Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Also the role-PM ploy used by MJW doesn't seem like one that could have been safely done by a wolf, as they wouldn't have the baner PM if the real baner claimed.

...
SEER!!!


Sunrise's new post does not help at all so my vote is still on him.

[Roland]

Scooter:
You raise some very interesting, valid points about Sunrise. It's definitely worth noting, but at this point I'm not about to stake my lynch vote on such a small bit of circumstantial evidence. I'm glad for the insight by someone other than me (I was going to post something very similar today - thanks!), but at this point it's just not enough to go on. I'm going to let this one lie for now, and see what (more) Sunrise has to offer - once he gets his computer back up and running.

Thanks Roland, you beat me to defending myself.

I examine evidence as I see it, organize it, and post it. Simple as that. You're hardly the first I've tried to defend (right Rowain?), and you won't be the last. If I feel someone's barking up the wrong tree, I'll say so. Everyone else is free to interpret everything as they will and make their own conclusions.

I"M the first one to say MJW should not be scryed as its a waste of time. (I still believe that(more on MJW in a sec)).

While I agree with you at this point (scrying MJW at this very moment is a waste; in another day or three I think it's worth looking into, but for now he's a non-issue no matter which side he's on), I did not agree with you back then - especially if he was to become mayor. Although I don't play Civ, I think I get the point you're trying to make (I don't understand the analogy, but I do understand the meaning), so I'm not going to berate you for your stance. Personally, I think it's a waste of time barking up this tree ("if people don't want to scry MJW, they MUST be a 'Wolf!") - it's too flimsy a piece of "evidence", and it can be made to go either way. Enough about that for now, though.

I put in my posts as Roland has posted for me. Every defense post was off for me, and I knew I'd made the right decision.

Um... huh? I'm not sure what you're trying to say with that first sentence. Mind clarifying, if only because it has MY name attached to it?

As for your second sentence, what I believe you're trying to say is that Sandover's defensive statements were all "off" to you - i.e. only added to your suspicions about him, rather than made him look more innocent. I felt the exact same, but I'm just trying to clarify your statements.

As for MJW. I believe he is the baner! And I do not trust him one iota! He is a tornado of destruction.

I believe MJW is the Baner. I believe, at this point, it doesn't really matter. I believe it's a waste to spend time driving his head into the ground - much as I am tempted to, and often. At this point, it's best to just assume MJW is the Baner (until such time the Seer determines it for us), and leave him alone. He's going to post his thoughts, same as the rest of us. We can agree, we can disagree, and we can smack our foreheads over the content, but attacking him adds credibility to NO ONE - 'Wolves or Villagers. Let it lie for now. This goes doubly for myself, I might add - I'm as guilty as anyone.

Ummmm, I've been suspicious of Meiz for a while. Sandover picked Rowain and Meiz as wolves but then he voted for Rowain. Its perfect throw suspicion on one wolf and one villager and then lynch the villager. Later in defense he voted for Meiz in oreder to throw me off of him as I was suspicious of Meiz. Then later Meiz begins the lynching of Sareln (who voted for himself to save Sandover! confused villager if ever there was one.) Sandover later JOINS in on lynching Sareln even though it was started by Meiz who he "believed" was a wolf. Further, looking through Meiz's posts I think they are consistent with Sandover in terms of tone and berevity. I vote Meiz (finally )

Ok. I get what you're saying - thank you for explaining. However, I don't follow. Or, rather, I don't agree.

1) It makes more sense to me that Sandover would choose two Villager's right off the bat. No matter who ends up getting lynched, they'd BOTH be Villagers, so win for the 'Wolves. At the very least, it sows discord - chaos is a 'Wolf's best friend.

2) Meiz first voted against MJW - and stuck on him like glue - until MJW claimed to be the Baner. Afterward, he took his vote off ANYONE - after all, why risk lynching a possible Baner when said Baner really did appear to be a panicking Villager? He then votes for MJW as Mayor - two birds with one stone. One target is easier to protect than two, after all.

3) After looking things over, he spots two people who've laid very low - Serdoa and Sareln. 50/50 shot, so he picks Sareln. No other reasons given, so not much to go on as to why he did it, but my gather is that he picked someone with either the lowest post count at the time, or just picked at random between the two (Sareln comes before Serdoa alphabetically). Furthermore, Serdoa spoke up before Sareln - therefore, if he was ONLY targeting the quiet ones (and there was a great deal of this sentiment in that first day), why would he move off Sareln and onto Serdoa? That would make no sense - so, no reason to change.

