads to the last point I want to make. Roland is being EXTREMELY critical of people throwing their votes around. That is a very valid early days strategy, IMO. Shake the tree a little, see what falls out. The odds are extremely high we're going to accidentally lynch a villager before the game is out. I feel comfortable that none of the villagers want to do that, but we have to accept that its likely. So throwing an odd vote around, even if it ends up in a dead villager, is completely worth it if it flushes the wolves out. Those sorts of strategies are part of what won WW1 for the village. So let's not be overly critical because someone changes votes a lot, or even votes without 37 readings of thread first. I've voted for each role twice, and I'd say the likelihood is solid I'll change at least one more time before the day is over, and I'm a villager who wants to win the game
The last part of the 3rd post says a lot. He is unhappy on being called out on vote switching and seems happy for villagers to lose some people if it works out in the end. At the end he says he'll probably switch around votes again as he pleases (Mundo votes as he pleases?) and that's a very wolflike attitude to me. "Hi I'm a wolf, i'll switch my vote as many times as I like to potentially swing a vote the way I want to". Everyone should look out in future to see if he makes any last minute votes so save someone.
Next post says he was joking about his Kyan vote and his mayor vote was just to stir things up. With no reasoning given AGAIN he joins the bandwagon vs Sandover.
Then he posts saying losing the baner wouldn't be a big deal when it clearly would be. He then changes vote yet again to vote for the likely baner MJW while taking his vote off Sandover, reasoning being that Sandover is easier to deal with than MJW.
Quote:I really think lynching Sandover at this point is a mistake, I think his appeals were more earnest, and he only outed himself after real pressure.
MJW on the other hand, panicked immediately. He's indicated he's played this game before via his Mafia terminology, I can't imagine someone with experience in the game would have behaved in this way unless he was a wolf trying to lure the real baner out. I don't want to lynch Sareln because he's most likely a villager, we just take a panic route out to buy more time.
Ask yourself this, fellow villagers: If MJW *is* the real baner, do you see him helping us at this point? If I'm wrong and he is, I still don't think it really hurts our chances to win.
I've said my peace on the subject, just felt like I needed to get it out there
How damning can one post be against someone? Here he's pressing the case against MJW EXTREMELY hard while encouraging people to move away from voting for Sandover. Also once again he reinforces his point that losing the baner wouldn't really matter, I can't imagine a villager having that attitude TBH.
Quote:I originally intended to start this post with an impassioned defense because I've seen my name bandied about a bit, but then I realized that my name was bandied about most likely because of my vote for MJW. Fair enough, since I voted for him. But he's shown himself to be nothing but crazy. I overwhelmingly believe him to be the baner at this point, and I overwhelmingly believe him to be completely unhelpful at this point. I had my reasons for voting for him, I learned what I needed to learn from it, and I won't vote for him again. I'm also not intending to discuss anything else he says again, even if it results in my lynching. His posts do nothing but sow discord and confusion in the village, so he's about as useful as wolf, and I have no intent in engaging in that.
As far as what else has gone on since then, not much. I was distracted on Day 1 by all of the baner nonsense, and so I didn't spend enough time looking at what everyone else did. Roland's walls of text also did a lot to distract me (in a good way, as it turned out.) So I'm going to spend a little time figuring out what I should have learned, and I'll post something more substantive later. Let me just say this: There's more than one way to catch a wolf. Long, drawn out reasonings examining everything someone said is one. Analyzing vote histories is another. Those are not the only two options though. I'm not interested in explaining that in this public forum at this time, not with so many wolves still amongst us. Rest assured, I am on team village, I want to win, and I'm going to do everything I can to make that happen.
And, on that note... Meiz
Day 2 and Gaspar begins by continuing the assault on MJW and then on Roland's walls of text. He tries to excuse his actions on day 1 blaming the baner issue. Note the wording he uses at one point.
His posts do nothing but sow discord and confusion in the village, so he's about as useful as wolf, and I have no intent in engaging in that
The exact same thing as Gaspar is doing! Gaspar has switched his vote more often than a mud wrestler takes a shower and continues to attack the credibility of the 2 most likely villagers. Sheesh
There's really no redeeming parts of your posts to put up, you seem a pretty good person to lynch right now
Gaspar
4. Uberfish
Was a wolf in WW1, first post was jokey like many others.
2nd post comes across as uber shaking his head at MJW panicking early and declaring baner status, he also votes the last active person in the thread as mayor.
