Realms Beyond Werewolf 2 : Game Thread

[Roland]

If sunrise dies tonight as the seer though, uberfish must be lynched tomorrow. I think we can all agree on that.

Agreed. I'll lead that charge myself.

[Gaspar]

I have 3 questions I'd like answered:

1. Why do we think it possible that there is a fool but no seer? The game rules say we have a seer. If there's no seer, I'd be seriously pissed at f&i. I don't mind secret roles and all that jazz, but if I'm told there's one set of rules for the game and there turns out to be another, that's more than just a cute twist.

2. Before we get to Selrahc's switches, etc, why would Sareln put himself up in the first place on Day 1 if he was a wolf? To make the choice between a wolf and a wolf to provide cover? That seems... odd. I'm not saying I can't see a possibility, I'm saying I feel like we're out-thinking ourselves here. The last time we did that, we had two villagers on the block for votes on Day 2.

3. Absent evidence, doesn't it make more sense to lynch the wolf today, and take time to gather more evidence tomorrow? I get that lynching a few villagers is a necessary evil of the game. Nobody's going to be right everyday. I don't get lynching a possible villager when our seer says he's found a wolf. We *know* sunrise can't be a wolf, because the devil visited him, unless we don't believe the Owl, which is nonsense, since the Owl is how we found the Devil in the first place. So what does that leave sunrise as possibilities:

a. Seer
b. Fool, but the fool play only works if there's another seer. If we have a seer and NOBODY is getting reports of scries from him, well, that makes him the worlds worst seer, no? I see that unlikely.
c. Villager
d. Some other secret role. Since its highly unlikely that there'd be a pro-villager secret role, the only pro-wolf secret role (after a check of Wikipedia) I can think of that devil could scry would be godfather/possessed.

So the only possibility I can see beyond a is d. Even then though, the likelihood is tremendously low.

Someone, anyone, convince me why we would should abandon our seer for a hunch. Do so, and I'll change my vote.

[Roland]

I have 3 questions I'd like answered:

1. Why do we think it possible that there is a fool but no seer? The game rules say we have a seer. If there's no seer, I'd be seriously pissed at f&i. I don't mind secret roles and all that jazz, but if I'm told there's one set of rules for the game and there turns out to be another, that's more than just a cute twist.

I believe there is both a Fool and a Seer. We just need the proof - although we'll have proof enough of Sunrise's true role after tonight, as has been said. No way to stop it anyhow, what with MJW gone.

2. Before we get to Selrahc's switches, etc, why would Sareln put himself up in the first place on Day 1 if he was a wolf? To make the choice between a wolf and a wolf to provide cover? That seems... odd. I'm not saying I can't see a possibility, I'm saying I feel like we're out-thinking ourselves here. The last time we did that, we had two villagers on the block for votes on Day 2.

2 reasons. 1) He did so before he was in any real danger of actually being lynched. 2) It was a desperate gambit to appear to be in favor of saving MJW - the Baner. Ballsy? Hells yes, and it could have blown up in their face big time, but I'm sure with 6 of them all on the same side they could have swung over to Sandover if they found out it wasn't going to work trying to save them - which is exactly what Selrahc did.

3. Absent evidence, doesn't it make more sense to lynch the wolf today, and take time to gather more evidence tomorrow? I get that lynching a few villagers is a necessary evil of the game. Nobody's going to be right everyday. I don't get lynching a possible villager when our seer says he's found a wolf. We *know* sunrise can't be a wolf, because the devil visited him, unless we don't believe the Owl, which is nonsense, since the Owl is how we found the Devil in the first place. So what does that leave sunrise as possibilities:

a. Seer
b. Fool, but the fool play only works if there's another seer. If we have a seer and NOBODY is getting reports of scries from him, well, that makes him the worlds worst seer, no? I see that unlikely.
c. Villager
d. Some other secret role. Since its highly unlikely that there'd be a pro-villager secret role, the only pro-wolf secret role (after a check of Wikipedia) I can think of that devil could scry would be godfather/possessed.

I agree. Sunrise is a Villager. However, I cannot discount the idea that he's the Fool. It would make more sense to me that he's the Fool (and even Sunrise admits it's a possibility - has since earlier!) than to think Uberfish would go out of his way to vote for Selrahc on Day 2 if he was on the same side as Selrahc. Day 3 I guarantee you the 'Wolves dropped Selrahc like a stone once they saw it was all over - a repeat of Day 1, but without the chance for rescue.

So the only possibility I can see beyond a is d. Even then though, the likelihood is tremendously low.

Someone, anyone, convince me why we would should abandon our seer for a hunch. Do so, and I'll change my vote.

