Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Serdoa]

I don't understand you guys. It is practically impossible to vote without somebody coming forward and crying "Wolf!!!". Roland at least presents thoughts which you can answer too (as I did), but others here (Kyan, now Lewwyn) are simply not adding anything to the discussion except for accusing people without having any arguments except for "You voted for someone I feel is innocent". Hey, newsflash: It is probably impossible not to vote for some innocent at some time in this game...

Anyway, as for the actual discussion:

I don't believe in Gaspar, I don't believe in Meiz. From my point of view both could be wolves, both could be villagers. I do trust what Roland says - as in I believe he is a villager, not that he knows better then anyone else - but I can certainly also see the arguments uberfish made. Whom I can't understand at all is Lewwyn. Why is it wrong to question what Roland says? He himself asks us to do exactly that. Why do you think you make a better case for Meiz then for Gaspar simply because you were suspicious about him from day 1 on? That does not make any difference as far as evidence is concerned. I suspected neither of the two on day 1, so they are both innocent now?

Lastly, I feel really irritated right now that on one hand everyone asks for open discussion but on the other hand we have now the second post which tells us that everyone who votes now for Gaspar is probably a wolf. How are we supposed to discuss thoughts if people state already together with their thoughts that whoever does not agree probably is a wolf (sorry for formulating that very sloppy, I can't do it better, I hope you understand what I mean). I don't feel that way. The only "bad thing" everyone who is discussing now if we should vote for Meiz or Gaspar is doing, is that he disagrees with Roland and Lewwyn.

[luddite]

I don't understand you guys. It is practically impossible to vote without somebody coming forward and crying "Wolf!!!". Roland at least presents thoughts which you can answer too (as I did), but others here (Kyan, now Lewwyn) are simply not adding anything to the discussion except for accusing people without having any arguments except for "You voted for someone I feel is innocent". Hey, newsflash: It is probably impossible not to vote for some innocent at some time in this game...

speaking of "not adding anything to the discussion"...

I don't believe in Gaspar, I don't believe in Meiz. From my point of view both could be wolves, both could be villagers. I do trust what Roland says - as in I believe he is a villager, not that he knows better then anyone else - but I can certainly also see the arguments uberfish made.

Great, thanks, but this is not useful at all.

Whom I can't understand at all is Lewwyn. Why is it wrong to question what Roland says? He himself asks us to do exactly that. Why do you think you make a better case for Meiz then for Gaspar simply because you were suspicious about him from day 1 on? That does not make any difference as far as evidence is concerned. I suspected neither of the two on day 1, so they are both innocent now?

He never said anywhere, at all, that it was wrong to question Roland. He added to Roland's arguments, and pointed out some logical flaws in Uberfish's. I think he made good points. He wasn't trying to make a real argument there for lynching Meiz- that's already been done- he was pointing out that there's some suspiciously shifty voting going on to protect meiz.

Lastly, I feel really irritated right now that on one hand everyone asks for open discussion but on the other hand we have now the second post which tells us that everyone who votes now for Gaspar is probably a wolf. How are we supposed to discuss thoughts if people state already together with their thoughts that whoever does not agree probably is a wolf (sorry for formulating that very sloppy, I can't do it better, I hope you understand what I mean). I don't feel that way. The only "bad thing" everyone who is discussing now if we should vote for Meiz or Gaspar is doing, is that he disagrees with Roland and Lewwyn.

If you've got any good arguments for why Gaspar is more likely to be a wolf than Meiz, I'd love to hear them. However, weak and vague arguments can and will be used against you in a mob lynching.

[Selrahc]

From reading and weighing up the arguments, I'll go with
Gaspar

[Kyan]

I don't understand you guys. It is practically impossible to vote without somebody coming forward and crying "Wolf!!!". Roland at least presents thoughts which you can answer too (as I did), but others here (Kyan, now Lewwyn) are simply not adding anything to the discussion except for accusing people without having any arguments except for "You voted for someone I feel is innocent". Hey, newsflash: It is probably impossible not to vote for some innocent at some time in this game...

We all know Roland likes to write his essays. What else am i supposed to add? I can quote his messages if you'd like?

I don't believe in Gaspar, I don't believe in Meiz. From my point of view both could be wolves, both could be villagers. I do trust what Roland says - as in I believe he is a villager, not that he knows better then anyone else - but I can certainly also see the arguments uberfish made. Whom I can't understand at all is Lewwyn. Why is it wrong to question what Roland says? He himself asks us to do exactly that. Why do you think you make a better case for Meiz then for Gaspar simply because you were suspicious about him from day 1 on? That does not make any difference as far as evidence is concerned. I suspected neither of the two on day 1, so they are both innocent now?

That fence getting worn down by now mate?

How are we supposed to discuss thoughts if people state already together with their thoughts that whoever does not agree probably is a wolf (sorry for formulating that very sloppy, I can't do it better, I hope you understand what I mean).

