Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[novice]

You all have convinced me that Sandover was more trusted than I initially thought. He did kill Selrahc, after all. So I guess he was a better night kill target than Zakalwe.

I think I'll switch to MNG then.

[Irgy]

Farewell Sandover.

On the plus side, I'm living longer than I usually do. Normally I get eaten fairly early, for reasons I've never really figured out.

I'm not sure why I didn't notice this earlier; probably because I was engaged in a "rhyming duel" with Novice at the time. By the time I next got caught up you had moved on to other suspects. So did this theory hinge on Pocketbeetle being a wolf, or do you still suspect Meiz? Because I still think it sounds like a decent case. I'll definitely add him to my list of people I'll consider lynching, along with MNG and fire&ice.

The core of my case was that he was a wagon-starter. The trouble with that is that it appears to be his normal play. He got voted off (as a villager) in WW2 doing the same sort of thing, so I don't want to repeat the mistake. It doesn't clear him as such, but it does still remove the case against him leaving us back where we started.

Probable villagers:
JKaen, Bruindane, Serdoa, Ichabod

Possible wolves:
MNG, Meiz, Irgy, Sandover, fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

Sorry, novice, what's your reasoning behind these two categories? Is it just intuition?

Okay, here's some anti-village advice, so wolves, look away.

When selecting a night kill:
* Pick a skilled player
* Pick someone who's not too suspected of being a wolf, as you would be doing the villagers' job easier
* Don't pick someone who's practically a confirmed villager either, as they could be baner protected.

Zakalwe fits the bill, just as Bob did on night 1 and Uberfish did on night 2.

Someone else said it already, but Zakalwe has been accused and voted for a fair bit, so I don't really think he fits this description well at all.


It looks like we have our two main candidates for the day. I have nothing at the moment, so I'll go with the flow. I can't remember a single accusation on Zakalwe that really convinced me, while Mr Nice Guy just doesn't seem as active as he might be.

Interested to see how this all plays out anyway.

[novice]

Probable villagers:
JKaen, Bruindane, Serdoa, Ichabod

Possible wolves:
MNG, Meiz, Irgy, Sandover, fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

Sorry, novice, what's your reasoning behind these two categories? Is it just intuition?

I guess you can call it that. Mainly I'm picking up on little things that prove nothing by themselves.

Last time I explained this I used pocketbeetle as an example, and said he was innocent based on him quickly supporting me regarding my late Cull vote, potentially clearing up suspicion and confusion, something that is not in the wolves' interest.

I don't keep a list of things like this, so when forced to explain I often have to put it down to gut instinct. Which I suppose is really what gut instinct is about - your subconscious picking up on little tells like this.

That reminds me that you really belong in the probable villagers category. Your observation that Roland would be changed by reading the WW2 lurker thread helped lift suspicion from Roland, who is obviously innocent in my eyes, and if you were a wolf there was no need for you to make that observation. It's not like someone else would have made the observation if you had kept quiet.

Ichabod - not so much intuition as the simple fact that he nominated Selrahc.

Bruindane - yeah I know I had a reason, can't remember right now. His "I'm the real village idiot" and his mystifying shortest ever crusade against me are part of the reason, but there was more too. Well FWIW he did vote for Selrahc. Also, and this applies to both Bruindane and Meiz - if you're a wolf trying to get a lynch going for a villager, choosing me as your target is maybe an odd choice? I'm fairly trusted after all.

Serdoa - fought to defend pocketbeetle with the same apparent frustration that I felt. Risky and needless thing to try and fake.

JKaen - if I were a wolf I wouldn't bother to analyse the entire freaking thread to be seen as contributing. And his annoyance at the village's lack of appreciation seemed genuine.

So Meiz, are you happy with the new and sharing Novice?

Here's my revised list based on the reasoning above:

Probable villagers:
JKaen, Bruindane, Serdoa, Ichabod, Meiz, Irgy

Possible wolves:
MNG, [strike]Sandover[/strike], fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

Oh look, only four names left... Plus the active wolf (Zakalwe, Rowain or scooter). My favourite here is scooter - he hasn't really introduced many fresh thoughts, just been acting as a neutral mediator.

