Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Meiz]

After PB was killed and revealed as a villager, my theories came crashing down. So I thought I would try to keep it simple today. Pick people who voted against known villager on day 1 and did not vote a wolf on day 2. For day 3, we only know that PB is innocent, so I simply dropped the votes from that day. No idea how to analyze them really...

Day 1:
8v: MJW(Serdoa, Selrahc, Bobchillingworth, Mr Nice Guy, Cull, Jkaen, Irgy, Lewwyn)
7v: Cull(Meiz, Roland, Uberfish, Sandover, Mardoc, Scooter, Novice )
3v: Pocketbeetle (Rowain, Bruindane, Zakalwe )

3v: Lewwyn ( Ichabod, MJW,fire & ice)
1v: novice (Pocketbeetle)
1v: sandover ( Gold Ergo Sum)

Day 2:
9v: Selrahc (Ichabod, uberfish, Irgy, Bruindane, Gold ergo sum, scooter, Roland, novice, sandover)

6v: Rowain (Pocketbeetle, Meiz, Selrahc, zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen)
5v: Pocketbeetle (Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull)
1v: novice (Mr Nice Guy)

So we are left with: Meiz, Serdoa, Mr. Nice Guy, Jkaen, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Rowain, Zakalwe. Shockingly I'm going to count myself out of the list.

Jkaen and Zakalwe are the names I've had most suspicions before, so for me personally they stand out from the list.

This should be a simple day for me, right?

...except that there is this one name I can't get out of my head

Novice

Shooting myself in the leg, eh?

I (and obviously many others) see him as a very smart player, and his current voting record underlines that fact quite well (almost single handedly killed a wolf, and defended a villager on day 3). But he never seems to reveal his hand, or present any _new_ theories. He seldom gives any explanations for his actions, and generally seems to ride from bandwagon to another. Something that I've been accused of more than once.

So how has novice voted? I'm going to ignore day 1, since it was a crapshoot and we had three villagers on the chopping block. So day 1 votes sadly don't tell much about possible wolves. His votes for day 2:

Against Mardoc (Zakalwe's theory), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=431
Against Sehlrac (Uberfish's and Ichabolds theory), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=563
Against Rowain (PB's theory), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=675
The famous killing blow for Selrahc, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=741

This move is what makes probably everyone see novice in the villager camp. The "problem" is, that Sehlrac was heavily under suspicion already, so he could have lived for day 2, but he was still pretty much a lost cause. I think if any, this is the perfect time for a wolf sacrifice to gain credit. Basically novice has now two "wolf would never do that!" cards on his belt, other being the Mayor's title. In theory he should be cleared of all possible suspicions, yet here I am :neenernee

Day 3 rises and the pattern continues:

Back to Rowain (PB's theory), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=868
Against Mr. Nice Guy (Jkaen's theory), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1061

Finally we get some explanation for his vote, but keeping it simple, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1100

As an exception, he did explain his vote against Lewwyn, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=963

But Lewwyn had been under suspicion, so this is hardly any original idea.

Day 3 is over and he finally opens up a bit, stating his suspects, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1229

Keeping it simple, no reasons at all... . People are appearing on his innocent and guilty lists, but I still have no idea why

I add all this to my previous paranoia:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post121598
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post121752
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post121765
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post121796

So which one is it? Excellent villager, who doesn't want to reveal his cards to the wolves? Or a wolf playing a low-risk game with votes, but avoiding accusations with two key elements, wolf kill and the mayor position?

I honestly don't know... I don't expect to get any bandwagon against novice, and I'm not sure at all on this. But am I really the only one who finds his behavior a bit odd? It would definitely help the village if he would open up a bit.

I will try to find a new theory soon, for all of your amusement.

Have a good laugh

[novice]

Meiz, I am trying to launch some theories as I sense the village could use some fresh ideas. Maybe you cross posted with last page?

Also, you forgot the third thing a wolf would not do: Throw a last minute, presumed to be fatal, vote on villager Cull, to save villager MJW.

[Meiz]

Zakalwe

If he were a villager he would have been eaten.

And stating that Zakalwe fits this. Umm... yeah... I can't read your reasoning at all.

Also, you forgot the third thing a wolf would not do: Throw a last minute, presumed to be fatal, vote on villager Cull, to save villager MJW.

A wolf would never do that!!!

[novice]

And sandover does not fit it? Or for example you?

My feeling is sandover was more likely than zakalwe to be lynched, and I'm too likely to be baner protected (ironically, given Meiz' theory above.)

[novice]

And stating that Zakalwe fits this. Umm... yeah... I can't read your reasoning at all.

Which part is stupid or unclear?

A wolf would never do that!!!

that's what I'm saying, what are you saying?

[Rowain]

Also, you forgot the third thing a wolf would not do: Throw a last minute, presumed to be fatal, vote on villager Cull, to save villager MJW.

Except that it was not and Lewwyns switch saved you from having to do a decision between 2 villagers .
Sacrificing Selrahc to get 1 wolf into the asured villager status would also be a very clever play.
The same with all the 'strange comments'.

But no I'm not on another crusade right now. Just throwing around some ideas .


Keeping my vote on Lewwyn so that zakalwe doesn't feel so lonely near the gallows

[Roland]

My feeling is sandover was more likely than zakalwe to be lynched, and I'm too likely to be baner protected (ironically, given Meiz' theory above.)

My feeling is just the opposite. I can think of several people who've bandied zakalwe's name around in the last 2 days, but hardly any who've mentioned Sandover, least of all with any real suspicion. It makes far more sense to me for them to have killed Sandover over zakalwe. He was, after all, one of the quietest players in the game (both in content and quantity). Minimal suspicion, minimal exposure - perfect Baner target, IMHO. That's who they're fishing for at this point - the Baner. They got the Seer, so the only one they have to worry about is the Baner. The Masons can't do anything, and the Fool is useless.

[Meiz]

Which part is stupid or unclear?

Zakalwe was heavily under suspicion on day 3, and is now gathering votes (well before your post). Why would the wolves want to eat him? There's several better candinates that come to my mind.

[Rowain]

My feeling is sandover was more likely than zakalwe to be lynched, and I'm too likely to be baner protected (ironically, given Meiz' theory above.)

I agree with the second part but doubt the first.
Don't take me wrong I have no problem lynching zakalwe I just find the reasoning abit more fitting to come from me than from you .

[zakalwe]

Zakalwe

If he were a villager he would have been eaten.

*searches in vain for a blushing smiley*

Very flattering. I'm sure Mr. Nice Guy will be along shortly with even more praise.

Not sure where you think I acquired the "skilled player" reputation though; don't you remember your "walk towards the light" comment in the WW1 lurker thread? But by all means, feel free to elaborate. (Yes, I am just fishing for more praise now.)

On a more serious note, not everybody can play the part of an "active wolf". So in my opinion, assuming there must be a certain number of active wolves is essentially just as arbitrary as Irgy's middle-tier-post-count method. Eventually, an active wolf will contradict himself one time too many, or lose track of who he is supposed to be suspecting or trusting; essentially, he will either slip up or clam up. So for now, I think the presumed active wolves should stick together and lynch some of the presumed quiet wolves.

Mr. Nice Guy or fire&ice would fit the bill.