Because it's more than a hunch, and it's high time you realize that. You've been taking gambles all game long, with no word as to why (except to myself, in private, and whomever else you may have shared your goals with), and I've gone out of my way to defend you precisely because I've believed in what you've been doing every step of the way. While I certainly am not going to say you owe me, you at least owe yourself the time to step back and really look at everything.

If I'm wrong, we'll know it after tonight - and I guarantee you I'll be the first to hang Uberfish tomorrow. You know me well enough Gaspar - I wouldn't be pursuing this if I didn't believe in it outright. I've been mulling this over since Luddite's death, and hugely so since Selrahc's outing by the Owl. I have every reason to follow through with this, based upon evidence - not emotion.

Do as you will, Gaspar. I'm not going to force your hand on this. You've been a good ally, and for that you have my thanks - regardless of whether you believe me or not, in this or any other matter.

[scooter]

I have 3 questions I'd like answered:

1. Why do we think it possible that there is a fool but no seer? The game rules say we have a seer. If there's no seer, I'd be seriously pissed at f&i. I don't mind secret roles and all that jazz, but if I'm told there's one set of rules for the game and there turns out to be another, that's more than just a cute twist.

Oh I'll be annoyed too if we don't have a seer. Thing is though, with all the administrative twists we've had so far... It would surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me anymore. I think we have a seer though.

2. Before we get to Selrahc's switches, etc, why would Sareln put himself up in the first place on Day 1 if he was a wolf? To make the choice between a wolf and a wolf to provide cover? That seems... odd. I'm not saying I can't see a possibility, I'm saying I feel like we're out-thinking ourselves here. The last time we did that, we had two villagers on the block for votes on Day 2.

Remember though - it was Sandover vs Sareln at the time for the votes. If they are both werewolves, then the WW were clearly going to lose someone on day 1. It would then make sense for Sareln to play the gambit of voting for himself, because if Sandover gets lynched anyways, then he comes out as everyone confirming him as a villager. Add on Selrahc's switches, and the new revelation that Selrahc was the devil, it actually makes more sense for Sareln to be a werewolf than a villager.

3. Absent evidence, doesn't it make more sense to lynch the wolf today, and take time to gather more evidence tomorrow?

The problem is, the only evidence we have that uberfish is a werewolf is that sunrise's scry said so. We also have a large amount of evidence (uberfish's campaign against the devil) that says uberfish is innocent. Which looks more believable - sunrise being the fool, or a werewolf leading the charge to kill the devil when there's still un-found roles out there like the owl (and possibly the seer)? Neither of them seem likely, but one must be true. Honestly, it's 50/50. I think Sareln is better odds than a 50/50, so I vote Sareln. Plus, we will likely learn a lot about uberfish tonight, but our knowledge on Sareln tomorrow will be the same. This is a big deal, therefore voting Sareln today is the wiser choice, both from a meta standpoint, and from a statistical standpoint.

Edit: Just a note that this was cross-posted with Roland

[Gaspar]

The only reason I can't fully jump on board with what's being said here:

The wolves get to read the thread too. If I were a wolf, I'd absolutely not eat sunrise tonight if we lynch someone other than uberfish. Especially if we lynch Sareln and he turns out to be innocent. That way they get a villager kill today, they can let the discredited seer live tonight, and we still have the same argument tomorrow: We'll have a village divided over whether or not sunrise is the seer, which is a perfect opportunity to continue to sow discord and get us voting every which way but up.

Its not that I don't understand this line of reasoning, it is in fact very much in tune with my own ideas on how to best win the game as a villager. The bottom line is this, however: Any plan which relies on the wolves to do us a favor, even if that favor is confirming the seer, is risky at best, foolish at worst.

Here's the full breakdown on what our options are:

1. Lynch Uber and he's a wolf. Sunrise is confirmed as seer, gets eaten tonight by wolves.
2. Lynch Uber and he's a villager. Sunrise is confirmed as not-the-seer, some other target gets eaten tonight by wolves.
3. Lynch Sareln and he's a wolf. Sunrise gets eaten at night and is confirmed as seer by f&i. We unanimously lynch uberfish the next day.
4. Lynch Sareln and he's a villager. Sunrise gets eaten at night and is confirmed as seer by f&i in death. We unanimously lynch uberfish the next day.
5. Lynch Sareln and he's a wolf. Some other target gets eaten at night, and we have this same discussion tomorrow re: validity of seer, though we have lynched a wolf.
6. Lynch Sareln and he's a villager. Some other target gets eaten at night. We have the same discussion re: validity of seer, and are down a villager.

