Except for Gaspar I can agree with that Dantski. I still don't understand why he is probably a villager. Is it because he didn't want to tell anyone his plans (which didn't work) or is it because he does insult people who do not trust him?
probably villagers - sareln, gaspar + Irgy (if his owl result was from the old scry)
those in the firing line - scooter, serdoa, rowain, Mr Nice Guy, haphazard
Do any of the villagers disagree with this?
I do not disagree.
We must talk, or we will lose. So even if you think there's no point in the discussion, let's talk!
The following is made with the assumption of the innocence of Gaspar and Irgy, and an ignorance of all players previous actions. I divided the remainder into two groups, Scooter/Serdoa and Rowain/MNG/Haphazard.
Player-Action-Invariant
Hypothesis 1:
Scooter and Serdoa are innocent, then our Wolves are Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, and Haphazard. Hypothesis 2:
Scooter or Serdoa is a wolf, but not both, leaving us a grouping of two from Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, and Haphazard. Hypothesis 3:
Scooter and Serdoa are wolves, leaving us one in the group of Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, and Haphazard.
How this plays out:
Hanging one of Serdoa or Scooter has a 0%/50%/100% chance of catching a wolf based on the possible game-states.
Hanging one of Rowain, Mr. Nice Guy, and Haphazard has a 100%/66%/0% chance of catching a wolf based on the possible game states.
Players
A Case for Serdoa's Innocence:
Maybe it's just Serdoa's sense of fair-play, but I'd be inclined to trust that he's a villager with his constant repetition that Fire & Ice should give us the Owl's reading for himself under the old rules. If he's a wolf, then he's throwing himself on the pyre for admirable reasons. If he's a villager, it cements his innocence.
Additionally, the rule change came not after snagging Selrahc with the owl, but rather the night of scanning Serdoa. So you could argue that we're in a double-blind with the game admin. Did he change the rule because we were going to get another wolf (Serdoa) with the owl? Or did he just finally twig to the idea that the Owl was effectively another seer in this game and fixed it this round knowing that with a villager scan he wasn't going to give us another freebie wolf? I view the guess/double-guess line of thought as not useful, since that's just the fortunes of playing under this GM and I've no way to distinguish between the two. Since I need to pick, I'm going to go with option 2.
Therefore, I'm also inclined to interpret the results of the scan on Serdoa as being clean.
A Plan:
This boils the group down to the four of Scooter, Mr. Nice Guy, Haphazard, Rowain. We can hang all four of these before losing, but I would suggest we hang Scooter last and Rowain first. Since that's my personal "gut" (aka worthless ) suspicion.
Serdoa, if I could remove Scooter from this grouping of possibilities somehow, Gaspar could take his place at the end of the line (the last hanging). I dislike how we've gotten to coinflip stage with the hanging of Roland, but them's the breaks.
So, Mr. Nice Guy, Rowain, Haphazard. I've presented a plan that guarantees your deaths but not the village's victory. I'd like to make it better and shift the odds more towards our favor. Why are you innocent?
I think we need to not work too hard on this stuff until after the lynch results come in, for reasons I will not proffer until after the lynch results come in. Nonetheless, I think the general outline of the discussion as Sareln presents it leaves our best chance of catching the final wolves.
To Serdoa: If you'll note, I really have only spent time insulting Rowain, who has some jilted-lover level of fascination with me. I'm sorry if you find that offensive. I find the fact that someone could somehow decide that after I spent an entire day basically jumping up and down screaming that you're all screwing up big time, be proven correct, and then somehow I'm suspect number one a little offensive, truth be told. So if I reacted emotionally to that, well, then put me on a long list of people who got over-emotional about inane accusations this game.
A huge part of me would rather the wolves just eat me tonight, as this game has been unbelievably frustrating to play for me. As long as I'm alive, however, I can't stop trying to win, its in my nature.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
Can someone tell my why Gaspar is a probable villager? All I've ever seen him do is lash out at anyone who dares to suspect him, but I don't quite understand why it's considered to be concrete fact that he is clean. I guess I'm just getting annoyed with the fact that he lashes out at anyone who isn't convinced that he's a villager, which I'm not (the only one's I'm convinced of is Lewwyn and Dantski). I think he's more likely than most people, and I'm not about to vote to lynch him, but his behavior is bizarre in that he acts like anyone who suspects him is a complete, raging lunatic.
Gaspar Wrote:Damnit, I knew it. There goes the last bit of logic and reason in the thread.
This from someone who has done so very much to promote logic and reason.
Let's get this day started: Gaspar
He has been on my suspect list from very early on, but after escaping on Day 2 there has not been any real pressure on him. Not sure why, as he has spent a lot of time attacking other people and refusing to share his suspicions (usually with some statement about how he does not want to reveal his thinking at that time). Lots of proposed scenarios -- such as Sareln a handful of posts ago before his death -- just leave him out of the list of possible wolf candidates. Why is this? Why is he just assumed to be innocent?
I think he is a wolf, and should be our next target.
) suspicion.
