Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Sandover]

I'm curious- why are you so convinced that Lew is innocent? I don't suspect him either, but there's a significant difference between not finding someone suspicious and actually trusting them.

Everybody can't just sit on the fence, because then we'll get nowhere. In terms of who's most likely to be a villager, Lewwyn is my best bet at this point in time, so I chose to perceive him as such. That said, I don't trust him. His actions in the last game makes him less than trustworthy as a villager. For now, though, I'm going by the assumption he's innocent and intend to crusade against those getting him lynched, if he does end up as today's "winner".

I still don't like the piling on MJW. It's way to easy for the wolves to get him targeted, and I don't think lynching him will help us much in terms of using his death to uncover more wolves, if he is indeed innocent. It's also way too easy for them to casue a pile on Lewwyn, due to his hard desire to get MJW out of the game, and make him look like a possible wolf.

Personally, I don't think Cull is cleared by any means. However, I also believe Pocketbeetle is due for some more votes.

[zakalwe]

@Irgy. I did say "connect", not "collude".

I like your signature btw. I think I read it a couple of times previously before I realized it was a signature.

[uberfish]

Is it possible that Selrahc is a wolf again and his request is aimed at people like you to protect some of his young packmates? Like for example Pocketbeetle who was killed early in Game1? or for example Jkaen?

I had a bad feeling about selrahc's request too, although my suspicion was more along the lines of: Selrahc knows we aren't voting off a new player today anyway, so who's that post aimed at? The wolves. Could be an attempt to subtly distance himself from them.

[zakalwe]

Following up on my previous post... regarding this statement from Irgy.

It's funny that you describe us as "connect"ing when I've done almost nothing but argue with him the whole time so far, but I can see a twisted logic in it.

Irgy, when I re-read this post just now I had to wonder. Are you trying to distance yourself from MJW?

[Meiz]

Currently our top two lynch targets are the top two posters. I firmly believe that this is a bad idea. First of all, in my opinion nothing they've said so far is yelling of wolf behavior. Secondly, discussion is what we want, so that should not be punished on day 1. I would imagine that it would only make villagers afraid to voice their opinions, which would be excellent for the wolves. Regarding the third candidate, I agree that Pocketbeetle has been very quiet when compared to his normal activity, but I can also understand his reasons, stated in his second post. I feel that pocketbeetle could be a strong asset, if playing in the village team, so I'm not ready to lynch him quite yet.

What I'm trying to say is, that silence and not committing should be punished, and that way we force wolves to talk. It's basically the same theory as Irgy suggested in WW2, and I agree with that. Based on this philosophy, these three names stand out for me personally:

Gold Ergo Sum. He has posted very little and his posts have virtually had no content so far.

Cull. Has not really presented any own ideas. MJW lynch vote and novice mayor vote where easy picks (leading candidates, easy to blend in). I was trying to get some pressure against him with votes, but that pressure never took a wind, so he didn't have to take it seriously. His defense was half hearted at best:

Lynching me is fine(because as people have pointed out, a certain number of village lynchs is ok with the #s of team wolf and team villager, but if you're lynching me based on the idea that I'm silent or because I spoke up and my ideas are bad, the former doesn't really work without lyching quite a bit of other people, and the later is sort of hits the same problem as the former.

I don't agree with that. I think villagers motivation should be try to avoid lynching, and present theories that help to find real targets.

Jkaen. I think Mr. Nice Guy described him well as a generally quiet person, who is avoiding voting blocks. Of course Jkaen switched his vote to MJW later, but that was after this comment, so I still find it a bit suspicious. More suspicious to me personally is the fact, that Jkaen is painting a target on my back with his roleplay. And as it is "just roleplay", he can easily switch his attitude later if necessary.

I'd like to underline the fact, that these are not any rock solid accusations, but that's the unfortunate case for day 1. I just think there are better candidates than the current ones.

[Jkaen]

If it helps I can promise to keep the target painted on you in my roleplay for the whole game

[Irgy]

Irgy, when I re-read this post just now I had to wonder. Are you trying to distance yourself from MJW?

Well If you call that distancing, wait until you see what's coming. I wrote the rest of this earlier, with intention to post it now, unless of course something significantly changed in the meantime. Which it doesn't seem to have.


