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Selrahc
Again dead, but maybe some light can be shed now we know he was a werewolf?
Post 1 - MJW Lynch and Meiz mayor with no reasons
Post 2, 3, 9 - No content
Post 4 - The famous lets not kill new people post. annoyed MJW didn't fake role claim, explained further in post 5.
Posts 6-8 - explaining the dont kill new people idea
Post 10 - Defending Brud's picture painting speed
Post 11 - suggests low post count is not a good reason to lynch, and that vote hopping is not a good idea
Post 12 - 13, 19-22 general defense
Post 14 - wants to investigate mardocs 5 wolf theory by lynching novice
Post 15 - states baner shouldn't protect himself
Posts 16-17 - suggests saving a fool claim before you are just about to be lynched, if there is a counter claim we lynch both
Post 18 - switches to Rowain based on weak PB argument
Ok, doesn't really tie in with anybody, people implicated from the comments seem to be new players and PB, less implication for Rowain
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So, where to start... I guess I'd better start by describing what kind of player I see myself, and rest of you can see if my behavior so far fits to that.
Me and sandover have one thing common. Both of us are not afraid to throw votes around. And also... no, that's about it  . My tactic for WW games so far has been to put pressure on people and make them talk. Even if I might not pick anything from the discussion that follows, I hope that someone more observant will be able to spot something that helps us to find the wolves. Best way to apply the pressure? Form, or jump on the bandwagon. For example I have now stated my suspicions against Sandover, but he does not have any need to react to them. After all, there would be just my single vote against him. If other people would agree with me and start to vote against Sandover, I would have no problems at jumping in. (But I doubt that this would actually make Sandover talk, since no one is expecting that from him. If he's a wolf, he has the perfect cover for not explaining anything he does).
Anyway, back to me. I'm trying my best to make my own theories and conclusions, but I'm never convinced that they are that waterproof. Usually when someone better worded (for example Roland, Ichabold, uberfish) talks about their own theory, and that theory includes a suspect of mine, my instant first reaction is that his theory is better than mine. Don't know why, probably some self confidence issue. So you could say that I'm not a leader, and I prefer to follow someone else's lead. Btw. I find it very funny that Roland mentioned my game same as in WW2, but little wiser. Roland, what are you smoking?  . Where do you see the wiser part?
For Irgy and rest of you:
Irgy Wrote:Lynch votes though, Meiz is the wagon-driver. Never the first vote, but always the vote to turn it into something. Pretty well described actually. I feel I've succeeded in my play, since you say that my votes have "turned it into something" 
Irgy Wrote:Both Lewwyn and Cull on day 1. Day 2 Mardoc, which failed to get off the ground, then Selrahc for a while, but switching to novice when Selrahc started to look dangerous. Then onto Rowain when the chance arose. Despite this being a shorter paragraph than the last, this is the core of my case.
FWIW, I found him by looking for suspicious Rowain bandwagoners, then found the pattern continued to previous votes.
So, wolf, or just an innocent but fickle stirrer? His posts that I've looked at just now certainly make an effort to seem as if there's reasons for his votes every time, which belies the fact that he's jumped onto almost every wagon he's had a chance to. With the notable exception of Pocketbeetle, who he's conspicuously avoided and effectively protected. This connection won't mean much though until we know more about one or the other of them.
Day 1 we had no facts, so I thought we get some facts out by putting pressure for some people. That's the only reason I voted Lewwy on day 1. I did see MJW as likely innocent, so Cull seemed like a player trying to keep low profile. I was the second to vote against him, and kept my vote. Cull didn't give me any reason to change my vote.
Day 2 votes I explained already, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post122230
I did avoid and "protected" PB on day 2, because I had no read on him in one way or another. He had not given out anything that would let me suspect him or say he's a villager, so I thought I could always return to PB later, when he has actually put some input. I had no problem with both Selrahc and Rowain being on the chopping block, since I suspected that either one of them could be a wolf. So Rowain bandwagon was an easy jump to take. If at any point had Rowain lessen my suspicions against him, I would have probably jumped back against Selrahc.
I'll follow up with more thoughts regarding my suspects. Is there any other accusations that I have missed, or that come to your minds?
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Roland Wrote:For now, I'm going to let him sit on the back burner (Sandover is more than happy to put pressure on him anyway).
I wonder, should I read that as an outburst of irony or as a very first indirect and extremelly minimal show of appreciation for something I've done these games?
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Sorry Roland and Lewwyn, I appreciate you both did respond to my comments, but neither of you changed your vote. Which is fine, because I respect your reasons for not changing. My point was just that I've been largely ignored. Which I'm not complaining about, just observing.
Serdoa Wrote:Anyway, I am willing to cast my vote on PB, if AND only if, I am guaranteed that Lewwyn, Roland, Rowain and all the others being conviced he is a wolf will be voting for Rowain the next day if PB is found innocent.
I can't think of a better way to lynch two villagers. I've seen villages self-destruct like this more than once.
