[SPOILERS] Werewolf 3 Lurker Thread

[Selrahc]

With three wolves left and only six people total around in the village, haven't the wolves won the game now?

8 people left.
Roland, Ichabod, Scooter, Serdoa, Meiz, Jkaen, Zakalwe. Gold Ergo Sum.
1 wrong lynch away from the end of the game. However, 2 of the remaining 8 are universally trusted, so the villagers have to pick from six lynch candidates.

EDITed numbers.

[Erick the Red]

It's unfortunate for the village that there are an even number of people left heading into the endgame. Right now there are 2 verified villagers. I'm inclined to believe GES is not a wolf after the cross post about the baner. If there were 7 people left it would just be a matter of picking out the one innocent out of 4 remaining and there would still be a reasonable chance. As it is picking 2 out of 5 is a lot harder.

I tentatively see Scooter and Serdoa as wolves. This is partly because they have both seemed needlessly argumentative to me quite often, but that's a rather bad indicator in an RB game. I'm not sure why so many people seem set on Jkaen.

[xenin]

random lurker post: GES is missing from sareln's most recent list of remaining players in the game thread

[Sareln]

random lurker post: GES is missing from sareln's most recent list of remaining players in the game thread

Thanks Xenin, should be fixed now.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Thanks Xenin, should be fixed now.

GES may have been the wolfs first target but then they changed targets and you forgot to take his name back.

Anyway the baner save will not hurt the village until the last possible day when the villagers have to pick 1 out 4 instead 1 out of 3.

[Sareln]

GES may have been the wolfs first target but then they changed targets and you forgot to take his name back.

Anyway the baner save will not hurt the village until the last possible day when the villagers have to pick 1 out 4 instead 1 out of 3.

More likely his name follows Mardoc's in the list and working on a phone is tricky :P

[Kyan]

GES may have been the wolfs first target but then they changed targets and you forgot to take his name back.

You're nuts. You even try to find strange metagame reasons why the game admin is a wolf

[Irgy]

Well, that's that. Best of luck, villagers, and I'll see you over in the lurker thread.

Thanks for the writeup and the GMing, Sareln!

Well, let me be the first to say:

Best baner so far!

Getting one block in before you die is definately better than average. Better baner than I was a fool anyway, they were on to me a long time before they caught you.

[Mardoc]

Thanks novice.

Funny thing. I thought about Baner claiming. Like at the end. I was only going to do it if I couldn't turn Roland. But my thought process was, "If I claim and I survive and we lynch a wolf then I hope during the night the wolves kill me. Win win for the village. Get a wolf distract the wolves, rid the village of a distraction and save the real baner another night"

This is all assuming that the real baner wouldn't reveal or press too hard for my lynch. In the end I would have only used it as a last resort. You have to think about the fact that if I'm lynched we're in spot where we're a step from losing anyway. Why not go for broke. Dunno. Would you lynch a person who claimed baner?

Well, I still would have . Honestly, toward the end there I was strongly tempted to claim Baner anyway just to have more info in the thread, since there apparently wasn't any. I didn't see GES's post until just now, but I probably would have claimed today anyway if the wolves didn't make that a moot point. I figured that they'd simply void me for the rest of the game but not actually kill me, given my track record; I suppose it's somewhat of a complement to be night-killed instead of lynched . I gotta say, Team Werewolf is definitely impressing me this game.

Even though I needed only one more save to get us an extra mislynch, I meant it sincerely when I said that all a Baner can do is delay the inevitable; I'd have gladly given up my role and power for a correct lynch. Of course, it appears that wouldn't have been enough anyway to get us a correct lynch.

I'm glad I was able to surprise some of you toward the end that I was the Baner.

For posterity's sake, since it doesn't matter anymore (and it only reflects my beliefs at the time, anyway, not any actual knowledge), here's who I protected each night, to the best of my memory:

1. Mardoc - I knew nothing, and figured if I was lucky, the wolves would split void wolf and kill. I felt really stupid when someone pointed out Bob's seer strategy post.
   
2. novice - I figured he just had to be a villager after he killed Selrahc
   
3. Gold Ergo Sum - he defended the Baner publicly, I hoped the wolves would take that as an admission and attempt to kill him. Boy will my face be red if he's a wolf.
   
4. not sure - novice? Sareln might correct me. I was back to knowing nothing, so took a stab in the dark.
   
5. Ichabod. This was the only one that was more than a guess; I thought it through as a wolf, who would I kill, and Ichabod seemed like a good target; correct on Selrahc, fairly quiet, fairly unsuspected. A question for you, Sareln - did the wolves already know Ichabod wasn't the baner by using the void wolf on him? Or did they only learn it from your writeup? If the latter, it seems mildly unfair to me, but if the former, then it doesn't matter.
   
6. Roland; figured he was being so helpful that the wolves were bound to try to silence him. I seem to have trusted his judgment too much, though.
   
7. Mardoc (in hopes that the wolves were splitting the void wolf and the kill) At the moment, anyway, I don't think the wolves actually thought I was the Baner, necessarily, but I had managed to get myself to trusted status with Roland and Ichabod, so I had to go anyway. Perhaps if they win tonight they'll let me know if I am right on this, or if I gave myself away by being too conspicuous staying out of most of the Baner strategy/critique posts, or something else.
   

I might be wrong on a couple of those toward the middle, since I really had no idea what I should be doing or who to trust, so they were pretty near to dicerolls for me.

I've got to say, novice, with just three words you transformed yourself in my eyes from clearly village to likely wolf: "Worst Baner Ever". Mostly because I was halfway to typing up a rebuttal before I realized just how stupid that would be .

Next time, the Baner definitely needs to think more like a wolf and less like a villager; I spent most of my brainpower looking for wolves when I should have spent it looking for helpful, unobtrusive villagers and signs of power roles. When I did that was the one night that I succeeded.

And Irgy - Thanks!

Now I'm off to read the rest of the lurker thread and see if you guys, not being invested, had any better idea what was going on than I did

[Mardoc]

By the way, did anyone here at least actually follow my argument for why late-reveals are (except for the mason issue) strictly better than early?

There's plenty of potential counter-arguments for why revealing early might have other benefits, and I don't mind people disagreeing, but when basically all the comments I see (even those that ostensibly agree with me) appear to have completely failed to grasp the point I was making I start to become genuinely concerned about my ability to communicate.

Irgy, I did follow your argument, although I ended up disagreeing due to the greater consideration of people knowing more means more likely to catch a wolf due to not wasting brainpower on theories that turn out to be impossible to be true. That assumes, though, that there's enough friendly brainpower and trust, which in retrospect may have been a mistake to assume. And, well, I also disagreed as a smidgen of self-preservation - if I think the power roles should reveal, and yet I don't, clearly I'm not one. .

I think that aspect of doublethinking everything you say is what really puts me off from playing Werewolf again, though. Half my arguments, and a third of my votes, were calculated just to deflect suspicion from me rather than to honestly point out a wolf or argue what I truly believed. That's the real reason I joined in on Lewwyn, for instance; I convinced myself that Baner was more valuable than villager, and I needed to get myself to trusted status. Otherwise I'd have stuck on Meiz. Plus, well, there was that outside chance that Lewwyn really was guilty.

If GES turns out to be a wolf, according to the majority suspicion here, then I've got to applaud your drunk post! Either you can still lie through your teeth while drunk, or you can fake drunk impeccably well; that post alone is what promoted you in my mind from suspicious to nearly confirmed innocent, and if I'm wrong, then

Still, all in all it's reassuring that Team Lurker doesn't completely know what's happening either. . Well, except for Selrahc and Sareln, of course.