Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Dantski]

All of you uberfish voters - none of you responded to the comments I made in this post:

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showp...&postcount=739

The first two paragraphs outline why it doesn't make sense to lynch uberfish until tomorrow. It's simple statistics - if we lynch him today we can probably approximate that there's a 65% chance (or better) that he's guilty. We're more or less out of major leads though, so tomorrow whoever we lynch - there's probably more like a 40% chance that he's guilty.

If sunrise dies tonight, we can lynch uberfish tomorrow with 100% certainty. If he doesn't die tonight, then we would realize that the probability of him being guilty has dropped considerably and that we could have potentially saved ourselves from a mistake. But my point is we could lynch him for 100% sure, and lynch someone else at that 40%-ish number tonight, and that number could go up if we'd discuss who else could be guilty.

This makes complete logical sense and all 7 of you have ignored it and kept your vote on uberfish, which makes me skeptical of what's going on here

Better than 65% chance, I'm more inclined to believe sunrise is the real seer than MJW was the real baner.

With an extra day to discuss, we also have more time to come up with a good next target for lynching, I see no reason to rush to a decision on someone else today when there's no real consensus.

This is probably the only semi valid bit of your reply. The evidence against Danski is limited to him being the least vocal person.
However its obvious you've not properly read my posts and when they were posted. I wasn't 'following the majority vote' when I went after Uberfish and Selharc - I was the second to suggest Uberfish (after Lewwyn had been ignored by everyone) and the first to mention Selharc. I voted for Uberfish first before Sunrise & others pointing to Selharc as the devil so swapped my vote to ensure he was lynched

First off its DanTski, there's a T in it!

Secondly, my post count is low just like in the first werewolf game where I was a roleless villager. Seems I'm being consistent. Although to counter that I did post a very long message on day 2 detailing my thoughts.

Lastly about me being on your early suspects list, well do you think someone can realistically pick 3/3 wolves on day 2 or 1 or whenever you made this guess? I'd also point to me voting for Selrahc to be lynched and I didn't support him for mayor. Also that I'm voting for uber to be lynched this turn and will take some convincing to change my vote (which incidentally hasn't changed once during the day!).

[scooter]

Better than 65% chance, I'm more inclined to believe sunrise is the real seer than MJW was the real baner.

This is fine and not unreasonable. I just want to know people's reasons for voting how they do. Thanks.

With an extra day to discuss, we also have more time to come up with a good next target for lynching, I see no reason to rush to a decision on someone else today when there's no real consensus.

Let's see you do it - who do you view as your next target for lynching? Who's your top 3 candidates and why? Who's your top 3 likely to be innocent? I'm curious because ever since your huge post that I'm convinced someone wrote out and told you to paste (), you haven't really offered opinions on who you think is guilty/innocent.

[sunrise089]

Too many posts in this thread to keep up...

I'm with Kyan. I don't like arbitrary admin rulings, and really don't like overly clever game mechanics that force this into a weird meta-fest. Did F&I deny MJW's power because he broke a rule? Or did he claim to to cover the reveal of a secret wolf power role? I don't consider that a fun mystery, I consider it not knowing the rules to the game I signed up for because they keep changing.

The answer to the above really matters IMHO too, because it affects the likelihood that I'm the fool. If there are no remaining secret wolf roles then I could see having no real seer and just giving us the owl. If there is a "denier" wolf roll then maybe things are more balanced with a working seer.

As for waiting to lynch uberfish, I can see his logic. Uberfish doesn't strike me as that wolfish this game, although he does have a very wolfish history from the last game. The problem with waiting though is if we lynch a villager today and the wolves kill another tonight then there are a lot fewer villager votes to ensure uberfish is lynched.

If sunrise really IS the seer, they will kill him and fire&ice will tell us he was the seer. If he's a WW, they won't kill him. Made sense to me...? If I'm overlooking something, please share (it's late for me so it's entirely possible)

If I'm the fool they probably won't kill me either. But, now that we've had this discussion in the thread, what if they don't kill me even thought I AM the real seer? I don't think that would be worth it to them, but it would be amusing.

Re: my results from last night - I did find a villager. I wouldn't mind some advice on what to do. I can say the name and if my seer-ness is proven then you'll know it's a villager, but it also tips off the wolves. I'd love to share the name with a "trusted network" but I don't trust anyone completely

[Dantski]

Everyone's guilty of something!

I'll do a quick roundup of how I view the other vict-... villagers.

scooter - 1 thing's for sure, you're not on the same wavelength as Lewwyn! Possibly slipped up on saying the seer is dead tonight regardless, but could very well just have made a mistake. Does make individual decisions and come up with his own opinions. Likely villager.

ug - No obvious affiliations, Ug is keeping his post count high enough to not be drawn easily into the low post debate but not bringing anything new to the discussion. Since he isn't too active in discussions its very difficult to judge his alignment. Status unknown

serdoa - After not posting much early, Serdoa has thrown himself full on into discussions and some less than helpful arguments. I just don't see a wolf putting themselves in such great danger of slipping up. Likely villager.

gaspar - Virtually #1 suspect since day 2, apparentely Roland likes to defend him but at the same time gaspar isn't trusted enough to be part of the 'network'. Gaspar outright refused to share his views early on and has taken a hostile stance to any who question him. Like I said before I don't trust him but it would be for the same reason that people got rid of Sandover week 1.

Irgy - Another grey man. Irgy recently voted for Lewwyn as mayor. I consider Lewwyn to be a poor choice as mayor so I'm wondering why Irgy would choose him. Doesn't say too much but I get the feeling his posts are generally about helping and not spreading any mischief. Possible wolf I guess?

