Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Meiz]

I have tried to explain my reasoning for the day 1 actions as best as I can. I can only encourage everyone to take one last look at my messages, and see if they could be an acts of a villager. Because at this moment you are about to kill one.

Is there anything I can still say to convince you otherwise? Unfortunately I am completely lost regarding possible wolf targets, so I can't really point my finger on anyone and say that they would be a certain wolf kill.

If I do go down, take a close look at the people who have tried to defend me with best of their abilities (most notably uberfish). I also hope you can draw good conclusion based on the eagerness of my lynchers. My death would fortunately not go to vaste.

So the votes are between me and Gaspar. I know I'm innocent. I have no idea if Gaspar is a wolf or not. Unfortunately I have no other choise than to vote Gaspar


Completely unrelated: My brother is lurking this game and he is visiting me today. He is also following the spoiler thread and has used my laptop to read it. I just noticed that my account was logged in with the laptop, so in practise my account has accessed lurker thread. I just wanted to clarify that I am not following the lurker thread and am unspoiled.

[luddite]

So the votes are between me and Gaspar. I know I'm innocent. I have no idea if Gaspar is a wolf or not. Unfortunately I have no other choise than to vote Gaspar

What a twist!

[Meiz]

Yep, I'm sure no one saw that caming

[Selrahc]

The wolves intentionally do not manipulate things, which leaves us succeptible to ... the masons.

Wolf slip or just bad phrasing? Hmm.

I don't think that's either. "Us" as in the village. Beause if we leave it close we are more succeptible to interference, whether by wolves or masons. If the wolves don't interfere we(by which I mean the village) are prone to mason interference in a close vote.

I mean I could just fill all my posts with sentences constructed "and so I(a villager) think that we(villagers) should try and lynch wolves(not me)." but I think that is just a pedantic and annoying road to travel down.

EDIT: I suppose I could have phrased it: "If the wolves do not interfere due to fear of being tracked then the vote is more succeptible to interference from masons." I'm not sure if that is any clearer due to saying "the vote" rather than "us", but it's a lot tidier than having to interpose a lot of brackets in the middle of sentences.

[Roland]

I don't follow this argument. If 3 people on your trusted village list vote for Gaspar and you believe no funny business is going on - shouldn't that make you more suspicious of Gaspar not less? I mean you already think he's 65% likely to be a villager, which implies that he's slightly suspicious already as if you pick someone at random they're 74% likely to be a villager.

No, it shouldn't. When have I ever followed a mob mentality, whether I believe it's by the Villagers or the 'Wolves? It's not my style. Besides, the evidence as presented against Gaspar is not enough to convince me. Moreover, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point - he did try to help me nail a 'Wolf, even if we both were stupid in our MJW gambit. We share equal responsibility in that.

As for Meiz, quite a few people didn't want to take a 50/50 risk of killing Sandover if he was baner. Including Sareln, including myself, and including you. But you're convinced Meiz is a wolf because he argued against the 50/50.

On its own, no. I would never accuse someone of being a 'Wolf based upon on small shred of evidence - especially one that fits so easily on either side of the fence. You can try to put words in my mouth like some others do (Meiz, Serdoa), but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt that you were merely challenging me here.

Sorry Roland but I think your PM network has been infiltrated by wolves at this point because your arguments made a lot more sense on the first day. And I think Gaspar might well be one given his connection to your MJW flip.

You can think what you like. I've seen no evidence that it has, and I've taken EVERY precaution to ensure that people prove their innocence to me before I let them in - look at Gaspar if you don't believe me. He wasn't lying when he said he's not part of a network (not mine, at least).

As for my arguments making more sense on Day 1, I'll agree. That's why I didn't want to blow open the lid on Meiz and Serdoa so early. I wanted more time to build my case, as I stated, but it's not working out that way. Meiz and Serdoa are doing EXACTLY what they've always done - and it's this that keeps hammering home my suspicions about them. I'm sure you, and many others, can't see just how crafty they are - they did a piss poor job of it on Day 1, which caught my eye, but they've recovered nicely - but I'm not blind to it. Maybe it's not enough hard evidence to go on - I can't say it's the most substantial evidence I've presented to date - but it's all they're giving us, save for their votes. I admit I could be wrong about either - but, then, where is a more likely candidate? Gaspar? For what? His every move, from Sandover onward, was either discussed with me beforehand, or exactly what I expected of him (without any contact). Is he being inflammatory against his own cause? Oh, absolutely, and I'd smack him for it if I could - if only because I'm risking my own neck to save someone who's far from proven to me that he's a 'Wolf. But that's what this game has been about - taking risks. It got us our first 'Wolf kill on Day 1, despite the debacle near the end. I'm going to keep doing what I do, and I'll wager by the end of this I'll have been right far more times than wrong.

