[SPOILERS] Tales from the Enchanted Forest - Thessa of the Ljosalfar

[Nyktorion]

Turn 149

Foreign news:

First, WarriorKnight researched Drama this turn. I'm not sure why - he doesn't look like he'd need the culture boost from theaters yet, and the great bard has already been taken by Thoth. Maybe he wants to raise his happy cap through the theater of dreams?

Second, Mardoc now has Saverous. By the time the Mardoc-Thoth NAP runs out, Saverous will have 4 promotions, with the fifth one about halfway done.

Since next turn will be the last turn of my NAP with Thoth, I think it's interesting to take another look at Thoth's army composition. There not a lot of new stuff to see, though.



So I've seen mainly cultists, melee, adepts, and fanaticism units up to now, which does not really scare me. If his army remains like that, I might even march towards Golden Igloo once a few mages are ready. On the other hand, Ritualists or malevolent designs units would force me to stay back. I might try a naval attack on Golden Igloo, though, once I have enough ships.

Exploration in the southwest suggests that Mardoc has claimed the island south of our continent entirely for himself - much better for the balance of power than if Thoth had it.



On the Elohim-Infernal front, we see that the infernal units were heavily damaged by snowfall. As I have read in the tech thread, they are eliminated now.



The power graph shows that I've fallen behind Thoth militarily, which is not surprising considering his growth. Still, I think I'm strong enough to be able to stand my own ground defensively against him, especially once the Elohim and Lanun join in.



Diplo:

About Mardoc's NAP request last turn: I don't really want to fix my position in a post-Thoth environment that I don't even know yet. On the other hand, I'd really like everyone to be able to concentrate on the Malakim war for now, so I settle with a mixed response:

Hi,

okay, I'll just tell when my adepts start passing the 10XP threshold, and I thus need the air mana.

Generally a NAP would be good to have more insurance that no bad surprises happen while we are concentrating on Thoth; however, I'd rather propose a NAP with a different mechanic: first your proposed terms would be quite uncertain: what constitutes the "end of the war" against Thoth? While the answer to that is quite clear in the optimal scenario where we just swiftly march through Thoth's lands until he is destroyed or surrenders to the alliance, it would be quite tricky to interpret in other cases. So, I'd rather have something clearer like "NAP until turn X"; here, X could be 180 or 200 for now, as some examples.

Second, if I sign something that might go beyond the duration of a Malakim war (such as a NAP until T200), I'd also be interested in whether you'd also give WarriorKnight and Heisenberg similar NAP offers. After all, I'd want to watch you swallow one of them while my hands are tied about as much as you'd like me to hit you after Thoth

-- Nyktorion

I guess that my proposal would land something between openness to direct attacks after the war, and Mardoc 25 turn suggestion.

Mardoc seems to insist on his own kind of NAP treaty:

Actually - by the time our messages got around, my adepts finished. I
can't figure how how to cancel the gift, but I went ahead and offered
my Air mana this turn.

On NAPs - well, in principle I'm ok with signing them with Heisenberg
and WarriorKnight. I'm mainly trying to figure out what a post-Thoth
world would look like; I don't really have any plans or ideas set in
stone just yet, except that I see no point in conflict with anyone not
on my border (it's yet to be seen who that will be). I'm talking with
people one at a time, and frankly I think you have the scariest army.
Maybe I need to be planning to keep Thoth around as a buffer, though,
if you're not happy with peace with the Lanun .

I would have defined end of the war against Thoth quite simply - when
the in-game status is no longer war, for whichever of us signs peace
first. My worry with signing a fixed NAP is precisely that I don't
think it's clear what it buys, since I have no idea what the game
status would be at the time.

I don't know if the above is clear or not, I'm still trying to sort
out the situation in my own head, and if I'm confused, I don't see how
what I write is not.

- Mardoc

Hmm... his "Thoth as a buffer" threat goes into a similar direction as my own reasoning in favor of the NAP. I'm not sure yet, but I think I can accept his kind of NAP, too. I'd like him to sign something comparable with the civs in that case, though.

Heisenberg has also written me something:

Hi Nyktorion,

I have 2 Privateers North and East of Dis, just outside the Infernal culture.

