Werewolf 3 Game Thread

[Ichabod]

Well, I'm worried.

There is obviously at least one wolf voting for Meiz... What do you think about that, Meiz voters? Do you think that the wolves gave up on him already?? So quickly?

I really don't think that GES is a wolf, so there's probably 2 wolves voting for Meiz. And that is thinking that Meiz is a wolf. If he's not (which seems likely, since there is wolves voting for him), the 3 wolves are voting for Meiz right now...

So voting Meiz is the wrong move, IMO...

[zakalwe]

I don't think they have given up on him; we have had late swings on pretty much every day, so there is still a chance it could swing to someone else. But I think they will play it safe today and go with the flow.

Yesterday I said that I expected the wolves to play more aggressively, but with the death of the baner, that obviously changed. Now they have guaranteed night kills lined up, and they can kill the two confirmed innocents first, so they don't even need to feed us any new information. Therefore, I can easily see them throwing a wolf under the bus today, if they think it positions them better for a villager lynch tomorrow.

Scooter had a good point, in my opinion: the wolves just need to establish one wolf that is more trusted than some villager. And the obvious way to build trust is to lynch a fellow wolf.

[Jkaen]

I also thought his reaction to almost being lynched was a little strange "yesterday."

To be honest, I thought I might get lynched back in day 3 or so. The last couple of days I have gone into being convinced I have no chance to survive, yet somehow coming through each time.

I guess coming so close to death so often its kind of lost its horror, and have have grown to accept the fact I will get hung at some point, and just hoped the baner could put in good enough work to save the village from the mislynch.

To be honest same as others this game was way more work than I had expected, and I having been hoping to get ate for days, maybe I should have sold the possibility of me being the baner harder as it was the only way they ould consider eating me

[Jkaen]

Scooter had a good point, in my opinion: the wolves just need to establish one wolf that is more trusted than some villager. And the obvious way to build trust is to lynch a fellow wolf.

Exactly, all they need is one wolf who is more trusted than me, right now thats most of the village, so why not go with the flow and not draw any attention, they can lose all the wolves they need, even the banewolf is expendable now

[scooter]

There is obviously at least one wolf voting for Meiz... What do you think about that, Meiz voters? Do you think that the wolves gave up on him already?? So quickly?

Absolutely I do. What do the wolves have to do? All they need is to avoid 3 straight lynches... What's the best way to do that? Gain credibility for just ONE wolf. Not a hard feat if you kill a wolf off to gain credibility for the others.

[Ichabod]

Nobody would get any boost for his credibility by voting for Meiz, since it'd probably be a consensus of the village...

I think the wolves are piling on Meiz to get it all over right now. He is the perfect scapegoat.

There's no point in lynching Meiz now. We will lose a confirmed villager this night for sure, so even if Meiz is a wolf, we'll have to make a choice from the same pool of people tomorrow.

That being said, I'll probably vote for zakalwe or scooter...

[scooter]

Nobody would get any boost for his credibility by voting for Meiz, since it'd probably be a consensus of the village...

Sure doesn't like a consensus to me. GES is voting JKaen right now. You aren't voting for Meiz. Meiz isn't obviously. Perhaps you've been deceived by Meiz like I was afraid? He's been careful to never disagree with you and agree with every word you've said, so you seem him as probably innocent. He knows this trick because I pulled it on him in WW2.

That being said, I'll probably vote for zakalwe or scooter...

I'll vote for Zakalwe instead! Fine by me!

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This is important, so if you are skimming, please read this. I've been a wolf before, so I believe I know exactly the correct way for them to play this ending, and what I'm about to say pertains very strongly to how they are probably playing this right now.

Ichabod - it seems to me that what you want instead is to have two equal candidates up for lynching with a close vote. This typically is a decent village strategy, as last minute jumps can be very telling. However, right now, this is a bad idea to be honest. If we do this, there's a good chance that the vote will be between a villager and a werewolf - if we're going statistically anyways. And I'll explain in a minute why the other two scenarios (WW-WW and V-V) are irrelevant).

The problem though is that the werewolves have a very large amount of sway right (they have 3/8 votes!), AND they no longer have a reason not to use it. All they need to do is get ONE kill to win, so their incentive on being careful is gone. If we get a last minute vote with a villager and a werewolf, the werewolves have NO reason to not get cute and do a last minute 2-3 vote swing to win the game, because what does it matter? Therefore, it's almost better to bandwagon a bit today (and if we get that far) tomorrow. It eliminates the risk of werewolf shenanigans that could win the game for them, and it gives us the best chance to win.

If the solution is to engineer a split between, say, Meiz and JKaen... I think that's a bad idea... I mean it's great if they are both WW's, but if they are both WW's, then we have nothing to fear in piling on Meiz. If they are both villagers, we have nothing to fear, because we're gonna lose anyways and we won't know it until the result is revealed. The only circumstance that matters is if one is innocent and one is guilty, and in that case, there's a strong chance that the WW's could do a last second swing to seal the game, because there's no motivation not to do so.