I believe what Roland's implying in his post is that now that 3 suspected villagers have moved to Gaspar, it creates an opportunity for the wolves to switch to an innocent and save their comrade, Meiz.

Thank you. I'm glad someone got that - I thought I was perfectly clear, but maybe I wasn't. It was 5 AM after all, and I was very tired.

Uber your post is full of misdirection, pointing toward Roland being confused and not making sense. Implying greater sins than fallabilty (WW influence). Then you move straight to the expected vote, away from Meiz.

For what it's worth, I'm not entirely convinced he's trying to sow misdirection. I will say it's 100% typical Uber, from what I know of him, but I think he's done a fair job of laying out his reasoning - whether or not I agree with it.

From reading and weighing up the arguments, I'll go with
Gaspar

Two for two. Late votes with minimal explanation. Not trying to accuse you of anything devious here, Selrahc, but we all know you're capable of far more thought and eloquence than simply "So and so is guilty."

Care to elaborate on your thoughts? I understand you like to play your cards VERY close to your chest, but at this point that's turning into a liability more than an asset.

I don't care if you (and Roland) consider me a potential wolf or not to be honest. I'd rather take a stand on which of the two main lynch candidates I consider more likely to be a wolf than keep my now-meaningless vote against Sunrise.

I can't speak for Lewwyn, but I don't think you're a 'Wolf. I think your behavior is... hard to read sometimes, but if you're a 'Wolf you've done enough to cover your tracks - at least from me.

I do object to you accusing me of deliberate misdirection though. I think it's actually pretty easy for wolves to infiltrate a network that's not based around seer scans and the like, and spread confusion. My stance against PMs is known and it's partially because I'm not a fan of this PM network playstyle. And something just doesn't feel right to me about Roland's overly strong defence of Gaspar.

I don't agree with the deliberate misdirection either, for what it's worth. However, as for it being easy for 'Wolves to penetrate a trusted network? I don't buy that. I don't think it's any easier for them than it is for Villagers. Tell me - do you think you're part of my trusted network? Do you think Gaspar is? Both of you are unknowns at this point, to me. What makes you so sure I've been anything but excruciatingly careful about who I lay my trust with (in public and private)?

As for your veiled accusation against me with regards to my defense of Gaspar, I can honestly tell you I have had ZERO contact with Gaspar since after the lynching on Day 1. We shared a few PMs during the night, and that was it - no further contact. I'm sure he'll corroborate that - but then, that's the beauty of accusations with no proof: anything either of us says is just going to enforce the idea in your mind. So that leaves everyone else: either you trust my word is honest and genuine, regardless of whether or not you agree with my viewpoints, or you jump on the bandwagon and call me a liar.

Meiz has been consistent as far as I can see and explains his reasoning, feel free to point out any slips he might have made if you spot them. Gaspar just says "I'm a villager and I'm not going to explain my strategy in public" which doesn't exactly inspire any confidence. Could be taken at face value, could equally easily be a wolf saying he's hiding behind PMs in order not to be publicly caught in an inconsistency. Roland's revelation that Gaspar and himself had been discussing the MJW flip on day 1 pushed me off the fence on Gaspar towards the probable wolf side.

If I find the time before the end of this Day cycle, I'll post an in-depth analysis of Meiz - and maybe Serdoa, if there's time. It's coming down to the wire, and I'm not sure I'll be able to do it, but I'll do my best.

I'll be the first to admit Gaspar is not doing himself any favors. He's not doing me any favors at this point, either. So why am I still defending him? It's not because I believe in him - we've covered that - so why? I think I've demonstrated clearly enough how I act. I ask you, all of you, why would I still be bothering with defending Gaspar if he himself is someone who's barely earned the slightest bit of my trust? Could it be, I don't know, that I believe someone else is far more guilty, and has shown it to be true? Could it also be that, as I've clearly stated, the swing towards Gaspar - especially by people whom I strongly suspect are Villagers - gives the 'Wolves the perfect cover to lynch him, and leave us to wonder who to blame?

If I'm wrong about Gaspar, and he is a 'Wolf, I'll celebrate just as hard as any of you. He's not someone who's been on my radar for a 'Wolf, but that by no means equals him being trusted by me - or being a part of my small network. I'm doing the best I can to defend Gaspar from a distance not out of trust, but out of conviction of a deeper play at hand. If he's a Villager, we're now going to have plenty of Villagers among the 'Wolves who voted to lynch him, making our job of sorting the wheat from the chaff much more difficult.