4) He starts to seriously suspect Sandover. Two posts later, his suspicions are high - yet he doesn't switch off Sareln? THAT is suspicious, to me. It reeks of being a 'Wolf trying to gain credibility. And, it gets better. Once Sandover drops the Baner bomb, he takes the position of not wanting to kill either potential Baner - so he keeps it on Sareln, the only other lynch vote that can possibly save Sandover. You'll find it all here:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post113207

This is his most damning post, given your accusations. It is, in my eyes, the ONLY real evidence we have against him - everything else is circumstantial, at best. So far...

5) He then goes on to try to defend the notion that we shouldn't kill EITHER Baner. A safe move, as I stated myself, but let's venture a bit further. Now he starts attacking anyone who's willing to lynch Sandover because it runs the risk of a 50/50 shot of killing the Baner. Fine. Still a completely safe position to be in, but sticking his neck out just a little further. He also casts a vote for Sunrise as mayor (while Selrahc practically has it in the bag at this point) - really? No real explanation, just moving from MJW as Mayor to Sunrise because he doesn't trust MJW anymore (not that I did, either at that point). He even goes so far as to apologize to Sareln, saying he truly believes he's a Villager. Yes, indeed, if I was a 'Wolf, I'd truly believe someone was a Villager, too - I'd know!

Well what do you know... I started off this argument saying that Meiz isn't a 'Wolf, and yet here it looks like I'm saying he is! You're right - after reviewing all the evidence against Meiz for a second time, I've come to change my mind a bit. I believe Meiz is a solid candidate for a 'Wolf, and I have another candidate whom I also believe to be a 'Wolf - for the very same reasons as Meiz. We'll get to that in a bit, though.

And, on that note... Meiz

I have no idea on what note you are referring, so I'll admit this appeared to be completely out of left field - at first. Now, however, I'm beginning to think you saw what I outlined above sooner than I did. If so, good call. If not, good lucky guess.

Ok after wading through Roland's epic and the posts by Lewwyn and Gaspar I agree that Meiz seems the most likely wolf until someone produces a more impressive arguement.

Am I missing something? Did I call out Meiz earlier and simply forget? Now you're making me want to re-read my own posts! They took forever to write, and now you want me to re-read them?!

Now just waiting for Roland's next post .....

Happy now?

Arrghh - why is it you spot something else just after you post.

Finally spotted Meiz's semi accusation on Sandover (post #193)

Ok will bite the bullet and agree with MJW and Scooter, much as it pains me to do so

sunrise089

Ok... Now I'm even more confused. At first I wanted to know why you chose Meiz. Now I want to know why you chose Sunrise over Meiz, because the only evidence I see right now against Sunrise is:

1) He's the most quiet person we have right now (his computer blew up - mine did two 3 months ago; it sucks to have that happen)
2) He makes a very interesting post about his Mayor running, which does nothing - to me - but raise him on my list of people to keep an eye on. Nothing damning, but no salvation, either.

So... yeah. Care to explain? I'm deeply curious. As far as I can see, Meiz is one of our best candidates for 'Wolf - Sunrise is WAY too much of an unknown at this point, and I want to hear what he has to say.

Mr. Nice Guy

Yep, very funny joke Am I the only one who finds these kind of comments suspicious?

No, you're not the only one, but such comments are hardly even noteworthy - almost everyone makes odd comments (myself included). It's human nature, not 'Wolf versus Villager nature. To draw conclusions based upon such insignificant words is, to me, foolhardy. Focus on REALY evidence, not flim-flam. Just my thoughts.

He is absolutely sure that Sandover is a wolf, and is willing to place his final vote on him. IMO the situation at this point is far from certain.

The situation was fairly certain for several people. That's not to say it wasn't equally uncertain for many others, but to try and draw suspicion against Mr. Nice Guy based solely upon the fact that he believed, truly, Sandover was a 'Wolf is... again, flimsy evidence. If anything, I should be a bigger subject to you, for switching off at the last moment - against the OTHER Baner potential. I've already explained my reasons, but still - looking at it from the outside in, I'm a far more suspicious target than Mr. Nice Guy. Maybe others won't see it that way, but that's how it looks to me.

In every scenario he lists, Sandover is either a wolf or a fool. The tought of him being the Baner is absolutely insane to him. How can anyone be this sure? Unless he knows more than others do?

Ever heard of faith? Faith in oneself, and faith in others? Why do some people believe in God? Because they just "know". I truly believed Sandover was a wolf. I presented all the evidence as I saw it, and because of that other people believed he was a 'Wolf, too. Sandover's actions were, as I illustrated, the perfect actions for a 'Wolf to take - if he was truly the Baner, he should have spoke up sooner. The longer he waited, the more suspicion it cast upon him (see the Mason argument from WW1).

