Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Lewwyn]

Caught a break, so I wanted to post something else quick as well. I'm pretty much doomed at this point unless I can convince 5 other villagers to vote for GES (if GES is a wolf). Of course if I'm wrong we lose even faster because no one will stay my execution a second time and that'll be the end of the game.

Still, the only way we as a village make it out is if I'm right and people follow or if someone else puts forth a viable suspect. Or if Roland is just playing and is looking to try and trap some other wolves but I doubt that somehow.

I also say I need at least 5 villagers to follow me on GES because if we tie at 5v5 then Roland auto kills me as mayor. Basically this game hinges on me A) convincing you of my innocence and B) being correct about GES. Given people's opinion of me, I wouldn't bet money on me, those are some long odds.

[Serdoa]

You know Lewwyn, you should start to get to the part where you deliver arguments and reason why you are not a wolf. Till now all I can find is stuff explaining that you are indeed acting wolfish but that you took that upon you for the greater good and about how bad our chances are if we lynch you. That is maybe good enough to sway Roland away from you because he might fear to be wrong but I think the only other players you can sway with that are the actual wolves.

You offered other possibilities what happened on Day1, how to interpret it. But really, we can't know it. Is that enough for reasonable doubt? Sure it is - but that doesn't mean that we have any other target with more evidence against it (Jkaen is in my eyes a wolf but I have not worked out the evidence against him as clearly as Roland did in your case). So, there is no reason to change the votes. If you are indeed a villager, then you have lost the whole village this game simply by refusing to play for the win of the village but instead played for your self-imposed win-condition. Thats ok from my point of view, after all this is about having fun, but one can hardly blame the village for lynching villagers which play like wolves.

[scooter]

I don't know, I've felt ok about Lewwyn for the most part this game. I'm also leery of a situation where pretty much the whole dang village is unanimous on Lewwyn. Think about it, that means there MUST be a minimum of one wolf who is voting for Lewwyn right now. Either they are totally cool with sacrificing him, or we've got the wrong guy.

Gold Ergo Sum has bugged me in the back of my mind for quite some time, as he has remained overly quiet for as long as I can remember. It's one of those things where you can tell the difference between someone who seriously is just never around (Cull) and someone who is making a conscious effort to fly under the radar. I could go on, but Lewwyn did a very nice job of outlining the evidence. No one seems willing to lynch Meiz, so I will join Lewwyn and vote for Gold Ergo Sum. I know I am a villager, and so is Roland and Ichabod... To me, the next most likely villager is Lewwyn, so that is why I just will not vote for him. And again, the overwhelming consensus doesn't sit well with me... where everyone is thrilled to quickly vote for Lewwyn. It's not very typical honestly, so I'm leery of it.

[Serdoa]

scooter, so you wonder why the wolves don't come to defend Lewwyn right away if he is a wolf but instead vote for him? Well, maybe because if we still lynch Lewwyn and he is a wolf it would be too obvious who else is a wolf?

And hey, after some time, you did finally come, didn't you?

[scooter]

scooter, so you wonder why the wolves don't come to defend Lewwyn right away if he is a wolf but instead vote for him? Well, maybe because if we still lynch Lewwyn and he is a wolf it would be too obvious who else is a wolf?

It's not that I wonder why they wouldn't come to defend him - they wouldn't be so stupid as to do that. It's more that I believe they'd be more hesitant - withholding their votes a bit longer to see if any other suspects caught on. All those Lewwyn votes happened nearly instantly. And that's not the only reason I'm hesitant - the other is that I just don't believe Lewwyn is a werewolf.

And hey, after some time, you did finally come, didn't you?

Honestly, I've gotten pretty burnt out during this game, so last night I just took a break from it. I probably will pass on the next one just to take a break from it all. I played my first game as a wolf, so that was pretty fun overall. Playing as a villager now though, it's a totally different perspective... Even just that I can't take one night off (in the first half of our 48 hours!) without someone raising their eyebrows - that's why I'm kind of burnt out right now. I mostly avoided the thread last night for that reason, and I caught up this morning and read it in one sitting, which helped a lot too.

[Lewwyn]

You know Lewwyn, you should start to get to the part where you deliver arguments and reason why you are not a wolf. Till now all I can find is stuff explaining that you are indeed acting wolfish but that you took that upon you for the greater good and about how bad our chances are if we lynch you. That is maybe good enough to sway Roland away from you because he might fear to be wrong but I think the only other players you can sway with that are the actual wolves.