Conveniently assuming that ONLY wolves would switch, in a blatantly obvious and coordinated fashion, and ignoring the possibility that villagers who believed Roland on Sandover originally would switch... Although fortunately as it turned out, Roland flipped very late, too late for MJW to become a realistic. Who knows what would have happened if he'd switched 1 hour before the deadline? So yes, I think if you want to look for wolf attempts to save Sandover, this is the most likely place.

I take direct issue with this, Uberfish. Now you're throwing out wild accusations against both me and Gaspar, with zero proof to back it up. I didn't think you were sowing misdirection before, but now I'm starting to think otherwise.

The MJW switch was planned out ahead of time. Gaspar volunteered to go first, under the notion that 1) it could pull potential 'Wolves, and 2) he had plenty of time to change back. I've already stated as such, and your blatant disregard of that fact is starting to aggravate me.

Then, you propose the idea of "What if Roland switched much earlier, and people followed?" Are you daft? Seriously, are you? I've stated I was following the events every second of that last hour - and beyond - numerous times! Moreover, I purposefully waited until the last few minutes precisely to avoid this very scenario! How much clearer can I make this?

The MJW switch is the weakest evidence against Gaspar thus far. It was coordinated and planned with me, at my original voicing - NOT HIS - and was followed closely by me to watch what would happen. I risk my credibility here by defending Gaspar so, but I don't do it lightly - I think I've proven I don't do anything lightly. All you who are voting Gaspar, I know you have your reasons. I'm not arguing that there are reasons. To use the MJW vote as the standard for your charge against him, however, is foolhardy. It implicates me even more than it does him, and it's just all around weak, for all the reasons I've gone over. If you don't believe me, you don't believe me. If he gets lynched, we'll see who's right in the end.

I'm tired of fighting this battle. If people consistently refuse to accept my arguments as presented, and instead try to twist my words to suit their own goals (Serdoa, Meiz, and now you Uberfish) then there's not much I can do, now is there? I'm sorry Gaspar. You got your wish - now we'll have to see if it worked.

[scooter]

Wow, this is insanity. I am gone for a day, then I spend 2 hours catching up on all that was written, only to find out we're about to lynch Meiz because he didn't like the idea of taking a 50/50 shot on a baner, and not only that, but the charge has been led by Roland, who voted to lynch our baner!

For real?

If you think we should lynch someone who didn't want to take a 50/50 shot on the baner, then you better lynch me too, because I still think it was a foolish move that we got lucky on.

What really really worries me is how much clout Roland seems to yield at the moment. It's been said that he seems to have a network of "trusted people" which apparently consists of people that agree with him. Um, ok? I wrote out the case against sunrise, and he dismissed it by saying it was "circumstantial evidence" and then he proceeded to write a 4 volume book that consisted of him quoting something Meiz said and then saying "hmmm, yeah that's suspicious!" - which by suspicious he meant that he disagrees. Sounds like he rejected circumstantial evidence in favor of HIS circumstantial evidence, and because he used more words than anyone else, that somehow makes him legit...?

Meiz is one of the very few people who I really believe is a villager, and I will personally vote for myself tomorrow if we lynch him and he turns out to be a wolf. Contrary to what people have said, his comments on day 1 actually all made perfect sense, despite Roland's attempt to twist them in huge posts that I think most of his followers have not actually read. It really bothers me how many people believe his posts. How could you have a "trusted network" on day 2?? That's not even possible, unless the basis of a trusted network is people who agree with you, which is pretty flimsy basis, and only makes sense if Roland is a wolf.

The problem is that what I'm saying is incredibly dangerous. Just the fact that I'm disagreeing with Roland means that there'll probably be a huge anti-scooter post written by Roland tomorrow, at which point all the Roland-ites will analyze my posts line-by-line and portray each sentence in a wolf tone, explaining why I can't possible be innocent.

What makes this nonsense awfully rich is that it's coming from a guy who freaking voted for the baner on day 1. I mean really? Is it REALLY more suspicious that Meiz didn't want the 50/50 than it is that Roland voted for the baner late in day 1?

Also guys - take a deep breath and remember who else didn't want the 50/50 on day 1. Sareln. Yep - the one guy that pretty much all of us believe is innocent, even he voted for himself. He was so much against the 50/50 that he was willing to commit suicide for it, rather than chance it on lynching a possible baner. So in that perspective I'm going to go out on a limb and say that voting for Meiz on the basis of "he was against voting for Sandover!" is pretty nonsensical, no matter how many words Roland wrote about it.

