Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[uberfish]

If I'm the fool they probably won't kill me either. But, now that we've had this discussion in the thread, what if they don't kill me even thought I AM the real seer? I don't think that would be worth it to them, but it would be amusing.

Re: my results from last night - I did find a villager. I wouldn't mind some advice on what to do. I can say the name and if my seer-ness is proven then you'll know it's a villager, but it also tips off the wolves. I'd love to share the name with a "trusted network" but I don't trust anyone completely

1) It would be mathematically bad for wolves not to kill the real seer if they'd identified him. If I was to be a wolf I'd be a certain casualty later on so there'd be no point trying to protect me.

2) Might as well just announce the result, it's not like wolves don't have an obvious voting bloc to go after in the night anyway. This whole bandwagon against me is based on the assumption that you're the real seer and not a fool or some other sort of fake seer. So your result would help people decide whether that's more or less likely to be the case.

I think I forgot to mayor-vote: Roland

[haphazard1]

Everyone's guilty of something!

We are all guily of joining this game, if nothing else applies....

haphazard1 - Not drawn any attention to himself and is playing a calm logical game, frankly he's probably one of the people I trust the most right now so actually i'll vote for haphazard1 as mayor

A vote for me? Really? And here I thought the lying low thing was working!

Given that the wolves know who are villagers and who are not, being mayor is going to be an unsafe occupation for a villager. At least, once the wolves finish eating all the revealed power roles. Not sure I want to step up as a target all that much.

What is that quote? "If nominated I will not run. If elected I will not serve." Something like that.

[Serdoa]

Perhaps further clarification is needed:

Because a decision was NOT made to Mod-kill MJW, we used his role as part of a sound strategy. We revealed multiple power roles in the knowledge that we had a baner. If the baner had been modkilled at the start then:

a) our seer would not have been revealed
b) The Owl would have remained hidden with the wolves clueless.

Therefore, a ridiculously delayed punishment makes zero sense.

Might I ask, does that mean that we were again lied at? Because Roland clearly stated that he slipped up and therefore revealed the power roles without there permission. Now you sound like this was all a plot being worked in the back.

But apart from that: Without revealing the Seer and especially without bringing the Owl forward I am not so sure if Selrahc would have been lynched. Thats why I didn't trust that whole story, it was just too convenient for my taste. Though we probably could talk about THAT forever, we have no way to verify that anyway.

Don't get me wrong, I do understand you being upset. You guys surely have invested time into it and have discussed (internally unfortunately) how to proceed so obviously seeing that going to waste is no fun at all. I agree with you that this probably should have been solved differently. But it can't be changed now anyway and I guess if it could, then the wolves would ask for MJW being mod-killed earlier as well

[scooter]

MJW should have been mod-killed for the PM stunt.

I've underlined that as it's vital. However, he wasn't. Our strategy was based around the fact he wasn't. A strategy that has worked brilliantly thus far and we also foiled the night kill.

Just because he was an idiot after, doesn't make the decision correct. Not in the slightest. Nobody is psychic and knows that he'll go on some weird post spree. MJW probably feels aggrieved, as do I.

I agree with this sentiment. MJW cheated bigtime on day 1 and it quite possibly affected the Sandover lynch. It was the 900 pound gorilla in the room - that MJW should have been modkilled then, but none of us wanted to say it because it would have hurt us. I wish fire&ice would be a bit more transparent with us here, as it seems totally bizarre to do nothing to punish MJW for blatantly breaking the PM rule and then role-block him for the editing thing? I mean ok, MJW was warned about the editing thing, but the actual incident was tame. Totally odd.

That said, MJW cheated with the PM's, he did ignore the editing thing (although the punishment for that isolated incident was dubious), and then after he died he continued posting in a borderline spoiler manner. Add that on with his insane outing himself as baner, and I'll be hesitant to sign up in the same game as him. I would probably end up doing it, but he's screwed with this game so much that it ended up being pretty obnoxious. It's just too bad he had to be our baner. I wish he could have been modkilled day 1 and moved his baner power to someone else.

Enough of this, we can discuss this stuff after the game is over. Sunrise made a very interesting post above, so I want to get to that next.

[scooter]

As for waiting to lynch uberfish, I can see his logic. Uberfish doesn't strike me as that wolfish this game, although he does have a very wolfish history from the last game. The problem with waiting though is if we lynch a villager today and the wolves kill another tonight then there are a lot fewer villager votes to ensure uberfish is lynched.

I see your thinking here, though seeing how many votes are already on uberfish, it seems to me that we must have some werewolves voting for him. This is minor though, because I'm more interested in the other things you said:

If I'm the fool they probably won't kill me either. But, now that we've had this discussion in the thread, what if they don't kill me even thought I AM the real seer? I don't think that would be worth it to them, but it would be amusing.

