Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[scooter]

Now my question is, why was he looking at Scooter's posts? Maybe he was flipping through the thread sequentially, but the thread is getting long, so personally I tend to look up specific people's posts as a starting point. Nobody seems to suspect Scooter at all (fair enough, since he voted for Selrahc), but why was Meiz looking at him, one hour into the night? Well... maybe he was looking for a good night kill? The wolves certainly aren't going to be targeting the current suspects, so if Scooter is innocent, he could have been a good option.

I would like to know the answer to this too. I thought this was odd at the time and I kind of dismissed it, but now that it has me thinking I could die in a few hours... Well I'd really like to know the answer.

[Meiz]

Now my question is, why was he looking at Scooter's posts? Maybe he was flipping through the thread sequentially, but the thread is getting long, so personally I tend to look up specific people's posts as a starting point. Nobody seems to suspect Scooter at all (fair enough, since he voted for Selrahc), but why was Meiz looking at him, one hour into the night? Well... maybe he was looking for a good night kill? The wolves certainly aren't going to be targeting the current suspects, so if Scooter is innocent, he could have been a good option.

Call me crazy, but I started to read the whole thread from beginning once the results were in. Currently at page 37, but I do also view posts from different persons separately.

[zakalwe]

Alright, I'll accept that explanation for now.

On the downside, if both of you are innocent, I guess I just set the wolves up with a perfect night kill: kill Scooter, and then we'll have to lynch Meiz next.

[Roland]

I would like to know the answer to this too. I thought this was odd at the time and I kind of dismissed it, but now that it has me thinking I could die in a few hours... Well I'd really like to know the answer.

Are you referring to me? Honestly, you give me too much credit if you think I can swing the Village towards lynching you. I have nothing to lynch you over! For crying out loud, do people really think I have that much sway here? Honestly, I don't see it, especially this game, and I'm not looking to reprise that role from the last game. That was more than enough spotlight for me, thanks. I don't want to be that responsible for every lynch that goes down - I'm nowhere near confident enough in my ability, and I don't want to deal with all the backlash being directed solely at me. :neenernee

Relax scooter. I honestly, truly mean it when I say I have no suspects. Shocking, I know, but there you go. Not you, not Serdoa, not anyone.

Well, except Sandover. :neenernee For posterity's sake.

[Roland]

Thanks for the chuckles Serdoa.

My conclusion for Day 1 was: I feel you voted for Cull just because he happened to be

a) a valid target which will not be questioned and
b) a target which shouldn't get too much traction

That would not have been true for me for example. You would have had to explain why you voted for me. For Cull? Nobody normally should question you about that, it is sooo obvious. Only that I still do question it.

I think I've freely admit these are half the reasons I voted for him. The other half was a) he was completely quiet, thus not helping the Village, and b) of the two "quiet" targets, I was banking on other people's assessments about pocketbeetle - much as I later contradicted myself about using outside elements. I guess I was drawing a fine line between activity level and other outside elements, which probably explains why it's so fuzzy now. :neenernee Just because I write well doesn't mean I always make a strong point (or remember it, for that matter).

For Day 2: You did not really address the most important point on Day 2. It is not about whom you voted for in the end but how much you tried to defend Selrahc. You state that was because your suspicion grew over the day. And that you got suspicious because he didn't defend himself. But you also state that people started to go against him without anything to go on. For me that means that you got suspicious because he did not defend against baseless accusations.

Maybe because I don't see what you're talking about? Here's the ONLY "defense" post I can see about Selrahc:

Yes, Selrahc is acting exactly the same as he did when I fingered him in WW2. 'Course, I don't think that proves anything except that he's a hot-head. If he's a 'Wolf, he hasn't done anything to provoke the thought, in my opinion. I'd rather he lived for awhile. His experience could prove quite useful if he's a Villager, and it's a gamble I'm willing to take at this point.