I'm not really sure what you want me to say Serdoa. I'm not a wolf because I didn't vote to lynch F&I? I'm not a wolf because I lynched MJW with both Irgy and Bob who were the seer and fool? I'm not a wolf because a wolf wouldn't do the things I've done? Here's the deal Serdoa, there is no proof. I am simply telling you my intentions. I'm telling you I'm a villager. I'm telling you I can't be a wolf because my name is Lewwyn and there are no wolves named Lewwyn this game. The only proof is my death. That is the only way to be 100% sure. So if you like your odds you're going to lynch me.

And I do think that I've played for the village at almost every turn... I defended myself vigorously on Day 1 when there was pressure on me. I believed PB to be a wolf and made probably the only real logical argument against him. So yeah take that for example. I was a vocal proponent of lynching PB. At the time I wholeheartedly believed Rowain a villager. I was nearly as invested as Roland and Rowain. I've explained nearly every lynch. I've explained nearly every action I've taken. No action is safe Serdoa. I can easily interpret your actions to be wolfish right now. You are twisting my posts and denying the case I've already laid out. You're not really paying attention to the fact that my argument is that Roland's case IS circumstantial and based on his emotions.

Look I have actively searched for wolves, I have actively worked to make things clear. I have actively tried to figure things out and actually put my opinion out there. What have YOU done Serdoa. Where's the argument that you're not a wolf trying to push me down and get people to dismiss what I wrote this afternoon? How do we know that your obliviousness to everyone's reasoning isn't selective ignorance? Seriously, the endgame is upon us. I'm still trying my best. I don't know what more you want.

But I'll keep giving until I die and prove my innocence with my death.

[Meiz]

Day 1 - Turn 83:
Lynch
8v: MJW (ya that one) ( Serdoa, Selrahc, Bobchillingworth, Cull, Mr. Nice Guy, Jkaen, Irgy, Lewwyn )
7v: Cull ( Meiz, Cull, uberfish, Sandover, Mardoc, scooter, novice )
3v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Bruindane, zakalwe )
3v: Lewwyn ( Ichabod, MJW (ya that one), fire&ice )
1v: novice ( pocketbeetle )
1v: Sandover ( Gold Ergo Sum )

Mayor
10v: novice ( Bobchillingworth, zakalwe, novice, Roland, Gold Ergo Sum, MJW (ya that one), Cull, Mr. Nice Guy, Serdoa, Mardoc )
7v: Rowain ( Ichabod, scooter, Rowain, Bruindane, uberfish, Sandover, Meiz )
1v: Meiz ( Selrahc )
1v: fire&ice ( Jkaen )
1v: Ichabod ( pocketbeetle )
1v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Irgy )
1v: Jkaen ( Lewwyn )
1v: Bruindane ( fire&ice )

How many 'Wolves do you think they'd let on a single target? 2? 3 tops? Lewwyn voted for MJW (ya that one), and Selrahc followed it up with the 3rd vote on him (Serdoa was inbetwee). All 3 of them had the same reasons - MJW (ya that one) was too much of a bother to play with, and granted too much cover to other 'Wolves (including himself, if he was a 'Wolf). Now, with Lewwyn dropping off halfway through the day it gets a little iffy, as it does give an opening for at least 1 more 'Wolf (the only one I can think of would be Jkaen, but I'm still unconvinced, so roll with me here). At the last minute Lewwyn switches back to MJW (ya that one) - exactly what he set out to do from before the game even started. So, out of Serdoa, Jkaen, and Lewwyn who do you think is the most likely 'Wolf (or 'Wolves)? TO me, it's Lewwyn - and not Jkaen.

Now step down to runner-up Cull. We have Meiz, Mardoc, and scooter as the potentials, since both novice and I voted for Cull. Out of those three, who do you feel is the most 'Wolfish? At least one of them has to be a 'Wolf, and more probably two. It'd be highly suspect to have all three on the same target, especially with it coming down to a tie between MJW (ya that one) and Cull - novice would be the tie-breaker, as Mayor. So, at most I can see two 'Wolves on Cull. Given everything else we know, I'd lean towards Meiz and scooter, supported by the other evidence we have (or will have, as things progress).

We know no 'Wolves voted for Lewwyn nor novice, and with zakalwe being a probable Villager that would leave Bruindane as the sole 'Wolf on pocketbeetle. Gold Ergo Sum is still an unknown at this point, but with Lewwyn shooting off at the buzzer today I'm more inclined to think him innocent than I was before.

