Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Rowain]

I will never post something quite so long again, this took bloody ages to write

If you post more often you wouldn't need to post such a long one :neenernee
Beside a very well thought out and laborate post.

Your points on Gaspar are very strong especially his attitude concerning a propable Baner-loss are very odd for a villager.

On sunrise: He was very silent in Game 1 too. He has the fewest posts there (and by a fair margin) and that although the game contained Cull So in summary I wouldn't read too much into his silence now.

Although I must confess his 'No vote' and silence make it very hard to judge him. And we need discussion to find wolves so a villager who is always silent is very bad for us. I hope his post(s) once he regains Net-access can shed some light on his thoughts.

EDIT: I see he has posted while I was typing so more reading and thinking to do.

[uberfish]

So I did look at Sandover's actions again and in particular why he might not want MJW investigated, and why he made the link between Rowain and MJW.


Scenario #1:

MJW is a wolf
Sandover didn't want him investigated to protect him for a while
Sandover's claim that Rowain's guilt would confirm MJW as baner could be because Rowain is actually a wolf too
Wolves decided to set up a wolf-wolf fight after Sandover came under fire in the hope that the survivor would gain credibility in the eyes of village


Scenario #2:

MJW is a villager (either baner or fool-baner)
Sandover didn't want him investigated to delay the formation of a network around the seer+baner, giving the wolves more time to flush out the seer
Sandover's claim that Rowain's guilt would confirm MJW as baner was meant to imply the reverse: he's trying to lynch Rowain who is innocent, and therefore MJW would still be suspicious - but not investigated


Scenario #3 (null hypothesis):

Sandover was just trying to stir up trouble and didn't really care about the content of his posts so long as he had an argument to join


I just think scenarios like #1 are pretty unlikely, a staged wolf-wolf claim fight on day 1 would be very risky for wolves due to the possibility that the real baner would claim leading to 2 early wolf lynches. Also the role-PM ploy used by MJW doesn't seem like one that could have been safely done by a wolf, as they wouldn't have the baner PM if the real baner claimed.

Obviously we can't say for certain Sandover was not doing #3, but #2 fits a pattern quite well, I find.

[Rowain]

Yes, it is. I'd certainly sacrifice all of the villager power roles to kill four wolves.

Sorry but I disagree. Scratch the 4 known powerroles and 4 wolves you still have 2 wolves left who can't be found by screening, who don't have to fear a trusted network around the masons and who can kill without fear.
The game can be won without Seer but IMO game1 would have been lost without a Baner.

[Kyan]

Other then that, I have nothing to add to the discussion right now. I have no clue if sunrise is a wolf or a villager but simply by his not-posting he is for me the only locigal choice to lynch. At least as long as no one states "I am a wolf" or gets identified as a wolf by evidence.

So, i accuse you of being inactive and unhelpful. Likely a wolf or perhaps a devil playing it low, Ilios-style. It's an effective method, Ilios did live until the last dy after all!

Your response is just to direct my argument back at me. You still haven't offered your own actual thoughts on... anything. I've been using my time to work through the many pages and you came out as my main suspect. Have you got any reason at all i should change my vote?

[Kyan]

Sorry but I disagree. Scratch the 4 known powerroles and 4 wolves you still have 2 wolves left who can't be found by screening, who don't have to fear a trusted network around the masons and who can kill without fear.
The game can be won without Seer but IMO game1 would have been lost without a Baner.

I totally disagree. Just look at the percentages if both sides lose 4 people...

[Selrahc]

4 power roles for 4 wolves from game start is actually a bad deal. It leaves the allowance of incorrect lynches exactly the same, but removes all the good villager roles and it is harder to find wolves when there are less of them (In my experience at least).

[Serdoa]

Kyan, why should I even try to defend when all you are saying is basically "You are acting like I do, so you are probably a wolf or the devil". Do you realize that this makes no sense at all? You let it sound like you offered well-thought out pieces but in reality you have offered nothing but one accusation which is not backed up by anything except for that I didn't vote for Sandover. And as we all can read nobody is really sure what the best course of action was in that case. I tried to do what I thought was best (save the baner, whoever it is) - and hey, even Sareln who was on the chopping block did the same thing.