All I was saying was it was flimsy evidence at the time, in large part because I got so much criticism in the last game for thinking along the same lines (just look at pocketbeetle in this game if you want to know what I'm talking about). In short: right conclusion, wrong reasons.

My very next post, I believe, or at least the next one concerning Selrahc, was this:

I suppose I should tack on that, out of the top 3 lynch candidates, I suspect pocketbeetle and Selrahc. Neither have done much of anything in the way of a convincing defense, despite how I understand Selrahc's irritation at the position he's in. It's not helping his case that it's eerily similar to WW2 (minus the Owl scry, of course), but I'm trying not to meta here, so I'm not convinced he's a 'Wolf - just that he's suspicious to me. As for pocketbeetle, I just flat-out don't trust him, and I have yet to find anything he's posted that contributes to the Village or even to his own defense. Maybe he's low on time - that's understandable - but the time he's spent here he's done nothing with, and I'm not comfortable with that, even if he is a Villager.

So there you go: I state my suspicion of Selrahc, and that it's building. Notice something else? I was even talking about pocketbeetle. So, yes, I had my suspicions about him, although I admit I probably come across as more confident than I actually am half the time.

Roland, I don't want that you feel I again try to put words in your mouth. I really just don't understand your thought process here. And for me that means that someone is either a villager with blinders (what doesn't suit in this case all that well because you did defend Selrahc because the accusations were so bad) or a wolf trying to mislead others.

To be fair, I don't understand your thought process here. Let's chalk it up to language barriers, shall we? No sense starting another flame war - I'm still burnt out from the last one. If you can elaborate as to just how and where I defended Selrahc so vehemently, I'd be more than happy to oblige in answering your accusation, but until then, I'm stumped. I just don't see where you're coming from with this. The only thing I can say is what I said at the time: about the only thing I had on Selrahc was his peculiar behavior in the face of accusation (it STILL strikes me as odd). It was weak, but the more it went on the more confident I felt - mostly based on last game. I tried this same theory with pocketbeetle. I don't need to tell you how well that turned out. So, you can understand my apprehension when I come up with ANY theory at this point, can't you, especially with several people stating I "convince myself"? (What does that even mean, by the way? I mean, the way you say it, don't we ALL convince ourselves?)

Day 3: Not much to add here.

As for your comment: You know you state that you are sure that scooter is a villager and wrote it from this standpoint. But then only 2 lines below you state that because scooter also was wondering about this sentence you are now considering if he is not a villager. Again, I might just not understand you very well but for me sentences like those don't make sense. You make your defence and in the same second you already tear it apart yourself.

Uh, easy. At the time, I thought he was a Villager. Not certain, obviously, any more than I'm certain you're a Villager, but reasonably enough so. That he would take such a careless statement (really, I put zero thought into it, and I think that shows) as some huge slip-up makes me question his judgment considerably. Perhaps questioning whether he's a Villager based solely on that statement is unfair, but it was mostly intended as a return jab. If I honestly thought scooter was a 'Wolf I would post something to that effect. I don't, although that doesn't mean I'm not concerned I could be wrong (it's a constant worry, what can I say).

General remark: If I seem to be highly aggressive or someone feels I am trying to twist their words, talk with me about it. I just am writing the best I can and that means that I probably often will come across as aggressive simply because I am blunt in the way I phrase sentences or am maybe not understanding what someone wrote and therefore put it in my words to see if that was what was meant. That obviously happens more often with you Roland simply because you write with more "fillers" then others do and so I have to question stuff more often to understand it.