Regards,
Heisenberg

Hi Nyktorion,

WK has counterattacked in force against the Infernals--here's a screenshot of Valin, Corlindale (with snowfall), 8 Monks, Confessors, Adepts.
The Infernals might not be able to last long against that onslaught.

I would like to sound you out over the possibility of the following:
To mediate a ceasefire between the Elohim and Infernals, and to bring the Infernals into the Anti-Thoth alliance.

There are multiple possible benefits to such a plan:
(1) The Infernals are willing to loan out the Iron they own around. None of us has access to Iron, whereas Thoth has. And we aren't exactly close to Ironworking either I believe. With our NAPs running out on Thoth, and yours soon in a turn, I believe Iron weapons would be very useful in our dogpile on Thoth.
(2) In response to the National Units Thoth might be able to field, Hyborem would be the perfect counter.

Mardoc and I have discussed with Darrell, the Infernal player about this, and he is willing to make large concessions for peace, such as a long term NAP with us, and the Iron loan.
We would appreciate that you could keep the following in confidence between the few of us:
We are also worried that WK would get too powerful after finishing off the Infernals and getting the Gela. My personal forces would not be able to hold against that of WK's should he attempt to invade me soon after. And naturally keeping WK focused on the upcoming dogpile would be advantageous to you and Mardoc.
Due to the fact that the Infernals and I are stuck in WK's backyard, our survival would be able to serve as a good counter-balance to WK running away should the Anti-Thoth attack suceed and you guys assimilate Thoth's lands.

Should you also support us in the above proposal, please let me know. We could possibly press WK together diplomatically in the Anti-Thoth league to agree to it, and to discuss concrete details on action against Thoth, which should be our main focus right now.

Best Regards,
Heisenberg

Attached picture:

Hmm... while I find it an interesting idea to join the infernals into our alliance, I don't really care that much for it. Most of us don't have iron using units, anyway, and I think the stability of our alliance is important enough not to risk it by creating diplomatic pressure over issues like this. My response:

Hi Heisenberg,

my own pair of privateers is still resting in the same place. I also have one within my own culture northwest of Dis.

Thanks for your information on the Elohim-Infernal war! So Corlindale indeed has snowfall already, which drops the Infernals' chances in this war close to 0.

Of course, I will keep your fears about WarriorKnight confidential, even though I don't share them; I judge Mardoc to be at least as powerful as WarriorKnight, even though that's not shown in the score (Lanun coast affinity tends to deflate score, specifically the "land score" portion of the score).

I do think that Hyborem would be more useful to our alliance alive rather than dead; his Iron, Hyborem himself, and his additional mana sources should be quite useful for the alliance. Hence, I agree with again suggesting to vassalize rather than kill the Infernals. There's just the question how the "pressure" on WarriorKnight should look like. I would not like to break up our alliance (or threaten do so) over this issue either (that would just help Thoth). Telling him that all three of us think that he should seriously reconsider the vassalization vs killing choice before moving in would be fine with me, though.

best regards,
Nyktorion

Also, WarriorKnight has already moved in towards Dis, so that point is now moot, anyway.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 150

Foreign news: WarriorKnight has researched Archery (hmmkay). Thoth has researched Engineering (so he has 3 road movement now, which is a bit inconvenient...), he got the Empyrean shrine (okay...), and he built the Infernal Grimoire (OUCH!).

Further news:



As stated, Mardoc has offered me his Air Mana. However, I rejected, because none of my adepts has 10XP yet, and I don't want the 10 turn counter to starting ticking yet. Also, since this is my last turn in a NAP with Thoth, I want to be able to upgrade my adepts with free Air I as soon as they get their last point of XP.

I also contemplated about what mana I'd ask WarriorKnight for. I decided on enchantment: enchanted blade will at least help my single warrior in F.Destination (and even de-rust it), but much more importantly, flaming arrows will improve lots of archers.

