Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Rowain]

That is very bad news.

Day 2 and we are down 1 Mason.


for me this is a double blow.

I have written a long essay to explain my thoughts quite similar as I did for Day 2 but one of the 4 suspects I had was Luddite which as just now revealed was not only a villager but also a Mason.

I have now to reevaluate my thoughts and reasoning.

[Kyan]

[SIZE="7"]...[/SIZE]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXm...re=related

[Ug the Barbarian]

Ok we're starting to lose this now.

And some of that is my fault - for agreeing too much with other peoples logic in voting for Meiz - and for hoping that MJW was the fake baner because his playing style was annoying me so much.

So I've spent over 2 hrs going back to basics and re-reading the whole thread.

Basically forgetting voting paterns for now - and just trying to concentrate on what people have contributed and where they have subtly stirred things.

And now my own suspects have changed considerably :

Uberfish - I think you're reprising your wolf role from WW1 and doing it really well.

You start off accusing Selrahc (#10) but not seriously, change to Mr Nice Guy (#104), off onto Lewwyn with a nicely stirring post (#167), try to deflect away from Sandover (#224) and then apologise but try and lynch Sareln (#260).

Similarly you name 3 'obvious innocents' (Sareln, Selrahc, Roland) and then accuse sunrise (#328) - I suspect one of those innocents is probably a wolf you're trying to slip through in people's subconcious, probably Selrahc or Roland. You then accuse Gasper (#409) but sow doubt that villager PM threads are 'wolf infiltrated' to ensure no trust develops. You're then accused by Lewwyn of all this misdirection (#415) - if only I'd believed him at the time.

Dantski - you were such a good early target for so many people and you've kept so quiet that people have now forgotten about you. Sitting on the fence, no commitments just quietly surviving.

Selrahc - a decent number of posts (like Uberfish) to keep you in the middle of the pack but so little useful content - encouraging everyone to keep trying. Like Uberfish , you dropped on Gaspar who I'm more and more convinced is innocent.

Sunrise - still not in the clear due to the low number of posts but I can fully understand trying to play catch up on this thread is hard. Lets see if you make some meaningful contribution now

[uberfish]

Ok let's try to analyze what happened on day 2 from a clearer perspective.

Roland went to a lot of effort to save Gaspar, this much is clear. He PMed me (and presumably others) to try and convince me to change my vote. Near the end of the day Roland and Gaspar finally explained what they were doing on day 1. IE: the MJW flip was a wolf fishing operation. I felt this sufficiently explained Gaspar's reticence; he didn't want to say it was a ploy because he was going to try it again.


case 1: Roland wolf, Gaspar wolf

While it seems to explain everything very well on the surface, there's one problem with this: why would Roland draw such a strong connection between himself and Gaspar, leaving them both vulnerable, when they could save Gaspar equally well just by voting off Meiz while disclaiming any coordination.

case 2: Roland wolf, Gaspar innocent

Makes no sense. Roland would have no reason to put himself on the line when the 2 lynch candidates were villagers.


So I still believe Roland is a likely villager. I'll try and cover the other cases later since apparently I have to defend myself.

[Ug the Barbarian]

So I still believe Roland is a likely villager. I'll try and cover the other cases later since apparently I have to defend myself.

Feel free - I'm 100% convinced you're a wolf after going through the whole thread. Others can make up their own minds.

Think you've been doing it really well though

The others I've listed in order of decreasing certainty.

[uberfish]

Uberfish - I think you're reprising your wolf role from WW1 and doing it really well.

You start off accusing Selrahc (#10) but not seriously, change to Mr Nice Guy (#104), off onto Lewwyn with a nicely stirring post (#167), try to deflect away from Sandover (#224) and then apologise but try and lynch Sareln (#260).

Similarly you name 3 'obvious innocents' (Sareln, Selrahc, Roland) and then accuse sunrise (#328) - I suspect one of those innocents is probably a wolf you're trying to slip through in people's subconcious, probably Selrahc or Roland. You then accuse Gasper (#409) but sow doubt that villager PM threads are 'wolf infiltrated' to ensure no trust develops. You're then accused by Lewwyn of all this misdirection (#415) - if only I'd believed him at the time.