I find your English to be very good and easily readable. Furthermore, i appreciate the effort you make to participate. I have nothing against you personally- i just think you're a wolf is all

[uberfish]

Uber your post is full of misdirection, pointing toward Roland being confused and not making sense. Implying greater sins than fallabilty (WW influence). Then you move straight to the expected vote, away from Meiz. Also I encourage people to notice the two step process of vote swinging used by Meiz and Ug. They know who they will vote for, but they are using a "no vote" buffer between swings in order to appear casual and create a look of innocence. I wasn't suspicious of Ug until this move, but it raises a flag for me.

I don't care if you (and Roland) consider me a potential wolf or not to be honest. I'd rather take a stand on which of the two main lynch candidates I consider more likely to be a wolf than keep my now-meaningless vote against Sunrise. (btw: it wasn't away from Meiz because I was never on Meiz.) I do object to you accusing me of deliberate misdirection though. I think it's actually pretty easy for wolves to infiltrate a network that's not based around seer scans and the like, and spread confusion. My stance against PMs is known and it's partially because I'm not a fan of this PM network playstyle. And something just doesn't feel right to me about Roland's overly strong defence of Gaspar.

As for the Meiz/Gaspar debate:

Sandover and MJW were both inconsistent in their defence (leading to the 50/50 baner situation). Meiz has been consistent as far as I can see and explains his reasoning, feel free to point out any slips he might have made if you spot them. Gaspar just says "I'm a villager and I'm not going to explain my strategy in public" which doesn't exactly inspire any confidence. Could be taken at face value, could equally easily be a wolf saying he's hiding behind PMs in order not to be publicly caught in an inconsistency. Roland's revelation that Gaspar and himself had been discussing the MJW flip on day 1 pushed me off the fence on Gaspar towards the probable wolf side.

Gaspar posted this scenario:

1. In the last hour I (and then Roland) switch to MJW.
2. 6 wolves see an opportunity to kill the presumed baner.
3. They all post to switch their votes, rapid fire, in the last 30 minutes before the deadline.
4. MJW is lynched, and is revealed as the baner.

Conveniently assuming that ONLY wolves would switch, in a blatantly obvious and coordinated fashion, and ignoring the possibility that villagers who believed Roland on Sandover originally would switch... Although fortunately as it turned out, Roland flipped very late, too late for MJW to become a realistic. Who knows what would have happened if he'd switched 1 hour before the deadline? So yes, I think if you want to look for wolf attempts to save Sandover, this is the most likely place.

[Gaspar]

For what its worth, I'm at work today, and so my posts will have to be reasonably short. I'm in charge, so I don't have to worry about getting caught per se, but it doesn't exactly set the world's greatest example for the staff.

I've said before I'm not going to spend a lot of time explaning all of my actions. I understand why that makes me a candidate for lynching. If you do lynch me, you'll learn a lot when you see I'm a villager. I think you can learn that from not lynching me and instead trusting me, but I can't control that. Mostly I'll just be disappointed to be out of the game, as I think its a lot of fun.

What I do want to clear up is any misconception that I'm playing the game out in PMs. Thus far, I've exchanged a couple PMs with Roland - one or two after his original Sandover post, where his vigor convinced me that the Sandover lynch was worth trying. Clearly, even if Sandover had not turned out to be a wolf, that was the case, as a lot was learned from the process. We were then both logged on in the last hour, and we exchanged a couple of PMs about what we thought was happening. I was visibily frustrated with MJW, and I told Roland that I was going to move my vote there, with the hopes that reactions from the crowd would have told me a lot. I was far from convinced that MJW was the baner, I was actually somewhat swayed by Sandover's far more silver tongue. My bad, I make mistakes. I'm not trying to imply that I'm smarter than anyone else. Mostly I'm just saying I'm willing to take some risks to get the truth out.

That's it. I'm not part of any trusted network. Nobody has told me who the seer, masons, devil, werewolves, baner, etc are. I don't know if there are any secret roles. I have no knowledge other than what is gleaned from this thread. If we get down to the wire, and it looks like I'm about to be lynched, I'll put my guess as to who the wolves are out in the thread, simply so its saved for posterity. I'm not willing to do that right now, because I think that information is better kept closer to the vest, so as to continue to allow the wolves to make mistakes. I'd rather get lynched than lose the game for team village. But rest assured, actually lynching me is not going to help us win. Not because I'm the world's greatest villager (though I'm far from the least helpful on this team) but simply because I'm not a wolf, so killing me brings us no further to victory.

[Serdoa]

Kyan, not sure what I should say - I am still not sure why I am considered a wolf to be honest. I probably am digging my hole even deeper by discussing it instead of simply not saying anything as several others have done. But what exactly did I do so wolf-like?