Again, not trying to criticize here, just pointing out things as I see them. You seem to be trying to slowly build a case against Mr. Nice Guy - someone who helped kill a 'Wolf, when you yourself would not. Moreover, you tried to kill someone who everyone here now believes to be innocent - and wouldn't a 'Wolf already know if Sareln was a Villager or not? Now you find yourself on the chopping block, and instead of addressing people's accusations you start throwing some out (in a very low-key, almost unnoticeable fashion) about someone who was instrumental to killing a 'Wolf?

The last sentence he makes is even more interesting. He feels so sure of Sandovers guilt, so he can already start to paint targets on anyone daring to think otherwise

I had the same feelings. For me, that's how the game is played. You've said it yourself - it's in people's words and actions that we shall find out who is a 'Wolf, and who is a Villager.

As all have probably guessed, I suspect that it might have been more than a 50% chance for you

Where are you going with this, exactly? Are you hinting, as I think you are, that Mr. Nice Guy is in fact a 'Wolf, who tried to gain credibility with the town by throwing his brother down for the count? Really? On what grounds can you make that stick? I can see no conceivable way that idea makes MORE sense than other, safer plays. If anything, if that was the case the BEST thing he could do - to save Sandover AND avoid suspicion - is cast a null vote! Instead, he stuck to his convictions and killed a 'Wolf, while you yourself switched over to killing a probable Villager! Yes, hindsight is wonderful and it's all so easy to say that none of this was that certain back then - but then, here you are trying to say it WAS, for someone else. On that notion, it's even easier to lay that same accusation against you.

Sunrise

He does not contribute, and tries really hard to stay out of sight. Enough said for now.

Is it? Really? You're a far better candidate for 'Wolf than Sunrise, but then, why would you vote for yourself? Preposterous. Still, I can think of at least one other person who makes a very compelling case for a 'Wolf, besides you - and, as I've demonstrated, even I make a better target for lynching at this point than Sunrise. Or maybe I'm being too harsh on myself? I don't know. What I do know is that I feel it's too early to go lynching someone for not saying anything. We're only just starting the second Day cycle, and Sunrise has now claimed he has computer problems. As nearly-foolproof a defense as that is, I think it's wrong to paint his statements as anything but genuine, and thus give him the time he needs to join in. Others may not agree with me (his absence, whatever the reason, is not helping the Village any at this point), but frankly I'm willing to give him one more day to throw his hat into the ring. There ARE better suspects out there at the moment, and I'd rather shoot for a more likely 'Wolf than a random shot in the dark - it worked the first time, right?

And for last, suspect anyone not voting against Sandover

Yep, I'm included in the list I know I'm innocent, but rest of the villagers naturally don't. Still, I will eat my hat if there are no wolfs voting for sandover!

Perfect delivery. Play the devil's advocate, so it throws off any suspicions towards you. Nice cover. I'm not buying it, though.

Moving on.

Funny how everyone's sure MJW is the baner and we didn't have to scry him

I'm not sure he's the Baner. I'm not sure he's NOT the Baner. At this point, it's safe to assume he is, until our Seer can scry him (later on - there's too many better targets out there right now) and get that info out safely. If he is the Baner, the best thing he can do is protect himself. If he's not, he's in no position to hurt any Villagers. He's a non-issue as far as I'm concerned. A couple days from now he'll be worth examining closer, but for now he's only a distraction.

BURN HIM!

Edit: Jokes aside, villager shouldn't be afraid to post. For example I'm now collecting some votes partially because of my loud mouth (?) and mostly because people might think differently than I do. In the worst case scenario, I might be hanged at some point, but this still leaves all the previous conversations intact. So death confirms your status and others can then look back in time and draw new conclusions for possible suspects. Of course no one wants to die, but it's still not a lose-lose situation for the village.

Part of the strategy in this is playing most of your cards out in the open, and keeping a few in reserve. That's how you win. I didn't make many public cries for lynching Sandover - I presented the evidence as best I could, and let people come to their own conclusions. A few people who were on the fence, but to me seemed trustworthy enough, I reached out to in private to persuade them to lynch him - or try, anyway. It was a gamble. It put myself at risk, but on the same token, if the people I went to suddenly changed over to me, it would prove they weren't nearly as trustworthy, so even if it cost me there was still the potential for gain. Ultimately, it was this combination that led us to our first 'Wolf kill - on the first day. Can it not be stressed how huge this is? How long was it before the first 'Wolf bit the dust in the last game? Yet we've nailed one on our first day. I'm not trying to put myself in the limelight for that, merely point out how HUGE a victory that is for us.