3rd post in a basic game related post. Is this just a way to keep post count and activity up?
4th is a strange post which basically features uber turning Mr Nice Guys arguments against Rowain right back at him. Using other peoples arguments lacks original thinking, something that comes easier to a villager than a wolf. He follows it up in his 5th post explaining his vote for Mr Nice Guy was more o make a point than anything else.
Next he throws his support behind sunrise for mayor, again someone voting for an inactive. The second portion of his post examines Meiz/Sandover/Lewwyn and arrives at the conclusion that both Sandover + Lewwyn are suspicious but he votes for Lewwyn just to keep him as an option. Not sure what purpose that serves...
Then there's a bit of a fluff post, again it features a rules based question.
He makes a late switch to Sareln.
Quote:I can tell you that in the first game, wolves spent quite a lot of effort trying to root out the baner, and often went for a say a 3rd choice target in order to try and avoid the possibility of protection, allowing the people we really wanted to kill to live an extra day or two and build the villager network further. A failed kill is very bad for wolves because not only do they get one step further from victory, it confirms a villager. Also, the baner can act as a mouthpiece for the seer; it would have only taken 1 scry tonight to identify one of the two claimed baners as a non-wolf and start getting information out that way.
So yeah, I didn't want to take the chance of killing the baner either, especially as MJW was making himself look really bad towards the end of the day... and I'm aware my last minute vote will be considered suspicious given the outcome. Obviously I got it wrong, and I'm glad I didn't actually get Sareln killed in the end
Is this post trying to encourage the baner not to protect himself but try to attempt the unlikely save of random villagers? Hard to say, uber may be trying to help the village with insights on how the wolves played in the first game.
Quote:Cyneheard looks like a seer fishing attempt - probably under the assumption that the seer is trying to hide his identity by staying quiet.
So where does that leave us for day 2?
- we have MJW pretty much confirmed as baner. Unfortunately, his play has been pretty poor so far. Fortunately, he didn't get kicked out of the game for the role-PM gaffe.
- now that Sandover is a wolf, we should look at his posts again in this light and see if his actions might have been part of a larger plan
- we can also look for inconsistent actions in the late voting
- we have 3 people who look fairly likely to be villagers:
- Sareln (by putting himself forward as a lynch candidate to save the potential baner)
- Selrahc (who flipped at the last minute to lynch Sandover)
- Roland (responsible for making the case against Sandover in the first place, although I don't like his late flip to MJW when it was clear MJW would not get enough votes)
- It's possible that one of them is a wolf making a risky move to gain "trusted villager" status, but they probably shouldn't be the prime suspects today
I'll look for some evidence later/tomorrow, but for now I'm going to point out that several of us supported sunrise089 as mayor and he didn't even cast a regular vote
I still don't consider MJW as a nailed on certainty as baner. With his play so far I'm of the opinion he's played more like a fool baner than a real one.
Uber's assessment of confirmed villagers is something I agree with on 2 out of the 3. Selrahc's last switch to Sandover could just as easily be a wolf trying to gain credit. Considering the risks in possibly killing the baner, I'd expect more cautious play from one of the good guys.
At the moment uber isn't hugely suspicious but neither is he in a position to be trusted, in fact he is playing virtually the same as he did in WW1.
5. Dantski
Well uhh.... not to be a smartass but I already know my position so lets say the 5 people who have posted least who aren't called Dantski :neenernee
5.1. Irgy
Votes early on for MJW and sunrise as mayor, not a promising start. Quickly switches to me as one of the non posters when MJW declares he's the baner. This is totally understandable.
He supports the idea of not scanning MJW and says it would be better to scan someone who less is known about. Not really a post that helps or hurts him.
Then votes for MJW as mayor, the same person he voted to lynch in the same day! Either Irgy is very confused or trying to play the game with more information than the average villager. He also discourages people reading too much into what others post. But don't we want discussion and openness? Seems a wolflike thing to say.
Irgy then jumps on the Sandover lynch, he also apologises if he's helped lynch an innocent, I don't know if it was a habit for wolves to apologise in WW1 or not but this did seem like a helpless villager post to me.
After thats Irgy makes a few posts relating to MJW revealing what his starting PM was and voting numbers on day 1.
Overall Irgy looks somewhat clean with the odd question mark over his head.
I will never post something quite so long again, this took bloody ages to write