Duly noted. For myself, I AM aggressive, at times. I'm also analytical and blunt, sardonic, and taciturn. I probably come off across the net as a very arrogant, confident jerk half the time, but I assure you it's more bluster than brawn, so try not to take it to heart. If I come across as attacking, there's a 50% chance I mean it light-heartedly, not aggressively. Believe me, I think I'm pretty clear cut when I'm angry - I tend to be more of an asshole. Seriously though, if anyone's put off by me or my words let me know, and I'll try to tone it down, but it's just how I am. I'm NOT overly confident - I second guess my every move. I appear critical because I pick apart everything - that's just how my brain works, although yes I can occasionally be prone to blinders when it comes to myself (Meiz in WW2, for example). I take an aggressive stance when I'm accused because that's my nature - I don't back down, unless it's to avoid meaningless confrontation (I need to work on this part, I know). None of it should be taken personally. I'm a very easygoing individual. I just happen to also be extremely intense and passionate, which leads me to come across far more strongly than I intend or realize most of the time. Thus my fervent offenses and defenses, regarding myself and others. When I invest myself, I do it wholly.

Anyway, enough sidetracked babble. Back to the game at hand.

Right now I'm skeptical of anyone who is convinced of anything.

I feel the same, mostly because I've completely lost faith in any theories I had. :neenernee 'Course, I'm keeping an open mind to anyone else's (at least as open as usual for me).

I kind of get the same feeling; Roland is not playing with his blinders on here; he has made plenty of good, objective arguments in my mind. Yet he somehow manages to come off as inconclusive, and at times I get the feeling that he is acting against his better judgment, as if he knows he's doing the wrong thing. Additionally, I don't think anyone hedges his bets as much as Roland does, but then again, that is his style, and it may just be founded in a genuine fear of being wrong. This is backed up by his phenomenal capacity for insisting he was right, in hindsight.

Ignoring the hindsight barb, if you second guessed your every move, and had the black cloud that was the last game hanging over your head in not only your own mind, but everyone else's, wouldn't you fear being wrong? Seriously, put yourself in my shoes for a minute. The last game garnered me a great deal of attention (which, in person, would shut me down because I'm still an introvert at heart). It also garnered me a tremendous deal of criticism, including for things I felt proud of (most notably my posting style). Imagine, if you will, you found a 'Wolf, convinced the Village of it, and then at the end of it was criticized for posting too much, too long, to the point that the Lurkers wanted you hung just so they didn't have to listen to you ("reading his posts is too much like work"). How would that make you feel? I'll admit it hurt, as I took pride in crafting my posts, but aside from that it truly made me attempt to change how I approached this game. You also have to remember that when this game was announced I had ZERO intentions of joining. My decision to sign up was literally made in the last hour before closing, on a whim - I felt I should give it a shot, rather than let that last experience be my only one. I was hesitant, full of trepidation, you might say, but I bit the bullet and signed on. Ultimately, thus far I'm glad I did, but that doesn't change the fact that it was difficult to join, and moreso to remain.

I hedge my bets because most of the time, in this game, I've been quite unsure of myself (in part because of all the preexisting elements). Moreover, whenever I start to feel even remotely sure of myself, at least one person has to pipe up and shoot me down, dismissively, with statements like "He has blinders on," "He convinces himself," etc. I personally feel like I have the most criticism leveled against me out of anyone. Perhaps that's deserved, perhaps not, but that's how I feel. Even Lewwyn, who as you put it does sometimes come across as being proud of being wrong, takes less criticism than I do. Maybe it's just that he shrugs it off so well, though? I don't know. At any rate, the bottom line is that I have virtually no confidence in any decision I've made, and any attempt to gain any is met with derision. I'm not trying to be "emo", as Serdoa put it earlier, just explaining how I see things. As such, I'm going to hedge my bets. I'm going to appear uncertain. I'm probably going to appear as though I'm going against my better judgment, and in fact sometimes I may - but when I don't see any other choice, what choice do I have? Like with pocketbeetle: I knew the evidence against him was weak, just as was with Selrahc, but the latter worked out, so I felt I should take a shot on the former. Now, because of that, half a dozen people are convinced I'm a 'Wolf - more so than any other person! Can you understand how that would shatter someone's confidence, knowing that ONE wrong move could instantly turn you from safe, trusted Villager to guaranteed 'Wolf?

