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Serdoa Wrote:As for F&I: I think finding out if he is a wolf or not will tell us something about the voting yesterday. Thats more then what can be said for most all other villagers.
I'm afraid it doesn't. Regardless of the result, I think we will see smartly placed wolf votes, which won't get us closer to the truth. If he's a wolf, I doubt that the wolves were trying to save him in an obvious fashion (they can afford to lose one). If he is a villager, we learn absolutely nothing, since F&I has not really played the game. We cannot look back and see who's agreed with him and who's not, since there's nothing to look for.
It's a whole different scenario if we would lynch any active player. Even if that person would be a villager, we learn a lot from the history.
So I don't think that killing F&I will put us any closer on finding the active wolves, so I don't think we should lynch him next.
Unfortunately the wolves have played so well that it's really hard to identify active wolves. That's why I think revealing the Masons would help to lessen the suspect pool.
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Rowain suspects Roland? That's interesting.
zakalwe Wrote:The bowyer wants the vintner to fence
"Show me your hard evidence!" (if you know what I mean)
But they both agree the stablehand should die
Never mind why, just hang him high!
Ease up, guys. 
Btw, I just found this awesome verse back towards the end of day 3. If you go back and read the surrounding discussion, it's pretty bizarre. Rowain and Roland "quarreling" with each other over who has the hardest evidence or something, while both of their votes are pushing Pocketbeetle towards the gallows. Nice teamwork.
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I suspect that Zakalwe's post was just a clever ploy to make us listen his old songs again. Running out of ideas, eh?
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Serdoa Wrote:So I believe him that he is just desperately trying to get his point across, being that he is really suspecting you and want others to start looking into this possibility.
What if he's a 'Wolf? He could be trying to bluff us into thinking he's a Villager, and thus not vote for him - thereby saving himself. Moreover, if it works, and he is spared, we'll never know what he is until the end - but he's doing a good job of sewing suspicion onto two targets most people feel are innocent. Is that truly a solid Villager strategy - attack the foundations of our beliefs, thereby INCREASING the potential 'Wolf pool, and making it more difficult for us to find a 'Wolf? If he was picking someone who's more likely to be a 'Wolf I wouldn't put up a fuss, but honestly, at this point his behavior is more suspicious than it is innocent, and it's coming at a time when multiple people are suspecting him. Now, with zakalwe under heavy suspicion, he comes up with this theory, and zakalwe chimes in "Hey, yeah, you DO look suspicious Rowain!", thereby removing suspicion from himself, and potentially - if Rowain is a Villager - furthering us along the road to defeat. It's adding more obfuscation when right now we need clarity. Which brings me to my next point.
Rowain Wrote:Thats why I wanted the Masons to reveal, to have people we can trust. Because even if novice, you or I are telling something, no one knows if we are not wolves - we can't not even believe one another. We have to stop that and the only way I see is the Masons coming forward and starting to guide the village. That might not win us the game but it finally would give us villagers someone to look at. And it would give much better indication about possible wolves.
That's right. Put enough pressure onto enough Villagers, and sooner or later you'll find one who's a power role - and get them to crack under the pressure. That's just what the 'Wolves want - make their job easier in finding the Baner, the only thing that can possibly thwart their victory so long as we continue to lynch Villagers.
Honestly, you two are coming across as a tag-team 'Wolf combo. I'm baffled as to why a Villager would agree to this line of theory, let alone be the one proposing it. It just doesn't make sense - at least to me. Maybe it's just me though! Maybe I'm the crazy one? Let's just start picking people at random and throwing them away! I've been under the impression through most of this game that you're a Villager Serdoa. Maybe I should turn that on its head and try to lynch you! Or novice! Or Gold Ergo Sum! Or anyone else whom I've suspect as a Villager! That's GOT to be the right play for us at this point, right?
I miss Irgy. I truly, truly miss Irgy. I'm sure he could find a calm, rational way to explain all of this, and make sense of it all - regardless of whether he agrees with me or not. I trusted him - and I was right to do so, ultimately. Now with him gone, I feel like the Village has lost one of its most useful assets, and I feel it's really starting to show already.