In battle, you don't lay out all your strategies for your enemies to see. You present your main army, up front, so that he may meet them - and then you flank him. If you can't see that as a valid, vital strategy, you're either a poor tactician, or a 'Wolf trying to undermine our tactics - PROVEN tactics.

Oh, and you still haven't answered any accusations against you - or did I miss that somewhere?

Roland I really like to read your posts despite the fact that it take some time to read through, understand it and get to the core .

Thank you. I can't say you're going to like this one, then, but hopefully you can wade through it.

Well someone doesn't become automatically suspect because he thinks I'm a wolf nor does helping me to survive makes one holy. Afterall your first 2 well written essays were to my defense and I think it is very likely that without you I might have danced the hemp-fandango on Day1.

While I doubt you would have been lynched, it's prudent to me to present ALL evidence - both for Villagers, and against 'Wolves. Think of it as a sword and shield - one without the other leaves the user weaker, more often than not. I just don't have any reason to suspect you at this point, nor Lewwyn, nor a slew of others. So, I say as much, and why. Same as I do for people whom I think are 'Wolves.

I don't subscribe to your 'the wolves gained little' argument. First even the best plans can go awry second look at the effects. Lewwyn had exactly one vote against him at the end of day1. And currently there are exactly 0 votes to lynch Lewwyn. Add to this that your essays do carry a lot of weight and I doubt anybody will vote 'lynch Lewwyn' come the end of day2.

Yes, the best plans can go awry - look at what I did at the end of yesterday! Second... I'm not sure what you're trying to say here? I'm sorry. I'll have to look back and see what you're referring to, I guess. No matter.

This is the very core of my problem. You didn't know that MJW was safe. You had absolutly no guarrantee that not more people would turn and follow you and vote for MJW. Afterall 3 people did vote after you made your switch so there was more than enough time for several others too.

First off, yes, I did know that MJW was safe. I was actively watching this whole ordeal down to the last second of the Day, and a full 20 minutes afterwards - until Fire & Ice posted. Secondly, I had every guarantee that not ENOUGH people would follow my lead - I saw who was on, who could vote, etc. and did the math - there was no way to lynch MJW and save Sandover. Lynching Sareln, on the other hand... well, that was a nailbiter. Thirdly, unless I'm mistaken, at most ONE person followed my lead on MJW. Gaspar switched first. I waited until the last few minutes before switching my vote. Ug had his vote on MJW long before either of us, if I recall. So... NO ONE followed my lead. Absolutely no one.

I could level the accusation that you're simply trying to sow discord with this latest comment, but frankly I don't believe that for a second. I think you are mistaken on a few points, but that generally you're greatly concerned that what happened could have lynched MJW and saved Sandover - understandable, if mistaken. You seem to be fairly level-headed and reasonable, and you do your best to explain your reasons. I hope I've done enough to open your eyes, and everyone else's, that though I did make a foolish move, it was by no means not calculated. I erred, but I erred with conviction and caution.

Again I can follow your reason to switch from sandover. I can follow your reason to distrust MJW. But I absolutly can't follow your: I knew he would be save so it didn't matter that I voted for him.
If you , Ug and Gaspar are all simple villagers then a swing of the 6 wolves would have killed our Baner.

Not enough time to organize such a swing. Even if there was, it would guarantee pulling votes off Sareln to do so - and then, if MJW would have been found to be a Villager, every single person who moved from Sareln to MJW would be suspect. Tell me, do you honestly believe it's worth risking almost the entire 'Wolf team just to save one lost cause? Especially when they had a much better target already lined up (Sarlen)? Can ANYONE buy that argument?

You're rational. You're well-reasoned. Look that over and tell me how it would have made any sense. Even if, for some horrendously foolish reason they did so, they still had mere minutes to coordinate such a tactic. That's considering they even caught the small shift to MJW - and with so little time left, they probably didn't. Moreover, MJW can serve them far better alive than dead. Sareln was of NO use to them, doubly so when he turned martyr.

As I like the sound of it it could well be that I have reiterated myself there . But you are right repetition doesn't increase credibility.

Glad we agree! I still don't think you're a 'Wolf, but trying to paint me as the Devil isn't exactly warming me up to you.

Now I can't help it but I don't like the sound of that. We know from game 1 that the innocent villagers were killed by other villagers. Take a look at Day 2 there: Cyneheard(villagers) got lynched and the Masons played a huge role in that.