I think it's also worth noting that the only days scooter voted alongside either Meiz or Lewwyn were Day 1 (Meiz), and Day 6 (Meiz & Lewwyn).

First of all, this is a very helpful post, so thanks for the effort Roland. I have similiar lists of my own in notepad, but putting color to them really makes things easier to see

I think for day 1, there were so many options that I really doubt we will find three wolves voting for one person. I seriously doubt there were two wolves voting for PB.

Regarding mayor vote, I do know that the wolves did not wan't a wolf voter (two wolves voting for me and most votes ending up finally on Rowain and Novice. Let me ask you, if I was a wolf, why would Selrahc leave his mayor vote for me? That would only get two wolves to stand out clearly from others. Do you honestly think it's just some sort of reverse psychology?


Day 2:
9v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish, Irgy, Bruindane, Gold ergo sum, scooter, Roland, novice, sandover )
6v: Rowain (Pocketbeetle, Meiz, Selrahc, zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen )
5v: Pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull )
1v: novice ( Mr Nice Guy )

If GES and Scooter would be wolves, it would mean that there were three wolves voting against Selrahc in a row. It's possible, but I have my doubts. This puts me little away from suspecting both GES and scooter (I think one of them probably is a wolf). I think it's likely that both Rowain and PB had wolf voters.

Day 3:
7v: pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Roland, Meiz, Irgy, Lewwyn, Sandover, Bruindane )
4v: Lewwyn ( Gold Ergo Sum, Novice , Pocketbeetle, Serdoa)
3v: Jkaen ( Fire&Ice, Mr. Nice Guy, scooter )
2v: Mr. Nice Guy ( Zakalwe, JKaen, )
1v: Rowain ( Mardoc)
1v: Ichabod (Ichabod)

Day 4:
9v: Mr. Nice Guy (f&i, Jkaen, Zakalwe, novice, Lewwyn, Serdoa, Irgy, Meiz, Mardoc)
6v: fire&ice ( Roland, Mr. Nice Guy, scooter, Gold ergo sum, Rowain, Ichabod )

Day 5:
5v: fire&ice ( zakalwe, Jkaen, Gold Ergo Sum, Meiz, Roland)
4v: scooter ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Serdoa, novice )
3v: zakalwe ( scooter, Mardoc, Ichabod )

Day 6:
7v: Rowain ( Meiz, JKaen, Mardoc, Zakalwe, Scooter, Ichabod, Lewwyn )
3v: JKaen ( Serdoa, Gold Ergo Sum, Roland )
2v: Scooter ( Novice, Rowain )

I hope this list helps to visualize possible wolf voting pattern better.

For that matter, how does anyone feel? Discussion is still vital, even at this critical stage - perhaps more now than ever. It would be unwise to hang all our bets on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of one man - and I'm far from having a perfect, or even good, voting record. I'm not losing my spine against Lewwyn - I just don't want people to shrink away from posting their own thoughts.

Roland, you know that people will likely follow you, since you put countless of hours for finding this info and you are a confirmed villager. So you need to seriously reconsider my position as a "80% likely wolf". I know it's much to ask, but read through my posts and think if I really could pull this kind of wolf stunt? I know for sure that I'm not capable of doing it.

[Meiz]

the wolves did not wan't a wolf voter

Wolf mayor I mean.

Day 6:
7v: Rowain ( Meiz, JKaen, Mardoc, Zakalwe, Scooter, Ichabod, Lewwyn )
3v: JKaen ( Serdoa, Gold Ergo Sum, Roland )
2v: Scooter ( Novice, Rowain )

Day 6 is sticking to my eye. Either all wolves voted for one target, or Serdoa / GES is a wolf. I'm leaning heavily towards GES.

[Mardoc]

Regarding mayor vote, I do know that the wolves did not wan't a wolf voter (two wolves voting for me and most votes ending up finally on Rowain and Novice. Let me ask you, if I was a wolf, why would Selrahc leave his mayor vote for me? That would only get two wolves to stand out clearly from others. Do you honestly think it's just some sort of reverse psychology?

Well, Meiz, since I'm more confident in you being a wolf than in Lewwyn, maybe I should answer some of these.

I do think that they wanted a wolf mayor - you! It's just that novice's bandwagon got off the ground more easily, so you had to give up on that idea.

