I haven't posted yet today.
|
Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread
|
|
Thoughts and a vote:
That I'm suspicious of Gaspar is nothing really new. His vote-switching on day1- especially his switching from sandover to MJW with alot of time left. 3 of the 9 votes that condemned sandover were cast after Gaspars switch so at this time there was a really high chance that sandover gets saved and maybe MJW swings from the gallow. Before the deadline he makes a last attempt to save sandover with: Gaspar Wrote:I really think lynching Sandover at this point is a mistake, I think his appeals were more earnest, and he only outed himself after real pressure.And all I can say is wow. This sounds almost too wolfish to come from a real wolf. Sandover is lynched look at this nice post: Gaspar Wrote:As far as what else has gone on since then, not much. I was distracted on Day 1 by all of the baner nonsense, and so I didn't spend enough time looking at what everyone else did. Roland's walls of text also did a lot to distract me (in a good way, as it turned out.) So I'm going to spend a little time figuring out what I should have learned, and I'll post something more substantive later. Let me just say this: There's more than one way to catch a wolf. Long, drawn out reasonings examining everything someone said is one. Analyzing vote histories is another. Those are not the only two options though. I'm not interested in explaining that in this public forum at this time, not with so many wolves still amongst us. Rest assured, I am on team village, I want to win, and I'm going to do everything I can to make that happen.He accuses Meiz without offering any explanation, he brings no arguments at all. He devined that Meiz is a wolf. But if he has so great methods to name wolfs out of thin air why haver they failed him on day1? BTW in the first part of this post Gaspar still tries to discredit MJW (not very hard to do I admit) Gaspar Wrote:I have no interest in posting to defend myself heartily against the current accusations, particularly as I have stated my intent to play this game my own way. No sorry that is wrong. The best chance for us is to work together, to discuss actions and reasons because talking is what will show wolves. An attitude of 'Gaspar locuta - cause finita' is useless for us villagers. Of course it might work for someone playing 'lone wolf' The only excuse I can see for your actions is that they sound a bit too wolvish to come from a real wolf but perhaps thats your early game-tactic. So my vote goes to Gaspar Gaspar Wrote:I want Rowain, and for that matter, anyone else, to think about this scenario, that you outlined in your post: You start on a wrong time. The 6 wolves needed to kill MJW is right for Roland and one reason why I'm far less suspicious about him compared to the beginning of the day. But your switch reduced sandover to 6 votes while Sareln had still 5 so far fewer wolves were needed to save sandover and kill either Sareln or MJW. It was only after your switch that the hammer really started to fall on sandover -> wolfplay gone awry? Gaspar Wrote:I couldn't leave that alone, but beyond that, I have no intention of spelling out my thinking behind every single vote in public immediately. If that makes me a cipher and makes you want to lynch me, I can't control that. But its the best way I know how to try and win. I can only say you come across extremly presumtuous. Anyway I'll be off for most of the day but I should be back approximatly 2 hours before deadline. Have a nice sunday  .
haphazard1 Wrote:Gaspar, I just voted to lynch you because I think you are likely to be a wolf. But I have to completely agree with what you just posted. The methond that I used that almost got me mod killed would not have been possible if I did not get the baner PM on turn zero... The devil was supposed to be a serect role. It seems unfair that one side have serect power roles. It is clear to at least one ww that the town has a serect role. Sunrise never posts so I don't think that points to him being a WW. I think Gasper is not Guity due to his fast and emotional response.
