Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Anyway, just wanted to clarify. You know, it still amazes me how many people want to lynch me just because of my posting. Seriously!

I'm mostly just messing with you . . . mostly. :neenernee

Thanks for the clarification.

[Ichabod]

Wow. Stalking me much? :P

Anyway, it's still early Ichabod. If you've seen my style in WW2 you'll note I'm not often the first to post on any given day. I take my time and analyze things to death before committing. I'm not swaying from that style - after all, it's served me well thus far this game.

Always on the watch for possible wolves :neenernee

The reason I'm asking for opinions is because I'm lost right now. I don't have strong feelings against anyone and I don't think I'll have the time to go through the thread again until the end of next sunday. A pity, since the game is so much fun, but it's real life problems.

So I was looking for people to do the hard work for me!

[pocketbeetle]

At the time before PB's post PB was leading with 7 votes Selrahc followed by 6 and novice by 5. Now tell me why didn't Selrahc switch against PB? It would have sealed the deal on him. No he waited until PB made his post attacking me

Because it's very likely that there were 1 or more wolves already voting for me (and one of those could be you).
Selrahc is an experienced careful wolf, he's not going to make basic mistakes. It's not good wolf behaviour to be all doing the same thing, hence why he didn't vote for me.

Furthermore, it could even be argued that you're a wolf who has overplayed their hand and therefore was being discarded.
If Selrahc had survived, he could have gained some credibility for lynching you and avoided the vote on Day 3, whereas you were always going to be voted on again.
Makes sense for Selrahc to vote for you imo.

I cast my vote early and later ask for support because at that time the village was too devided for my comfort. After that the 3 maintargets began to shape: PB, Selrahc and novice.
Before PB made his entry Selrahc could have easily switched to PB (together with at least one other wolf) . This would have made the later following Rowain-BW nearly impossible and most likely sealed the deal against PB.
Now why did he not do it? Why did he not grasp this possibility?. He as a wolf knows full well who is a villager or not. so if PB is a villager I'm absolutly sure that he would have jumped on PB making sure to lynch him and as a consequenz lynch me the next day.
So his reluctance to do this makes only sense when PB is a wolf. After PB made his post most of the novice votes disappear and march straight onto me. Clearly Selrahc (& friends) did't want to lynch PB but were very eager to get rid of me.

Typing the exact same things over and over, even in bold text, doesn't make your arguments more convincing. Not by a long shot.

You've been repeating the same things since Day 1: "Pb is a wolf. I don't know why, but I'm really really sure, vote for him!"
What's more disappointing to me is that people are actually listening to you.

I critisize Serdoa for shoving responisbility onto someone while I take the responsibility in my hands. Yet he tries to spin it as if I wouldn't like villagers to take responsibilty.
Everyone who has read FFH2PBEM1 knows about the spinning-power of a certain ratman.

Blah blah blah.
You didn't want our mayor, Novice, to have the power of more than one vote on Day 1 (despite what he achieved on Day 2 with it) yet you're happy to order others to vote for me.
It's contradictory behaviour.

I asked for help to lynch PB before anybody put out any theory. I didn't ridicule Mardoc like some people did and my obfuscating better arguments worked so well that Selrahc got lynched by 9/21 people. Clearly the village has to get rid of me else I obfuscate them into lynching another wolf

Do I read that right? You're trying to take credit for Selrahc being lynched, despite the fact you never typed a single line of text about him?
My reply:

Consider a situation.

• You're a villager. You know for certain you are.
  
• Someone is campaigning to have you lynched, they're encouraging others to vote for you.
  
• They have no evidence to back up their claim, they're just going with their gut and apparently a personal dislike?
  
• Is that person a good villager? In any shape or form?
  

No, they're spreading irrational confusion and possibly obfuscating better arguments and campaigns that other villagers are trying to highlight.
And that's assuming the best case scenario, that the bad villager is actually a villager, and not a wolf.