Why would Selrahc leave his vote? Because he didn't want to switch around a lot and call attention to himself. Selrahc, I believe, voted once and only once Day 1. In retrospect, I'm amazed we got him that early, but Day 1, why wouldn't he want to keep a low profile? The fact his vote was left on you was unfortunate, but really would only cause suspicion on you if he was caught first. And, frankly, still wouldn't have caused suspicion on you if Roland hadn't organized the data so that I saw Bruindane also voting for you, at a point in time where you were tied for the lead.

Day 2:
9v: Selrahc ( Ichabod, uberfish, Irgy, Bruindane, Gold ergo sum, scooter, Roland, novice, sandover )
6v: Rowain (Pocketbeetle, Meiz, Selrahc, zakalwe, Serdoa, JKaen )
5v: Pocketbeetle ( Rowain, Lewwyn, Mardoc, Fire & Ice, Cull )
1v: novice ( Mr Nice Guy )

If GES and Scooter would be wolves, it would mean that there were three wolves voting against Selrahc in a row. It's possible, but I have my doubts. This puts me little away from suspecting both GES and scooter (I think one of them probably is a wolf). I think it's likely that both Rowain and PB had wolf voters.

You raise a good point here that at least one is innocent, but I think it's even stronger and they're both innocent. The day was so close, why would the wolves want any voters on Selrahc they didn't need? At the very least, if they're both wolves, then they killed Selrahc for cover, since if they'd voted elsewhere he wouldn't have died. But why do it in such an obvious fashion?

I know it's much to ask, but read through my posts and think if I really could pull this kind of wolf stunt? I know for sure that I'm not capable of doing it.

I have the utmost respect for your skills, Meiz. If novice hadn't been able to prove Roland a mason from after death, I'd have easily been convinced you were the second mason. Frankly, I think you're too good at this to be a consistently wrong as you've turned out to be without being on the other side.

I now know why Roland and novice were able to see the holes in my 5 wolves theory so quickly; I think I know why you were able to as well.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

He address that he will always be suspicious, and yes he will. But do you not think there is a possibility here that the regularity of his posts the nature of the way he checks in. Just pops in for a comment at a time is not suspicious? I believe it when he says he doesn't have as much time as I said before, but how can we not know he is using it to mask?

The truth is, you cannot "know." Without a seer, none of us can know about anyone other than Roland and Ichabod for sure. But if I was a wolf, I am fairly certain I would've tried a lot harder to "appear" helpful. Attention is anathema to a wolf, and numerous others have came under suspicious this game for being too quiet.

Lets look at the posts that he has written. I will show any post with content and keep a tally of posts that are apologies, sidesteps, excuses and overall blatantly passing the buck. I want also to say that I do not believe that GES would have given this game as short a shrift as he SEEMS to have given this game if he were a villager. Everything I've seen from him screams responsibility and commitment. I believe that half of his apologies are TRUE apologies because he feels bad he is restraining himself from participating in order to stay under the radar. This is why his apologies feel so genuine, because they are.

Like I said, not sure what else I can do other than post a work calendar to get you out of this mindset. I'm married. I work a 55-60 hour per week job. I volunteer as a CASA. I have other hobbies I am interested in. I admin RBP4 and play in PBEM11. Nearly every post apologizes because I feel bad that I haven't been more helpful, and by the time I make it back to the thread, there are 100-300 posts of insight and all I have to add is basically, "wow, you guys had time to come up with interesting stuff."

You're not really paying attention to the fact that my argument is that Roland's case IS circumstantial and based on his emotions.

Ironic much?

Still its interesting to me. I have no idea if GES is a wolf or not, but he's still suspicious to me. He's playing the misunderstood villager perfectly. The I can only do so much. His list nearly matches up with mine and its screwing with my head again. I just can't get over how perfect a cover and how under the radar he has been.

I don't know whether Lewwyn is a villager who honestly believes I am guilty, or a wolf trying to save his own neck. I suppose, irregardless of solid arguments against him, he is more likely to be a wolf than not just because he is accusing me. And a wolf would want to throw suspicion on a villager with almost none on him. It increases the chances that the next lynch will be a villager lynch.

Still, I am still torn on my vote. I think other people are more likely to be wolves than Lewwyn--although I certainly wouldn't put him on my likely villagers like I did yesterday morning. But if it is going to come down to a run off between Lewwyn and myself, I am not going to let the village move to the brink of loss by letting myself get lynched. If a bandwagon starts up on any of my "likely wolves," I will gladly join it. Right now, though, given the current dichotomy, I don't see how I can vote for anyone other than:

Lewwyn