Roland - please don't take anything I'm saying a personal attack. I just think you are way way off on a lot of things you say, and your posts are eerily similar to zakalwe from WW1, in that people who agree with you, you magically write them off as innocent, and people who disagree with you, you analyze their posts line-by-line and explain why they must of course be a wolf. The trend is disturbing, and you a either a villager with a twisted perspective or an incredibly crafty wolf.

The whole "trusted network" on day 2 is worrying because, if you are a villager, you most assuredly have some wolves in your trusted network, because not even you can parse out the wolves this early. In contrast, if you are a wolf, it's worrying because those following you would be more likely to admit if they are a mason/seer/etc, at which point we're screwed because those people will magically get nixed overnight.

And yes, I'm still sticking with sunrise for now. I believe what I wrote, and I think he's highly suspicious, despite the computer problems. My suspicious list goes like this:

1) sunrise
2) Roland
3) Gaspar

[scooter]

I'm tired of fighting this battle. If people consistently refuse to accept my arguments as presented, and instead try to twist my words to suit their own goals (Serdoa, Meiz, and now you Uberfish) then there's not much I can do, now is there? I'm sorry Gaspar. You got your wish - now we'll have to see if it worked.

Just because someone disagrees with you does not mean they're trying to twist your words. Maybe they just think you're wrong? Kinda like you were on day 1?

[sunrise089]

Hi all,

So I'm in a McDonalds where I just purchased a sweet iced tea so I could use their free wifi in good conscience. My wife and child and friend are waiting in the parking lot. I've been staying in Smock PA skiing the last three days, and I had at best intermittent non-3G internet accessible via phone. If people question my difficulty in accessing this game, which is their right, I'd remind them that I have a history of playing civ turns...in Kennedy airport while learning on the first class lounge wall to access the wifi hotspot, in Europe while paying for internet, parked in my car outside a closed diner over Thanksgiving holiday...plus I've not been able to play my ffh pbem or my RBP4 turn either. If that's all a huge ploy to not post in the thread...well, then I should be lynched just because I'm a big jerk

I've had time to read through the reveal that Sandover was a wolf following the first lynch. Since I'm seriously pressed for time all I want to add is that...

1) While I initially held my vote when the thread had more random speculation than real evidence, I'd had voted for sandover on day 1 had I had the chance. His "he's not the baner, I'm the baner post said wolf like crazy. I respect while some people were risk averse and didn't want to vote for a possible baner, but I'm glad enough people made the right choice.

2) In WW1, and even on day 1 here, textual clues played a role in WW detection, but an arguably bigger role was played by figuring out voting blocks and who wasn't voting for wolves to be lynched if they could avoid it.

3) As such my first order suspicions immediately fall to those who voted in a way that would possibly save sandover. Meiz is first on that list as he voted to save sandover and was opposed to scanning mjw.

4) I have a few second order suspicions that I'll post more details of later when I have time. They don't really matter though when there are easier suspects out there on this day.

So....I'm getting texts from my wife, therefore I have to go. If I get voted out I understand...the game just started at a bad time for me, and work, family, etc trumped ww game the day I left. If I live I'll contribute more tomorrow, though not like Roland does But my last thought is that voting for me based on really meta-arguments in the face of direct actions by other suspects is understandable, but not IMHO the best course of action.

[Selrahc]

I understand you like to play your cards VERY close to your chest, but at this point that's turning into a liability more than an asset.

Well, okay. Maybe it is.

The MJW vote feels to me like it *could* be a wolf ploy. Remember, if they all vote for wagon number two it becomes very obvious. So they'll want to be sitting on more neutral votes that still favour Sandover. I think that could be what Gaspar was doing.

And since he is currently second wagon, and I think it is healthy to have two competitive wagons I'll stick with my vote for now, even though I didn't really adress the Meiz side of the fence at the moment.

Like I said, I'll keep my mind open and keep watching up until the deadline.

[uberfish]

@Roland

1) I'm going to retract the trusted network wolf infiltration idea now that you've clarified Gaspar wasn't in your network. Since he was my suspect.

2) To clarify, you're saying that the MJW flip from Gaspar and yourself was a planned wolf fishing operation from the start and Gaspar never intended to actually lynch MJW... ? It's possible that this was in one of your previous posts and I missed it due to wall of text. Sorry if that's the case.