[SPOILERS] The Peaceful Centaur: a Study in Possibility

[Irgy]

My initial thoughts on ideal ways to deal with people:

On the whole, I'm agreed with all of what you've said, with just a few minor points:

On the other hand, maybe it's worth giving up a bit for peaceable relations?

It certainly is, but even better is to make sure he appreciates that we're giving something up.

Sciz/Hippus - target. Maybe not yet, but target. No need to let him know, though. But if we don't get him, he'll get us.

I'm only worried about him if he becomes a runaway from conquest victories. Otherwise I think the lack of economic traits is going to keep a lid on him.

Jkaen/Amurites - ally if possible. Not as firm an ally as Ichabod, but we can't afford too many targets anyway.

As I said earlier, I'm all for someone taking him out before he gets to Sorcery. Although I'm more than happy for it to be someone else.

[Irgy]

Ok, I sent the following to Ichabod, hope it was ok.

[COLOR="Plum"]Greetings!

I was pleased to discover this turn that we have made contact. Your warrior apparently spotted my scout from an ancient tower (as we had contact at the start of the turn) and our scout has now climbed a hill and spotted your warrior in turn. Our scout has been heading predominantly west and somewhat south as well so far, and I can only guess that your warrior has moved roughly east?

We are genuinely pleased to know you will be one of our neighbours. Both Mardoc and I agree that you appear to be a both highly competant and honorable player, and we look forward to developing a strong, friendly and co-operative relationship with you as our neighbour.

So far, we have found the land to be exceptionally dry in all directions. We are curious as to whether you have spotted anything other than desert, plains and tundra so far? We have not, even gazing into the distance as far as the eye can see. We suspect that everyone's start has been similar, and in fact the demographics that we've seen are not inconsistent with the theory that everyone's start is identical, or at least close to identical.

Best Regards,
Irgith Lorda of the Kuriotates[/COLOR]

[Irgy]

Oh and here's a picture to put the comments in the message above into a bit of context.



The dwarves are shown as facing southwest, I'm not sure if this means something? Maybe I was wrong about the tower, they might be heading towards it. I hope not, as that suggests they started even closer to us...

[Mardoc]

Well, if you want to swap Sciz and Jkaen in the target vs. ally categories, on the thought that Jkaen gets stronger over time and Sciz gets weaker, I could get on board with that. I'll admit, I had been discounting the threat of Warcry on the basis of PBEM1, but of course it wasn't really used for war there, just deterrence. On the other hand, if he were to stockpile a bunch of warriors, race for Bronze working, then hit someone with Warcried Warriors - well, that'd be pretty early, and it's hard to see a counter for a bunch of Str 5 2-movers that early in the game.

Seems like a good start with Ichabod; no complaints here. On further thought - his relative strength ought to be more or less constant over time; I don't think there's a particular period in which the Khazad shine or falter. Whatever deviations we see from that will be player skill.

Even more desert - and desert along a river that's not floodplains, at that!

[Mardoc]

All sorts of interesting things appeared when our Ratman climbed to the top of that Ancient Tower. Dwarvish borders, some dyes in the middle of the desert with a New Forest on top, a potential second city site for Ichabod (the dungeon), and the Lanun have both settled and been taken over by the Paranoia Computer.



Looking at the demos, there is a civ with only 5 land tiles, so apparently they did in fact find a lake or ocean to settle on. Hopefully the delay works in our favor here.


Next turn is yours, assuming it arrives after Europe's done for the night.

[Irgy]

So, I've played a few test games. I've attached the saves in case anyone wants to look at them.

First, I ran through whether to tech education or mysticism first. The comparison point was once both had an academy. The results are about what you'd expect. Education first has cottages which are more developed, but lags behind in beakers due to the later Elder Council and Academy. It's also behind in production thanks to a later revolt to God King, although for that it does have one small advantage though that it's running Apprenticeship. On the whole, although the increase in cottage development would eventually catch up a lot of the missing beakers, the flow on effects of being ahead in beakers now make Mysticism first the better choice. Similarly, the extra experience on the units doesn't make up for the production shortfall from delayed God King.

I also played the test game out to T100. The way I played it, on the whole the economy is doing fine, but barbarians have been a real hassle and expansion is definately behind the ball. Based on what I did, and also what I thought were mistakes, I have something of a proposed plan.