The Villagers there didn't get a 'Wolf kill on their first Day, either. Nor on their Second, nor Third, if I recall correctly. There is wisdom in viewing the past, but not so much in repeating it - all the time, anyway.

Either you believe me or you don't. Either way I can see victory for us. I understand what you're saying - it was a gamble for me to even post such words. And I agree, not EVERYONE who votes to lynch an innocent is a 'Wolf, just as not everyone who votes to lynch a 'Wolf is a Villager. It's the way it's done, and the reasoning behind it, that proves 'Wolf or Villager. I should hope that everyone here knows that, and understands it well - otherwise, who will carry the torch when I inevitably am killed?

As I can't be sure that I start to get tunnel vison against Roland I implore all to read Rolands and my post and give your thoughts and your general opinions.

See what I mean when I say you seem reasonable, logical, and do your best to explain your thoughts - however brief you may be most times? For all your attempts to paint me as the bad guy, I have to say you've done for more to paint yourself as a good guy! I only hope I'm not wrong about that! If I am, though, you'll slip up sooner or later, and I'll find it.

Serdoa, i may be a bit of a hypocrite, but so far you don't seem to have posted a whole lot of useful information. In fact, thus far, the only real participation i can see is you trying to sav Sandover at the end.

for that reason, my vote is on Serdoa for now.

And there's the other potential 'Wolf candidate. This post is dragging on, so I don't really feel like combing through the whole thread in an effort to quote each of his posts, but I'll summarize as best I can:

Serdoa has been one of the most vocal people in the Village, and yet for most of the first 2 days he was an excellent fence sitter. He never posted much that would make him suspicious. As the pressure increased on Sandover, Serdoa took a cautionary position between him and I, but only stayed there long enough to avoid suspicion. He then swung over to feeling I was not to be trusted, sharing similar thoughts as Sandover. Moreover, he threw in after Sandover to try and lynch Sareln - the only chance he had to save Sandover.

Hypocrite is the word to go for here, you are right with that. I wonder, did you state that only so that nobody would double check on what exactly you did on Day 1? As in "barely anything". I am pretty sure that I have posted more then you and tried to help more then you did.

As for your accusation: Yes, without doubt, I have talked about not taking the chance to maybe kill the Baner. As did several other people as well. But thats exactly what I said earlier, no matter what you do, it can always be twisted and stated "Thats wolf behaviour". If I would be in the same situation again, with the knowledge I had at that time, I would again vote not to kill Sandover. I remember MANY people talking about how important the Baner is. It seemed for me quite locigal that we should not kill one who could be the Baner.

Now he comes out swinging against Kyan, sowing more discord and dissension amongst the ranks. He's making a very nice cover for himself int he process, too.

Then he adds this little gem:

As for my vote, I wanted to wait and see whats written here, but decided against that. Instead I am voting for sunrise089. Not talking doesn't help anyone, no matter if he is a villager or a wolf.

Huh? The man who was so concerned about playing it safe for 75% of the first Day cycle, and who continued that trend by not wanting to lynch a potential Baner - but stuck his neck out to condemn anyone who was willing to take that risk; a risk, I might add, that lynched a 'Wolf on the very first day - is now throwing all caution to the wind, and voting to lynch someone simply because they're not talking?

. . .

I had my suspicions about Sunrise before now, but your actions here are moving me away from that idea for now. Moreover, Sunrise is still an unknown, and will continue to be so for most of this Day cycle. As such, I'm certainly not willing to risk lynching someone simply because they're quiet - especially since he has valid reasons for being so. Your behavior, both yesterday and today, however, is putting you squarely in my sights. You've been my #1 suspect since the lynching of Sandover, and now you're doing even more to keep yourself there. I was waiting to post my thoughts on you for later today, to try and build an open-and-shut case (as I tried to do with Sandover), but given what's falling into place now I'm compelled to act.

Meiz and Serdoa, you two are both my top 'Wolf suspects. I think the evidence clearly shows it, and even if I'm wrong about one of you (highly unlikely, but possible), it's even more unlikely that I'm wrong about the other. As such...

Meiz, I am voting for you for the time being. It's virtually a 50/50 shot at this point, but given the momentum behind you, I want to keep the pressure up. Besides, I want Serdoa to out himself for me a little more - makes my job of nailing you 'Wolves that much easier.