As for wolfish behaviour, it changes every game as it tries to second guess itself all the time. That's why no-one can agree on what it is. Plus, some of the people in the argument are there to sabotage it. None of that changes the fact that it's what we need to look for. Just take people's definitions of it with a grain of salt.
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Sandover
Post 1 - Meiz Lynch, pushes for himself as Mayor
Post 2, 8, 13, 19, 20 - no content
Post 3 - Votes Lewwyn for mayor, still campaigning for himself
Post 4 - Lynch Lewwyn, Mayor MJW switch due to early pile on
Post 5 - Novice mayor, doesnt want to lynch F&I or MJW. Suspicious of Irgy, but more so of Lewwyn
Post 6 - Switch to Zak due to him RPing
Post 7 - switches to cull to put late pressure on (probably too late though)
Post 9-10 - defends Lewwyn's lynch of MJW
Post 11 - doesn't like easy lynch nature of MJW, further defense of Lewwyn, chooses to put pressure on PB with a lynch vote
Post 12 - Switches mayor to Rowain and Cull to lynch, no reason. Agrees with Irgy that a MJW lynch will tell us little
Post 14 (day 2) votes for Novice due to baner fishing
Post 15 - Identifies PB and Novice as potential WW pair
Post 16 - pushes for Novice
Post 17-18 - switches to Rowain (instead of Selrahc) to test mayors vote and follows a later switch to Selrahc
Post 21-22 - Revists the Zak using RP as cover theory. Follows with a defense of novice and a lynch vote on Zak.
Post 23 - votes onto Meiz to force a post
Analysis,
Ok, I was struggling to keep track of his voting, even just reading back over the summary above. Seems a very scatter gun approach, and doesn't stick to any theory yet alone vote for very long. The only one he has really pushed was on novice, who right now is probably looking like the strongest villager. Hasn't got any votes wrong yet, but I think thats more a case of being lucky when the music stopped.
Not really put forward any arguments for lynching, but jumped around so much I can't really tie him into anybody at all
I see an argument for the WW spreading confusion role, but not a strong one. Pretty much bang in the middle regarding him, but since I refuse to give out half marks, I will swing to 6/10 suspicion
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Meiz Wrote:(But I doubt that this would actually make Sandover talk, since no one is expecting that from him. If he's a wolf, he has the perfect cover for not explaining anything he does).
I'm dead the moment Roland decides I'm a wolf, though. He did it once and I'm convinced he can get that spin going again if he want to. He's actually hinted at going after me already, so I'm kind of excitet to see whether he goes for it at some point or chickens out with fear of showing everbody how much luck was really involved in catching me last game.
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My suspects at the moment (not in any particular order):
PB. Day 1 can be explained with him being busy. Day 2 is stretching a bit. Day 3, and I feel the same pattern continues. PB posts content only when defending himself. Besides that, I feel like has not done anything for the villages cause. (If he is revealed to be a villager, I will be very disappointed  ). When I add this and my previous arguments ( http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post122209), PB is quite high on my suspects list. And he did make a pointless no-vote on day 1.
Jkaen. Very hard to get a read on. The "problem" is, when someone accuses him of something, he immediately corrects his way accordingly. This is good if he's a villager, and good if he's a wolf. Impossible to say, at least for me... I don't think I'm ready to vote him with the evidence so far. He did switch from Selrahc to Rowain, right before novice sealed the deal. This could easily be seen as trying to save Selrahc.
Sandover. Again for reasons at the end of my previous post ( http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post122209). He is doing everything that is expected on him, so it's impossible to get a read from him. That's perfect for a wolf. I'd like to hear his reasons for day 2 votings, because at the moment I see it as an attempt to save Selrahc.
Zakalwe. Tried to get votes against fire&ice (#568 ), Lewwyn (#575) and uberfish (#662), when people were suspecting Selrahc and he was also gathering votes. He was also discrediting Ichabold's theory against Selrahc (also post #662). He does mention both Selrahc and PB as his suspects, but is not willing to cast a vote against either one. Leaving a way out? At the time I at least saw uberfish as very likely villager, so I don't understand his behavior at all. He is suspecting both PB and Selrahc, but still picks uberfish? He ultimately voted against Rowain, which can again be seen as an attempt to save Selrahc.
You could say my main suspects are PB and Zakalwe.
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Jkaen Wrote:The only one he has really pushed was on novice, who right now is probably looking like the strongest villager.
Novice's identity is far from known, in my mind.
Jkaen Wrote:Hasn't got any votes wrong yet, but I think thats more a case of being lucky when the music stopped.
Hey, I resent that! Identifying MJW was easy and had very little to do with luck. I'm surprised so many just failed to see that.
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Meiz Wrote:Jkaen. He did switch from Selrahc to Rowain, right before novice sealed the deal. This could easily be seen as trying to save Selrahc.
Sorry, I meant to say from PB to Rowain.
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Meiz Wrote:I'd like to hear his reasons for day 2 votings, because at the moment I see it as an attempt to save Selrahc.
Sure, I can do that. After lunch.
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