Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Meiz]

I'll post a summary of my reasonings for my votes.

Day 1
fire&ice - Completely random (but I admit, I thought MJW and fire&ice as probably the least helpful players).
Lewwyn - Saw three votes against him in a row, so jumped on the bandwagon. Idea was to put pressure and fish information.
Cull - Looked like trying to lay low. I thought MJW as likely villager.

Day 2
Mardoc - Had only "wake up - no content" posts from day 1, seemed like a wolf who tried to create an image of being helpful, without actually adding anything.
No vote after Mardocs theory, which sounded like a villager trying too hard.
Selrach - Uberfish's and Ichabolds arguments against him were valid, and I definitely agreed.
Novice - Paranoia regarding his "attempt to tie us together", which was very odd to me since we were just suspected of being wolves tying together.
Rowain - Paranoia regarding Novice had faded at this point, since Rolands posts regarding the matter made sense. I was still suspecting Selrahc, and saw the opportunity to get two likely wolf candinates on the chopping block. At this point it didn't matter to me which one gets lynched, 50/50 shot for me.

Day 3
Pocketbeetle - Selrahc had voted Rowain instead of PB, and PB's contributions were still very small. I said it then, and I still think that PB only posted content when defending himself. He did not seem to be interested in helping us to find the wolves.
Sandover - Joke vote
Pocketbeetle - Same reasons as before.

Day 4
Zakalwe - Zakalwes votes against F&I and uberfish were really standing out, especially when Selrahc was under suspicion. Lewwyn, novice and Ichabod were already voting him, so I jumped in. At this point I thought Lewwyn as a likely villager, and novice and Ichabod as very certain villagers.
Fire&ice - Rolands theory against him was point on. At this point I was thinking that either Zakalwe or Scooter are wolves, and I thought that lynching F&I would give the answer to Zakalwe's guilt (since he was trying to get votes towards F&I when Selrahc was about to be lynched). I was starting to lean more towards scooter and away from Zakalwe. I also thought that MNG was a likely wolf, so getting F&I and MNG on the chop was fine by me.
Mr. Nice Guy - Some voters of MNG were Novice, Lewwyn and Serdoa (which I trusted at that time), and there had been quite convincing arguments against MNG. Basically I decided to go with the persons I trusted more at that point.

Day 5
Scooter - My suspicions against Scooter had grown stronger. My post regarding him:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124652
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124653
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124693

For laughs, here was my "trusted persons list" at that time, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124666

Later when reading though the thread, I started to suspect that Zakalwe and Jkaen were the masons. I posted a defense posts for Zakalwe:
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124800
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124874

It was then between Zakalwe, Scooter and F&I. I suspected both Scooter and Rowain as wolves, and I was quite sure that Rowain would change his vote away from scooter towards Zakalwe.
I decided to play it safe and vote F&I, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124997

Then I started my crusade against Rowain, since I was sure of him being a wolf, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124997

That never took the wind, so I decided to save Zakalwe (and avoid that he would have to confess to be the mason ), so I voted F&I again, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post125107

Day 6

I failed to get votes against Rowain on previous day, so I continued next day from where I left. I still can't believe he was a villager...

Day 7

My mission is to avoid lynching and give us a chance to win this game. Whatever it takes. For now you don't need to listen to me if you don't want. I'd better just shut up since if I state my suspects, it might just draw suspicion away from them (which might actually be a good thing, given my record so far. Hmm.... )

[zakalwe]

I'm sorry to see Novice gone. On the upside, we now have two confirmed innocents, effectively wielding 3 votes; or actually 4 votes, if we also count on Meiz voting with Ichabod.

Given that Novice and Roland were quite widely trusted, I think they did the right thing not claiming. If they had claimed, the baner might well be dead at this point. Now, he still has a shot at making another save, buying us another lynch, which would be invaluable.

[Roland]

Duh...

I'll try to finish reading all the post the next time, I promise...

Yeah, I mentally wrote off the Selrahc vote because, in light of every other vote across all his days, it's a pretty obvious bid for cover.

I don't know about scooter, Roland. I think he tried to hard to make theories against villagers to be a wolf.

He's last on my list for a reason. I do have my reasons for suspecting him, and they didn't come easy - you'll remember I've been defending him all game long - but they came to me over the past couple days doing the records. I'll see if I can dig it up tonight.

I still think Zakalwe might be the last wolf. He has been near the gallows some times now and it never seems to get support. I'll take a better look at the voting charts later to see if I can confirm this...