The problem for me is, options 1 and 2 are both useful. There's no non-useful result to lynching uberfish. Options 4,5 and 6 all have varying degrees of suck to them. Option 3 is the lottery, and the village wins the game for sure at that point. Which tells me there's pretty much no way it happens. If Sareln is a wolf, I virtually guarantee the wolves will eat someone else tonight, because they don't want to confirm our seer for us if they don't have to. A seer nobody believes is as useful as no seer at all.

TL;DR: I worry we're playing right into the wolves hands here.

[scooter]

The only reason I can't fully jump on board with what's being said here:

The wolves get to read the thread too. If I were a wolf, I'd absolutely not eat sunrise tonight if we lynch someone other than uberfish.

I had this exact thought earlier today, but the more I've thought about it, this would be nuts by the wolves. For sake of ease in this post, let's say sunrise is the seer. If the WW's let him live tonight, sunrise gets another scry result. Let's say he hits the jackpot and gets a werewolf. We still don't have him confirmed, but he's got another wolf nailed. Every day they let him live is a day he loses credibility, but to be safe he'd keep sending in scries. The villagers sure aren't going to lynch sunrise because we know he can't be a werewolf. Therefore the WW's need to lynch him at some point. Once they do lynch him, every sunrise scry becomes legitimate, and all those he labeled as werewolves will go down consecutively, possibly resulting in a villager win.

Of course, if the real seer is still out there, the WW's know it and will go looking for him tonight. So yes, it's very possible that sunrise lives tonight and we don't know what to do exactly tomorrow. I'm just saying, if sunrise IS the seer, it's highly unlikely that the wolves would risk letting him live, because that could result in more than one of them going down. Remember, as soon as sunrise dies, uberfish dies. If sunrise identifies more wolves, they die too as soon as sunrise dies.

It's definitely not a sure thing, and we definitely don't know sunrise is the seer. Because of this stuff though, the wise move is the play the percentages and wait on uberfish, just in case the wolves decide to sacrifice uberfish to kill sunrise, which would probably be an acceptable trade for them at this stage - depending on how many other WW's are suspected by true villagers. Their problem is if they don't trade uberfish for sunrise now, they might have to trade uberfish + 1 or 2 other WW's for him later.

Of course, if sunrise isn't the seer, our job is more difficult. Let's cross that bridge tomorrow though, when we'll have more information. That info might help us tremendously or muddy things, but it'll still be more info, and maybe some of us can crack the truth. Just remember that if sunrise dies tonight, while the wolves might be doing us a favor in the short-term, they might actually be doing themselves a favor in the long-term for the reasons I outlined above.

[Roland]

I've laid out my case for you Gaspar. Either you take it on its face value or you don't. We may yet hear from someone that there is, in fact, another Seer out there. They may be waiting to see what happens, for all we know.

Oh, and your #5 is wrong. If Sareln's a 'Wolf, and Sunrise doesn't get eaten, we know for sure he's the Fool - otherwise why would the 'Wolves spare him? I agree that #3 is hugely unlikely, though - at least we have that.

Do what you will. I'm not going to beg you, least of all in public (nor in private). You know what I believe, and what others are coming to believe. I've weighed it all, and as best I can see, this IS the best course of action. If I didn't truly believe that, I wouldn't follow it.

[Roland]

Sareln

Lewwyn

[Gaspar]

Someone double check this, but I believe it to be up-to-date.

Tally:

Mayor:
4v: Lewwyn (Gaspar, Irgy, Rowain, Roland)
3v: Roland (Mr Nice Guy, haphazard1, uberfish)
1v: haphazard1 (Dantski)
1v: Sareln (Kyan)

No vote: Serdoa, Sareln

Not voted: scooter, Ug the Barbarian,sunrise

Lynch:
7v: Uberfish(haphazard1, Gaspar, Irgy, Dantski, Ug, Kyan, Serdoa)
6v: Sareln (Uberfish, Sareln, Lewwyn, Mr Nice Guy, scooter, Roland)


not voted: Rowain, sunrise

OOV:

1) Mr Nice Guy vote uberfish
2) Lewwyn votes uberfish
3) uberfish votes Sareln
4) haphazard1 votes uberfish
5) Serdoa votes Sareln
6) Gaspar votes uberfish
7) Sareln votes uberfish
8) Irgy votes uberfish
9) Dantski votes uberfish
10) Scooter votes Gaspar
11) Lewwyn switches to Scooter
12) Ug votes uberfish
13) scooter switches to uberfish
14) Serdoa switches to uberfish
15) Lewwyn switches to Sareln
16) Mr Nice Guy switches to Sareln
17) scooter switches to Sareln
18) Roland votes for Sareln

[Sareln]

Umm, I'm pretty sure I'm voting to lynch Uberfish right now, not myself. I'll get back to you on my trump for being not-a-wolf, I need to check in with someone first.