Lynch Votes:
5 = Sunrise089: Uberfish, Scooter, Ug the Barbarian, Meiz, Luddite 5 = Meiz: Lewwyn, Gaspar, Sunrise089, Roland, MJW 5 = Gaspar: Dantski, Irgy, haphazard1, Mr. Nice Guy, Rowain 1 = Serdoa: Kyan No Votes: Sareln Selrahc Serdoa Summary of Changes: MJW: Voted for Kyan, switched to Sunrise089, switched to Meiz Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz, switched to Sunrise089 Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089, switched to Kyan, switched to No Vote Sequence of Events: 1) Uberfish: Voted for Sunrise089 2) MJW: Voted for Kyan 3) Scooter: Voted for Sunrise089 4) Lewwyn: Voted for Meiz 5) Gaspar: Voted for Meiz 6) MJW: Switched to Sunrise089 7) Ug the Barbarian: Voted for Meiz 8) Ug the Barbarian: Switched to Sunrise089 9) Meiz: Voted for Sunrise089 10) Kyan: Voted for Serdoa 11) Serdoa: Voted for Sunrise089 12) Luddite: Voted for Sunrise089 13) Dantski: Voted for Gaspar 14) Sunrise089: Voted for Meiz 15) Serdoa: Switched to Kyan 16) Roland: Voted for Meiz 17) Serdoa: Switched to No Vote 18) Irgy: Voted for Gaspar 19) MJW: Switched to Meiz 20) haphazard1: Voted for Gaspar 21) Mr. Nice Guy: Voted for Gaspar 22) Rowain: Voted for Gaspar Roland Wrote:4) He starts to seriously suspect Sandover. Two posts later, his suspicions are high - yet he doesn't switch off Sareln? THAT is suspicious, to me. It reeks of being a 'Wolf trying to gain credibility. And, it gets better. Once Sandover drops the Baner bomb, he takes the position of not wanting to kill either potential Baner - so he keeps it on Sareln, the only other lynch vote that can possibly save Sandover. You'll find it all here: I was heavily suspecting Sandover, but I was also far from sure. MJW's actions had been very dodgy as well. So I was not sure, needed more time to think and we were not close to a deadline yet. At this point I found no reason to switch my vote off from Sareln. So I started to go through both of their posts, trying to find better evidence. In my mind, Sandovers certainty (not scrying MJW, getting the truth out eventually and so on) could be explained with him being the Baner, as likely as being a wolf. MJW had also stated that he thought Rowains suggestion to scrye him as a way to get him killed. That _is_ suspicious! It felt like many people were certain of Sandovers guilt, while I wasn't, so I wanted to point out that him being the Baner is not an impossible option, and we should think it really carefully. Unfortunately there was only 2 hours left in clock, so you could say I almost started to panic  Roland Wrote:5) He then goes on to try to defend the notion that we shouldn't kill EITHER Baner. A safe move, as I stated myself, but let's venture a bit further. Now he starts attacking anyone who's willing to lynch Sandover because it runs the risk of a 50/50 shot of killing the Baner. Fine. Still a completely safe position to be in, but sticking his neck out just a little further. He also casts a vote for Sunrise as mayor (while Selrahc practically has it in the bag at this point) - really? No real explanation, just moving from MJW as Mayor to Sunrise because he doesn't trust MJW anymore (not that I did, either at that point). He even goes so far as to apologize to Sareln, saying he truly believes he's a Villager. Yes, indeed, if I was a 'Wolf, I'd truly believe someone was a Villager, too - I'd know! I've stated before why killing neither of them seemed like a best solution at the time, and I'll stick with that. I think "attacking" is a bit strong word, though... For Mayor vote, it's clear why I didn't want MJW in that position anymore. Thinking again, I could have just chose "no vote", but honestly that thought never occurred to me. There were more pressing issues going on at the time, so choosing sunrise was another 50/50 shot (opponent being Sehlrac), solely based on gut feeling. But I'm starting to suspect that there might be something wrong with my gut feeling, seeing that Sandover turned out to be a wolf, and my vote is currently against sunrise  Regarding Sareln, I just cannot see a wolf acting like he did. So in my humble opinion there are other explanations for saying this than being a wolf and knowing it for sure... I guess you used the "he'd know!" argument because of my post regarding Mr. Nice Guy. Oh the irony!  --- Regarding Mr. Nice Guy Roland Wrote:The situation was fairly certain for several people. That's not to say it wasn't equally uncertain for many others, but to try and draw suspicion against Mr. Nice Guy based solely upon the fact that he believed, truly, Sandover was a 'Wolf is... again, flimsy evidence. If anything, I should be a bigger subject to you, for switching off at the last moment - against the OTHER Baner potential. Roland Wrote:Ever heard of faith? Faith in oneself, and faith in others? Why do some people believe in God? Because they just "know". I truly believed Sandover was a wolf. I presented all the evidence as I saw it, and because of that other people believed he was a 'Wolf, too. Sandover's actions were, as I illustrated, the perfect actions for a 'Wolf to take - if he was truly the Baner, he should have spoke up sooner. The longer he waited, the more suspicion it cast upon him (see the Mason argument from WW1). First of all you're right, I don't have any hard evidence (anyone who has, please present them immediately and make it easy for us! ). If villagers should only give out their thoughts when having hard evidence against someone, there would not be much discussion, and therefore there would not be any evidence presented later.If someone feels I'm on a wrong track, I expect them to point it out. If it's convincing, I have no problems admitting that I might have been wrong. So my thought is that Mr. Nice Guy sounded too sure of Sandovers guilt. I still find it odd, that he started to paint targets for people not voting against Sandover _before_ the results were in. You are defending him based on the fact that he voted against Sandover. Are you saying that anyone who voted against him is above suspicion? You also talk about faith (yes, I've heard of it ). Wolfs will have it easy, if they can justify their actions "by having faith". I'd rather hear the logic and the thought process that led them to this conclusion.Roland Wrote:Again, not trying to criticize here, just pointing out things as I see them. You seem to be trying to slowly build a case against Mr. Nice Guy - someone who helped kill a 'Wolf, when you yourself would not. Moreover, you tried to kill someone who everyone here now believes to be innocent - and wouldn't a 'Wolf already know if Sareln was a Villager or not? Now you find yourself on the chopping block, and instead of addressing people's accusations you start throwing some out (in a very low-key, almost unnoticeable fashion) about someone who was instrumental to killing a 'Wolf? In my opinion I have addressed peoples accusations by explaining my actions on post #341. You can always ask in more specific, and I will try to explain my reasoning as good as I can. Btw. At that time the accusations were by Lewwyn and Gaspar: "Sandover picked Rowain and Meiz as wolves but then he voted for Rowain. Its perfect throw suspicion on one wolf and one villager and then lynch the villager. Later in defense he voted for Meiz in oreder to throw me off of him as I was suspicious of Meiz. Then later Meiz begins the lynching of Sareln (who voted for himself to save Sandover! confused villager if ever there was one.) Sandover later JOINS in on lynching Sareln even though it was started by Meiz who he "believed" was a wolf. Further, looking through Meiz's posts I think they are consistent with Sandover in terms of tone and berevity." "And, on that note... Meiz" Roland Wrote:Where are you going with this, exactly? Are you hinting, as I think you are, that Mr. Nice Guy is in fact a 'Wolf, who tried to gain credibility with the town by throwing his brother down for the count? Really? On what grounds can you make that stick? I can see no conceivable way that idea makes MORE sense than other, safer plays. If anything, if that was the case the BEST thing he could do - to save Sandover AND avoid suspicion - is cast a null vote! Instead, he stuck to his convictions and killed a 'Wolf, while you yourself switched over to killing a probable Villager! Yes, hindsight is wonderful and it's all so easy to say that none of this was that certain back then - but then, here you are trying to say it WAS, for someone else. On that notion, it's even easier to lay that same accusation against you. I have to disagree with this. It doesn't make any sense, that wolfs would all vote for anyone else than another wolf. Again I get a feeling that you think everyone voting for Sandover is above suspicion. I am far from certain that Mr. Nice Guy is actually a wolf. So I would like to hear his thoughts on what let him to be absolutely certain of Sandovers guilt. I will draw my new conclusions based