Posts: 1,160
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2010
Jkaen Wrote:My thoughts on MNG are post #930
How have your thoughts about me changed since then? Thanks to a more friendly work schedule, I have posted a lot more since post #930, including a lot more content, since then. So obviously you have a bit more to go on in either seeing me as a wolf or seeing me as innocent. Hopefully my posts since then have shown you some of my innocence. But I don't blame you if they don't, because I'm voting for you.
Oh, and because you knew I was innocent when you found out that I wasn't one of your packmates :neenernee
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
Lynch:
5v: Mr. Nice Guy ( zakalwe, Mardoc, Jkaen, novice, Irgy )
3v: zakalwe ( Lewwyn, Meiz, scooter )
1v: Lewwyn ( Rowain )
1v: Serdoa ( Ichabod )
1v: Jkaen ( Mr. Nice Guy )
Not Voting:
Bruindane, fire&ice, Gold Ergo Sum, Irgy, Roland, Serdoa
Posts: 1,160
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2010
Mardoc Wrote:Well, that's what Selrahc did with my theory. And Mr. Nice Guy. Rowain refused to attack it, but I don't think he followed me in any way, shape, or form, except for a mutual wrong suspicion of Pocketbeetle. I can see the case on Zakalwe, a bit, but he didn't agree with me, so Mr. Nice Guy
I love the irony that I'm now a top suspect for you because I agreed with you. The trouble is it makes sense to suspect people who agreed with you.
Looking back on it, the post made sense at the time, and I have to say that without hindsight's help I would still agree with it if I was presented with it again today. What convinced me was that you had found a pattern of people working together in a way that made them look suspicious. I agreed with your analysis and figured the best person to go for would be Novice. As mayor, if he's a wolf he's more dangerous to us than any other wolf, and should be the first to go. I still think that, although my suspicion against him has waned.
So I've done what I can to address Mardoc's and JKaen's suspicions of me. Anyone else that I can specifically address? If I've missed something already posted, don't be afraid to point me to it so I can address it. I'd like, by the end of Day 4, to either be a consensus villager or to be a hung villager*, so I intend to play this day pretty aggressively.
*You can say I have a "Death Wish" but not a death wish. I am the only one in the village that knows that JKaen's suspect list has as many holes at the top as I mentioned before, because I'm the only one who knows I'm innocent. I hope to survive the day, and if I do, I hope I won't be the only one to believe it  *
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
Posts: 748
Threads: 6
Joined: Dec 2010
Roland: I'm still on your not-voting list in the tally, but you also have me correctly listed as voting for Mr Nice Guy.
Posts: 15,358
Threads: 112
Joined: Apr 2007
Roland Wrote:I tend to agree. Scooter, in my humble opinion, has done a good job of attempting to forward ideas and theories, and discuss those already present. Having said that, scooter, you were a 'Wolf in WW2. What do you feel about the odds that no 'Wolf voted for Selrahc? How many 'Wolves do you think voted to lynch Selrahc?
Bad odds. I can practically guarantee at least one wolf voted for Selrahc, that is, if the wolves are remotely competent. Selrahc was not the void-wolf, so he was totally dispensable. The key though is to look at when people voted. Generally speaking, if there are multiple wolves voting for Selrahc, you'll find them to have either voted on Selrahc early (because it's suspicious to swap away from him late), or to have piled on at the end. It's relatively unusual for a wolf to cast a deciding vote on a wolf when it's not particularly necessary, however it can happen. For example, in WW2, Selrahc cast what was more or less the deciding vote on Sandover on Day 1. Why though? There was two reasons:
1. Honestly, we didn't talk it through and decide if we wanted to sacrifice Sandover. That's why you saw Selrahc going Sandover at the buzzer and uberfish going Sareln at the buzzer. It was all independent, so there was some mild confusion on if we wanted to save him or kill him. The bigger reason, however:
2. Selrahc really needed credibility. Remember - he was the devil AND the mayor, which was something we all hated. Therefore it was most important for people to trust him. His deciding vote on Sandover was great, because it gave him a better chance of being ignored by the seer, at least temporarily.
