scooter Wrote:Lewwyn - What was with your vote swapping? You swapped to me, then attempted to do a last minute swap to Zakalwe, not getting there on time. What was your thinking there and why'd you do that?
I've actually answered this just before, here's the thought process:
Lewwyn Wrote:Maybe... when I saw no traction on the novice vote, I set my sights on zakalwe, but I wanted to shake it up and see what fell out. I believed F&I to be innocent so I voted for him. Then novice made a move and I wanted to put pressure on that, so I followed. But all the while I was planning on switching back to Zakalwe at the last second. Roland just took the whole thing out of my hands.
Gold Ergo Sum Wrote:I guess even with the mis-lynch, we came out ahead?
No, we broke even basically. Even worse is that Bruindane was a wolf and he wasn't that influential in the votes so its harder to get a read on other wolves.
We're basically just getting lucky here. I'm questioning everything. I wish we had lynched zakalwe so I could be clear about something. This lynch and modkill do nothing to help my thought process or suspicions. I'm basically in the same place as I was after the MNG lynch. I'm gonna have to go back to look at Bruindane's stuff.
Whats funny is F&I and Bruindane are the two in my wesnoth game, so...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Bruindane Wrote:I would like for the baner to consider protecting Rowain. I trust him, essentially for switching his vote off MJW.
Bruindane Wrote:I've tried to understand, but I don't get it. It's not that I have a negative read on pocketbeetle's accusation, but that I have such a positive read on Rowain.
Bruindane Wrote:@ Meiz - I think it's a fallacy to lynch PB or Rowain and be able to declare the other guy is a villager/wolf based on the result. PB is a wonderful lightening rod, because people vote for him, including myself, and then bounce off for all sorts of reasons.
Brundaine abandons his theory against novice once Roland points out the flaws, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post122907
He abandons it because he does not see it possible that Rowain would also be a wolf.
Brundaine helped to test Rowain's theory by voting PB.
Why did Rowain not switch to Selrahc to save his own skin, on day 2? I think it's because we actually had two wolves on the chopping block, so again they salvaged what they could from the situation.
LOL, seems like I'm forever cross-posting with Meiz. I had all of this written up, I was just waiting to post it until the night was about to end. But I may as well post it up for discussion now, to go with Meiz' post.
I'd like to elaborate a little on my reasons for suspecting Rowain, and also re-introduce a previous suspect of mine. Meiz and Novice have made some points that I agree with, and I've got some thoughts of my own too. First of all, as Meiz pointed out, why didn't Selrahc go with the safe option of voting for Pocketbeetle on day 2? Rowain actually asked the same question after day 2, concluding that the reason must be that Pocketbeetle was another wolf. We know that wasn't the case, so I think what Meiz proposed makes a lot of sense as an alternate explanation: the wolves wanted to spread out their votes.
So here is the post where Selrahc "made a stand" and voted for Novice instead of Pocketbeetle.
Selrahc Wrote:I think a lot of the arguments about me are now just assuming I am a wolf, and thus what I do is wolfish.
I don't think there is much point engaging with those arguments. It's all gotten into some rather ephemeral stuff about how much "content" I was posting. I maintain that my vote for MJW was perfectly well explained and reasonable, and I've already said that part of the reason behind the "meta" posts was to try and entice the wolves into wasting a night kill on me.
I think that is basically all I need to say for the defence. I'll leave it there for now... unless someone is going to say something drastically new.
Of the arguments presented today, I think Mardoc's are very optimistic but I'd like to investigate them further by voting for Novice. I also think a mayor wolf could work quite well. If I'd been just a regular wolf I would have continued the mayor campaign in WW2. I only tried to distance myself from it because I'd been made the the devil. Novice could easily be any wolf except the voider.
I'm not going to give a general list of suspects. I don't really have a good one yet. It's day 2. I'm not liking the general push to lynch me, but I can't really say if it is wolfy yet.
At this point, Pocketbeetle had 5 votes, and Novice had 3. Going from the tally in post #542, and adding in the three subsequent votes, the situation when Selrahc cast his vote was as follows:
So at the time that Selrahc "made his stand", the Pocketbeetle voters were: Rowain, Lewwyn, Jkaen, Bruindane, and Mardoc. The Novice voters were Mr. Nice Guy, Sandover, and Serdoa. Four unknowns and a wolf voting for Pocketbeetle, and two innocents and an unknown voting for Novice. Why didn't Selrahc support the majority vote, when his own hide was on the line? I think Meiz nailed it: the wolves wanted to spread out their votes, and there were too many wolves on Pocketbeetle already. One out of five isn't "too many", so this implies that one or more of Rowain, Lewwyn, Jkaen, and Mardoc must be wolves too. In particular, I suspect Rowain and Mardoc.