on his answer. Roland Wrote:Is it? Really? You're a far better candidate for 'Wolf than Sunrise, but then, why would you vote for yourself? Preposterous. Still, I can think of at least one other person who makes a very compelling case for a 'Wolf, besides you - and, as I've demonstrated, even I make a better target for lynching at this point than Sunrise. Or maybe I'm being too harsh on myself? I don't know. What I do know is that I feel it's too early to go lynching someone for not saying anything. We're only just starting the second Day cycle, and Sunrise has now claimed he has computer problems. As nearly-foolproof a defense as that is, I think it's wrong to paint his statements as anything but genuine, and thus give him the time he needs to join in. Others may not agree with me (his absence, whatever the reason, is not helping the Village any at this point), but frankly I'm willing to give him one more day to throw his hat into the ring. There ARE better suspects out there at the moment, and I'd rather shoot for a more likely 'Wolf than a random shot in the dark - it worked the first time, right? You know, part of the idea of voting is to make people speak up. And my vote was before I had even heard of his computer problems. Voting for a guy who has not contributed in anyway for the first 48 hours is natural IMO. Roland Wrote:Oh, and you still haven't answered any accusations against you - or did I miss that somewhere? I thought I had... MJW (ya that one) Wrote:Gasper and LW attacked Miez very early after the kill very suddenly. They are both wolves or Miez is a wolf playing baddly. I vote Miez because if he is a villagar; Gasper and LW can be lyched. Yaiks Well, if you end up lynching me, I do hope it points out the wolfs.Ok, I have to take a break now. I will definitely be back with more thoughts (good or bad )
Rowain Wrote:You start on a wrong time. The 6 wolves needed to kill MJW is right for Roland and one reason why I'm far less suspicious about him compared to the beginning of the day. But your switch reduced sandover to 6 votes while Sareln had still 5 so far fewer wolves were needed to save sandover and kill either Sareln or MJW. It was only after your switch that the hammer really started to fall on sandover -> wolfplay gone awry? It's time to just air this out: I discussed the switch to MJW with Gaspar before it went down - for either of us. It was my thought, my call. Gaspar jumped on board, with the notion that 1) MJW was being a fool, and rapidly rising as a suspect, 2) We may very well be better off without MJW at that point, even if he was the Baner, and 3) giving the 'Wolves some false hope might lure them out into the open - a bold move, and extremely risky for the 'Wolves, but he thought it was worth the shot. After all, at the time we didn't have much to lose. The plan was to have him throw out his vote onto MJW and see who else bit. We were both to watch the thread very carefully up until the end. I can't speak for Gaspar on that front, but I can say I was on it every second until the end. I calculated out the votes in my head more times than I care to recall - that's why I felt "safe enough" changing my vote at the last second. I still don't like my move there - I regret it, and for more than just losing credibility over it: it was just a dumb move, plain and simple, and for all the wrong reasons. So, now that that's out in the open, I find myself once again sticking my neck out - risking my credibility on a bold move. I'll get to my reasoning very soon. Rowain Wrote:I can only say you come across extremly presumtuous. He does, doesn't he? Definitely no arguing that. Personally, I think that's just his style - for better or worse. It holds up in private as well as public, for what it's worth. Can't say I'm in favor of said style, but... well, far be it from me to judge someone's personality.Rowain Wrote:Anyway I'll be off for most of the day but I should be back approximatly 2 hours before deadline. Have a nice sunday Oh goodie. Just in time to see if things are going to go awry. Well, now that that's out of the way, let me cut to the chase: I'm seeing a trend here, and a big window opening for the 'Wolves to take out 2 Villagers in one go. Allow me to explain: - Dantski fires off the first shot at Gaspar. I can't say he didn't have his reasons, nor am I accusing Dantski of being a 'Wolf - as far as I'm concerned, he's 100% neutral. 