Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Mr. Nice Guy]

If Uberfish is a 'Wolf, why would he focus on Selrahc a full day before we outed him as the Devil? Moreover, why would he have continued that position well into Day 3 (again, before we outed Selrahc as the Devil)? I can think of no justifiable reason he would sell out his own brethren - especially the Devil - even if by the second night Selrahc had performed his duty and found the "Seer".

Hmmmmmm that's a good question. It's one I've asked myself several times.

Wolves were mainly acting independently. We didn't want to all end up on the same side of the PB flip day 1 because it was very risky.

And that's the quote that keeps coming to mind. I don't know if it makes the wolf case stronger or weaker - honestly with all of the reverse and reverse-reverse psychology it's hard to tell what anything means - but that quote seems significant here.

[Gaspar]

Ok, so I'm posting. Roland did give me permission, though. :P

Bottom line, we have to have an actual, real dyed-in-the-wool seer. f&i said we had one in the game intro post, and while think to some extent he's making up the rules as he goes along, he can't tell us we have a seer in the game rules without giving us one. We can also have a fool, but if we have a fool we have to have yet another, as of yet unnamed seer. I highly doubt if that were the case that that info wouldn't have filtered out by this point, at a minimum as part of a concerted effort to get someone else lynched. We haven't seen anything remotely approaching that. So I feel very comfortable in believing sunrise is the seer. While I don't believe that uberfish has acted especially wolfish at any point in this game, bottom line is, there's no point to having a seer if we don't utilize his information, which is more perfect than any reading comprehension-driven voting. While I think that sort of voting is more fun than listening to seers and owls, it doesn't change the calculus that perfect knowledge is better.

While I could conceivably be convinced to wait an additional day to lynch uberfish, I have yet to see a quality argument presented by anyone to vote for someone else. I certainly have my suspicions as to who the other wolves are, but I see none that I'm convinced are a better shot than believing the seer and taking the following night to reflect on Day 4, and then using Day 5 to suss out other candidates. I can always be convinced to change my mind, but its going to take actual convincing.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

I certainly have my suspicions as to who the other wolves are, but I see none that I'm convinced are a better shot than believing the seer and taking the following night to reflect on Day 4, and then using Day 5 to suss out other candidates.

I couldn't have said it better myself. I almost posted a list of top suspects. Then I realized that I don't have any evidence against any of them. I have suspicions, sure, and some are strong suspicions. But the only person I have any evidence against is the one with a seer claim against him. Even if that evidence is bad, it's better than nothing but suspicions.

[scooter]

(Oh Scooter, if only you knew how much I wanted to rail against you last night - I'll have to send it to you. It's rather epic.)

Please do share, I could use some good reading material

[Lewwyn]

One thing we all need to realize is that confirming the seer isn't a priority anymore. The seer is dead. If it's sunrise, he'll die tonight. If it's someone who's keeping quiet and sunrise is lying or he is the fool, they'll die tonight. Either way, the wolves WILL kill the seer tonight, and no one can do a thing about it. I suggest we let the sunrise/uberfish feud settle itself tomorrow. If sunrise dies tonight, we'll lynch uberfish tomorrow and we'll be 100% sure we've got the right guy. If someone else dies tonight, then we either lynch sunrise (faker WW) or we write him off as the fool, in which case he's a regular villager, and uberfish must be re-evaluated.

Either way, I suggest we leave both of them alone for today, and look at other people. Tomorrow we can decide the fate of sunrise/uberfish, but today we really don't know, so why not leave it for tomorrow when we WILL know for sure? Just seems the logical decision right?


1. Gaspar - It's moderately eerie to me how quick everyone was to dismiss him as a candidate after he collected 6-7 votes just two days ago. I still can't shake the fact that he swapped from Sandover to the baner on day 1 either, but that event is pretty minor to me. It's mostly the quick dismissal of what was once a major suspect that seems out of whack

2. Ug the Barbarian - Speaking from a stricly meta standpoint, if he is a werewolf, he's played a fantastic game. He's done very little to attract attention, he's spoken up for the majority in most disputes, and he's provided very little original material for anyone to judge him on. In contrast, if he's a villager, he hasn't really provided much by the way of original material - meaning I can't think of a time where he's made a case for a suspect. If I'm wrong on this, I'll happily take this back, but I honestly can't think of a single time.