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So... who's up for lynching Roland next? I'm coming close at least 
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Meiz Wrote:I'm afraid it doesn't. Regardless of the result, I think we will see smartly placed wolf votes, which won't get us closer to the truth. If he's a wolf, I doubt that the wolves were trying to save him in an obvious fashion (they can afford to lose one). If he is a villager, we learn absolutely nothing, since F&I has not really played the game. We cannot look back and see who's agreed with him and who's not, since there's nothing to look for.
It's a whole different scenario if we would lynch any active player. Even if that person would be a villager, we learn a lot from the history.
So I don't think that killing F&I will put us any closer on finding the active wolves, so I don't think we should lynch him next.
Unfortunately the wolves have played so well that it's really hard to identify active wolves. That's why I think revealing the Masons would help to lessen the suspect pool.
I don't think the wolves can afford to lose one as easily as you make it sound. The less villagers are left the harder it gets to hide between them. Losing a wolf means the village can lose more villagers, so losing one of their own is not great. And also, we had yesterday quite a bit on votes on MNG. 9 out of 16 or some such? Look at the other days, never was the village as united as yesterday - I would bet that we had several wolves on MNG.
I also don't agree with that we would learn more from lynching an active player. First, if it is a villager we lynch then we lose one of the biggest contributors. Second, if it is a villager he didn't know and other villagers didn't know that he is one. Take Roland and me as example. If we lynch Roland and he is a wolf, am I certainly innocent because I disagreed with him? And if we lynch me and you see that I am a villager, is Roland suddenly a wolf?
No, lynching an active player does not tell us anything if he was not on the block before. At least not if we get not lucky and nail a wolf. And then it tells us as much as lynching F&I and revealing him as wolf.
But what I agree with is that the Masons should reveal. That would help us having an anchor for us villagers.
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@ Roland I find it really interesting that you are quoting Serdoa with my name above it.
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Serdoa Wrote:I don't think the wolves can afford to lose one as easily as you make it sound. The less villagers are left the harder it gets to hide between them. Losing a wolf means the village can lose more villagers, so losing one of their own is not great.
I'm not sure how much I agree or disagree with this assessment, to be honest. I feel as though they can afford to throw one 'Wolf away if it helps net them at least one more Villager... but maybe I'm completely wrong? I mean, obviously losing a 'Wolf is bad for them - the later it is, the worse it is. Still, I can't help but feel as though they'd happily sacrifice one if it got them at least a Villager in exchange - 1:1, and all that.
Serdoa Wrote:And also, we had yesterday quite a bit on votes on MNG. 9 out of 16 or some such? Look at the other days, never was the village as united as yesterday - I would bet that we had several wolves on MNG.
I agree. I'd wager it's either 50/50 Mr. Nice Guy versus fire&ice, or 75/25. Either way, that still leaves too many Villager potentials.
Serdoa Wrote:I also don't agree with that we would learn more from lynching an active player. First, if it is a villager we lynch then we lose one of the biggest contributors. Second, if it is a villager he didn't know and other villagers didn't know that he is one. Take Roland and me as example. If we lynch Roland and he is a wolf, am I certainly innocent because I disagreed with him? And if we lynch me and you see that I am a villager, is Roland suddenly a wolf?
No, lynching an active player does not tell us anything if he was not on the block before. At least not if we get not lucky and nail a wolf. And then it tells us as much as lynching F&I and revealing him as wolf.
I'm in agreement here, and would like to add the question of just how do we determine which active person to lynch? It's not like we can afford many misses - 2 is cutting it very close to me, considering how we have many more than 2 active players, and most of them likely to be Villagers.
Rowain Wrote:@ Roland I find it really interesting that you are quoting Serdoa with my name above it.
. . . Yeah, good point. I don't know quite how I did that? Mix up with the copy and paste.
This:
Rowain Wrote:Thats why I wanted the Masons to reveal, to have people we can trust. Because even if novice, you or I are telling something, no one knows if we are not wolves - we can't not even believe one another. We have to stop that and the only way I see is the Masons coming forward and starting to guide the village. That might not win us the game but it finally would give us villagers someone to look at. And it would give much better indication about possible wolves.