It's not unheard of for a wolf to cast the deciding vote, but generally there has to be a good reason. Selrahc was certainly dispensable, but it's far more likely to find wolves who voted early and couldn't change, or wolves who piled on when it was a foregone conclusion. The only person who really "piled on" was Sandover, and since we know he's innocent, that's not the place to look. I will eat Roland's wooden block for him if there turn out to be no wolves on Selrahc though, because generally speaking, they'll try to spread out their votes. The biggest werewolf fear is to die and bring several other WW's done with you, so that's why you'll always see 1 or 2 on a vote like that, but rarely will you see none or all of them.
Short Version: You will absolutely find wolves in the Selrahc vote, but the ratio to villagers will be about average. In general though, there is a higher chance that a Selrahc villager is a wolf if he voted early on (when he figured Selrahc could easily talk himself off the gallows), but it was too suspicious for him to swap. This isn't incredibly useful information, but it can be useful when crossed with other evidence. For instance, if you find 2 Selrahc voters suspicious, the guy who voted Selrahc second is more likely to be a wolf than the guy who cast a vote at a key moment late in the day.
Roland Wrote:Further, how many 'Wolves do you think voted to lynch pocketbeetle, knowing full well it would blow up in our faces?
Probably a few... Again, you won't find all or none... But it's pretty easy for a wolf to hide in the PB vote because so many people were gung-ho about killing him. Honestly, it somewhat depends on if the other options were guilty or not. If Lewwyn is also innocent, it's more likely that the wolves just spread themselves evenly between PB and Lewwyn, with probably one or two randomly voting on a third party. If Lewwyn is guilty, then the PB voters look a bit more suspicious.
One Final Note: I am fully aware that a thing or two that I wrote could come across as "self serving" in way - especially the comment that it's less likely that a wolf cast a key deciding vote on Selrahc (myself and novice are in that group, for example). Rowain and Irgy can probably confirm what I'm saying is true though, as this entire post is pretty much based on my experiences from being involved in every email (there was lots of them - everything was reply-all group emails) behind the scenes from last game... If I've said something that seems off, hopefully they will correct me.
Posts: 748
Threads: 6
Joined: Dec 2010
scooter Wrote:If I've said something that seems off, hopefully they will correct me.
No, it all sounds about right, I'd agree with it. Including the bits that are analysis.
I'd only add though the as far as Sandover went in WW2, by the end of the day his baner claim was so ridiculous that I know I for one couldn't follow a "play villager strategy" without voting for him, and I suspect Selrahc was the same. When Selrahc voted for Sandover, it was after MJW's metagaming with the baner role keywords. Sandover had just confessed to not to having received the baner pm that was then posted by f&i, at which point Sandover's defense made no sense at all. If I wasn't voting for him already I'd have switched at that point myself too. Whatever side I was on
The point with all that being that Selrahc's vote on Sandover in WW2 isn't such a great example of wolves giving the deciding vote, as there were a lot of other factors involved and Sandover was well and truely doomed either way. Quite different from day 2, where no-one was claiming anything in particular and Selrahc might have lasted much longer had he survived the day.
I'd say they'd be reluctant to make the deciding vote, because for every bit it clears you it draws attention. People start accusing it of being a stunt and you end up in a worse position than if you had just kept to yourself. As well as down the wolf you voted off. Hardly worth it.
Posts: 739
Threads: 6
Joined: Sep 2004
I'm going to pull a Lewwyn, and I'm going to steal his Tea Leaves for a little while. I think it's high time we lynched fire&ice.
1) He's one of the quietest Villagers we have, and I'm not just talking posting count. I'm talking posting style, and posting content. He chalks it up to not having anything to add, under the guise of being "the Village Idiot" - what better cover to hide your lack of contributions under than that?
2) He consistently falls smack dab in the middle of the voting blocs - literally! Go look at how the tallies line up: Day 1 exact middle, Day 2 exact middle, Day 3 just above middle (6 candidates, so no exact middle). He didn't vote for MJW, he didn't vote for Selrahc, and he didn't vote for pocketbeetle. He just goes with the flow with minimal explanation and no one ever asks him why. He has one of the most perfect voting records in the game so far - he has yet to actually have a hand in lynching anyone!
3) I have a theory I want to test, and he's as good a test subject as any. No, I'm not going to post my theory - yet. If he turns out a 'Wolf, I'll consider illuminating my thoughts then. If he's a Villager, I'm going to scrap it and go back to square one again. Right now I'd rather choose one person on my list - the safest one - and just go for it.