Initial tech path:
Ancient Chants -> Mysticism -> Education

Then, the following in some order. All of these I consider fairly essential early techs:
Cash, Exploration, Animal Husbandry, Crafting, Calendar, Writing

* By "Cash" I mean we should save some gold for events that require having some gold on hand. Notable thresholds are 50gp for the good prophet event, and 100gp for a free settler from the immigrants event (this one's less valuable to us though, as we're expansive and making the most of it by working 0 food excess and lots of hammers most of the time). Every time I don't do this I regret it. I don't think it's worth delaying Education for, and obviously God King makes it happen a lot faster, so here is the time to do it.

* Exploration is purely for roads. We'll need some sooner or later, basically by the time we plan to build a new city or settlements.

* Animal Husbandry is just for the cows, and will only actually give us 2 extra hammers over just farming them. If it wasn't also a prerequisite for Horseback Riding I'd seriously consider skipping it.

* Crafting is purely for Tailor and Brewery. We actually have no explicit need to research mining nor bronzeworking, although if we're feeling concerned about early war then we may need to reconsider.

* Calendar is one I regretted leaving too late in the test game. It gives resources, and in particular tailor resources. It also gives Agrarianism, which is bad on plains tiles but still worthwhile (we won't run Aristocracy though). Agrarianism lets us switch every second farm to a cottage. We lose a hammer out of the deal but gain commerce and cottage development in the long run. It also helps us grow rapidly to the next happiness level each time we increase it through connecting resources or tailor/brewery.

* Writing is for building half-price libraries before we lose Philosophical on T71 or so, and is a pre-requisite for Trade.

After this stage, we have our basic economy set up, subject to the need for further expansion. We then have 4 goals to pursue:
* Centaurs, so that we can advance beyond warriors for military protection.
* Founding the Empyrean religion.
* Founding The Order.
* Building the Mercurian Gate.

Three we're racing for, and the other we can't afford to neglect.

I've drawn a Venn Diagram showing the overlap between the techs needed to acheive these goals. The values are all from the wiki and therefore slightly out of whack, but from what I saw in game they're close enough. The green is centaurs, with a special green circle for basic centaurs and the broader circle for chargers. Maybe I should include Mining+Bronze as a military alternative with no overlap? Yellow is Empyrean, Blue Order and Grey the gate.



On the whole, I think we get Empyrean first, with ordinary centaurs along the way. Then Construction for chargers if we need it, and otherwise beeline the gate. We'll likely miss order, losing Valin Phanuel and the shrine, but get dibs on Empyrean for an eventual Chalid. Someone else runing Order is good for us anyway, as it means more angels.

[Irgy]

Message from Ichabod:

[COLOR="Orange"]*Hufpuf*

Ah, hello theare strageer!

Sorrry to keep ya' all waitin' for a properr response. Wee head to send ourr message boys home to tell them some really bad news. You see, one of ourr scout men werre killed just yesterdey, west of hear, and we had to tell the, paps and mas and waefes and such.

The locals we asked said they werre killed by some ghost or giant, or ghost and giant that caeme out of a dungeon or something. This is nonsense, of courrse. We pretty surre that it was the caerps that killed them, since it was nearr the river. Or the elephaents that live in the nearrby jungle, but my bet is on the caerps. Mistforrms, bah, this things don't exist.

You betterr avoiding the west, though, just a piece of advaece.

Our big, mighty and magnificent city of boatmurdered is north of heare. Oh, sorrry, did I say mighty and magnificent? I mean, its small, puny and... hm... unmagnificent. Nothing to see therre. Just dry land, a hill here, another therre. And GOLD! Lots of gold!... No, no, no gold. We don't have no gold.

We would really aprreciate if you don't scout furrther north into ourr city. Nothing to see therre and we.. hm.. we like our prriavacy. No harrd feelings, hope ya underrstand.

Nice meeting ya, but we gotta go now! Gotta head back to town. We fearr the caerps my be travelling north to attack boatmurdered. Gotta avoid that, don't ya think?!

Goodbae![/COLOR]

[Mardoc]

So apparently we didn't manage two cycles of the game yesterday. I'll leave the next one for you regardless of when it come in, then.