3. Sareln - If he is a werewolf, voting for himself was fricken brilliant. I mean what difference did it make? It was going to be Sandover or Sareln, so why not vote for yourself? If you survive, you have credibility for life. If you die, who cares, a wolf was going to die anyways? He has since stayed under the radar mostly (though he's occasionally contributed), which fits quite nicely. Honestly, in another game if I was in his shoes and I was a werewolf, I'd pull the same stunt, because if it worked, the WW's have a huge chance of winning. Actually I'm talking myself into him, and I may move him up to #2. Nah, I'll leave it for now.

Here's the deal Scooter. I've gone back, I've reread the posts. I look at this post and I say, "That's completely logical." It makes perfect sense to wait on uberfish and confirm by death of sunrise whether he is the seer or fool. Something I've always said is there is more than one wolf. We cannot be fixated on one when there's an opportunity to make a smarter play. Inaction is often better than action. I've told Roland this several times.

So I agree, and I hope everyone reads this part. Not lynching Uberfish today gives us a shot at confirming whether sunrise is a fool or seer and whether Uber is a villager or WW without the possibility of killing a villager to find that out. With the banner dead, we will lose our power roles and we will be unable to scan everyone. I feel that moving up the timetable on that endgame (where we have no owl or seer) is advisable. So lets lynch someone today who is suspicious but hasn't been scried. Its the most effective use of time, while we wait for the seer to die and confirm we shouldn't kill uberfish.

Now onto Scooter's suspects. Gaspar for reasons I've previously stated I do not believe to be a WW. Ug I'm on the fence about. Sareln is super suspicious, though. He voted for Selrahc for mayor, he voted for himself. And Selrahc's switch is really the only thing that saved him. Now that we've confirmed Selrahc is a WW, we know why he switched and lynched Sandover. Why wouldn't Selrahc just stay on Sareln and let an innocent kill himself? The only reason would be to build credibility for himself... and perhaps make sure a wolf gambit was not exposed? If Sareln is a WW then if he were killed we would have A) killed a WW and B) all but proven that Sandover is a WW. They would have lost two of their brethren!

In the end I suppose Roland and Gaspar's gambit actually did force the wolves into action by forcing the votes close enough that Selrahc had to switch to be sure.

Other people I suspect:

Serdoa, Scooter, but then you all know this. Honestly, though, nothing against them is as concrete as the red flags around Sareln.


Of the three Sareln has votes. I believe in bandwagoning for justice. I've said it many times as a result, Sareln.


I hope everyone voting for Uberfish reads this and understands what I'm saying. I don't trust Scooter, in fact, I suspect he will jump off of Sareln because Uber and he are trying to play off Sareln's built up innocence. Their votes for Sareln as suspected wolves only make Sareln's more likely to be innocent, which in turn gives him even more credibility.

By voting for Sareln we are taking time to let Sunrise's role become apparent and making a blow against the wolves in their most trusted undercover agent. win-win.

Edit: typos

[scooter]

Haha, Lewwyn, you do realize I swapped my vote from Sareln to uberfish awhile back? I detailed out my reasons for it, so I won't beat it to death here. I'm still considering switching back to Sareln, but the problem is what I've said - no one has come forward and acted as a mouthpiece for a second claimed seer. If that happens, I will likely swap to Sareln. Until then though, I'm assuming there is no fool, sunrise is legit, and uberfish has my vote. Tentatively of course, because I still do believe in the main idea behind that post.

By the way Lewwyn, why do you suspect me exactly? I mean you even said the post was very logical, and I've been writing posts like that all game, and I've contributed my own thoughts and opinions all game long. What have I done that makes you suspicious? I mean by all means, you can be suspicious if you want, but I can't figure out what I've done other than think for myself and write out my thoughts for everyone else to consider. Sure I've butted heads with Roland, but I've never been unhelpful in the posts, I've merely voiced my concerns, and they were always legitimate concerns. Surely even Roland would understand how I was concerned the last couple days when he was caught lying a couple times. That's understandable right? I guess I'm just confused why you seem to suspect me.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

By voting for Sareln we are taking time to let Sunrise's role become apparent and making a blow against the wolves in their most trusted undercover agent. win-win.