At the very least, you're a bad villager.
I think the Jkaen vote could have some merit, yet you (and the hyperactive bunny you seem to have collected along the way) keep bringing up this campaign to have me lynched, forcing me to defend myself, and so are attracting attention away from other possible wolves.
You have no reasons, you have zero proof.

Do I have to stick it in capitals?
BAD - VILLAGER - BEHAVIOUR, POSSIBLE WOLF.

For the exact same reasons as yesterday, my vote is the same.

Rowain

[pocketbeetle]

Oh, and in an effort to actually be useful to the village (and not just making lots of posts trying to get one player lynched ):
I would argue that I haven't yet seen any real reasons on why people are voting for Zakalwe.

Selrahc and Zakalwe both switched quickly to Rowain on Day 2.
For the same reasons as the first paragraph in my post above, I think it's unlikely that two wolves (one confirmed) would do the exact same thing within a close timeframe.
I think there are better candidates to be voting on atm.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

A little background, since I know that people like Roland, GES, etc have wanted to hear more from me. In the last WW game I set up a spreadsheet to track lynch votes. Along with noting everyone's votes as the game progressed, I also tracked the order of votes. This made it easy for me to distinguish patterns in voting and helped me identify wolves, especially as the mid- and late-game came. That's why my voting record improved as the game wore on. This game, I have had more time constraints in real life. As a result, I have no such list of my own to use, and have had to rely on others' analyses of votes.

So I find myself a little frustrated. My current target, and one who I feel I should be selling others on, is JKaen. (this is where, if we had PMs enabled, I'd send you a PM saying "nothing personal) ... I find the voting tendencies that others have analyzed shows he's a little suspicious. Then I go through his posts, and I find myself as frustrated as I was in WW2 when I went through Irgy's posts. There are plenty of them, but there just isn't enough content for me to dig through and quote tonight.

I suppose the only post that I really have that makes me think is this one:

I thought we just covered I only voted 50% the same as you?

Additionally I admitted my support of protecting new people was self serving.

I was happy to shrug of irgy's suspicion of me, but you pushing on me with no basis is starting to feel a bit odd

This was a response to F&I:

My suspect list
Jkaen - I just got the fealing that he was following my lead. I understand new players following peoples lead for a day or so but, It was that he was following MY lead that made me suspicios. Also he was suporting serlahc's proposal to keep new players in the game.

So we have F&I pointing out two important things about JKaen...
*He was following others' leads - floating. This is a clear werewolf tactic, one that can give a wolf a cover if they are caught... and it can also help other wolves distance themselves from an outed packmate. This is probably the #1 reason I'm voting for JKaen, and the #1 reason I hope others will join me.
*Selrahc was proposing to keep new players in the game. From the perspective that Selrahc was a wolf, that makes sense. Keep the less experienced, better chances of a wolf win. But how about a real killer ... what if there's a good portion of the wolves within the inexperienced crowd. Then we keep them around, we keep the wolves around. And as JKaen said, he was acting in a self-serving manner when he supported Selrahc's proposal. Yeah, that was self-serving. But was it also pack serving? I'd like to find out.

TL:dr version: JKaen reminds me of Irgy in WW2. He wants to keep people alive that benefit the wolves. Therefore something is not right, and the best way to find out is to join me in lynching him.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Oh, and in an effort to actually be useful to the village (and not just making lots of posts trying to get one player lynched ):

Referring to me? I've done that in both games. Of course, so far I have a very high accuracy rate when I do that, and I'm absolutely terrible when I don't. So I suppose I should keep it up?

I would argue that I haven't yet seen any real reasons on why people are voting for Zakalwe.

Selrahc and Zakalwe both switched quickly to Rowain on Day 2.
For the same reasons as the first paragraph in my post above, I think it's unlikely that two wolves (one confirmed) would do the exact same thing within a close timeframe.
I think there are better candidates to be voting on atm.