[Roland]

Lynch Votes:
7 = Sunrise089: Uberfish, Scooter, MJW, Ug the Barbarian, Meiz, Serdoa, Luddite
4 = Meiz: Lewwyn, Gaspar, Sunrise089, Roland
1 = Kyan: Serdoa
1 = Serdoa: Kyan
1 = Gaspar: Dantski

Summary of Changes:
MJW: Voted for Kyan, switched to Sunrise089
Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz, switched to Sunrise089
Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089, switched to Kyan

Sequence of Events:
1) Uberfish: Voted for Sunrise089
2) MJW: Voted for Kyan
3) Scooter: Voted for Sunrise089
4) Lewwyn: Voted for Meiz
5) Gaspar: Voted for Meiz
6) MJW: Switched to Sunrise089
7) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz
8) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Sunrise089
9) Meiz: Voted for Sunrise089
10) Kyan: Voted for Serdoa
11) Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089
12) Luddite: Voted for Sunrise089
13) Dantski: Voted for Gaspar
14) Sunrise089: Voted for Meiz
15) Serdoa: Switched to Kyan
16) Roland: Voted for Meiz

EDIT:
Forgot to put in numbers.

[Serdoa]

Well, Roland, I will try to explain as good as I can.

1. Why did I not vote for Sandover but Sareln?

Because I read here that the Baner is an important role. I have never played this game before so if several players say the Baner is important I believe them. And thinking about it I can see why he is - especially that post from uberfish that the wolves in WW1 had a hard time because they could not take out whoever they wanted made that clear for me. So I decided that I would not take a 50/50 shot - something you also did not want to do and I am sure you have invested more thought and time then I did (openly admitted).

2. Why do I vote for sunrise when I am so cautious?

My cautiouness was directed at not killing the Baner. I would have killed Sareln who I believed to be a villager for the greater good. And the same goes now for sunrise. He might be a villager, he might be a wolf. But being as quiet as he was, I believed it is for the greater good to get rid of him. Again because several players (also in WW1 and the spoiler-thread for WW1) stated that the quiet players - even if villagers - really hurt the village.

Yes, I might give too much about what others say but without any experience I felt this was the right way to do it. The thing is you now have made a very good case for why Meiz is a wolf and why it makes more sense to lynch him than sunrise, but if I switch now - because I believe you - you will think that I am a wolf, trying to save himself. If I stay with sunrise you will ask why I don't switch and again say I am wolf. And if I unvote, then you call me a fence-sitter and therefore a wolf waiting to cast on the most probable lynch-target which is not a wolf. What I am supposed to do then? Hoping that someone will believe me, when I am not even able to bring down to paper what I think because I simply can't type it out they way I would like too? If you want to get me lynched do so - I probably shouldn't have asked to play anyway, not being able to get my thoughts laid out properly in English and all that. Still, I will keep my hope that you realize that I have done nothing especially wolf-like and that I also did not do that much differently then others (scooter comes to my mind, but I am sure there are some others too).

[Serdoa]

3. Why did I vote for Kyan

Because I was angry with him - yeah, I am emotional more often then is good for me. As can be seen in my last post, I had even forgotten that I voted for him till I saw Rolands tally. And even that this will probably in some way, as stated in my last post, make me look suspicious:

no vote

[Sareln]

Then later Meiz begins the lynching of Sareln (who voted for himself to save Sandover! confused villager if ever there was one.) Sandover later JOINS in on lynching Sareln even though it was started by Meiz who he "believed" was a wolf. Further, looking through Meiz's posts I think they are consistent with Sandover in terms of tone and berevity.

Yes, I'm lagging by a good 5 pages :neenernee

It wasn't that confused. I knew that I was a villager (nothing special) and that we were going to be taking a crazy risk on lynching Sandover (potential Baner), and didn't suspect him strongly enough as a wolf. At the time I had the second highest vote total and therefore if we wanted to put off the Sandover vote, someone else was going to need to take a bullet (or a rope, as it were). I didn't have any really good reasons to offer up anyone else, so I offered myself instead.

Alrighty, back to reading.

[Irgy]

He also discourages people reading too much into what others post. But don't we want discussion and openness?

Just to quickly clarify what I meant: By all means post your deep analyses of people's motivations behind what they've posted. Just don't put too much faith into it. Most of the time people do it they get it wrong, even many of the times people are right it's for the wrong reasons.

Don't let that discourage you from posting them though. I agree the game needs it. In fact when I said that it was just half of my point as to why I was going with the vote for someone "quiet" rather than for someone "suspicious", the other half being exactly what you say - we want more openness and discussion.


My thoughts for today so far:

As I've said before, I don't play the psychological analysis game much, mostly because I'm not great at it, so I'm going to focus on where the votes were. And in particular where they finished up, as that's what really counts.