So whats left of your accusation? That I don't type long postings with my thoughts? There are several more players who did do that, many which haven't posted at all (or nothing meaningful) on day 2. Why do you try to make me special? I mean, can't it be that I simply have no idea who could be a wolf? Because thats it. I am simply not sure who could be a wolf, so I am voting for sunrise because he is not helping either way. I could write now some sentences why Roland and MJW are probably villagers. I could write why I think that at least 2 of the Sandover-voters are wolves, but thats simply for the numbers in this game so it is nothing which does help us to identify any wolf. So I would I post it? Only to sow confusion like you do it by trying to accuse me without any real evidence?

[Kyan]

Kyan, why should I even try to defend when all you are saying is basically "You are acting like I do, so you are probably a wolf or the devil". Do you realize that this makes no sense at all? You let it sound like you offered well-thought out pieces but in reality you have offered nothing but one accusation which is not backed up by anything except for that I didn't vote for Sandover. And as we all can read nobody is really sure what the best course of action was in that case. I tried to do what I thought was best (save the baner, whoever it is) - and hey, even Sareln who was on the chopping block did the same thing.

So whats left of your accusation? That I don't type long postings with my thoughts? There are several more players who did do that, many which haven't posted at all (or nothing meaningful) on day 2. Why do you try to make me special? I mean, can't it be that I simply have no idea who could be a wolf? Because thats it. I am simply not sure who could be a wolf, so I am voting for sunrise because he is not helping either way. I could write now some sentences why Roland and MJW are probably villagers. I could write why I think that at least 2 of the Sandover-voters are wolves, but thats simply for the numbers in this game so it is nothing which does help us to identify any wolf. So I would I post it? Only to sow confusion like you do it by trying to accuse me without any real evidence?

We need to vote for someone. To sit back and offer no opinions isn't helpful. There's plenty of insight to be had. I've done my digging and i found someone acting suspicious. So far that person has done very little to persuade me otherwise.

If you're not sure, dig through the evidence. There's a LOT of it! Form an opinion and help the rest of us catch your pack-mates :neenernee

[Meiz]

Second clue to me is Meiz's question about whether a 50/50 shot to kill the baner was worth a 50/50 shot at a wolf. Yes, it is. I'd certainly sacrifice all of the villager power roles to kill four wolves. The only reason to try to make people scared to vote for a likely wolf is IMHO if you're a wolf yourself.

Baner is the most powerful role for the village. I think it was far from an obvious and optimal decision to take the gamble.

And you say that the only reason to suggest otherwise is a wolf trying to scare people. Oh my, you've got a long list of identified wolfs on your hands then

I have to say, I couldn't disagree more with your comment.

[Serdoa]

Yep there is so much evidence... I've gone through all your posts and I can only hope everyone else does that (Dantski did and he did find already some strange things in the few postings you made). You have not helped at all the whole time, you have apologized for not being there on day 1, but all you do on day 2 is try to accuse me - without any evidence. You tell me I shall dig through nearly 400 posts to find evidence. And you said you did that. So I gone back to your first accusation of me

Serdoa, i may be a bit of a hypocrite, but so far you don't seem to have posted a whole lot of useful information. In fact, thus far, the only real participation i can see is you trying to sav Sandover at the end.

for that reason, my vote is on Serdoa for now.

Oh yeah, I can really feel how much thought you put into that, how much you have carefully examined all 300+ posts (at that time) and how much... you tried to find a innocent villager which did not vote for Sandover so you can accuse him.

Really, I am not even sure right now if you have even read all postings in this thread. You ask me to post anything helpful, but I have already put down my thoughts. Maybe not as well thought out as Rolands but I said why I did not vote for Sandover (already before he was lynched I explained why I will not vote for him) and I explained why I vote for sunrise. But you know what? For now, I simply change my vote to Kyan. You try so hard to set me up as a lynch target that I really start to believe that you simply try to get one of us villagers killed today because you wolves can't lose another one of yours.