Apart from the above, Rowain did campaign to become mayor, which could have been an attempt to go for deep cover. It's not really a very exposed position either: there's no particular reason that the mayor should be in any imminent danger of being lynched, since he would need fairly broad support to get elected in the first place. Furthermore, he gets a double vote to save himself, and nobody can blame him for breaking a tie away from himself. Or maybe the aim was never to actually become mayor, just to campaign for it in a half-hearted manner, and use the campaign as cover.
Previously, I have posed the following question concerning Rowain: If he's a wolf, why did Selrahc vote for him? Now that I have considered it again, I don't really think that's such a mystery. It is perhaps best answered by inverting the question: Why not? When a rush of votes towards Rowain left just Selrahc and him in the running, why shouldn't Selrahc vote for his fellow wolf? It builds a little cover for Rowain, and if he said "yeah, I'm innocent and all, but I'm certainly not voting for Rowain" that would have been doubly suspicious.
Moving on to the case for Mardoc: He was also under suspicion on day 2, but evaded it by posting an elaborate "grand theory", naming 5 potential wolves:
Mardoc Wrote:I think I've picked out the werewolf team: novice, Meiz, Pocketbeetle, Cull, Lewwyn.
Like I commented at the time, this could simply be a clever way to cast a wide net, to see if anything sticks. After this stunt, he was generally considered an inexperienced villager, and there were plenty of "overbearing" comments patting him on the back. Bruindane ingeniously helped solidify this interpretation of events by posting his legendary "Mardoc's fear" picture. As a result, Mardoc gained instant "innocent" status, and he later built upon this success by stating that anyone who agreed with his "ludicrous" theory in the first place clearly had to be wolves. Mardoc may be inexperienced, but it's not like we're all a bunch of WW veterans here: few of us have more than a single game to look back on. So while his strategy on day 1 was a little easy to see through, I'm inclined to think Mardoc has quickly learned the ropes and played a very strong game - as a wolf.
zakalwe Wrote:One out of five isn't "too many", so this implies that one or more of Rowain, Lewwyn, Jkaen, and Mardoc must be wolves too. In particular, I suspect Rowain and Mardoc.
[Size="7"]End of Night 5[/Size] The night was rather unusual. There seemed to be a distinct lack of screaming in the air. Maybe the village would have noticed if they were not already fast asleep, having gotten used to screams in the night.
Silently, the Baner celebrates. The Baner has saved a villager with the wolfsbane. The previous nights, the Baner's been able to go out and clean the door before dawn, because the wolves have been busy elsewhere. But this night, they pace around the door to Ichabod's house, unable to enter and unwilling to leave. Perhaps this will give the village hope then, that not all is lost. The Baner goes to bed satisfied, with a job well done.
In the morning, Ichabod walked out of his door, and scrunched his nose. There was a most particular smell in the air, he took two more steps forward and the smell cleared. He turned around to close the door and stopped. Smeared across the door was a strange green substance; had this thwarted the wolves last night? How curious.
[COLOR="Blue"]The wolves tried to eat Ichabod!
Ichabod was saved by the Baner.[/COLOR]
List of Remaining Players:
Scooter - Grizzled Smith
[STRIKE]Selrahc - Scribe[/STRIKE] Lynched on Day 2, Werewolf.
Zakalwe - Cacophonous Bard
[STRIKE]Cull - Farmer[/STRIKE] Resigned on Day 3 due to time constraints, Villager.
Serdoa - Brewer
[STRIKE]Bobchillingsworth - Amateur Snoop[/STRIKE] Eaten on Night 1, Seer.
Ichabod - Children's Teacher
[STRIKE]Uberfish - Elven Emissary[/STRIKE] Eaten on Night 2, Villager.
Lewwyn - Carpenter
Mardoc - Glass Blower
Gold Ergo Sum - Bricklayer
[STRIKE]MJW (Ya That One) - Travelling Inquisitor[/STRIKE] Lynched on Day 1, Villager.
[STRIKE]Irgy - Trapper[/STRIKE] Eaten on Night 4, Fool
[STRIKE]Mr. Nice Guy - Tailor[/STRIKE] Lynched on Day 4, Villager
Meiz - Retired Barbarian
Rowain - Vintner
Novice - Farmhand
JKaen - Herbalist
[STRIKE]Sandover - Innkeeper[/STRIKE] Eaten on Night 3, Villager
[STRIKE]Pocketbeetle - Stablehand[/STRIKE] Lynched on Day 3, Villager
[STRIKE]Fire & Ice - Village Idiot[/STRIKE] Lynched on Day 5, Villager
Roland - Bowyer
[STRIKE]Bruindane - Menhir Deliveryman[/STRIKE] Modkilled on Day 5, Werewolf