Two things:
1) Do you believe Bruindane knowing threw a 'Wolf on the block during Day 1, despite every vote he cast - with exception to Selrahc - being a Villager?
2) Every time zakalwe has been on the block, another Villager has taken his place. Is it not equally possible he's a Villager, and the 'Wolves weren't picky about who to lynch?

I saw a theory that fit the data. It's not concrete, and human beings are open to randomness and chaos, but it makes the most sense. The only time I see Bruindane voting for a 'Wolf was Selrahc - when it was too good an opportunity for cover to pass up. I would have done the same thing, personally - without hesitation.

Let me pose another scenario to you: if Lewwyn turns out to be a 'Wolf, that will be the 2nd 'Wolf scooter pegged on Day 1. How lucky do you think he is to have nailed 2 'Wolves on Day 1, AND to have voted for Selrahc BEFORE his fate was sealed? I don't have the records laid out in front of me at the moment (although I do have access to them - it just takes time to put them onto the forum), so I'm going from memory, but that's what stood out. Lewwyn, to me, is an obvious 'Wolf. IF that theory pans out, it bumps scooter up significantly - if my memory is correct.

As I said, look at the names, then color some in. See what fits. It's far from concrete, but from what I saw last night it looks to me like scooter was trying to shoot for an early vote of trust by putting a 'Wolf on the block, even if it didn't gain traction. Far-fetched? Maybe, but no more so than anything else we've tried.

[Meiz]

Then I started my crusade against Rowain, since I was sure of him being a wolf, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post124997

Sorry, correct url: http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post125041

[Mardoc]

Day 1 and 3 are good proof of Lewwyn's guilt. See how the votes change in day 1 when Lewwyn starts getting near the top. And Bruindane last vote on PB, sealing the deal on day 3 when Lewwyn started getting near the gallows (curiously the same Bruindane who said PB was probably innocent).

Are we looking at the same evidence? I think I can see what you're talking about Day 1, but Day 3, when Bruindane voted PB, the rolls were

6v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Roland, Meiz, Irgy, Lewwyn, Bruindane )
4v: Rowain ( novice, pocketbeetle, Serdoa, Mardoc )
3v: Jkaen ( fire&ice, Mr. Nice Guy, scooter )
2v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Jkaen, Sandover )

At least according to Roland, who's essentially been confirmed from beyond the grave as villager.

[Ichabod]

Two things:
1) Do you believe Bruindane knowing threw a 'Wolf on the block during Day 1, despite every vote he cast - with exception to Selrahc - being a Villager?

Yeah, it makes sense. But it was a joke RP post, not sure what it could mean.

Also, the same thing can be asked regarding Meiz. Why would Bruindane and Selrahc vote for Meiz on day 1 (mayor vote)? It's very strange, indeed. But Meiz is too wolfish, anyway...

The thing is: we need to confirm Lewwyn as a wolf, than we'll have a whole day to analyse the situation with another confirmed role. Making any conclusions now is not the best way of handling it. We will be making assumptions with less information than we could get by waiting a bit.

[Ichabod]

Are we looking at the same evidence? I think I can see what you're talking about Day 1, but Day 3, when Bruindane voted PB, the rolls were


At least according to Roland, who's essentially been confirmed from beyond the grave as villager.

This is wrong. Lewwyn had 4 votes, not Rowain.

[Mardoc]

This is wrong. Lewwyn had 4 votes, not Rowain.

Isn't this the post where Bruindane voted?
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....count=1042

I looked at the nearby tallies, and they definitely have Rowain. For that matter, I know my vote was for Rowain, since that was the weekend I was afk.

[Ichabod]

7v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Roland, Meiz, Irgy, Lewwyn, Sandover, Bruindane )
4v: Lewwyn ( Gold Ergo Sum, Novice , Pocketbeetle, Serdoa)
3v: Jkaen ( Fire&Ice, Mr. Nice Guy, scooter )
2v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Zakalwe, JKaen, )
1v: Rowain ( Mardoc)
1v: Ichabod ( Ichabod )

This is the final tally from day 3. Bruindane voted PB, switched to Rowain and when the final Lewwyn bandwagin started, he switched to PB again (last vote of the day, actually).

[Ichabod]

Where have you been?? He wouldn't leave me alone for the longest time.
Meiz

Sounds to me like a desperate try to distance yourselves.

Roland, your theory seems to make sense. I hope you are right, my friend... I really hope you are right...