Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[zakalwe]

Serdoa, I believe I have posted my fair share of theories and serious thoughts. It's just that my roleplay outshines everything else that I post. Case in point:

The bricklayer is no mason but conspires at night
The barbarian is retired but still wants us to fight

The herbalist has fresh herbs but his evidence is cooked
The brewer cries in his beer but remains overlooked

The smith thinks he chose an inconspicuous name
The bard sings out of tune and his poems are lame

[Meiz]

Jkaen the villager thinks I'm a wolf who included myself and another wolf (Serdoa) in my theory.

Serdoa the villager probably thinks I'm a wolf who included myself and another wolf (Jkaen) in my theory.





Serdoa, I'm a bit offended that you don't remember any of my theories (there's plenty of them) . Any chance you could actually read through my messages? If you think I'm a wolf after that as well, then there's nothing more I can do.

How many theories do you remember from GES and Scooter?

[scooter]

How many theories do you remember from GES and Scooter?

Meiz... You've been parroting this since Day 2 but it's just not true. I have posted about the following theories in depth throughout the game:

1. Irgy Theory - I thought he made a wolf slip, and he had some other oddities that I was the first/only person to point out
2. Ichabod Theory - He had a highly unusual voting record, including a no vote and a vote for himself, which I drew attention to both of those, and I followed his post history and patterns, highlighting several oddities that I felt we needed to take a closer look at.
3. Zakalwe - I still want him lynched!!! I wrote up quite a bit explaining why his attitude/actions absolutely scream wolf.
4. Meiz - I've written up quite a bit why I believe he is a werewolf too. I'll say more in the last paragraph of this post.
5. Daily updates on which 2-3 I suspected the most and why.

Let's take a look at Meiz's theory list so far this game:

1. scooter isn't trying hard enough (huh?)
2. scooter just bandwagons and waits for others to commit before doing anything (huh?)
3. scooter has a good voting record (I really don't, but whatever)

So seriously, stop with the nonsense. You've been spouting the same things over and over again... You've done a remarkable job of posting a lot with very little content, less content than me honestly.

And honestly, am I REALLY not trying that hard? Let's go back to WW2 and see how many posts I had. I had 132. In this game, including this post, I'll be at 111, and that's considering that this game hasn't yet gone as long as last game did, so I'm on pace to write MORE than I did last game - a game where I wrote more than anyone else. So really, am I "not trying hard enough" or did I just not increase my spam production like everyone else has? Honestly I'll probably pass on the next game because I'm tired of playing in a game where 111 posts gets you accused of not trying hard enough, especially now seeing that this game has topped WW2 by over 1,000 posts, despite a similar number of players. I've been quieter the last few days because I got sick of the fact that I'd write something meaningful and then it would get ignored/buried in a mound of posts and then I'd get accused by Meiz for the 10th time that day of not posting enough... So instead I tried being a bit quieter and trying to carefully evaluate everyone based on what was being said, and vote accordingly - coming up with the list that I showed a few posts ago (also I was just getting tired of the game honestly). If you want to lynch me for that, be my guest and save me some time.



I hope everyone will see this and come to their senses and join me in lynching Meiz. Ever notice how blatantly he tries to "latch on" to believed/confirmed villagers? When novice was around and was our most trusted villager, he latched onto everything novice said and merely repeated those things over and over again, rarely contributing anything worthwhile. He followed novice around in votes, and then he's moved on from that to latch onto everything Ichabod says, voting for the exact same person as Ichabod. It basically feels like the werewolf version of "sucking up" so he doesn't get targeted by those people. For a person accusing me of just listening to other people's arguments and voting accordingly... well it's just an awfully rich accusation given his behavior in this game. If I ever got a second chance to be a werewolf in one of these games, that's the exact strategy I would attempt... I've noticed the psychology for people in this game is when someone repeatedly agrees with you, you start to trust them, even if they might be lying about agreeing with you. It's happened so many times in these games that it's humorous... Several people especially I'll notice tends to "trust" those who agree with them more frequently, and I believe that's what Meiz is trying to attempt in this game. We need to nail a werewolf today, so please, let's get Meiz and live to see another day.