Okay, I get it. I can't believe I'm doing this, but... Sareln.

What if Sunrise is a fool, and we have no seer? Just an owl and a fool? I could see that happening. More than anything else, what made me change my vote was looking back over day 2 and 3. Uberfish lead and championed the cause against Selrahc. I could imagine a wolf voting for Selrahc, but not before the rest of the village like Uberfish did.

Time's running short for me. So if I'm missing something important let me know... it's almost time for bed and then work tomorrow.

[Roland]

Scooter:
Why would you not doubt the idea that there may be a Fool, and Sunrise may be it, when Uberfish voted for Selrahc AS I was making my Seer claim? Why would he sell out his own brethren BEFORE it was made certain he would lose?

You've proving to be more open-minded than I originally gave you credit, and barring our personality clashes, we're actually in agreement about Sareln - look at what everyone has been saying all along! Selrahc switched on Sandover when he could save him - why? Sandover was a 'Wolf. Selrahc was a 'Wolf. Why would Selrahc switch over and save Sandover only to lynch another 'Wolf, knowing full well Sandover would be on the block the very next day? Moreover, what makes more sense - that Selrahc would save Sandover (someone who was dead anyway, even if it got delayed by a day), or Sareln - someone who was completely beyond suspicion for almost 4 Day cycles now? Someone who, if he survived, would not only be immediately and unquestioningly considered a Villager, but give him the PERFECT cover to hide behind - especially when he needed that cover, since he had the Mayor vote in the bag?

Use that brain of yours you're always so desperate to tell me exists. Prove it to me, and tell me there's not absolute logic and reasoning in my arguments. If you grant me that much, I'll pass along that gem of writing I did JUST for you last night.

[scooter]

Sareln

Funny that you ended up talking me into going with the post I argued in favor of early on in this day. Apologies for the flip-flopping today, I just think it's important we get this right since we no longer have a baner, and our seer situation is quite uncertain. The recent comments about uberfish behaving very un-wolf-like in his leading the charge against the devil have swayed me, or at least swayed me enough to go with what I said originally - we can save uberfish for tomorrow if we get verification over-night. I think it's an extremely persuasive case, and on top of that, the Sareln thing looks extremely suspicious now that we have the knowledge of Sandover being a WW and Selrahc being the devil. The wolves really must have been in a bad, bad spot on day 1.

If sunrise dies tonight as the seer though, uberfish must be lynched tomorrow. I think we can all agree on that.

Edit: No changes were made to words above this line. I just thought it should be noted that this post was a cross-post with Lewwyn's below.

[Lewwyn]

Haha, Lewwyn, you do realize I swapped my vote from Sareln to uberfish awhile back? I detailed out my reasons for it, so I won't beat it to death here. I'm still considering switching back to Sareln, but the problem is what I've said - no one has come forward and acted as a mouthpiece for a second claimed seer. If that happens, I will likely swap to Sareln. Until then though, I'm assuming there is no fool, sunrise is legit, and uberfish has my vote. Tentatively of course, because I still do believe in the main idea behind that post.

By the way Lewwyn, why do you suspect me exactly? I mean you even said the post was very logical, and I've been writing posts like that all game, and I've contributed my own thoughts and opinions all game long. What have I done that makes you suspicious? I mean by all means, you can be suspicious if you want, but I can't figure out what I've done other than think for myself and write out my thoughts for everyone else to consider. Sure I've butted heads with Roland, but I've never been unhelpful in the posts, I've merely voiced my concerns, and they were always legitimate concerns. Surely even Roland would understand how I was concerned the last couple days when he was caught lying a couple times. That's understandable right? I guess I'm just confused why you seem to suspect me.

You actually switched off Sareln like I thought you would. Why should I arm a wolf with my arguments ahead of the day I plan to lynch him?

EDIT: Yes I see your cross post. No changes were made to mine either. The bit about the switch voting can be looked at either way I suppose now that you've switched back on to Sareln. The second part of my statement stands.