Mardoc Wrote:Moderately suspicious, but to my mind the thing that saves him here is that none of the top three were wolves. Safe but irrelevant seems to me the best strategy when there's a wolf at risk and you don't want to vote him or have to explain voting for a villager. Not so much when for all we know, he may have been the only one voting on a wolf.
That is an interesting point. Lewwyn is someone whom I still haven't made my mind up about whether he's a 'Wolf or an innocent. Of course, his voting record is among the worst in the game, so I'm not exactly convinced of his guilt, but it is an interesting question. I don't believe novice is a 'Wolf, so that would leave Lewwyn as the only potential 'Wolf who was on the board during Day 1. Still, given his voting record, his posts in general, and just the odds on Day 1 I'm inclined to think he's innocent - even if I can't quite bring myself to truly label him as such. Of course, if Lewwyn is a 'Wolf, then that would mean Ichabod parked an early vote on a 'Wolf two days in a row - almost as though he was consciously trying to establish deep cover from the beginning. I don't think that was his plan, but that alone doesn't lessen my suspicion of him - especially since I'm not convinced Lewwyn is a 'Wolf in the first place.
Mardoc Wrote:Finally, fire&ice: he still seems suspicious to me. On the other hand, Zakalwe's been mentioning him off and on from Day 2 as 'why aren't we voting for him', with the occasional vote thrown in. If Zakalwe's a wolf, I'm inclined to consider fire&ice innocent.
See, for me, it would take both Ichabod and zakalwe being 'Wolves for me to believe fire&ice is innocent. I mean, when zakalwe voted for fire&ice there was still a fair bit of suspicion surrounding him, and if he's a 'Wolf he'd know lynching Mr. Nice Guy is a bad idea, so jumping on board another 'Wolf would be like killing 2 birds with 1 stone: save a Villager and kill a 'Wolf, while avoiding the noose himself. Of course, that he then switched back to Mr. Nice Guy towards the end is most easily explainable by fire&ice being a 'Wolf, and zakalwe deciding to spare their team a kill when we can so little afford to lose another Villager. Even if we lynch either of them today, zakalwe will have bought his brethren another day, and brought us that much closer to defeat. Ichabod, on the other hand, cast a "safe" vote in the 11th hour. If he's a 'Wolf he'd have known Mr. Nice Guy was a Villager, and thus wanted to avoid voting for him.
I guess what it boils down to is that, of the three (fire&ice, Ichabod, and zakalwe), I'm convinced at least 2 of them are 'Wolves, and possibly all 3. Whether it's Ichabod or fire&ice, I can't say for sure - if it's only 2 of the 3 - but lynching zakalwe should tell us a fair bit about fire&ice, because if he is a 'Wolf it incriminates fire&ice that much more.
Serdoa Wrote:I will for now follow this. Roland
Is it ironic that I find Rowain's vote for me more suspicious than yours? At least you're consistent - and persistent! Love you too, Serdoa.
Serdoa Wrote:scooter and Rowain are the last "old" wolves left
Yup. I suspect both of being wolves. If the wolves are killing off ex-wolves, these two are either lucky and unlikely, or they're the ones doing the killing.
novice Wrote:To me this looks more like a wolf jumping on to your train of thought (for nefarious reasons).
Normally I would agree with you, except for the fact that I don't recall ever posting such thoughts, and certainly not so explicitly.
Roland, please don't feel that I'm picking on you, but you didn't exactly make a secret out of your Zakalwe suspicions yesterday. Here are some recent posts by you where you share your thoughts on Zakalwe. My point is simply that is would be easy and natural for a wolf to seize on these thoughts and write up an appealing theory for next day's lynch. And your thoughts were not the only thoughts to be seized upon, I for example also shared my suspicions on Zakalwe.
My feeling is that scooter has been doing this sort of thing all game long, supporting every theory that could be plausibly supported, and never called out anything as bullshit. (Although this is one theory he's bound to call bullshit.)
Roland Wrote:As I already explained, I had no idea why people were voting zakalwe. It wasn't until I dedicated a few hours yesterday to reviewing his posts that I finally saw. I came up with my vote for fire&ice why trying to find someone new, since I had no real reading of 'Wolf on either Mr. Nice Guy or zakalwe. I've since changed my stance a bit on the latter.
Someone posted the theory that between fire&ice and zakalwe, we should lynch fire&ice first, because if he's a 'Wolf it will incriminate zakalwe. I didn't agree at the time, nor did I disagree - I was indifferent. However, after reviewing it, especially in the context of my theory on fire&ice, and now even more after seeing zakalwe's latest response(s), I feel it's better to lynch zakalwe before fire&ice. Since that won't happen today, if fire&ice gets lynched it may tell us something about zakalwe, although that's hard to gauge. At this point everything for any of the top three suspects (fire&ice, Mr. Nice Guy, zakalwe) can point to either 'Wolf or Villager, in my view. Still, I have no problem with any of those three being up on the block, although I'm the least certain about Mr. Nice Guy of the three (I think).
Roland Wrote:I feel responsible for not pushing harder against fire&ice, or coming around to zakalwe sooner. Either way I maybe could have helped save Mr. Nice Guy.
Roland Wrote:As for having a better plan, yes I think I do - lynch zakalwe! :neenernee Seriously though, yes I feel I have a better plan, or at least a plan I like better because I feel it's based upon better theories than that crazy one Serdoa's proposing.
Fun fact: The only time scooters vote has been part of the lynching was when we killed Selrahc. He has perfect voting record and no innocent blood in his hands. If you don't count the night killings, that is.
Love you too, Serdoa. 