[Meiz]

Scooter, I know you are not known for taking anything in these games personally, so I assume that's still the case . I'm playing the villager role, so my job is to flush out wolves as best as I can. I wish I'd be better at it, but I have to go on with the skills I have. And I understand your role as a werewolf is to discredit me as much as possible to get everyone to vote me (but I don't take it personally either ). I have to say, your list of my "accomplishments" through the game is quite misleading, and I really hope others will see that as well. Btw. I have voted two times the same target as novice did.

I'm voting with a trusted villager (Ichabod), since that way I can guarantee that people will not think of my vote as some wolf ploy. It's the best idea I could come up with, since people have doubts regarding me. I'm still going to talk about my suspicions openly, but if Ichabod decides that my theories are bullshit, then I accept that and pray that he is more correct with his theories.

[scooter]

Scooter, I know you are not known for taking anything in these games personally, so I assume that's still the case .

Oh absolutely, a game is a game and I honestly never get offended by it.

I'm voting with a trusted villager (Ichabod), since that way I can guarantee that people will not think of my vote as some wolf ploy. It's the best idea I could come up with, since people have doubts regarding me. I'm still going to talk about my suspicions openly, but if Ichabod decides that my theories are bullshit, then I accept that and pray that he is more correct with his theories.

I guess this is where you and I differ. I trust myself more than I trust anyone else. My goal is to catch werewolves and win the game, not self-preservation. Unless I'm really unsure (which has happened a few times this game), I'm never going to just vote with someone else and trust their opinion over mine. I trust my own opinion more than Ichabod's and Roland's (nothing against them honestly!). Actually part of that is I have more information than they do. I KNOW that I am innocent, and I know that the two of them are innocent... So for me, I have THREE trusted villagers... So while from abroad, there are 6 unknowns (3 villagers, 3 werewolves), for me, there are actually 5 unknowns (2 villagers, 3 werewolves). So while Ichabod and Roland have a 50% chance of each of their suspects being a villager (going strictly by percentages, not taking probability into account), I have a 60% chance of nailing a werewolf, because I have more information than them - that is - the knowledge of my innocence. I can use that to make a more informed decision, therefore I will not blindly vote with Roland or Ichabod just for sake of getting them to like me or anything like that. Of course, if I agree with them, I'll happily vote with them, but if I don't, I'm going to stand by who I think is guilty.

Perhaps that's the disconnect. I'm interested in catching werewolves, you're interested in bandwagoning with the confirmed villagers so that they'll be more likely to trust you... We as a village need three straight werewolf lynches, so the logical position for the wolves is to just get ONE wolf to be generally trusted... All the werewolves need to do is be slightly more trusted than ONE villager, and I think that's what you're trying to do. If you can somehow get yourself to be more trusted than me, then the werewolves win... So you latch onto whatever Ichabod says, hoping he and Roland can get themselves to trust you more than me.... In which case the village loses.

[Meiz]

I don't latch automatically onto anything that Ichabod or Roland say. For several times we've had different opinions, and I'm certain we will have in the future as well. And I'm not doing this to gain their trust. I'm doing this so that the other villagers will know that my vote is not an attempt to get a villager killed on purpose. I'm doing this so that my vote will not make people think that the person I'm voting would be an innocent (which they might think if they view me as a wolf). When there is 1 wolf left, I will probably vote as I please, but for now I'll go with this tactic. Hopefully it will pay off.

So you latch onto whatever Ichabod says, hoping he and Roland can get themselves to trust you more than me.... In which case the village loses.

I beg to differ, the village will not lose if they decide to trust me

Ps. if in the next game you see me and Lewwyn acting like a "proper villager" should, please lynch us immediately

[Gold Ergo Sum]

I don't know. This game stopped being fun for me yesterday. I realize I've been too busy to be particularly useful, but it seems when I did have time on Saturday, it only made me look more suspicious because I'd been so useless so far. I actually had pretty much all day free yesterday but couldn't bring myself to do any analysis. I played Crysis 2 instead.

