Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Meiz]

Scooter

[Mardoc]

Well, I think my position is clear: Meiz

I'm torn between scooter and Jkaen as a third choice; Jkaen fits better with Lewwyn/Meiz, scooter's more suspicious on his own.

[Mardoc]

I'm also probably the worst track record so far, though.

And Meiz, I apologize for taking this a tad too seriously

[Serdoa]

No Mardoc, you haven't. Give me 10 minutes more, I prepared a table with all votes from Day 1 to Day 6 color-coded blue and orange for villagers, wolves. In red ink the names of the finally lynched one. Interesting stuff if you look at it - some things we knowed (Meiz, zakalwe, Jkaen voting pretty much since Day 3 together), others I feel we did not or at least I either have overread it or it wasn't really mentioned.

Lewwyn, Meiz

Not so sure on the third (yeah, unbelievable, Jkaen doesn't make it on my list, I explain that when I put my table up).

[Serdoa]

Thats the table I mentioned in the post before



As you can see, all who have died till now are below the horizontal red line. Those are listed from bottom to top in the same order as they got lynched / killed (if I didn't get it wrong). Reason is simply that it is easier and nicer to look at.

As for the listing itselfs:

Worst voting record: Meiz tied with Jkaen - voting always for villagers and being 4 out of 6 times involved in the lynch.

Best voting record: GES tied with scooter. Voted only 3 times for known villagers, were only once involved in a villager lynch and involved in our only WW-lynch.

Now, what do I see in that, that I finally am not so sure about Jkaen anymore? Well, I looked at patterns. Who votes with whom and stuff. What do we see:

- It is obvious (and was mentioned already) that zakalwe and Jkaen vote together since Day 2. Meiz votes with them from Day 2 through Day 6 - with one exception: Day 3. The day Lewwyn got saved.

- Not as obvious and not pointed out till now (I believe): Lewwyn and Meiz voting together on Day 3, Day 5, Day 6.

For me, the later days count more because the chances are getting higher that we do catch a wolf. Therefore those have to start voting together more to push in the right direction. But apart from that, try to find other people voting together in the last 4 days 3 times. I couldn't but maybe I overlooked something?

Why do I now suspect Lewwyn and Meiz? Because of how they voted together and since when. And I believe that either zakalwe or Jkaen are the third wolf, but I am not sure which one. Though right now that is my feeling.

But please draw your own conclusions. I just provided mine as explanation why I suspect Lewwyn and Meiz but I would love to hear what others think. It is very easy to get blinded by the table, so maybe I interpret too much into it? Maybe I overlooked important stuff?

Btw: I obviously left Ichabod and Roland out because we know they are villagers.

[Lewwyn]

It's 2:30 and I can't sleep, my wife kicked me out of bed. I don't think I'll sleep until I get this out because I'm so worked up. I'm going to try to address all the arguments against me. Let me know if I'm missing any and please excuse if I mix up who's accusing me of what, some of you are using similar arguments. I'm doing this all from memory, my glasses are in the other room so I can barely read and I'm not checking up to make sure:

Roland:
1) Lewwyn "fits" when you randomly play with the names on the voting tables.

Rebuttal: This is basically playing, what looks good, what's aesthetically pleasing... There's no basis beyond I voted where Roland thinks a wolf should have voted.

2) Lewwyn is the last unknown of six on the block on Day 1 and statistically speaking we should have gotten at least one wolf up there.

Rebuttal: Same as before. Its random luck. Villagers are taking shots in the dark. Wolves are putting up villagers. I don' know the math but this is a bit of a ridiculous argument.

3) Lewwyn fits the pattern allowing Scooter to be a wolf if Lewwyn is a wolf.

Rebuttal: I dig looking for patterns, but in this case you're trying to make the pieces fit while the wolves are trying their utmost to make sure they don't...

Roland has also echoed some of the arguments below.

