Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[zakalwe]

To me, it's starting to feel a bit weird trying to actually discuss things openly, since I can only trust two of you, and the majority of the others must be wolves. Nevertheless, I do have some thoughts here that I would like to discuss, so let's give it a shot.

So here's what I'm asking myself currently. Why was Mardoc killed? Obviously the wolves wanted to kill the baner; but why did they think Mardoc was the baner? In fact, it seems to me that they must have been fairly confident that Mardoc was the baner, or they would have targeted one of the confirmed innocents instead.

Let's think like a wolf and try to narrow down the list of possible baners. First of all, whoever was blocked by the void-wolf on the night that Ichabod was protected is not the baner. Chances are that they blocked and targeted the same person (Ichabod), so they knew that Ichabod wasn't the baner. They also knew that Roland wasn't the baner, since he's a mason. So that leaves 7 players; 3 of them are wolves, and the wolves were apparently confident about which of the remaining 4 villagers was the baner.

How could they narrow it down further? By looking at who has been on the verge of getting lynched, without claiming to be the baner. That applies to me, Scooter and JKaen. So my theory is this: The wolves were confident that Mardoc was the baner, because it was neither me, Scooter nor JKaen, and the only remaining villager was Mardoc. Which implies that the wolves are Serdoa, GES and Meiz.

I'd like to hear some comments on my reasoning here. I think it makes sense but I am quite surprised by the conclusion. My initial thought was to just pick the two people (besides Roland and Ichabod) that I thought were most likely to be innocent; that would leave 3 people who by elimination must be wolves. Ironically, my two innocent picks using that methodology would probably have been Serdoa and GES.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I will vote with Ichabod and Roland. I have no idea who the wolves could be anymore. If you guys feel that scooter is our best bet, I will vote with you. And Meiz, I agree with you regarding the posting from GES. I am sorry GES if you really took the time needed to write it and are a villager, but looking at what you provided till now, this posting seems for me more like a "Ok, I was suspected by Lewwyn, but I am helpful now, so don't lynch me" then something I would expect from a villager.

I'm sorry if you feel that way considering you are the unknown I consider most likely to be a villager. I certainly never contended that I wrote that post this morning. I wrote it yesterday. My goal was to post it after 9:00am that way the wolves wouldn't be able to narrow down that I wasn't the baner, and tried to post it before SareIn posted his write-up in case I was killed. I am pretty damn certain that was about the fastest SareIn ever got a write-up up, because yesterday he didn't post Lewwyn until well after 9:30. I posted it, hit preview post, read it over again to make sure it made sense, and then hit post. It would be pretty insane I think for a wolf to sit there and post that once the write-up got posted.

I don't contend that I've been super helpful this game, but I did do some more extensive voting analysis on the first Saturday after the game started because I had some free time that day. Same for yesterday.

It would be pretty ironic for us to lose just because I had some free time to actually contribute.

[Mardoc]

[Size="7"]End of Night 7[/Size]
[INDENT]----
As night fell, Mardoc went down into his basesement as he had done every night to fetch the wolfsbane. As he stepped down into the darkness, he heard a small cough. He froze.

"Very good, Mardoc, who would have suspected a simple glass blower as having both the skill and supplies to apply wolfsbane to thwart a werewolf. Not to mention have the presence of mind and wisdom to stay hidden for almost 7 nights. Well done, well done." The voice shifted and began to snarl: "But it ends tonight."

Mardoc turned and ran, he made it halfway up the basement stairs before the void-wolf caught him, though if you wanted to be pedantic about it, parts of him made it about 3/4 of the way up the stairs before the night was over. His screams echoing throughout the village.

When Roland went to investigate in the morning, there was a message written in Mardoc's blood at the top of the stairs:

"Nothing can save you now."
----
[/INDENT]

Result:

[COLOR="Red"]Mardoc was eaten!

Mardoc was the Baner.[/COLOR]

Worst baner ever.

Worst baner ever (j/k).

Oh and worst baner ever!

Right now all he is doing is stumbling around in the dark hoping to get a lucky save on some random person who might even be a wolf!

Best Baner ever

Well, that's that. Best of luck, villagers, and I'll see you over in the lurker thread.

Thanks for the writeup and the GMing, Sareln!

[scooter]

Me, Jkaen and Serdoa have played this game in a way that a wolf would not. Throught the game we have encouraged discussion and have not been afraid to openly give out our thoughts, or throw votes against people we suspect at that moment. We three are in the group of top posters, which include Roland, Lewwyn, Rowain, Novice. We all have been wrong several times, but that is just the part of the game. Wolves know when they are about to lynch a villager, so you will not find them in a situations after a lynch, that all three of us have been.