This crossed my mind just a few minutes before I got the email notification that you wrote it. I think the odds are low though - since if you post all your scries, the minute you die, everyone knows that everything you posted previously is true. So if you scry a WW tonight and they let you live over night, then you post it tomorrow, they kill you the next day.... That's a lot of damage to the WW's. Still though, it's not impossible, and probably something we have to keep in the back of our minds.

Something I realized with some thought - sunrise cannot be a werewolf if I'm understanding the mechanics properly. Selrahc visited sunrise, which is proof that sunrise could not be a werewolf. I just say this because it looks like we're lynching uberfish (fine by me), but if he turns out to be innocent, we need to realize that we should NOT turn around and lynch sunrise the next day. He would simply be the fool, but he'd still be a villager. The only way this is a lie is if the owl is a lie, but sunrise AND the owl being WW's seems a biiiit too risky/elaborate to me.

My current likely-to-be-guilty list:
1. uberfish **
2. Sareln
3. Gaspar

Likely to be innocent:
1. sunrise
2. Roland
3. Kyan


Edit: Nothing above this was edited, this is merely an addition that I forgot. The reason I'm changing from Gaspar -> uberfish is that we have not gotten a second seer claim yet, which is starting to make me think there is no fool. I think someone would have spoken up by now if they didn't think sunrise was legitimate, so I'm inclined to go with the safe lynch today.

[Serdoa]

uberfish

I agree with what scooter posted.

[Roland]

I see your thinking here, though seeing how many votes are already on uberfish, it seems to me that we must have some werewolves voting for him.

I'm glad you said this. However, I don't think it's minor at all. At this point in the game, I think the 'Wolves would try to hang on to their playerbase for as long as possible - especially since we now have no Baner.

You know, for a supposed Villager you make some awfully suspicious assumptions. :P

Edit: Nothing above this was edited, this is merely an addition that I forgot. The reason I'm changing from Gaspar -> uberfish is that we have not gotten a second seer claim yet, which is starting to make me think there is no fool. I think someone would have spoken up by now if they didn't think sunrise was legitimate, so I'm inclined to go with the safe lynch today.

More interesting thoughts. IF there was a real Seer out there to claim against Sunrise, why in the hell would he? We all saw how stupid it was for me to out Sunrise yesterday - and yet, he still lives. Perhaps the 'Wolves know something we don't? You're perfectly OK with lynching a Villager today, because it means we'll know Sunrise is a 'Fool? And where does that leave us, exactly? Oh, right, down two more Villagers without any clear consensus on a probably 'Wolf suspect.

If there is another Seer, I imagine he would claim so in a PM to a trusted entity - someone above suspicion of being a 'Wolf, while also being open-minded enough to listen.

The more this goes on, the more likely I find it that there is a real Seer out there, and he just is too afraid (and wisely so!) to come forward. After all, if he does come forward, he'll be killed this very Night. Moreover, I find the lack of Uberfish defense across the board rather disturbing - I should think that if he truly was a 'Wolf, there would be SOME subtle attempt to defend - if only by calling question to Sunrise's claims. After all, they have the perfect cover to do so - me.

Worth thinking about, I think. Especially since we still have a whole day.

[scooter]

I'm glad you said this. However, I don't think it's minor at all. At this point in the game, I think the 'Wolves would try to hang on to their playerbase for as long as possible - especially since we now have no Baner.

You know, for a supposed Villager you make some awfully suspicious assumptions. :P

Me and my assumptions might just get me killed . But I stand by this one actually. Barring something crazy happening, uberfish WILL be lynched today. The majority is just overwhelming. Also, if sunrise is the seer, the WW's know it, so starting tomorrow, there will be no baner or no seer, which means the clock is ticking for the villagers to figure out who the other 3 (if I'm remembering correctly) WW's are. Meanwhile, WW's can sit there and chip away at any trusted villagers night after night. If only two werewolves are able to establish "deep cover" - meaning they are generally trusted by all villagers, the WW's will win this game. Actually with no baner or seer, even ONE WW with deep cover can win this game, which is why I'm really suspicious of Sareln now as looking back on it, it's very plausible that he could be a WW with a brilliant cover.

Say for sake of example that Sareln is a WW and sunrise is the seer. If uberfish is a WW, the other WW's would be realizing right now that he is toast very soon, because sunrise knows he is a WW and has outed him. This means uberfish will not make it to the end of the game, so why not get the other WW's a chance to make "deep cover" by being the ones to push uberfish out the door? Especially when after tonight (under this example) they can kill sunrise, so the rest of them will have to be caught exclusively through meta-game and voting records. That's a tough challenge for us to do honestly, and I think we need to hope that sunrise is not the seer, otherwise we still have a game on our hands.

More interesting thoughts. IF there was a real Seer out there to claim against Sunrise, why in the hell would he? We all saw how stupid it was for me to out Sunrise yesterday - and yet, he still lives. Perhaps the 'Wolves know something we don't? You're perfectly OK with lynching a Villager today, because it means we'll know Sunrise is a 'Fool? And where does that leave us, exactly? Oh, right, down two more Villagers without any clear consensus on a probably 'Wolf suspect.

