Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Irgy]

GES: You're doing what you should be. Heck, I'm not being criticised for not being involved, and I'll happily confess I've skimmed right over a few of the flame-war posts. So as long as you're reading everything and spending the time to think about your vote I'm not going to criticise you.

[Lewwyn]

I'm... more than a little surprised at this stance Lewwyn. I kinda figured after the debacle that happened last game you'd be as diametrically opposed to revealing the power roles as I am. Maybe I'm the only one left with such a bad taste in his mouth after last game? Even Irgy's telling me it's silly to have such an opinion as I do about it, so maybe I am just off my rocker. Honestly Irgy, I think that's part of it, although maybe I have more of a problem with how the reveals went down lats game, rather than the actual revealing itself. I don't know. I honestly hadn't really explored my reasons all that much until it was brought up, hence my knee-jerk reaction earlier.

I guess part of it's just pride, too - which is silly, I'll admit. I just feel like... I don't know, like we're giving up having to resort to this. I mean, I admit it's... clever, in a way, but I still feel like we're trading basically everything, with no real guarantee of benefit. My biggest concern? What if we reveal everyone, and we still don't end up catching a 'Wolf in the next 2 Days? We start losing our power roles left and right, and although the odds are greatly increase we still don't manage to pull anything positive out of it. I admit, I'm a worrier. It's definitely in my nature, and so it tends to make me more cautious than I need to be sometimes. I think that's where I'm sitting right now: too worried about the possibility of failure with such a plan to really consider it (among my other reasons). I'm not sure how to proceed, in all honesty, and as much as I'm babbling about all of this I have to wonder about the wisdom of discussing this at night.

Here's the thing. I'm not saying all the power roles are revealed, only the masons. If the fool reveals, it can't be proven. It's suicide for the Baner to reveal. Basically what is the strength of the Masons? That they know each other to be innocent. That and they can communicate with each other. Why not extend that benefit to the rest of us? Tell us now, before its too late and you become useless. That way we know for sure two more innocents. If the wolves decided to try and fake reveal as masons it'd be suicide because real and fake masons can be easily proven.

I'm not asking for the masons to spill their guts on all their suspects since they can still communicate outside this thread. Just help the rest of us narrow down our pool.

The worst thing that could happen is if the masons do not reveal and the wolves get a lucky hit. That makes the other mason useless because there's no way to prove his identity without killing him. I believe a wolf might even jump at the chance to pretend to be a mason. The remaining mason and the wolf would fight each other while the villagers have to pick one. Pick wrong and they lose another day at 1 to 1. Or even better for the wolves people decided not to vote for either one and pick someone else to lynch. Too complicated for villagers. Better to know now.

And as I said. There's a good possibility once the masons are revealed that the banner will be able to protect them. That means that the wolves will avoid taking a chance at killing the masons! The masons live another night and the wolves will continue a blind search for the baner.

All in all, we're running out of options. We have very few solid suspects. Knowing who the masons are will help tremendously because besides simply clearing two suspects, we also figure out a piece of whats been going on in the voting. Masons acting together on the votes look like wolves coordinating, no? So revealing that will give us a better read on those who are coordinating.

Last game there was no reason to reveal roles. Here there are clearly defined reasons and benefits to revealing the masons. Its the smarter play. Before we had PMs and a network could form, masons would be at the center of that. Without PMs the network has to form in the game thread! No other way. Strategy is never the same, different situations call for different tactics Roland. I may suck at picking out the wolves, but I know tactics.

[Roland]

The only thing that brings them together is a general emotional dislike for the strategy, which I think is what you have.

Yeah, I think you nailed it. :neenernee I don't claim to be logical 100% of the time: I am a creature of emotion, even if I try my best to balance that out with a strong sense of pragmatism, logic, and reason. The two sides aren't completely opposed to one another, but they certainly bash heads often enough.

I really have a bitter taste about the whole idea from last game, although that's not my only opposition to it, and I know that's coloring my judgment here. On top of that, you have my preconceived personal decision that this game would be different from the last - it has been thus far, and overall I've found that to be a greatly positive thing - and so you get my knee-jerk reaction to the idea of a role reveal. I tried to base my reaction in reason rather than emotion (hence the numbers), but obviously I failed in that regard pretty significantly. Oh well - I'm far from perfect. As I said, I'm not judging anyone else - it's entirely a personal hang-up.

. . .I am willing to juggle RL with this game and contribute what I can. If I thought winning this game was super important, I wouldn't have signed up to begin with.

. . . so I haven't been completely useless.