Oh hey, I wondered when this was going to come up. It really shouldn't be a surprise that my style doesn't change that much between wolf/villager.

I have no problem being open about my style. As a villager I vote for people based on something I find in a post that I don't like in order to gather information. Simply because people tend not to pay a whole lot of attention to evidence against them unless there's a vote involved. (I wouldn't bother posting this if you didn't vote for me.) If they defend themselves convincingly, I move on. This is just how I play the game.

I agree the last minute vote on Sareln looks suspicious and expected to be a suspect on day 2. In light of the fact that Meiz was lynched for voting for Sareln and not wanting to take the risk on Sandover, I think we can agree that this isn't exactly conclusive evidence. I have to admit that I was hoping that Sandover would turn out to be the baner because of MJW's weird behaviour.

I didn't use the phrase "obvious innocents", you're putting words in my mouth there. I think it was something like "probable villagers". Not sure how this is suspicious at all since many people post villager/suspect lists. As you can see I have my doubts about Selrahc now. He contributed very little on day 2 apart from what I thought might be a wolf slip. Sareln really hasn't been contributing either.

Sunrise was poked for inactivity and because I was a bit annoyed that I'd voted for him as mayor (I prefer a random candidate to one who puts himself forward) and he'd vanished. A bunch of people agreed that pressuring him to post would be a good idea.

I got the wrong impression of communications between Roland and Gaspar based on their posts. I believed Gaspar to be deliberately misleading Roland in an attempt to get MJW lynched. I pulled my vote when my case was disproved.

That's all I think. As Ug says, you can make up your own minds. Or question me, like I question other people. That's only fair.

[Selrahc]

Alright, so before I launch into defence/analysis. Let's keep things in perspective. We get at least 4 incorrect lynches before we lose the game. Losing the masons isn't the biggest deal in the world. Let's not get all defeatist because the werewolves (shock horror) killed someone in the night.

If the seer died, maybe I could get behind all this "The End is Nigh" stuff. For now I think it is just unhelpful. Stay positive guys.

Selrahc - a decent number of posts (like Uberfish) to keep you in the middle of the pack but so little useful content - encouraging everyone to keep trying. Like Uberfish , you dropped on Gaspar who I'm more and more convinced is innocent.

Hey, maybe I shouldn't encourage people to keep trying. Let's all just turn this into a ship of the damned, lamenting our inevitable destruction and tearing down anyone who doesn't want to join in the pity party.

I'm normally quite quiet in these games.
Seriously.
If you're looking for someone who posts multipage theories every few pages then that isn't me.
I was initially going to go for a much bigger mayoral campaign, really kick up a fuss, hopefully get the wolves to waste a night kill on me. That was kind of my game plan. But I have been swamped with essays for the last week, which kind of sapped my availability for crazy posts.
So since I couldn't do that, I'm going to do the mayor role as much justice as I can. That means watching the votes, being available for last minute changes, and having an open ear for any villagers who need my help.

Yesterday was part of that. I voted for Gaspar based mainly on gut feeling, coupled with the fact that his actions could well have been part of a tactical move by wolves.

But I left myself available. Roland got in contact before the lynch, and said that he was convinced that there would be a late shift to Gaspar. I promised that if that occurred I would shift over to Meiz, because a last minute shift like that would be worrying.

I don't know if I'm doing the right thing as mayor in letting others lead the way. But I do think it is.

Dantski - you were such a good early target for so many people and you've kept so quiet that people have now forgotten about you. Sitting on the fence, no commitments just quietly surviving.

Dantski did some really good posts yesterday so this seems like an odd time to post this.



I can see your post about Uberfish. But he has been kind of rubbing me up the wrong way after yesterday's grammar nitpicking. Which is generally a quite wolfish thing to fixate on.

[Roland]

Alright. After yesterday's debacle, I took some time away. I didn't sleep well last night - a couple of hours, all told. I just couldn't get things out of my head. The day had started out so well, and yet it ended up so wrong. How could I have gotten so lost? I know how, but that's not important right now. I'm not going to be as long as usual with this one - the rest will have to wait until later, when I've had time to fully sort through everything else. This, however, could not wait until then.