Ichabod:

3) Lewwyn was saved by Bruindane switching on Day 3

Rebuttal: You're right I didn't address this. Mostly because I was skimming the arguments against me before and this one slipped. I was more focused on making a case against GES with my limited time this afternoon so I did not go back and fully read all the arguments as I should have.

In answer though, there's not really a defense against this is there? I mean seriously what am I supposed to say? He's a wolf he made a switch and I have no idea why he did it. It's causing me a ton of problems though. BTW Ichabod, you switched, YOU saved me. What does that say about me?

Mardoc:

4)Lewwyn makes a post when he's on the block pleading that after he dies you investigate his suspect list.

Rebuttal: Ichabod also commented on this saying it was a good pot, maybe I overplayed my hand and whatnot. Well guess what. It was a ploy, I was planning on using it if I ever got to close to the block. Seriously, I planned that since WW2. Thing is you can only use it once and I blew my load on day 3 when all of a sudden I didn't need it. I was a little pissed about that. Still, I only did it as an innocent.

Serdoa:

5) Lewwyn voted with Meiz and is the only pair that voted together, plus Meiz saved him on Day 3.

Rebuttal: I don't really look at who I'm voting with much. I usually just play it by who I'm feeling that day. So I have no real idea of who I voted with. If this sounds irresponsible maybe it is, but again I can only say it fits my playing style. Seat of my pants and all that.




Did I get everything? Please post things I'm missing so I can address them again. I didn't have enough time this afternoon to defend and present a case. I believe I will have more time tomorrow.

To be clear, I'm doing this for the village. I would love for Roland to eat crow, but at this point I would need to sacrifice myself to do it. That would put the villagers in a no mistake situation and I feel an obligation to play this game to the best of my abilities for the other villagers. I do not want to torpedo their game just for my satisfaction. Besides in the end even after I've given my best I may still be lynched, at that point I'll still get to watch Roland eat his heart out after his "100% wolf suspect" turns out to be 100% villager.

[Jkaen]

Right now after Lewwyn I would probably guess Meiz.

And Lewwyn its not just Roland who thinks you are a wolf, you have been on a number of peoples lists for a while

[Meiz]

I'm going to shoot myself again in the leg, but I've always seen Lewwyn as a villager and still do. I just hope you are right on this one...

[Mardoc]

Well, I suppose my point was more of a support for Ichabod's Bruindane point than anything in particular. I had been skeptical up until I saw that, that according to the numbers you were never in danger Day 3, but that reminded me just how much happened at the last minute. And that you were actually in danger, even if it didn't actually materialize.

But really, the bulk of my suspicion of you is coming from elimination. In my mind, we're down to:[COLOR="Blue"]
Roland - innocent
Ichabod - innocent
me - innocent
[/COLOR][COLOR="RoyalBlue"]
GES - probably innocent
Serdoa - probably innocent[/COLOR][COLOR="LightBlue"]
zakalwe - ?
Scooter - ?[/COLOR][COLOR="Wheat"]
Jkaen - seems guilty, probably
Lewwyn - seems kinda guilty, had a few lucky breaks that wolves helped arrange[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]
Meiz - guilty, guilty, why does no one else see this (or am I repeating Day 2?)[/COLOR]

Oh, and a last point that isn't likely to convince anyone else unless I convince them of Meiz first - you defended Meiz.

So essentially I have 4 people I think might be wolves (plus Meiz), you're one of them, and you're the one that provokes other people's suspicions as well in case I can't trust my own judgment.

[Roland]

Roland: scooter
Meiz: scooter
Mardoc: Meiz
Serdoa: Lewwyn, Meiz - is Jkaen still your primary? If not, I'll assume both are 50/50 (Lewwyn versus Meiz).
Jkaen: Meiz

Still waiting on: Gold Ergo Sum, Ichabod, Lewwyn, scooter, zakalwe

Remember, this is an informal tally of your 2nd choice for a lynch, not the lynch vote you've already cast.