I am kind of in the same boat as Serdoa. I just don't know what to believe. I think it goes without saying that the wolves have been very strong this game. That makes me question how much we can really know. Stuff like: wolves wouldn't all vote together. Well, why not? If that is the thing we suspect the least, why not do it?

I have thought Jkaen was the most likely wolf for some time. It is really just a combination of: a) doing such voluminous work when pressure fell on him for the first time, with almost nothing before or since, b) being more wrong than I feel any villager could've reasonably pulled off in his rankings (again, under the reverse psychology vibe of, no wolf would do that). I also thought his reaction to almost being lynched was a little strange "yesterday."

None of that is definitive, though. It could be anyone. Didn't Serdoa point out that the wolves were killing WW2 wolves, so why not kill scooter? Wasn't Serdoa himself a wolf in WW2 (I don't know, I thought I remember someone saying that earlier in the thread)? So really, it could be anyone.

But I am going to go home with the girl that brung me so to speak. My general impression is that Serdoa is innocent. I really don't have a read at all on scooter any more-so pure odds say 60% likely to be guilty.

I do think Meiz is likely guilty, but if I vote for him, that means it is five votes against Meiz. Right now two wolves have to be voting against him. Maybe that isn't a surprise, as the wolves don't want to rock the boat, but it does strike me as awfully suspicious.

I still haven't forgotten the weird behavior of Zakalwe on the day Selrahc died and the way he has generally floated under the radar since, despite barely surviving.

I rank it this way:

1. Jkaen-75%
2. Meiz-70%
2. Zakalwe-70%
4. Scooter-60%
5. Serdoa-25%

Jkaen

[Serdoa]

GES, sorry if I made the game unfun for you, that was not my intention. I guess we simply jump right now for everything what is different then the standard behaviour, even if it actually is trying to be helpful. At least I did, probably because I was and still am lost.

Though I have looked at the voting records again. No clue if that actually does help at all, but whatever. I have stated some of that already before, but I feel it may have got overlooked or ... no clue, I just want to make everyone again aware of it:

There are only 3 players which have voted EVERY day for a confirmed villager: zakalwe, Meiz, Jkaen. Jkaen and Meiz have actively lynched 5, zakalwe 4 villagers. Thats REALLY bad, even taking into consideration how bad a game we villagers played. Everyone else has at least voted sometimes for someone not being a confirmed villager. And of all other players I have actually the next worst record, but I voted 2 times for not confirmed players and lynched "only" 3 times a villager.

That voting doesn't make them automatically wolves - they could just be really, really bad villagers - but I have simply nothing else to go on.

[Ichabod]

If I were to vote for someone else today, I would prefer JKaen or Mardoc. I suspect them independently of Lewwyn's role. If the aim is to come up with alternative lynch candidates, naming a second suspect that is heavily predicated on the first suspect being a wolf isn't very useful.

So at the moment I have two competing theories:

1. The wolves were confident that Mardoc must be the baner, because the wolves are Serdoa, GES, and Meiz.
   
2. Killing the baner was pure luck, and the wolves are those who individually seem least likely to be innocent: Scooter, JKaen, and Meiz.
   

It seems natural to put my vote down for the common denominator: Meiz. If I am correct about either theory, then one of his fellow wolves has already voted for him, which I believe is to be expected.

Tally coming up in the next post.

First post is where zakalwe made his Lime green vote. Second post he made today... Can you explain how you changed your mind so quickly, zakalwe?

[zakalwe]

Not sure what you're getting at, Ichabod? JKaen is still on my list of suspects according to theory 2. Theory 1 is new; it's based on asking the question "Why did the wolves kill Mardoc?", as previously explained.

The reason I'm voting for Meiz is that he features as a wolf in both of the theories that I am considering.