Really, I think people are reading a malicious view in my words when I mentioned people being busy. It's not the case. It was more an observation that it seems several people have had very sudden, unexpected events come up that have made interaction with the game difficult. I don't feel anyone I've mentioned has failed to contribute (well, except fire&ice :neenernee), nor do I have any negative feelings towards anyone here - within the game or without. I'm personally having a good time, as well. I just have gotten the vibe that at least a few people have seemed bothered by "not being able to contribute" due to RL occurrences, and that of course resonates with me emotionally, so I open my mouth because I don't want anyone to feel bad about this game. I haven't been trying to speak on anyone's behalf, so I'm sorry if you feel I spoke out of turn regarding you.

Here's the thing. I'm not saying all the power roles are revealed, only the masons. If the fool reveals, it can't be proven. It's suicide for the Baner to reveal. Basically what is the strength of the Masons? That they know each other to be innocent. That and they can communicate with each other.

Alright, I see what you're saying. It's not like the Masons can do much in this game anyway without being able to form a network, right? At least, that's my understanding. You would know better than I would - you were a Mason last game.

I'm not asking for the masons to spill their guts on all their suspects since they can still communicate outside this thread. Just help the rest of us narrow down our pool.

Well, even if they did, what's wrong with that? I should think they've been contributing their suspect lists, as much as anyone else. At least, I can't think of why they wouldn't, or in fact shouldn't. I mean, the goal is to catch 'Wolves, yes? So sharing their suspects is a good thing, right?

The worst thing that could happen is if the masons do not reveal and the wolves get a lucky hit. That makes the other mason useless because there's no way to prove his identity without killing him. I believe a wolf might even jump at the chance to pretend to be a mason. The remaining mason and the wolf would fight each other while the villagers have to pick one. Pick wrong and they lose another day at 1 to 1. Or even better for the wolves people decided not to vote for either one and pick someone else to lynch. Too complicated for villagers. Better to know now.

There is logic in that argument, I'll give you that, and as I've said you have first-hand experience on the matter.

And as I said. There's a good possibility once the masons are revealed that the banner will be able to protect them. That means that the wolves will avoid taking a chance at killing the masons! The masons live another night and the wolves will continue a blind search for the baner.

That also removes two names from the 'Wolves list of Baner suspects, however. I suppose, mathematically speaking, it's not a huge gain for them, but does it really equate to a better gain for us? I mean, that would bring the suspect list down to 12 from 14, with 4 of those being 'Wolves... so that's a 1 in 3 chance of catching a 'Wolf. I didn't like the odds when they were 50/50. Still, I suppose that's better than giving the 'Wolves a 100% chance at killing the Baner - at least until we find the Void Wolf, anyway.

All in all, we're running out of options. We have very few solid suspects. Knowing who the masons are will help tremendously because besides simply clearing two suspects, we also figure out a piece of whats been going on in the voting. Masons acting together on the votes look like wolves coordinating, no? So revealing that will give us a better read on those who are coordinating.

True, although I'm struggling to come up with any names of people who've been coordinating that well together. I'm probably just missing the obvious here, though.

Last game there was no reason to reveal roles. Here there are clearly defined reasons and benefits to revealing the masons. Its the smarter play. Before we had PMs and a network could form, masons would be at the center of that. Without PMs the network has to form in the game thread! No other way. Strategy is never the same, different situations call for different tactics Roland. I may suck at picking out the wolves, but I know tactics.

Hmmm... Probably the most convincing thing you've said on the subject. I hadn't really looked at it from that point of view. See? I knew you'd have some insight to offer! I just thought it'd be opposition, considering your reaction last game. You certainly make it sound more logical than my position. Of course, it's up to the Masons to decide what they feel is best. Still, when you lay it out as well as you have, and when I stamp down on my emotional reaction to the idea, it does seem a more viable strategy than I initially considered. I wonder what the rest of the Village feels on the matter (aside from keeping mum because it's night time).

[Irgy]

Ok, fine, I give up on not discussing this at night, because Lewwyn's current suggestion requires action before day time.

Here's the problem with anyone revealing, masons, fool, baner, whoever. Although there is a benefit to revealing (though less so for the baner), that benefit may be realised at any time. In particular, it may be realised when they're an actual lynch candidate.

So the question is not what do we gain by them revealing, but what do we gain by them revealing now rather than when they're a candidate? The thing is, if they're not going to be a candidate, then they don't need to be removed from our list of potential candidates, do they? So as far as I see it, relative to revealing later we just inform the wolves, and gain nothing.