I'm probably wrong on this one, given my record during the last game, but as I said I have a theory I want to test. Besides, he's just playing the "perfect 'Wolf" all too well, and no one has ever questioned him on it - including myself - because we just all expect him to be him, much as we did with MJW. We eliminated MJW for being a "distraction", and having "the perfect 'Wolf cover". We were wrong about him, but what if that theory was right after all? What if fire&ice is the 'Wolf we were looking for on Day 1, and instead we let emotion (LEWWYN!) guide us to the wrong choice out of two? It's just an interesting side-note, in all honesty, but the rest I think stands on its own. He's been flying under the radar for far too long, and it's time someone put a stop to it.
Mr. Nice Guy:
At those point I'm not inclined to lynch you, nor Jkaen at the moment - although I'm keeping an open mind towards the idea (both of them). I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on my theory of fire&ice, not the least because I'm fairly certain you have blinders on to Jkaen - whether you're right or wrong about him - and I want to pull you back a bit for just a little while.
scooter:
I'm also looking for your input on this one. You were a 'Wolf last game, albeit an obvious one in my humble opinion. What are your thoughts as to fire&ice's behavior and playstyle?
Irgy:
I'm especially looking for your input on this one, as this was essentially the basis for your play in WW2, and I must say I found it working beautifully. I didn't suspect you until about halfway through the game, and even then it was more because I was trying to turn my assumptions upside down and start fresh, rather than anything you did or didn't do to arouse suspicion. Am I way off the mark here, or does it all fit as nicely as I think it does?
Rowain:
You were a 'Wolf last game as well, IIRC, so any input you can give would likewise be helpful. You did a solid job at playing the Villager role last game, I felt, and so again I didn't really begin to suspect you until the late game - again, by throwing my assumptions out the window. Between you and Irgy I pretty well missed the mark, so both of your input would be helpful (no offense scooter).
Anyway, I know it's not the greatest thing in the world to go on, but frankly I think the 'Wolves are doing a better job in this game of staying hidden than they did in either of the previous games. Either that, or we're just piss-poor Villagers. :neenernee In any case, fire&ice has my vote. I'm keeping an open mind here about everything, but I really don't have much of a desire to lynch anyone else on the board at the moment, and he's the most likely candidate in my eyes at the moment. Feel free to offer up alternative theories and ideas.
Posts: 15,358
Threads: 112
Joined: Apr 2007
Roland Wrote:scooter:
I'm also looking for your input on this one. You were a 'Wolf last game, albeit an obvious one in my humble opinion. What are your thoughts as to fire&ice's behavior and playstyle?
Know what's funny about this - is that I was already thinking fire&ice seems like Irgy's style in WW2, and then I get past this line and see you said the same thing to Irgy.
A few things about fire&ice
1. I think the fact that PB's dying words were to "look into fire&ice" carries some weight. Of course, PB has no guaranteed info on him, but to me, his opinion means more than everyone else's here, because I now know for sure he is a villager. Anyone here - if they give their opinion, I always need to take it with a grain of salt since I dont know if they are a WW or not. PB however - I know for sure he was being sincere and helpful. This is NOT insignificant to me - especially since I view him to be a very intelligent and observant person.
2. I found it humorous that fire&ice was so quiet, and then when I included him at the bottom of my top 5 suspects list just once, he responded to it in less than an hour, and of course has not been heard from since... Almost as if he's been keeping an eye out for attention on him, but once it's diverted, he's back to lurking.
3. His behavior does in fact nicely mimic Irgy from WW2. Of course, many villagers have had behavior that mimics Irgy from WW2 as well, however it's still worth noting, as it's a very valid werewolf strategy, that is, stay quiet unless you are mentioned, quickly deflect attention, and go back to lurking, with the occasional content-but-not-really-content post.
I'm staying on Zakalwe for now, but I'll sleep on it. Honestly, I mostly just don't like to make decisions on these things late at night.... for obvious reasons. 
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
I thought about pegging Roland to the wall again...
But I think MNG is innocent, so I switch to MNG
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Posts: 12,335
Threads: 46
Joined: Jan 2011
BTW I also think Rowain and Irgy are innocent, Mardoc too. We should lynch them next and get this game over with.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
|