For all that I argued to keep some other candidates open so as not to completely waste the day, and despite reasons I've given in favour of keeping him alive, since I'm off to bed soon it's time for me to put my vote on MJW. Here's my reasoning:

MJW is a liability for reasons which have both everything and nothing to do with what he posts. The biggest problem with MJW is that everyone wants to lynch him. So imagine a scenario where he survives for a few days. Every single day, if you want your vote to count, it's going to be a choice of "Candidate X? Or MJW?". Assuming for the moment that he is on the village team (since it's obviously a good idea to lynch him if he's not anyway) then that basically doubles the chance each day of ending up with a choice of two villagers to vote for, and a wasted day as result. Every time a wolf wants to vote for someone without standing out from the crowd, there he is, MJW. Regardless of anything he ever posts, simply his continued existence in the game is disruptive purely because of his unpopularity.

Do I think he's a wolf? I have no idea. He's said he's not a village power-role, so assuming he wouldn't fake role-claim as a wolf the odds are already improved to 5/18 rather than the base 5/23 (why does everyone keep saying 22?). Although on the other hand, if he would sometimes fake role-claim as a wolf then that he hasn't makes the odds change the other way. I still think as a wolf he would have been given some advice from the other wolves - maybe not put on a leash like I said earlier, but at least given advice, which makes me a little dubious about it. But honestly I don't think any of us could tell wolf-MJW from village-MJW. He likely wouldn't act much different, and trying to pick a hole in his logic that catches him out is like trying to find a particular needle in a huge needlestack. So, he strikes me as a strong good-wolf/bad-villager candidate. Except of course for his unfortunate tendency to make people want to lynch him independent of any wolf-like behaviour, but as I've said that's disruptive on its own.

[Lewwyn]

Currently our top two lynch targets are the top two posters. I firmly believe that this is a bad idea.

Agreed, and not just because I'm one of them.

Jkaen. I think Mr. Nice Guy described him well as a generally quiet person, who is avoiding voting blocks. Of course Jkaen switched his vote to MJW later, but that was after this comment, so I still find it a bit suspicious. More suspicious to me personally is the fact, that Jkaen is painting a target on my back with his roleplay. And as it is "just roleplay", he can easily switch his attitude later if necessary.

I think you're just wigging out because he saw you transform.:neenernee

No, on a serious note, I agree with a lot of what Meiz has said. Going after someone who has been less helpful or active in this cycle is the better choice. I believe Mardoc can be added to this list, though I'd have to go check, that is off the top of my head. I will go with Meiz's reasoning though.

My vote on Ichabod isn't really gaining traction at the moment so I believe it would be better spent on Cull once again. While I appreciate his difficulties with work and time constraints, I also think the timing of his free time (directly after the first votes were cast on him) was a bit coincidental and suspicious. It may be simply a fluke but it could also be a bit of a ploy. Exaggerating his inability to post.

Good post Meiz, solid points.

[Irgy]

Crossposted with Meiz. I agree with everything you say Meiz, but my thoughts above on MJW are more significant to how I want to vote today.

[uberfish]

ok, reviewing the main lynch targets for today

#1 MJW. Definitely a source of out-of-the-box ideas, the problem is they're often SO far outside the box that they're off the planet. Although he is acting less suspiciously than WW2 so far, I'm still not convinced of either his innocence or guilt. Also, too much of a "safe" lynch target for people not wanting to reveal anything.

#2 Lewwyn. The group of people that tried to push his bandwagon hard in the middle of the day mostly flipped away to others after their motivations were questioned. This makes me lean slightly towards his innocence.

#3 Pocketbeetle. An inactivity lynch on the basis that he's normally more talkative. However, if PB was an active-lurking wolf he could easily have made a couple more posts to clear suspicion off himself and redirect the inactivity lynch to someone else.


I'd still rather lynch Novice... I don't like the way he has been trying to initiate momentum against people today. I'll discount his initial PB vote with "jokey RP" reasoning as part of the meaningless early random votes. However he was part of the mid-day Lewwyn push for no particular reason, then pointing fingers at me based on metagame and covering with another "jokey RP" post, then switching back to PB with yet another "jokey RP" post.

And 9 people want him as mayor.