I'm the Seer.

Now that that's out of the way, let me tell you why I'm bringing this out now. Short and sweet.

Selrahc is the Devil.

Get ready for a bit of reading.

On the first Day cycle, I took a chance with Gaspar. No reason, just blind intuition. It paid off. We nailed a 'Wolf. I couldn't keep it up, though - not without being sure. So I scried him that night, and found him to be a Villager. Good. Now I had a partner I could depend on. I couldn't let myself get too close to him in public, though. Unfortunately, that got pressed very hard yesterday, and I had to tip my hat more than I was comfortable. Between that, and my distraction with Meiz, I simply didn't have the time nor the energy to go after my real suspects.

Enough of that. With 15 minutes to go last night, it began to dawn on me that something wasn't right. It was all too easy. It just did not FEEL right - intuition, not emotion. Unfortunately, I had bet it all on Meiz, despite my stronger feelings about other suspects (which will become more clear as time goes on, and people review yesterday). It was too late to pull back the train. Meiz was lynched, and he was a Villager.

That's when it hit me - we had been set up from the get go. Meiz was a Villager. Gaspar is a Villager. I'd bet money Sunrise is, too. 3 Villagers on the block, total chaos in the first few hours - what better play for the 'Wolves? We took one of their own on the first day - BLIND - and we gave them the perfect chance to repay us in kind.

Fast forward to last night. I was in such despair at what had happened I was ready to give up. Call it quits. Pass the torch, if you will. However, I still had a job to do - and a feeling nipping at the back of my neck. So much had gone on that first day. So much to sift through. So, on a hunch, I decided to do something - I decided to scry the Mayor. As the night wore on I found myself clinging here, waiting to get my results - and that's when it all hit me.

1) Luddite was killed. My dear Mason friend, with me since Day 1, had been taken from me. A great portion of my trusted network was lost, and my heart sank.

2) My scry came in. It was a hit. A total, complete hit - right through the heart of the enemy. I couldn't believe it at first - could I truly be so lucky, after all I had been through and done? There it was - the cold, hard proof I needed.

I've been rejuvenated. I feel invigorated. I feel ALIVE. So why am I being so foolish as to blow my cover wide open? Because this is worth it. A Queen for a Queen, a Seer for a Devil. I was praying for some way to turn this whole thing around, and it came to me. Sometimes, you just have to make sacrifices in order to win. I was granted this gift, now it is time to pay the price.

We have a chance - a real chance - to kill the 'Wolves. We have a chance to avenge Meiz's death - I owe him that much, more than anyone else here, and I said as much over his grave. We have a chance to strike at the heart of the enemy and tell them we will not cower in fear! We will not be run about like sheep in a storm! We shall fight back, and we shall win!

I'm calling you out, Selrahc. I know who you are, and I'm not afraid. Live or die, after today it will not matter for me. I'm going to die eventually - might as well make my death mean something.

[uberfish]

So about that probable villager list. Yesterday I mentioned Roland, Selrahc and Sareln as my probable villagers. I still believe Roland to be a villager. Because the scenarios where he's a wolf don't make sense. Sareln I'm not sure about (I'll explain why later.) Selrahc...

I'm going to stick my neck out again, and yeah I might be wrong here and will probably get lynched if I am. But hear me out.

Selrahc

1)

The wolves intentionally do not manipulate things, which leaves us succeptible to those who can swing vote without worrying about being caught at it, the masons.

It's not a grammar slip, it's an "us" vs "them" slip. Your command of English is good, anyone can see that from reading your FFH PBEM 1 thread. I think you know the exact context "susceptible" is normally used in - ie "vulnerable".

(yeah yeah I know Krill was innocent in WW#1, but I think this is a lot clearer than "you, the villagers" was.)

Ok maybe this isn't conclusive evidence.


lol I'm apparently cross posted with Roland now.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Roland said in a PM that he was the seer some time ago. Not much though. He gave me a name other person who PMed me to. If Selerc is not a ww I will post that name and we can get a double wolf kill.

I vote Selrahc. There is no way he's a power role because he wanted to be mayor.