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Ichabod · March 29th, 2011, 13:17

Mardoc Wrote:To play Devil's Advocate here, although I still think Rowain's guilty; any time a wolf makes a true statement, he likely grants himself cover as a result. If Rowain were a villager, then if/when we lynched him, Bruindane would have been further trusted.

On the other hand, Bruindane said so little all in all, and as far as I know was unsuspected anyway, that your explanation fits better. Spend a little credibility from the trusted wolf to keep alive a non-trusted wolf a bit longer.

I'm not sure I buy your theory that we'll learn a lot from lynching Rowain, though; I've racked my brains and haven't come up with much in the way of connections between him and anyone else. I want to lynch him cause he's a probable wolf, but I don't expect tomorrow to be any easier as a result.

Of course I just got finished talking about how bad I am at this game and how unlikely it is for my thoughts to be right, so take that with a grain of salt . There's probably something pretty obvious connecting him and another target and I've just blithely gone sailing by.

Interesting thing to notice is that Bruindane voted to lynch PB the day after he made this comment (he said it on night 2 and voted PB on day 3)...

Rowain · March 29th, 2011, 14:31

Mardoc Wrote:Rowain, I'm sorry, but that looks to me like an accusation, not a theory. What's the connection here? Just that they disagree with each other a lot?

The theory is that it connects several people to be wolfs.

Mardoc Wrote:It doesn't explain why none of your suspects voted for Lewwyn Day 3, for instance.

With 2 voting for PB the votes of the other 2 were going anywhere else. there was no reason for those 2 to place them on any special place. Remember at that moment it did look very likely that I would be the next on the chop if PB turns out as villager

Mardoc Wrote:It also doesn't explain why they let Selrahc die Day 2 when they could have had you instead.

Because lynching a villager with 4 wolves isn't the best play for wolves.

Rowain · March 29th, 2011, 14:35

Roland Wrote:I'm also curious if you still feel I am a 'Wolf, although I suppose I could hazard a guess that you no longer feel that is the case? If that is so, is it based upon your theories about the remaining 'Wolves, or based upon evidence that I am a Villager (or lack of evidence that I am a 'Wolf)?

It is because I have enough wolves with it. I also confess the fact that you are not included makes me a bit nervous.

Roland · March 29th, 2011, 16:29

Because everyone deserves one. smile

(Also, I have no life, and this is what happens when I get stuck at work late waiting on a customer to retrieve their vehicle and pay their bill. :neenernee smile

See if any of you notice and particular patterns that may prove useful in the coming days.

Begin Data Mining...

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Day 2 - Turn 21:

*** Mardoc's EPIC WOLF POST! ***

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Day 2 - Turn 24:

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Day 2 - Turn 36:
[SPOILER]
6v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Jkaen, Bruindane, Mardoc, fire&ice )
5v: novice ( Mr. Nice Guy, Sandover, Serdoa, Selrahc, Meiz )
4v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish, novice, Irgy )
1v: fire&ice ( zakalwe )
1v: Lewwyn ( Gold Ergo Sum )
1v: Sandover ( Cull )
1v: Irgy ( scooter )

Rowain votes pocketbeetle
novice votes Mardoc
Meiz votes Mardoc
Jkaen votes Mr. Nice Guy
Bruindane votes Mr. Nice Guy
Mardoc votes pocketbeetle
fire&ice votes Mr. Nice Guy
Irgy votes Jkaen
Ichabod votes Selrahc
uberfish votes Mr. Nice Guy
zakalwe votes Mardoc
uberfish switches from Mr. Nice Guy to Selrahc
Gold Ergo Sum votes Lewwyn
Cull votes Sandover
Lewwyn votes Mardoc
Mr. Nice Guy votes Gold Ergo Sum
scooter votes [b][color=DeepSkyBlue]Ir

Roland · March 29th, 2011, 16:53

Well, shoot. Forgot to remove the "Mardoc's" theory bit, and it's misplaced anyway. Oh well. No edits - can't make everything perfect. :neenernee

Mardoc · March 29th, 2011, 16:54

That's a very helpful way to present the data, Roland. I hadn't realized we know the allegiances of that many of the villagers at this point, either.

I also hadn't realized just how late in the day the swing against Rowain started, compared to all the other action. You're right (and I was wrong again), it will be interesting to see for sure if Rowain's a wolf, there's a number of votes at the end that will change their implications a lot if he's a wolf vs. innocent.

Mardoc · March 29th, 2011, 16:55

Roland Wrote:Well, shoot. Forgot to remove the "Mardoc's" theory bit, and it's misplaced anyway. Oh well. No edits - can't make everything perfect. :neenernee

I did notice that in your telling, Meiz switched away from me *before* I posted my theory, but I remember that as being mostly causal. And was wondering why I got special treatment, for that matter smile

Roland · March 29th, 2011, 17:12

Mardoc Wrote:That's a very helpful way to present the data, Roland. I hadn't realized we know the allegiances of that many of the villagers at this point, either.

Well, it's difficult to say we "know" too much at this point, with only 2 known 'Wolves. However, it gives us a detailed road map of the movements of ALL Villagers, including known 'Wolves and Villagers, so it may make it easier for us to spot certain trends and patterns. Even just going through, collecting and sorting all the data, has opened my eyes and made me rethink some of my suspicions. I'm sure at least one other person will find it equally enlightening.

Mardoc Wrote:I also hadn't realized just how late in the day the swing against Rowain started, compared to all the other action. You're right (and I was wrong again), it will be interesting to see for sure if Rowain's a wolf, there's a number of votes at the end that will change their implications a lot if he's a wolf vs. innocent.

Yes, the Rowain swing was very late in the day. I wasn't sure how long this was going to take me, so I wasn't certain I would get it done tonight, but after seeing that (and a few other notable events) I wanted to get it done right away, so we'd have as much time as possible to pore over the data.

Also, this has never been about who's right and who's wrong. This was about collecting and sharing data in an easily readable, usable format for the purpose of spotting potential trends and patterns, so that we may more easily identify the 'Wolves (and Villagers) - or, as you put it, allegiances. smile

Mardoc Wrote:I did notice that in your telling, Meiz switched away from me *before* I posted my theory, but I remember that as being mostly causal. And was wondering why I got special treatment, for that matter

Well, I started keeping personal notes of notable events that occurred around the time of certain votes (for reference), but gave up after the first attempt when I realized how daunting the whole task was without adding to it. :neenernee Hence, that note slipped in there seemingly at random, and yes - it wasn't in the right place to begin with. I forgot to remove it before posting, because I forgot it was even there. smile

Also, your post was the first "big" thing I noticed - mostly the immediate swing away from you directly following your post. That's why the note is out-of-place: I put it there after I picked up on the swing, and just forgot to move it (and delete it).

At this point, I'm not quite as certain on Rowain. I'm going to have to look over the data I collected in a fresher light, and see if the result still fits the theory. However, I can see at least a handful of potential targets we may want to pursue regardless of how Rowain comes out. I would urge everyone, if they have the time, to look over what I've collected and see if your own theories can fit within the framework of the course of events.

Roland · March 29th, 2011, 17:19

One more nit:
Turn 23 is a duplicate of Turn 22. It can be safely ignored in its entirety.

Mardoc · March 29th, 2011, 17:28

So...any plans to update that with new info as it comes in? Or to do other days? It's a pretty massive undertaking, even with copy and paste. But very handy.

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