...should actually read this:
Serdoa Wrote:Thats why I wanted the Masons to reveal, to have people we can trust. Because even if novice, you or I are telling something, no one knows if we are not wolves - we can't not even believe one another. We have to stop that and the only way I see is the Masons coming forward and starting to guide the village. That might not win us the game but it finally would give us villagers someone to look at. And it would give much better indication about possible wolves.
Sorry about that. First time for everything.
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Roland Wrote:That's right. Put enough pressure onto enough Villagers, and sooner or later you'll find one who's a power role - and get them to crack under the pressure. That's just what the 'Wolves want - make their job easier in finding the Baner, the only thing that can possibly thwart their victory so long as we continue to lynch Villagers.
Why? Really, why is everyone putting all his bets on our Baner? I believe that we can win this, even if we would lose our Baner, if we just start to try to find together a solution. Thats why I put F&I forward, because he seems to be a suspect of us all.
Quote:Honestly, you two are coming across as a tag-team 'Wolf combo. I'm baffled as to why a Villager would agree to this line of theory, let alone be the one proposing it. It just doesn't make sense - at least to me. Maybe it's just me though! Maybe I'm the crazy one? Let's just start picking people at random and throwing them away! I've been under the impression through most of this game that you're a Villager Serdoa. Maybe I should turn that on its head and try to lynch you! Or novice! Or Gold Ergo Sum! Or anyone else whom I've suspect as a Villager! That's GOT to be the right play for us at this point, right?
Roland, why are so emotional again? Yeah, Rowain and I do have a different opinion then you. So what? Just logically explain your stance and why you would or would not agree and what you instead see as the best play regarding reveals from the Masons. And if we or I then counterexplain then you can again counter it. And at the end we hopefully find the right solution. But the way you are acting here is not helping at all, it just brings a rational problem down to an emotional level.
Quote:I miss Irgy. I truly, truly miss Irgy. I'm sure he could find a calm, rational way to explain all of this, and make sense of it all - regardless of whether he agrees with me or not. I trusted him - and I was right to do so, ultimately. Now with him gone, I feel like the Village has lost one of its most useful assets, and I feel it's really starting to show already.
See Roland. And thats why we need some guidance. And that can be provided by the Masons. Because they can unite us as really trusted villagers. Please, just try to not look from an emotional level at it but instead be honest: What if you trust novice and he is a wolf? Or you trust me and I am a wolf? That would lose us villagers the game because we never would identify those wolves.
I am honest: I don't know if my ideas are great or bad - thats my second game WW and I have not read several pages about this game and the theory behind and all that. I just play and try to use my analytical skills as best as I am able too to find the wolves. I feel rather lost right now with no one I can 100% trust, no one I can discuss stuff without having to fear that he is a wolf trying to throw me off. Especially with so many players not playing for various reasons. Again, thats why I want to lynch F&I. We all suspect him, if we are right, we have again gained some more trust between us.
Shortly again as for the Mason reveal I'm asking for: Yes, it will be easier to find the Baner. But if you take all the people claiming just to be villagers (not actually claiming but hinting to it in their posts, sometimes probably without noticing themselves) then there are not much left for Mason and Baner anyway. Especially for the wolves who do know the roles of 4 more players. Why do you think they got our Fool now?
So thats why I believe that claiming does not hurt us as much as it would help us. But we can wait till tomorrow as well with that. I mean we can lynch today a villager and tomorrow. Only then we need to get it right - but every day from there on out. I personally would rather start now to up our chances by making our suspect pool smaller but if the Masons do feel differently or I have simply overlooked something we will wait (not that I could force the reveal anyway...).
Anyway, maybe we don't need the Masons and instead can work out one suspect which we all can agree to vote for? I mean, thats why I put forth F&I after all...
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Lynch:
3v: zakalwe ( Roland, scooter, Mardoc )
2v: scooter ( Meiz, novice )
2v: fire&ice ( Serdoa, zakalwe )
1v: Roland ( Rowain )
Not Voting:
Bruindane, fire&ice, Gold Ergo Sum, Ichabod, Jkaen, Lewwyn
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