By the way Ichabod - if Meiz is a werewolf and gets dogpiled early, the wolves are more likely to either stay back and be quiet, or quickly follow suit and vote on him, knowing there's tons of time left in the day and it NEVER happens where one candidate is a runaway (seriously, when's the last time an early leader stayed a heavy leader for the entire day? Doesn't happen, people are too jumpy). The one thing they DON'T want to do is go out of their way to introduce an alternative person to lynch, because that's traceable. They want to sit back (jump on the Meiz train or just wait, either is fine) and wait for the village (preferably a trusted villager) to bring up another idea, in which case they're much more free to screw around with votes. You did exactly that just now by suggesting that we not bandwagon against Meiz.

Just something to think about in terms of wolf strategy and how we can counter it. The game is totally different for them now than it has been previously, and I'm sure they realize this. I've been a wolf in the late game before, and if I was a wolf in this game, that's exactly how I would play it.

[Serdoa]

Pretty much I agree with scooter. Also Ichabod, do look at WW2. The wolves got screwed because they piled on the villager on the block and then my late switch made them perfectly visible to anyone. I would not expect them to do this again. If we have a wolf on the block, they can vote for him and wait for the villagers to switch to another target. After all, it is enough if 2 villagers vote for another target, they can then switch all together in the last minute and seal the game. Nothing we can do against that. Pretty much the only way I see us win this is if we as a village pile all onto one target because then even if all 3 wolves would make a late switch, it would not be enough.

[Meiz]

I agree that the late wolf swing could win the game for the wolves, but unfortunately (for villagers, not wolves), you have the wrong target right now. The wolves are more than happy to suggest that we all should pile against me to avoid any late wolf switches, since they will win the game in that case. If everyone is voting me, even the villagers won't do a late switch, since everyone will think their vote will not do any difference.

I've played this game as a villager as best as I can, and I'm sorry if it looks like I'm playing like a wolf. I guess it's mostly placed on the bad lynches? I'm certain that after the game, we will see a lot of villagers with same kind of record. It's just that we don't know it now, since we don't know the status of all players (Jkaen, Scooter, Zakalwe).

I'm not sure how to defend myself any better. I have always stated my voting reasons openly, so I can only encourage people to look at my posts again, since the game really depends on it. And I thought it would work for my advantage, that both Brundaine and Selrahc voted for me as mayor on day 1, since there's no way that 3 wolves would link themselves together like that. I hope you villagers see the light

I would hope we lynch Scooter or Zakalwe today. I'd prefer Scooter

[zakalwe]

Roland - I can understand why you are quiet today but I hope you are still lurking. If you don't vote today we will almost certainly lose. Let me also say this up front: no matter who you vote for, even if it's me, I am never going to blame you (or anyone else for that matter) for "losing us the game". We are all in this together, and even though you have a double vote, you and Ichabod have a tougher choice than the rest of us, since you have one less known innocent to go by. So don't agonize endlessly over this, if that's what you're doing. Nobody expects you to lead the way or anything like that.

Meiz - I tried going through some of your posts, looking for signs you could be innocent. Either I have biased myself to the extent that everything about you seems suspicious, or there just isn't anything to see. At this point, I don't know how to tell the difference. I acknowledge that I could be wrong (again), but I have made my peace with this. Like I said above, we win or lose as a team, and I'm not going to pin a loss on anyone in particular, including myself. We're supposed to win these games through the "wisdom of crowds"; if we lose, it is because our collective, accumulated wisdom was insufficient. I may have been wrong about a lot of things, but to borrow a phrase from JKaen, it's not my fault that people agreed with me. I refuse to feel guilty for speaking my mind.

If we lynch a villager today, I will congratulate the wolves on a game well played, and head over to the lurker thread for what I hope will be a light-hearted post-game discussion. I had a lot of fun so far, and my focus on roleplay really helped for me personally, to avoid getting sucked in (if you know what I mean). Win or lose, I'm actually kind of proud of that "personal achievement", considering how wound up I got in the endgame of WW1.

That said, I have not completely lost the will to win. If someone can point me to a better lynch candidate than Meiz, I will switch. It just needs to be fairly convincing, because---wolf or not---Scooter is right that we really cannot afford to split our vote today. I feel my "Why did they kill Mardoc?" theory is nice and logical, and the irony would be supreme if we actually end up nailing the wolves because they killed the baner. Assuming that theory is rubbish, my "gut instinct" theory would still leave Meiz as one of the three wolves, so that's why I really prefer to lynch him.

When Ichabod suggested we lynch someone else, it seems like Serdoa and GES really clammed up, biting their tongues while waiting for the vote to swing. So that fits my Serdoa/GES/Meiz theory. On the other hand, Scooter is being very vocal that we should stick with Meiz. Despite what Ichabod said earlier, about not gaining any credibility from lynching a fellow wolf today, I do think that Scooter would currently gain a lot of trust if Meiz turns out to be a wolf, due to the way he has been campaigning today. So the Scooter/JKaen/Meiz theory seems to fit too, particularly with the way Meiz keeps throwing jabs back at Scooter.

Bottom line, Meiz could be innocent but I have a strong feeling that he is in fact a wolf who is being thrown under the bus by his fellow wolves. I see no reason to stop them.