If there is another Seer, I imagine he would claim so in a PM to a trusted entity - someone above suspicion of being a 'Wolf, while also being open-minded enough to listen.

Oh I completely agree, especially with the underlined part. Volunteering that info directly would be ludicrous, because in that case, the wolves don't know who he is and will have to be lucky (no devil) to find him.

If I was the seer, I would PM whoever I felt was the most trusted villager and have him be the one to tell that we have a second seer claim. For me personally, I'd actually go to sunrise himself, as I think it's impossible for him to be a werewolf. I'd PM with him, compare scries, and let sunrise tell us what's going on. Because this has either not happened OR sunrise has kept it from us and still claimed seer, I think we probably don't have a second claimer out there. Sunrise would definitely not keep claiming seer, because what's the point? The only people that don't know what sunrise is are the villagers. The WW know exactly who he is, so hiding that info is only keeping it from the villagers, which hurts us and helps the WW's. There's no reason for sunrise to tell us WHO it is, but at least let us know there's a second claimer, because if the real seer is still hidden, the werewolves already know it from the sunrise visit they made.

The more this goes on, the more likely I find it that there is a real Seer out there, and he just is too afraid (and wisely so!) to come forward. After all, if he does come forward, he'll be killed this very Night. Moreover, I find the lack of Uberfish defense across the board rather disturbing - I should think that if he truly was a 'Wolf, there would be SOME subtle attempt to defend - if only by calling question to Sunrise's claims. After all, they have the perfect cover to do so - me.

Worth thinking about, I think. Especially since we still have a whole day.

I felt this way earlier today, but I've come around on the idea that the lack of an uberfish debate is for the reasons I've stated above. I'm still very much open to changing my mind though (there's enough doubt in the way back of my head), and you or someone else has 24 hours to do it.

[Roland]

Say for sake of example that Sareln is a WW and sunrise is the seer. If uberfish is a WW, the other WW's would be realizing right now that he is toast very soon, because sunrise knows he is a WW and has outed him. This means uberfish will not make it to the end of the game, so why not get the other WW's a chance to make "deep cover" by being the ones to push uberfish out the door? Especially when after tonight (under this example) they can kill sunrise, so the rest of them will have to be caught exclusively through meta-game and voting records. That's a tough challenge for us to do honestly, and I think we need to hope that sunrise is not the seer, otherwise we still have a game on our hands.

Since you're so fond of examples, how about this one:
Taking your example, Sareln is a Werewolf. What happens if Sunrise is the Fool? What happens to Uberfish in your example then? We don't know how the Fool works in this game, so let's assume it's random - if Uberfish IS a 'Wolf, the 'Wolves would probably do as you say... maybe. On the other hand, suppose the 'Wolves know Uberfish is not, in fact, one of them. Do you not agree they would probably act the exact same way?

The point I'm trying to make is that deciding someone's fate entirely (or even mostly) upon how a 'Wolf "should" act is not the best way to go by who to lynch - look at Meiz. :P

Oh I completely agree, especially with the underlined part. Volunteering that info directly would be ludicrous, because in that case, the wolves don't know who he is and will have to be lucky (no devil) to find him.

If I was the seer, I would PM whoever I felt was the most trusted villager and have him be the one to tell that we have a second seer claim.

I'm honestly glad that we find something to agree on.

I felt this way earlier today, but I've come around on the idea that the lack of an uberfish debate is for the reasons I've stated above. I'm still very much open to changing my mind though (there's enough doubt in the way back of my head), and you or someone else has 24 hours to do it.

I'm even more glad you're willing to be open-minded. That gives me hope of seeing my theories fleshed out in full.

[scooter]

Taking your example, Sareln is a Werewolf. What happens if Sunrise is the Fool? What happens to Uberfish in your example then? We don't know how the Fool works in this game, so let's assume it's random - if Uberfish IS a 'Wolf, the 'Wolves would probably do as you say... maybe. On the other hand, suppose the 'Wolves know Uberfish is not, in fact, one of them. Do you not agree they would probably act the exact same way?

What happens to uberfish is that he might be innocent. I was the one pushing this early and I still think he might be. The problem is I don't see anyone who is more likely to be guilty than uberfish, so I'm going with uberfish. My reasons from earlier (no 2nd seer claim) has made me raise my estimate of uberfish being guilty to around 75-80%. I would put my next best bet (Sareln) at around 40-50%.

I think you feel uncomfortable lynching uberfish and understandably so, but who is your alternative? I'm asking honestly, because if not uberfish, then who? And yes I was serious about my last paragraph - I'm asking genuinely because I am open minded about this because we still have no idea if a fool is at play here, and it does play with my head a little that hardly anyone seems to mind.