Just now you say most don't want to listen to PBs defense, but I was WAITING for him to respond at all. You continually make it sound like people voting for PB are blind, but he did such a poor job defending himself there was no way to see! The only post he made that even came close to a defense was in the last hour, but its still didn't directly address the concerns I had raised. It gave me pause though! I even said so, but there were no other better options. The only other options were me and MNG. I'm a villager and I don't suspect MNG.

Basically echoing Lewwyn's thoughts here. Had pocketbeetle posted his defense earlier, I would have moved my vote off (probably). I even said as much. When he posted it, though, the stage was set essentially, and any defense he mounted would look suspicious (ala Sandover's Baner claim). It did give me pause, but as Lewwyn put it, where was I suppose to move to? No Vote? That would look cowardly, and then I'd get criticized for caving on my convictions. Or, hell, I'd probably be accused of being a 'Wolf trying to back out of lynching a known Villager as cover. I wouldn't put it past anyone.

You were possessed last game so I told myself that was part of his role. New game, new slate, but I'm seeing the same attitude and the same style. It's funny I don't even know if I can suspect you.

This. Sometimes you truly do make me wonder which side you're on, because you do come across EXACTLY as you did last game - when you clearly weren't on the Villager's side (it was pretty obvious at certain points in the last game, but mostly towards the end). Your style, to me, hasn't changed a bit. Maybe that's a language barrier issue, too. I don't know. It does strike me as very unusual, though - and yet I can't convince myself to vote for you because your accusations strike me entirely as coming from a Villager. I'm perplexed a bit over this conundrum, but so far I've been content to label you as "probable Villager" and let it lie. It's just odd, and I felt it bore mentioning. Sorry if that sounds accusatory, as it's not meant to be. I'm just honestly curious, and puzzled, over the whole thing.

On this note: I still think Mr. Nice Guy is a good candidate in this category.

Could someone PLEASE explain to me why this is so? Several people have made this statement, and I'm honestly not sure why, so clearly I'm missing something important. I'm not attacking anyone - I just feel like I've missed something crucial, totally and completely, and thus I'm blind to whatever it is other people are seeing plain as day. As I've said, I have no suspects at this point, so color me open-minded.

[Jkaen]

My thoughts on MNG are post #930

[Meiz]

Alright, I'll accept that explanation for now.

On the downside, if both of you are innocent, I guess I just set the wolves up with a perfect night kill: kill Scooter, and then we'll have to lynch Meiz next.

I'm completely loss on my suspects at the moment, and I have been hoping that someone soon posts a convincing theory. I have to say, based on the accusation against me, it doesn't look too good at the moment... :neenernee

[novice]

Here are my reasons to vote MNG, cobbled together in two minutes in an attempt to save pocketbeetle.

My reasons to vote MNG.

Day 1 result:
8v: MJW(Serdoa, Selrahc, Bobchillingworth, Mr Nice Guy, Cull, Jkaen, Irgy, Lewwyn)
7v: Cull(Meiz, Roland, Uberfish, Sandover, Mardoc, Scooter, Novice )
3v: Pocketbeetle (Rowain, Bruindane, Zakalwe )
3v: Lewwyn ( Ichabod, MJW,fire & ice)
1v: novice (Pocketbeetle)
1v: sandover ( Gold Ergo Sum)

Day 2 result:
9v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish, Irgy, Bruindane, Gold ergo sum, scooter, Roland, novice, sandover )
6v: Rowain (Pocketbeetle, Meiz, Selrahc, zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen )
5v: Pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull )
1v: novice ( Mr Nice Guy )

Mr. Nice Guy has kept his head down and was left in the dust when the bandwagon swung away from me on day 2. He placed a safe vote on MJW on day 1.

So this, and gut feeling of course.