This paragraph is so flawed in its reasoning. This is why I don't trust even slightly... I mean, did you even follow WW2 after you died? Do you know who else was in the top five posters in WW2? Myself and Serdoa. I was a wolf, and Serdoa was a villager trying to help the wolves. If you really expect ALL the top 5 posters to be villagers, you are either a wolf trying to provide cover for yourself, or you are hopelessly naive. I tried this exact same defense in WW2 actually. I said "look, my voting record is horrible, no wolf would be that obvious!" and "look, I talk a lot, no wolf would be that obvious!" and lucky for me, people generally bought it for awhile before coming to their senses. I hope we can do the same thing today. Meiz.

Also - his list... Meiz, JKaen, and Serdoa. The classic wolf move here is to include himself (wolf), another wolf for cover (I'm guessing Jkaen), and an innocent villager so that he's not too obvious (I'm guessing Serdoa). It's not a guarantee, but there's a good chance.

So here's my list, and I am actually pretty confident about it now, so I'd like to see what others think.

Villagers
1. Ichabod
2. Roland

Werewolves
1. Meiz
2. Zakalwe

One's a wolf, one's a villager
1. JKaen
2. Gold Ergo Sum

[Serdoa]

scooter, honestly, I don't know what to think anymore. Maybe Roland can make anything out of this mess. Though for now I believe GES more then I do Meiz and zakalwe (well, zakalwe thinks I am a wolf and I am not, so not much to believe there for me of course). Especially Meiz I have bad feelings all game and I am not the only one, so

Meiz

[Meiz]

Serdoa, do you honestly think that 3 wolves linked themselves together with mayor votes on day 1? If so, I don't know what else to say to you...

[zakalwe]

So at the moment I have two competing theories:

1. The wolves were confident that Mardoc must be the baner, because the wolves are Serdoa, GES, and Meiz.
   
2. Killing the baner was pure luck, and the wolves are those who individually seem least likely to be innocent: Scooter, JKaen, and Meiz.
   

It seems natural to put my vote down for the common denominator: Meiz. If I am correct about either theory, then one of his fellow wolves has already voted for him, which I believe is to be expected.

Tally coming up in the next post.

[zakalwe]

Tally:

3v: Meiz (Scooter, Serdoa, Zakalwe)

Not voting: Gold Ergo Sum, Ichabod, JKaen, Meiz, Roland

History:

1. Scooter votes Meiz
   
2. Serdoa votes Meiz
   
3. Zakalwe votes Meiz
   

[Jkaen]

When Meiz posted his reasons, I admit I did start thinking the same as scooter (but obviously I know I am a villager), which made me more suspicous of Meiz and Serdoa. I also quite like Zak's baner kill logic as well.

Sorry, its currently looking like instead of trying to think about things all games, I should have just used my RP vote approach and gone with Meiz all along!

[Serdoa]

Serdoa, do you honestly think that 3 wolves linked themselves together with mayor votes on day 1? If so, I don't know what else to say to you...

Meiz, I have no clue whatsoever right now. Have the wolves till now done anything as we thought they would? If so, how comes that we had several days only villagers on the block? We got one wolf, Selrahc, and that seemed more to be luck then really finding evidence.

I admit freely, I am a bad villager because I simply can't make sense out of this mess. The only thing I know is that Roland and Ichabod and I are villagers. That leaves zakalwe, scooter, GES, Jkaen and Meiz as possible wolves. And 3 of them are indeed wolves. But who? For me, I don't look anymore about what would make sense or not, where I think I see voting patters or not, I simply go by gut feeling. And thats you Meiz. Wrong? Maybe, but what else am I supposed to do? There are right now 5 people I suspect so...

Meiz, zakalwe, scooter: All 3 I can't remember being all that active. I can't remember that they even once really tried to get their theories across. Not saying they didn't post, only saying they seemed never really interested if somebody actually even bothers with their theory. And that simply makes no sense for me, as I got pretty upset when I felt that people disregarded what I had to say.

GES: Just not enough to judge him. If we would be earlier in the game, I would lynch him just to get others to speak up, but uh... it is too late for that.

Jkaen: I still feel that his list was just too wrong. But other then that I have not much too go on.

So basically except for those I know are innocent I don't trust anyone. Not really the best situation for a villager at this point in the game :/