I also think there is at least one better candidate - see my above post. But I think this point needs to be hammered in again and again:

Wolves will seldom act as a pack

So while we can and should use lynch votes to help us find wolves, we're going to gain more from the order of votes cast, and the votes that don't make the final tallies. People - wolves and villagers alike - will challenge us to find a "group that fits", but that may or may not work out. As a matter of fact, as long as we have masons, our "group that fits" may as well be a group of known innocents as a group of wolves. Consider last game --- anyone could have fought to lynch me and Haphazard because our votes matched all game long. But we were both innocent, playing as pseudo-masons. In fact:

Villagers will act as a pack more often than wolves

All other things aside, we're wiser to look at players who are playing as individuals, following other individuals or groups - essentially the ones trying to fit into a pack but still not being part of the pack.

[Bruindane]

So what are your reasons for voting Zakalwe, Bruindane? (Or did you already say?)

I cross posted with Sandover & Rowain, where I essentially said I had no clue what to do next. However, when I saw that they voted for Zakalwe, I recognized immediately that all three were on my not-trusted list. Sandover from day one. Given the history of them switching votes I thought I would try to pin them down on their first selection. Besides I was a bit peeved at the hostile attitude directed at Zakalwe for using rp.

I have a theory about some wolves and I would like to test it.

This is completely acceptable for Sandover because everybody knows not to ask him for his reasons. Not so well with for Rowain apparently. So if I may, take the suspicion of a confirmed innocent.

Humans. Catch a wolf and argue into the early hours of the morning anyway... but a couple of good points have come up.

1) I agree that Zakalwe's voting behaviour so far has been generally suspicious.

Novice apparently has two votes + a tiebreak since Sandover is going to follow him around for whatever reason. I really dislike this play.

I hesitate to point this point this out, but the voting was clumsily done if the two of them had a true connection. Our masons would not show their hand that easily as Sandover's vote changes were not required to achieve the lynching of Selrahc.

So it's either Rowain or Selrahc. I don't care much for either of the two, so I'm basically... what's that word?

Indifferent.

(Thank you google translator.)

As much I'd like to remain on the fence on this one for that reason, that's illogical, since every abstaining villager will effectivively increase the value of each werewolf vote.

I've advocated to lynch novice, and he's voting for Rowain, so lets check how much our mayor's judgement is really worth since you want to let him live.

So, I reveal my hand. I do not have any particular reason to vote for Zakalwe specficially, only because Sandover did.

As an aside, I know that Roland must be laughing at me, because I tend to vote impulsively and don't articulate the reasons as well as I should.

[scooter]

Referring to me? I've done that in both games. Of course, so far I have a very high accuracy rate when I do that, and I'm absolutely terrible when I don't. So I suppose I should keep it up?

Nope, I think he's talking about Rowain. Rowain's obsession with Pocketbeetle is really quite bizarre, and I can't make a bit of sense about it. He's been extremely convinced that PB is a wolf for the entire game, but he's never actually had any real reasons... The only people who are 100% sure if someone is a villager/wolf are the wolves themselves, which is why I am voting for Rowain. I do, however, reserve the right to change my vote as more information comes to light, as I'm guessing the second half of this day will be a bit more chaotic. Regardless, Rowain feels very much like a wolf in this game, so he gets my vote for now.

Apologies for not being around much - had a lot going on today, and when I was on the forum, I've been enjoying the start of PBEM14 a bit much, as evidenced by the current rate of 12 posts/turn . /shamelessplug

[Bruindane]

I cross posted with Sandover & Rowain, where I essentially said I had no clue what to do next. However, when I saw that they voted for Zakalwe, I recognized immediately that all three were on my not-trusted list.

edit the above to read:

I cross posted with Sandover & Lewwyn, where I essentially said I had no clue what to do next. However, when I saw that they voted for Zakalwe, I recognized immediately that all three were on my not-trusted list.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

As an aside, I know that Roland must be laughing at me, because I tend to vote impulsively and don't articulate the reasons as well as I should.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, your posts are typically as loquacious as Rolands.

Seriously though, you and Zakalwe have kept this game tremendously entertaining for me, even with my limited time this last week.