Roland - Has talked a good game thus far but then again he did vote for our baner week 1 and a villager week 2. Pushing the lynching of Selrahc day 3 turned out to be correct and I'm back to trusting his villager status. Trusted villager.

Sareln - A curious one, a lot of people auto labelled Sareln a villager after voting for himself day 1. However it could well have been a plan to carry favour. Selrahc could've saved Sandover week 1 by voting for Sareln but didn't. Status unknown

Mr Nice Guy - Honestly with a name like that who doesn't suspect you? Was quick to point out scooter's mistake on the seer's fate and isn't someone I'm drawn to vote for at present. Leaning towards calling him a likely villager

sunrise - Trusted seer unless uberfish's lynch results show otherwise, if uberfish is a wolf, sunrise is almost a 100% sure night kill though.

rowain - Trusted rowain early on but I'm no longer sure. Seems somewhat helpful without taking a leading role, was happy to get rid of Selrahc but then Selrahc was doomed. More likely a villager than a wolf I'd guess

lewwyn - Umm... he really likes antagonizing people yet a couple of people would like him to be mayor? I think he is part of the 'trusted' network. I don't tust him one bit though and he could easily be a wolf trying to gain acceptance. Was also happy to jump on Ug's argument (or lack of) to lynch me. Probable villager who's just not playing nice

haphazard1 - Not drawn any attention to himself and is playing a calm logical game, frankly he's probably one of the people I trust the most right now so actually i'll vote for haphazard1 as mayor

kyan - Is a mason, can't really see a valid argument for him not being one. 100% trusted

uber - Very likely a wolf, he's almost certainly lynched this turn

[Serdoa]

I am not sure on that as well sunrise. Kyan is at least reasonably assumed Mason. I mean, nobody came forward to challenge him for this job, so I guess he has to be it. And I would also assume that Luddite told some others who his counterpart is, so, yeah, Kyan should be fine.

[Kyan]

I've been sleeping then i was at work, hence the long delay between my posts.

I'm sorry, but fire&ice has continued not to respond. Yes, im sure the wolves will pipe in and tell me to be quiet as this decision has benefitted them a huge amount.

These are f&i's rules, as stated on page 1:

Votes for mayor occur when the current mayor is Dead votes for him go in Blue The mayor decided the tie votes.
You may not vote for yourself for mayor.
Votes for who to lynch go in Red
We will continue the 48 hour day 24 hour night phase set up in WW1
Out of thread communication with other players is allowed.
Early votes will only occur if they happen within 24 hours of day starting, everyone has voted, and more than half the people are voting for somone.
Votes can be changed.
Generally (although this is obviously up to the GM) forwarding emails/PMs/chats is prohibited in online play. Summarising them is OK (ie no copy/pasting).

Where does it say that you can't edit your own posts? If it's something you forgot to write there, then fine, publically warn him (public, so that everyone is aware of the new rule). Don't just auto-block him. That's ridiculous.

The posts in question were during night 2. If you were going to negate his protection for one night, why wasn't that particular night chosen? The night had time to run. It wasn't over.

Instead, you warn him, publically at the end of that night with:

Tonight no defense was planed. The village realized that no defense so they divided hoping to lower their loses.

Hearing screams in the night Luddite got out his butchers knifes hoping to atleast spare the victum pain and suffering with death.

Upon leaving his house the wolves set apon him tearting his limbs from his body.

The villagers found a pharase writen in his body.

Their is no fighting it your town is ours.

Luddite was eaten
Mason

DAY 3 BEGINS

Also as a note to MJW STOP editing your post deleteing content even if somone already posted the same thing.

So, you waited, made a conscientious decision to delay your punishment in the hope it would prove more relevant. I wonder, if Luddite was the one being protected on night 2- what would you have done then?

I've already PM'd fire&ice but received no response.

[Kyan]

uberfish
Sareln for mayor. Whatever colour it's supposed to be.


for those that still care, i'll write a summary of confirmed villagers if you like. Obviously, the wolves will rip it to shreds (hi serdoa), but i am extremely confident in it's accuracy. After that, you're all on your own.

[Serdoa]

Um, hi Kyan. Not sure what else to say to that, not even sure why I am named here - I mean, I did propose that sunrise tells you. Well, whatever.

As for F&I and MJW: I am not sure if he should not have been mod-killed anyway for using that part of his Baner-PM. So even if that makes me in your eyes again more wolfish and even that it surely made our life harder I think it was the right decision to punish him. I think he has shown with his posts after he died that he indeed does not respect the rules of the game.

[Kyan]

Um, hi Kyan. Not sure what else to say to that, not even sure why I am named here - I mean, I did propose that sunrise tells you. Well, whatever.

As for F&I and MJW: I am not sure if he should not have been mod-killed anyway for using that part of his Baner-PM. So even if that makes me in your eyes again more wolfish and even that it surely made our life harder I think it was the right decision to punish him. I think he has shown with his posts after he died that he indeed does not respect the rules of the game.

MJW should have been mod-killed for the PM stunt.

I've underlined that as it's vital. However, he wasn't. Our strategy was based around the fact he wasn't. A strategy that has worked brilliantly thus far and we also foiled the night kill.

Just because he was an idiot after, doesn't make the decision correct. Not in the slightest. Nobody is psychic and knows that he'll go on some weird post spree. MJW probably feels aggrieved, as do I.

[Kyan]

Perhaps further clarification is needed:

Because a decision was NOT made to Mod-kill MJW, we used his role as part of a sound strategy. We revealed multiple power roles in the knowledge that we had a baner. If the baner had been modkilled at the start then:

a) our seer would not have been revealed
b) The Owl would have remained hidden with the wolves clueless.

Therefore, a ridiculously delayed punishment makes zero sense.