5 accusations were thrown out within the first few hours of the Day, so it's not like he's jumping the gun here, either. - Irgy follows up with his own take on things, some time later. More reasoned arguments than Dantski, I believe, and he's proven to be fairly level-headed thus far - for all that we can read of him given his low posts. Much like Dantski, he's firmly in the neutral camp for me. - What follows is what truly disturbs me: 3 people whom I strongly suspect to be Villagers all pile on, in succession, to Gaspar. Now, I don't think there's any collusion going on behind the scenes there - or at least, I've not seen any reason to suspect there has been. However, that doesn't change the bottom line: Gaspar has gone from a nobody shot-in-the-dark to a real potential kill, and that worries me. I don't have a great read on Gaspar. Others have made some valid points about how he's coming across, and I can honestly say I think he's digging his own grave, but I can at least understand what he's trying to do - and I think it's working. Unfortunately, at this point I'm not willing to risk losing him - a neutral camp who has done enough for me to trust him up to this point - just so he can have his fun with his strategies. If I'm right in what I suspect, his strategy will have payed off - at the cost of his own life. If I'm wrong... we lynch another 'Wolf, one who flew under my radar, and all is well. Let he show you what I see. We have a 3-way tie at 5 votes right now. Meiz is tucked onto Sunrise - I doubt he'll move anytime soon, but if he does he'll have the perfect cover to jump on Gaspar with little question to his motives, until after we get the lynch results, anyway. Serdoa has been forced to a Null Vote - a very safe move at this point, and although he could easily swing onto Gaspar, too, he'll be just as suspect as Meiz, if not more so. Still, that's two potential votes that are more than enough to break the current tie - bringing Gaspar to a potential 7 (out of 19) - with 2 more people left unaccounted for. Now, let's take this a bit further. Since those two other people are, in my mind, very likely to be Villagers, we don't really know how they're going to swing - and thus far, I'm seeing a trend of Probable Villagers all jumping on Gaspar (Not Good). But, let's assume the worst - they both are swayed by the "evidence" presented up to now, and pile onto Gaspar. That brings his vote count up to 9 - one vote away from a majority, and the most insulated cover the 'Wolves are going to get. All it would take is for one sleeper 'Wolf to switch over and voila! Gaspar goes down in flames, and even if we find out he's a Villager, we have barely any more evidence to convict the 'Wolves than we do now - and they have free reign to reduce our numbers even more. In that scenario, we'd go from a 14-person Village (out of 19) to a 12-person Village (out of 17) - OUCH. Bottom line: I don't trust Gaspar. I don't distrust him. I think he's been very useful to this point, even if only for my own personal ends, and I think I know what his strategy is - and it's useful for the whole Village. Moreover, his strategy as I see it may very well be working - only no one else will probably see what it was, and thus we'll lose the whole point of utilizing it. What worries me is how easily this can turn into a win-win for the 'Wolves. Gaspar has about a 65% chance of being a Villager, in my mind - that's far enough above 50/50 to be worth sticking my neck out for, doubly so when he was instrumental in helping me nail down Sandover, and triply so when I think I've found the perfect play for the 'Wolves at this point. I'm not expecting any of you to suddenly "see the light" and change off Gaspar - at best, I'm hoping I don't lose too much credibility here, as I know I lost a great deal with that MJW stunt. All I'm doing is illustrating what I see - same as I've always done - and asking for caution by the remaining players. This is rapidly becoming a far too easy swing to a guaranteed kill, with way too much cover for the 'Wolves to hide under for me to be anything but nervous about this. It should be worth noting that Sunrise isn't in a much better position at this point. While I don't think the 'Wolves will have the numbers to kill him, should their plans go awry with Gaspar, I still think it's worth keeping an eye on. With just under 12 hours left in this Day cycle, things are going to heat up very soon - perhaps more than they did yesterday (although that would be tough to top  ).
|