I mostly agree with your tech plan, but I do have a change or two to suggest.

First, I honestly think we should prioritize Horseback Riding a little more. It's our first military tech of any sort, and it's a pretty good one - Str 4 and defensive bonuses is probably the minimum strength we need to have a chance against something like a Hippus Warcry warrior rush. Without any plan to pick up Bronze Working, this is our next best chance. It also gives us the option of an emergency rush to Trade or Stirrups.

I would slip it in before Crafting, probably before Exploration and possibly also before Writing, unless we're ready to found a city on a wines or Tailor resource by that time.

I also think we should add in Mining to the second tier list; not so much for the copper, actually, although that's a potential concern, but for our chance at Kilmorph and for the option of running hammer-heavy.

I do agree on your long term priorities, though. Empyrean is a tempting religion for anyone.

What are our options for the Angels' religions? Anything but Ashen Veil (which will be extremely strong on a food-limited map, but I digress). Empyrean and Order we already know the advantages of. OO is likely a bad choice, due to the lack of water. Kilmorph is probably a little weak for that point in the game, although it could be worth running as a secondary choice for the income. Esus is probably in the same boat; it has some potential advantages as a secondary, but I wouldn't want it primary.

Which leaves Leaves, Order, and Empyrean. IF summoned Tigers count as Living for the purposes of making Angels, that could actually be a fairly strong option. I may have to test this theory out. Ancient Forests on plains are 2/2/0 tiles, I think, so farms/mines are probably stronger. Order vs. Empyrean, well, it can wait a while. It's certainly reasonable to plan on spreading both to all three Kurio cities But I'd definitely settle on one of those three, given this map.

Finally, Ichabod - if he really did spawn some Mistforms, he's in trouble. Not sure what we can do about it besides staying away ourselves. And, well, his power was just cut in half last turn, and his warrior's clearly heading home, so I think he's telling the truth. I don't think he actually told us anything else. I suppose I'm happy to leave him his privacy and suffering alone; that should pretty much secure one flank, anyway. Should we bring the Ratman around to scout around the capital, veer south, or what?

[Square Leg]

Ancient Forests on plains are 2/2/0 tiles, I think, so farms/mines are probably stronger.

Nice thread you have going here guys and some interesting conversation! I like it! If you lumbermill all your forests first then convert to FoL they are 2,3,0 which isn't bad - add a commerce to that if next to a river.

[Irgy]

I made a mistake in the Venn Diagram - Code of Laws is a prerequisite for Fanaticism, so there's more overlap between Order and the gate than I thought. I'll change the image in-place, as I don't like having a wrong image sitting there in the post.

This also means Order is less out of the way than I though. I'm seriously considering making it the religion we grab before the gate now instead. The thing it has going for it is Valin Phanuel. We'll lose him if someone else gets the religion. Whereas there's nothing we'll lose other than the shrine if we miss Empyrean, as Chalid requires the expensive tech Religious Laws. Although getting the Empyrean shrine still discourages others from researching Religious Laws to race us to him.

Not much news in-game, I ran the scout away from Khazad lands and so revealed no new tiles. It's going to head south, that desert river is making me quite curious.

It's quite a surprise that Ichabod has popped a dungeon this early (although I do believe him), given his earlier criticism of other people's risky early plays (somewhere in the PBEM4 thread, I can't find it now though or I'd link it). Good for us though, if he gets wiped out early we've got a lot of breathing room, and if he survives he's still likely to be pinned down and busy, giving us a neighbour who's easy to deal with. As long as the darned things don't head our way, worker->granary is looking safer (from human attack at least) by the minute. Which is why I ran the scout away as fast as I could

Horseback Riding before Crafting and Exploration is fine by me. Writing I'd really like to get in time to build a library while it's still half price, and also in time to work two scientists for a few turns and get a second Great Scientist while still getting double gpp.

I'd left mining out partly because I've given up on the Killmorph plan. The hammers for the temple and the lost production from working a priest all that time just aren't worth it. The timing is all wrong too from what I can see.

We can't rush to Trade all that fast, because we still need Construction to build centaur chargers. I'm actually considering just sticking with plain centaurs for quite a while.