[novice]

Okay, remaining players, number of posts in parenthesis:

Lewwyn (130)
Roland (118 )
Rowain (107)
novice (82)
Jkaen (77)
Meiz (70)
Bruindane (70)
zakalwe (55)
scooter (55)
Irgy (50)
Ichabod (47)
Serdoa (45)
Sandover (36)
fire&ice (35)
Mardoc (27)
Mr. Nice Guy (26)
Gold Ergo Sum (25)

Everybody who's posted a lot come across as villagers, so good job wolves. I doubt they would all risk keeping quiet, so I'm guessing one of the active players is a wolf.

Possible active wolf:
Rowain, Zakalwe, scooter

Misguided villagers:
Lewwyn, Roland, novice

Probable villagers:
JKaen, Bruindane, Serdoa, Ichabod

Possible wolves:
MNG, Meiz, Irgy, Sandover, fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

I think I'll go with MNG, Rowain, Mardoc and GES for now.

[zakalwe]

Ignoring the hindsight barb, if you second guessed your every move, and had the black cloud that was the last game hanging over your head in not only your own mind, but everyone else's, wouldn't you fear being wrong? Seriously, put yourself in my shoes for a minute. The last game garnered me a great deal of attention (which, in person, would shut me down because I'm still an introvert at heart). It also garnered me a tremendous deal of criticism, including for things I felt proud of (most notably my posting style). Imagine, if you will, you found a 'Wolf, convinced the Village of it, and then at the end of it was criticized for posting too much, too long, to the point that the Lurkers wanted you hung just so they didn't have to listen to you ("reading his posts is too much like work"). How would that make you feel? I'll admit it hurt, as I took pride in crafting my posts, but aside from that it truly made me attempt to change how I approached this game. You also have to remember that when this game was announced I had ZERO intentions of joining. My decision to sign up was literally made in the last hour before closing, on a whim - I felt I should give it a shot, rather than let that last experience be my only one. I was hesitant, full of trepidation, you might say, but I bit the bullet and signed on. Ultimately, thus far I'm glad I did, but that doesn't change the fact that it was difficult to join, and moreso to remain.

I hedge my bets because most of the time, in this game, I've been quite unsure of myself (in part because of all the preexisting elements). Moreover, whenever I start to feel even remotely sure of myself, at least one person has to pipe up and shoot me down, dismissively, with statements like "He has blinders on," "He convinces himself," etc. I personally feel like I have the most criticism leveled against me out of anyone. Perhaps that's deserved, perhaps not, but that's how I feel. Even Lewwyn, who as you put it does sometimes come across as being proud of being wrong, takes less criticism than I do. Maybe it's just that he shrugs it off so well, though? I don't know. At any rate, the bottom line is that I have virtually no confidence in any decision I've made, and any attempt to gain any is met with derision. I'm not trying to be "emo", as Serdoa put it earlier, just explaining how I see things. As such, I'm going to hedge my bets. I'm going to appear uncertain. I'm probably going to appear as though I'm going against my better judgment, and in fact sometimes I may - but when I don't see any other choice, what choice do I have? Like with pocketbeetle: I knew the evidence against him was weak, just as was with Selrahc, but the latter worked out, so I felt I should take a shot on the former. Now, because of that, half a dozen people are convinced I'm a 'Wolf - more so than any other person! Can you understand how that would shatter someone's confidence, knowing that ONE wrong move could instantly turn you from safe, trusted Villager to guaranteed 'Wolf?

I kind of got the blame for losing WW1 for the village (even though we didn't actually lose), so I think I can relate a little to this. What I'm trying to envision is how you'd act if you drew a wolf role in this game. Part of me says it should be obvious if you were a wolf, because you'd never be able to keep up an act like this, but it's hard to be sure. You're lucky you have one wolf kill under your belt already though; it shouldn't be too hard to mount a defense, unless you make some kind of fatal slip.

Regarding Mr. Nice Guy, my suspicions towards him are based on his voting record, and for generally laying low. Simply put, he hasn't convinced me of his innocence yet. It's not much, but it's the best I've got so far.