My theory here is simple. Whatever criterion you use to vote for people, the wolves can react to it to avoid the vote. So what I do is, rather than trying to guess what the wolves are doing, I just choose strategies that encourage them to do what we want them to do. Hence punishing quiet players on day one, it's not that the wolves can't counter it by being noisy, it's that the wolves have to be noisy to counter it. As a result, they have to open themselves up to making mistakes that others can pick up with their psychology.

So my approach for today is to punish people who voted to the wolves' benefit. Not so much because people who voted wrong are wolves, but because if wolves are punished for voting in their own interests, they can only counter it by voting against their interests. And that is profit for us. It sucks a little for the villagers, who don't really know who's interests they're voting in, but you have that problem with any strategy.

So, the final votes:

Great for wolves
Ug the barbarian, Gaspar, Roland
They voted for the person who, crazy as they are, is almost certainly the baner. I'm making an assumption here, but one I'm comfortable with.

Good for wolves
Meiz, Dantski, scooter, Serdoa, Sareln, Sandover, Uberfish
They voted for Sareln, who was the realistic alternative to the wolf Sandover.

Neutral
Rowain, sunrise
A no vote, and a solo vote for Lewwyn which is as good as a no vote.

Bad for wolves
Kyan, Lewwyn, Cyneheard, Luddite, Mr. Nice Guy, MJW, Irgy, haphazard, Selrahc
Voted for the wolf Sandover

This is mostly what I'll use to inform my vote. Note that it's not guaranteed to catch wolves, but nothing is, and at least when it fails it still helps. You can't be deterministic about it or the cost isn't worth the reward, but I can be deterministic about my own vote without making the lynch deterministic. And yes, I'm in my own "least suspicious" category

Being early days, I'll put a vote in my worst category, for Gaspar. If this doesn't eventually bring him up as a viable candidate I'll switch later, as I've said before I prefer my vote to count for something.

[Rowain]

Thank you. I can't say you're going to like this one, then, but hopefully you can wade through it.

Why should I not like it?! Just because you argue against my points? Nah that is what is needed -> Discussion. Sadly only one sofar has heard my call to read our posts and comment. I fear people start to ignore our posts at least most parts of it. This is dangerous.

Yes, the best plans can go awry - look at what I did at the end of yesterday! Second... I'm not sure what you're trying to say here? I'm sorry. I'll have to look back and see what you're referring to, I guess. No matter.

The second was to your argument ' The wolves gained little as still some people are suspecting Lewwyn'.

First off, yes, I did know that MJW was safe. I was actively watching this whole ordeal down to the last second of the Day, and a full 20 minutes afterwards - until Fire & Ice posted. Secondly, I had every guarantee that not ENOUGH people would follow my lead - I saw who was on, who could vote, etc. and did the math - there was no way to lynch MJW and save Sandover. Lynching Sareln, on the other hand... well, that was a nailbiter. Thirdly, unless I'm mistaken, at most ONE person followed my lead on MJW. Gaspar switched first. I waited until the last few minutes before switching my vote. Ug had his vote on MJW long before either of us, if I recall. So... NO ONE followed my lead. Absolutely no one.

I confess i didn't check the currently visiting the boards line. If you did and you made sure that there were not enough Guests to log in quickly and vote too I'm satisfied. I still think it was a great risk taken lightly.

Not enough time to organize such a swing. Even if there was, it would guarantee pulling votes off Sareln to do so - and then, if MJW would have been found to be a Villager, every single person who moved from Sareln to MJW would be suspect. Tell me, do you honestly believe it's worth risking almost the entire 'Wolf team just to save one lost cause? Especially when they had a much better target already lined up (Sarlen)? Can ANYONE buy that argument?

AFAIK there are such things as ICQ or someone might set up a teamspeak server. 5 minutes on TS are more then enough to organize a concerted action. About the suspicion: Would they be suspect? After all they could all claim the just followed your reasoning and lead so if anyone would have landed on the chop it would have been you at first. Then there are 2 possibilities.
a) you turn wolf now the switchers can claim that they believed you to be a genuine villager a thing which all people thought to be true.
b) you stay villager then they can say. you see he lead us and he was villager. Of course sandover would have been on the chop next but contrary to sunrise I'm the opinion that the trade Baner vs wolf favours the wolves.
But this is currently only academic as nothing bad happened. Contrary the result (1 dead wolf) of all the various moves is fantastic.

The Villagers there didn't get a 'Wolf kill on their first Day, either. Nor on their Second, nor Third, if I recall correctly. There is wisdom in viewing the past, but not so much in repeating it - all the time, anyway.

Day 3 they cought uberfish and day 4 sciz.