Once they're a candidate for lynching, then there is a lot of benefit to revealing, but I would prefer to make that point during the day. This isn't the time to discuss this sort of thing.

Lewwyn has a point about the masons being unconfirmable after the night kill if they get hit, but to me the cost of revealing earlier than necessary outweighs that risk.

[Lewwyn]

True, although I'm struggling to come up with any names of people who've been coordinating that well together. I'm probably just missing the obvious here, though.

This could be why Sandover was killed. If novice is innocent the wolves might believe that Sandover was working with novice during the Selrahc lynch and Sandover simply saying he suspected novice was cover.

[Lewwyn]

So the question is not what do we gain by them revealing, but what do we gain by them revealing now rather than when they're a candidate? The thing is, if they're not going to be a candidate, then they don't need to be removed from our list of potential candidates, do they? So as far as I see it, relative to revealing later we just inform the wolves, and gain nothing.

Once they're a candidate for lynching, then there is a lot of benefit to revealing, but I would prefer to make that point during the day. This isn't the time to discuss this sort of thing.

What if we don't have a chance during the day to reveal because tonight the wolves get lucky? If they kill a mason and we go try to lynch a wolf, and that wolf says, "I'm the other mason." What the hell do you propose then? Its nearly catastrophic because without the other mason to confirm we'd go ahead and lynch that person even if they were the other mason! Or if they were a WW we'd not lynch them in favor of another suspect and put them on hold.

Its not just the benefits of revealing that you have to weigh here. While I believe the benefits are substantial, I also think the preemptive reveal cuts off more more problems in the future. Potential chaos and loss can be averted while making a substantial gain! I feel that the benefits of waiting until they are a lynch target are outweighed by the potential risk of waiting that long.

Also, I'm suggesting that the masons reveal at the last second tonight so that they are not revealed when the wolves can react during the night. This gives you the benefit of waiting for at least another night and maximizes the benefit of knowing who the masons are as the Day starts. This way we maximize gain and minimize risk.

So yes while there may be benefits to waiting, the potential pitfalls of doing so far outweigh those benefits, and in addition we get the other benefits I've outlined previously.

[Serdoa]

Some explanations and thoughts:

1. We need our power roles later!

Our power roles do shit for us right now. So yes, they will get night-killed in the process but for the village it does not make the slightest difference. We will lose a villager every night anyway - it does not make ANY difference for us if this villager is the Fool or a Mason or just a normal villager. Only the Baner could hurt later on - but thats not necessarily true. Especially with a Void Wolf and the amount of good (and lucky) play the wolves have shown till now.

2. If our power roles reveal themselves now instead of when they are a lynch target, what do we gain?

a. Less chaos. If they reveal 8 hours before they are lynched then it gets messy and they could easily die anyway.
b. More information on votes and arguments. With 4 players being trusted villagers it is much easier to understand votes and more importantly to see who opposed them and in which way.

3. Don't reveal, just get in the late game and it will be easier to identify the wolves - we won all games late!

Yes, I agree. And if 4 players reveal and are innocent, that leaves us at 10 players, 4 of them wolves. That pretty much exactly resembles what the endgame looks like, now does it? So, we DO win in the endgame - we just start it a little bit earlier.

I have to get to work now but I try to answer later why I think that the role-claiming by wolves won't be that much of an issue.

[novice]

I think The Grand Reveal should be reconsidered in a day or two.
The Masons should most definitely NOT role claim now, especially not during a night phase.

A single mason is no less useful than the fool or the baner with regards to proving his innocense.

What we can keep in mind is that as we accuse new players, and they don't pull out the "I'm a fool/baner/mason" defense, chances are improved that they're a wolf.

[Jkaen]

I am still dead set against reveals, especially during the night time.

[Lewwyn]

I"ve already said there's no point in having the baner or fool reveal. That's not my point. Only the masons should reveal as they can prove their identities by confirming each other.

Again I'm saying wait until the end of night to reveal when the wolves can not react during the night.

Hey novice are you even reading what I said? A single mason is useless, yes, which is why the masons must reveal why they are both still alive. We need them to reveal while there is still the opportunity to capitalize on it. By waiting we are simply hoping the wolves don't get lucky. That makes no logical sense. Honestly, the masons aren't doing a very good job as it is anyway if we're just watching the lynches go by. By revealing they do so much for the village's sense of what is going on, plus they make the baner usefull! Suddenly the baner has a target to protect! Right now all he is doing is stumbling around in the dark hoping to get a lucky save on some random person who might even be a wolf!