Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Jkaen]

Gah, I was worried about this, hence why I wanted people to consider alternatives, it has just been far too easy for people to hide behind PB all day today.

Problem is I now see us lynching rowain as a misguided villager, then me as a villager and we lose.

[Serdoa]

Thanks

Ok, what do we do now? I don't like leading anything (just look back at the last days) but I have a nagging suspicion and it is not Rowain. So, before I start with whom I do suspect, let me start with why I don't want to go for Rowain. I think this is important as I was the one asking to lynch him if PB is a villager.

1) Rowain has acted calmly when I stated why I don't believe his theories. He did try to give his reasoning. I think that is villager-like or at least it is how villagers (or for that matter ALL players) SHOULD behave. Thats not to say that he is one - but it took away some of my suspicion for him.

2) Rowain was really on a crusade. Now I have already said that this does not clear him for me from being a wolf. After all this would be a perfect cover if everyone believes he can't be a wolf by doing that. And he certainly has put thought into how to play a wolf, so I feel he would be one to pull a stunt like that. But he now is (or should be) suspected by most anyway, so what he says will be analized thoroughly. So even if he is a wolf, to keep his cover he will have to play for the village now.

Thats why I would like to keep him for now, though in all honesty, if we get enough votes for him, I will probably vote for him too. But I don't want to start it, because I have someone else I suspect:

Roland

Why Roland? Lets look at the past Days:

Day1:

Roland stays for a long time on Lewwyn. Then he switched to Cull. His vote made Lewwyn no longer a valid lynch target because MJW had 7 votes, PB and Lewwyn 5 when zakalwe switched from Lewwyn to PB and Roland switched from Lewwyn to Cull.

Not only did that save Lewwyn from every potential late swing but his vote on Cull was pretty safe to look good (because Cull WAS quiet) without counting. Remember, we had with PB, Cull and MJW only villagers to be voted for so he choose the one which probably would not be voted in the end. He could not know that we would have such a big swing for Cull that he came near lynching a villager - after all it is important to keep your record clean on Day 1 because that normally is all we villagers have to go for on Day 2.

Unfortunately for him in the end we nearly lynched Cull so his vote was questioned, something he had not thought would happen. As a recurring theme he got aggressive against everyone questioning him but in the end had to say something. First he wrote about his thoughts on voting for either Cull or PB:

from both players being rather inactive during Day 1 (each having their own reasons), the tone that some were trying to set seemed to be that pocketbeetle is inherently more valuable than Cull. Being that I believe this is based entirely on actions outside of this thread, and my agreement with... someone (was it Uberfish?) who said it'd be best to judge people on their actions within this thread rather than try to introduce what amounts to meta-gaming (actions in other threads, etc.), it just seemed odd.

So, he states that it is odd to vote for Cull only because we feel that PB will contribute more. Now, later he posted the following on why he voted for Cull

Part of the reason I voted for him was that he was so low on the board, I didn't feel he was in much danger, and I didn't feel like contributing to either the MJW or pocketbeetle votes since I didn't feel either was a 'Wolf. I didn't want to vote for any of the new players, either, and since I felt (at the time) Cull was probably going to continue to be quiet, it was in the best interests of the Village to remove the quietest players so we have the most discussion possible, at least early on.

So, now it was ok to remove the one he thought would be less incentive for the village? Because PB wrote one post in self-defence? Anyway, I think the most revealing sentence is:

I didn't feel he was in much danger, and I didn't feel like contributing to either the MJW or pocketbeetle votes

Yeah. I am sure that this was no lie. Roland voted for a player he was sure nobody could later call him out on. This alone is nothing special of course and would it be the only reason I have, I would not go for him. Another post from him reveals more of his thinking:

I mean, I understand plenty of people thought he was a Villager and lynched him anyway, which gives the 'Wolves the perfect excuse to lynch him, but no matter what it's still going to look bad - and come back to haunt them, maybe not the next day but certainly down the road. I just don't think the 'Wolves, especially one as careful and calculated as Irgy, would be so blatantly obvious. I'd look to people who voted for Cull over people who voted for MJW, in all honesty - or people who voted for neither

Yeah, I would also look for people who voted for Cull...