[zakalwe]

I suspect Zakalwe a little bit. What discredited my theory was day 1, when he was the first to vote for Lewwyn, which turned into a bandwagon... I don't think wolves would start a lynch train on day 1, too risky, in my opinion.

But reading the first pages again, I realized that when Zakalwe started to write his post voting for Lewwyn, Sandover had already voted to lynch Lewwyn. But before Zakalwe finished his writing, Sandover changed his vote. So, Zakalwe wasn't starting the bandwagon, he was only giving it some strenght.

Ichabod, I don't understand this argument. A wolf wouldn't start a bandwagon on day 1? How would he know it was a bandwagon if he's placing the first vote? And how does it relate to me placing what I thought would be the third vote on Lewwyn (but turned out to be the second because of cross-posting?). Please educate me.*

For reference, this was back in post 119 - MJW and fire&ice were in the lead with 6 and 4 votes, and I wanted a third candidate up there.

*pun intended

[Ichabod]

Ichabod, I don't understand this argument. A wolf wouldn't start a bandwagon on day 1? How would he know it was a bandwagon if he's placing the first vote? And how does it relate to me placing what I thought would be the third vote on Lewwyn (but turned out to be the second because of cross-posting?). Please educate me.*

For reference, this was back in post 119 - MJW and fire&ice were in the lead with 6 and 4 votes, and I wanted a third candidate up there.

*pun intended

Sorry, bad choice of words in my part.

What I meant to say is that I suspected you ever since uberfish last words told us to give you a more detailed look.

But, reading the thread again (not all the thread, since I don't have much free time right now) I found your Lewwyn vote on day 1. Since it was the first vote for Lewwyn, I thought that it wasn't a wolfish move, because I think wolves wouldn't want to place the "first votes" on day 1 (that's what I meant by starting bandwagons: if you are the first person to vote for someone and he ended up being a villager after the lynch, you'll end up looking suspicious. So I don't think wolves would do that, they'd probably be the ones voting after the initial vote has been made by a villager, so that they can blame him for the bad lynch).

So, after I found out, by reading the thread once again, that when you voted for Lewwyn there was already a vote placed for Sandover on him, the thing that made you look less suspicious dissapeared.

Hope I made myself clear this time.

[Rowain]

Probable villagers:
JKaen, Bruindane, Serdoa, Ichabod, Meiz, Irgy

Possible wolves:
MNG, [strike]Sandover[/strike], fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

Oh look, only four names left... Plus the active wolf (Zakalwe, Rowain or scooter). My favourite here is scooter - he hasn't really introduced many fresh thoughts, just been acting as a neutral mediator.

If I understand you right you think that 3 wolves are in the possible wolves list and 1 in the active wolf list?

[zakalwe]

@Ichabod: thanks for the clarification.

I think it is very hard to draw conclusions based on day 1 voting given that all the lynch candidates turned out to be innocent. The only person that ever was in the running, and whose role remains unknown, is in fact Lewwyn. So I'm not saying he's a wolf, but if you do want to speculate, I don't think the fact that I put Lewwyn in the running should look very suspicious. Unless fire&ice is a wolf... that might incriminate me, considering that vote. I'd be happy to investigate that theory further, as long as we lynch fire&ice first.

[Irgy]

Day 1 is pretty close to being completely useless and should just about be removed from consideration entirely at this stage. Other than psycho-analysing people's play styles and motivations of course. All of the top candidates were villagers, so the wolves could happily play their natural village game without any concerns. They'd have to be pretty stupid to have left a trail on day 1.

[Mardoc]

Possible wolves:
MNG, [strike]Sandover[/strike], fire&ice, Mardoc, GES

Oh look, only four names left... Plus the active wolf (Zakalwe, Rowain or scooter). My favourite here is scooter - he hasn't really introduced many fresh thoughts, just been acting as a neutral mediator.

Looks like I need to rehabilitate myself, then. I've played badly so far, but I'm no wolf. That said, I do find your other targets suspicious, so it's a dispiriting category to find myself in.

If you're going based on inadvertent tells and unconscious slips, then I guess the only thing I can do is to start commenting on all sorts of things and trust my inner villager to shine through eventually.

[Ichabod]

I have been reading the thread again and I'm seeing that Zakalwe is not that good of a target, at least for now.

So, no vote.