Either you believe me or you don't. Either way I can see victory for us. I understand what you're saying - it was a gamble for me to even post such words. And I agree, not EVERYONE who votes to lynch an innocent is a 'Wolf, just as not everyone who votes to lynch a 'Wolf is a Villager. It's the way it's done, and the reasoning behind it, that proves 'Wolf or Villager. I should hope that everyone here knows that, and understands it well - otherwise, who will carry the torch when I inevitably am killed?

I subscribe that no matter if we agree or not our discussion is a good thing I only wish others would participate more but at least things start to roll a bit.

Glad we agree! I still don't think you're a 'Wolf, but trying to paint me as the Devil isn't exactly warming me up to you.

And still you flatter me with:

See what I mean when I say you seem reasonable, logical, and do your best to explain your thoughts - however brief you may be most times?

I wonder if I now say the Devil is a known flatterer what you will call me next :neenernee:neenernee


seriously: I think I reduce my suspicion of you in the MJW-case but there is now another thing which I don't like. You are currently targetting Meiz (He was not very high on my list till now so I have to read the whole thread again) and you are again aligned with Gaspar and Lewwyn. Especially considering that Gaspar moved against MJW long before you.

[Roland]

Lynch Votes:
6 = Sunrise089: Uberfish, Scooter, MJW, Ug the Barbarian, Meiz, Luddite
4 = Meiz: Lewwyn, Gaspar, Sunrise089, Roland
2 = Gaspar: Dantski, Irgy
1 = Serdoa: Kyan

No Votes:
haphazard1
Mr. Nice Guy
Rowain
Sareln
Selrahc
Serdoa

Summary of Changes:
MJW: Voted for Kyan, switched to Sunrise089
Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz, switched to Sunrise089
Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089, switched to Kyan, switched to No Vote

Sequence of Events:
1) Uberfish: Voted for Sunrise089
2) MJW: Voted for Kyan
3) Scooter: Voted for Sunrise089
4) Lewwyn: Voted for Meiz
5) Gaspar: Voted for Meiz
6) MJW: Switched to Sunrise089
7) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz
8) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Sunrise089
9) Meiz: Voted for Sunrise089
10) Kyan: Voted for Serdoa
11) Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089
12) Luddite: Voted for Sunrise089
13) Dantski: Voted for Gaspar
14) Sunrise089: Voted for Meiz
15) Serdoa: Switched to Kyan
16) Roland: Voted for Meiz
17) Serdoa: Switched to No Vote
18) Irgy: Voted for Gaspar

[Gaspar]

I have no interest in posting to defend myself heartily against the current accusations, particularly as I have stated my intent to play this game my own way. I believe there is a strategy for these early days, and I believe there is a strategy for the latter days. Even should I not live to see the latter days, I feel confident my actions of the early days will have contributed positively to a villager win, which is my only goal. (Well Ok, I would like to avoid being hanged as well, but its a much lesser goal.) I still do not intend to lay all my cards on the table, but I missed Rowain's comment about my (and Roland's) switch to MJW on day one. (In fairness, I sort of gloss over when I see a post accusing me. I know I'm innocent so I tend just ignore the rest of it as the ramblings of the confused. I'm not particularly interested in confused villagers. Confused wolves, however, interest me greatly.)

I want Rowain, and for that matter, anyone else, to think about this scenario, that you outlined in your post:

Again I can follow your reason to switch from sandover. I can follow your reason to distrust MJW. But I absolutly can't follow your: I knew he would be save so it didn't matter that I voted for him.
If you , Ug and Gaspar are all simple villagers then a swing of the 6 wolves would have killed our Baner.

1. In the last hour I (and then Roland) switch to MJW.
2. 6 wolves see an opportunity to kill the presumed baner.
3. They all post to switch their votes, rapid fire, in the last 30 minutes before the deadline.
4. MJW is lynched, and is revealed as the baner.

Tell me what you see as point 5, anyone who really disliked this move. If your point 5 is "The Wolves win because our baner is dead" then you are extremely short-sighted. The power roles are useful, important. The most useful and important tool the village has is an informed and intelligent village. We could win this game without a single seer, baner, mayor or mason if we read intelligently and react appropriately. If you think a baner is more important than that, well, all I can really say is you don't understand the game very well. The baner is a tool. The quality of our collective perception is a tool. I weigh in strongly that the second is far more useful than the first. You are all free to feel differently.

I couldn't leave that alone, but beyond that, I have no intention of spelling out my thinking behind every single vote in public immediately. If that makes me a cipher and makes you want to lynch me, I can't control that. But its the best way I know how to try and win.