Now some may ask: Why does he suspect himself, that doesn't help him? Well, thats also a recurring them with Roland. He points suspicion on things he did himself. And it does help because why should you suspect the one questioning everything? I mean he sure tries to help the village, right? Well, he pretty much takes each theory thrown out and tears it apart. I would have no issue with that if he would also put theories of his own forward, like he did in WW2. But what he does and the way he does it (together with Lewwyn) makes only sure that people are not speaking up anymore. I for myself got bullied pretty roughly by him and I think PB was as well not willing to talk anymore on this level. His way is not helping the village, it is damaging it. And it also means that the wolves have free reign to control the voting AND that it obfuscates what happened for us villagers.

Day 2:

Go through Rolands postings. Look who defended Selrahc the most on Day 2. Yeah, Roland. Hitting on Bruindane why he votes for Selrahc, why he switched from PB - several times. Stating that he just hopes the Selrahc-voters are right and that he doesn't believe it. And when he finally, after Selrahc was voted for by so many votes for Selrahc, he states

I'll happily lynch Rowain tomorrow. I only hope I'm right about today. Really does feel like a high risk, high reward scenario going after Selrahc like this. Oh well. Fingers most definitely crossed.

He voted for him in the end. Gaining cover when he could not make sure that Selrahc would be saved and PB lynched. And still trying to sway people away from Selrahc.

For Day 2, I really can only ask you all to go through his posts. I wasn't aware how much he tried to get people to not vote for Selrahc till I have gone through his posts.

Day 3:

Well, who was the driving force behind Rowain to lynch PB? Yeah, Roland and Lewwyn. Who got aggressive like hell because people did not agree with him? Or dared to question him? I am not going to write much more about this day, it is still fresh and I think everyone should be able to see how aggressive he acted.

But I do have a last gem. The one sentence which started my suspicion

No! I enjoy my discussions with scooter too much. Seriously though, when scooter's not playing on the 'Wolf team and spending all his efforts trying to discredit me, he's actually quite a pleasure to converse and hold discourse with. I'm sure he hasn't taken any offense to what I've said, and the reverse is certainly true - despite how things may come across in text.

So, how comes you know that scooter is not playing on Team Werewolf Roland? I see only one possibility: You yourself are on Team Werewolf and you slipped up.

[novice]

Thanks

Thanks what?

I would look for wolves in the wake of Roland and Lewwyn's hurricane of destruction. Your theory requires both to be wolves, seems unlikely.

[Serdoa]

novice, I typed that when Sareln posts that he fixed the tally was the last one. Yes, I need more then an hour for it.

I am not sure why it should be unlikely that both are wolves. But my theory doesn't need both to be wolves anyway. It revolves mainly around

- Roland trying to either sit on the fence and wait or vote in a way that afterwards no one can blame him for it
- Roland being highly aggressive in a way I cannot understand
- Roland slipping up in a sentence

That he switched on Day 1 from Lewwyn to Cull happened in my opinion more for the fact that Lewwyn had enough votes that a late swing could kill him whereas Cull had less votes and was safer if you don't want to be the one killing a villager in the end.

[Rowain]

So good to know that I have been an idiot. Sorry PB and other villagers that I have led you astray.

@novice: My suspicions depended alot on PB beeing a wolf. With him beeing a villager this theory is null and void. I have led the village on one wild goose chase already. I need now more time to think about what happened.

[novice]

Lynching pocketbeetle:



Courtesy of Lewwyn's PBEM14 thread.

[Meiz]

So, how comes you know that scooter is not playing on Team Werewolf Roland? I see only one possibility: You yourself are on Team Werewolf and you slipped up.

Other possibility is that he is a mason. If so, now is about the time to reveal it. It would be a suicide for a wolf to say this, though...

And the third possibility... Well I'm sure Roland has some explanation soon

[Serdoa]

When I look how he fought with scooter then I somehow doubt that they are the masons. Though of course you are right, it is a possibility.

[Jkaen]

Meiz: Night time is never the time to reveal a special role

[Meiz]

Meiz: Night time is never the time to reveal a special role

Heh, true I doubt he would have done that anyway.