1 Day:

- did vote for Rowain first
- did not vote for Sandover
- did vote for Sareln in the end

The Rowain vote was as uninformed as all other votes at that time. Yeah, guilty for not taking it totally serious in the first hours. Like nearly everyone who posted. Then I asked Roland if he could some stuff in his postings and that I had the feeling he meant everyone would be suspicious who does not agree with him. So I actively tried to understand what he tells us with his long essays. I also tried, also with my next post, to not have us being suspicious of everyone as soon as he disagrees with us. The same I am asking today btw.

After that one post were I try to help everyone to get an easier overview of what was posted and by whom. Yeah, extremly likely that a wolf is trying to help with that.

After that the discussion with Sandover started. I explained already several times why I did not want to take a shot at him (or MJW). I changed my vote to Sareln for this reason as I rather wanted to kill a villager as the Baner. And again, I am not the only one doing that. Roland did it too, even that he now finds "explanations" (first he said it was because he convinced himself that a 50/50 shot is not worth it killing the Baner, now after being questioned it is a ploy he worked out with Gaspar - at least I am consistent with why I did vote for Sareln...). Apart from him, there are several more who did the same thing.

2 Day:

Voted for sunrise because he didn't post at all. Again there are several people who did that as well - some which still stay on him even. I have later switched to Kyan and already explained why I did that. Seeing for myself that it didn't make sense I unvoted - in the meantime the discussion re Gaspar/Meiz being wolves unfolded and I haven't still decided for whom to vote.

So, what exactly is not wolf behaviour, could I get an explanation? If it would not be that our seer has to stay hidden for now, I would love to have him scry me. It would reveal that I am a villager and I could stop trying to defend myself and start helping the village decide on who is a wolf and who is not.

Oh, btw, as for postcount:

sunrise: 5
Irgy: 12
Gaspar: 12
Dantski: 12
Mr. Nice Guy: 13
Serdoa: 22

Clearly I have to be the wolf because I am surely the one who keeps hiding and trying to stay low... sorry, but I really don't see were those accusations come from. I am talking 6nd most in the village. Yes, mainly to defend me today. What I am supposed to do? Get myself killed so only that we lose a villager and a day which we could use to kill a wolf?

[Lewwyn]

Gaspar is too easy of a target. Its too easy to lynch him. Way too easy. I don't have time its late. Lynch hour is at 5 am for me. Absolutely terrible timing on this game for my TZ. I don't have the time to reply atm. But I wanted to win this game in 6 days. 6 days 6 werewolves. Thats looking bad from my point of view right now.

Selrahc keep an open mind over the next few hours.

[uberfish]

That's it. I'm not part of any trusted network. Nobody has told me who the seer, masons, devil, werewolves, baner, etc are. I don't know if there are any secret roles. I have no knowledge other than what is gleaned from this thread. If we get down to the wire, and it looks like I'm about to be lynched, I'll put my guess as to who the wolves are out in the thread, simply so its saved for posterity.

Thanks for posting. Man I don't know how half your posts come across as sincere and half as suspicious. I thought you were part of Roland's PM network because he defended you so strongly. Obviously, I'm not part of this group myself. Roland, I presume, will back you up on this, so I'll have to review my case.

[luddite]

I'm looking through this thread, trying to find what's so damming about Gaspar, and frankly I don't see it. There's been two long posts attacking him by Dantski and Irgy. Rowain added a shorter one a bit later. Haphazard just says he agrees with them, Mr. Nice Guys says he has private reasons that he won't share, and Selrahc just says he agrees with arguments already posted. Meiz, presumably, will vote for Gaspar if necessary to save himself.

The biggest piece of evidence of evidence against Gaspar, by far, is his vote to lynch MJW. That's what the posts by Rowain, Haphazard, and Irgy all seem to focus on. This logic seems to me. A vote for Sareln (cough Meiz cough) is much more suspicious.

We had a very slim majority against Sandover, just 9 to 7. MJW was in a distant 3rd place with 3, which means that a vote against him was almost like not voting. It seems like more of a protest vote by the people that were too nervous that Sandover might actually be the baner.

And in fact, the vote was even closer than it looks. Selrahc was voting for sareln until almost the very last minute. He changes his vote at 4:37. Uberfish put in a vote for 4:38, which was almost certainly a cross post. If Selrahc hadn't changed his vote, Sandover would have gone free. The wolves effort to save Sandover came EXTREMELY close to succeeding. And if it had succeeded, the people voting for Sareln wouldn't even look bad, because we wouldn't know Sandover was a wolf.

Given all that, don't you see how a vote against Sareln is 10x worse than a vote against MJW? It doesn't exactly prove Gaspar's innocence, but I don't see how you can think he's more guilty than Meiz right now. Both the vote, and a long list of statements before that where he defends Sandover.

Oh yes, and let's not forget that Meiz made the very first vote against Sareln, when there was absolutely no reason to vote for him .