Thoth has started marching his troops towards our border. Here's a picture of them, color coded in the same way as the pictures I sent to Mr. Yellow many turns ago:



Looks like Thoth is sending everything he has to me. If can just hold out for 10 turns, and WarriorKnight comes knocking, too, this might get fun...
On the other hand, I'll really need all my tigers to defend against that. The only city Thoth can hit from within his territory (more specifically, from 2 tiles within his territory, thanks to engineering) is F.Destination, however, it is threatened to some degree:



I've indicated the number of moves it takes units from the blue circle to reach the respective tiles. As we can see, only chariots can directly attack F.Destination from within Thoth's borders, but Ritualists can still move next to the city and cast their ring of flames. Luckily, the number of Thoth's chariots is low enough to leave room for a counterattack of my own. Of course, I'd be quite happy if the new forest encircled in green could just grow into a forest - this would obstruct Thoth's movement enough to allow me a first strike against anything but his chariots.

Concerning the other parts of the world, my exploring caravel found a Malakim frigate! Luckily, the NAP with Thoth is valid until the end of this turn.



As we know, WarriorKnight has captured Dis:



It should be noted that due to the Tolerant trait, WarriorKnight can build Infernal units and buildings now. Imps and Hellhounds only have small advantages over their counterparts, but I wonder whether balors and death knights are counted separately from berserkers and knights regarding the national unit limit? Finally, WarriorKnight can switch out his Elohim palace for an Infernal palace if he desires, which would give him a source of iron!

Finally, here are some pictures from my empire...

F1 screen:



My core lands:



Teldrassil:



Elohim border:



East Bannorlands, including my stack, with some tigers summoned:

[Bobchillingworth]

but I wonder whether balors and death knights are counted separately from berserkers and knights regarding the national unit limit?

Nope, they'll still hit the limit in conjunction with any regular knights / whatever which WK builds.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 151

Foreign news: WarriorKnight researched Mathematics, Heisenberg and Thoth researched Necromancy, and Mardoc researched Sorcery. Additionally, Thoth picked Malevolent Designs from the infernal grimoire.

I have underestimated the seriousness of my situation. As I outlined in my last turn report, most of Thoth's units can only move onto the forest in front of the gates of F.Destination. However, a haste spell on that square will still enable all of his units with at least 2 movement point (i.e. virtually all of his units) to attack immediately!

Here is his current main stack:



The stack is large enough so that the mouseover doesn't reveal everything anymore. Still, in the military advisor, it can be inferred that there are 30 units in that stack (less than I have defenders in F.Destination, but still a lot). Among these units, there's this nice guy:



Moreover, there are some units in a fort 1SW of the stack, whose reach goes as far as the reach of Thoth's main stack, thanks to Engineering:



With ring of fire taking down up to 40% of my units' health, this attack will hit like a hammer.

So, I now have to decide where I will make my stand against this stack. I decided agaist moving out of F.Destination: I can still get many defensive bonuses (he'll have to attack across a river, everyone's already fully fortified), and it is very questionable whether I have any chance to get the first strike at the later point of battle if I just let him take this city, its great bard, and the crossroads between Khandar and Pink Dot. So I decided to make my stand here and now.

To help with this, Mardoc indeed activated his part of the air mana deal and sent me his air mana. Indeed, I upgraded the first mage this turn, and gave him the maelstrom spell. Moreover, one of the less experienced adepts learned Earth I and cast Wall of Stone, and I immediately erected a palisade:



This increased the city defence bonus to 75%. Finally, I sent out my tigers, which don't get any defensive bonuses anyway, to absorb the first hits, and make Thoth's ritualist and hast management a bit more complicated:



Last, I spent all promotions on my non-magic units. Now, I'll sit back and hope that all of this is enough to field a significant enough maelstrom-fuelled counterattack if Thoth charges...

Some other news:

My exploring caravel reached the southwestern Elohim border, and found another barbarian city:



I also decided to spend one turn of research to get Horseback Riding; the ability to give out the Mobility I promotion might come in handy during the next few turns.

Diplo:

Last turn, I sent a NAP offer to Mardoc to ensure that there would be no feasting upon other parties directly after a Thoth war while still keeping the cooldown period:

Hi,

sadly, I can't use the air mana this turn, either, there's still several adepts sitting at 9XP each. However, Thoth is approaching my borders (and our NAP ends at the end of this turn), so I'd like to have the instant Air I promotion available as soon as my adepts get their tenth experience point, without the 1-turn delay from proposing a trade ingame. Therefore I subsequently asked for the Air mana ingame myself.

Concerning the NAP: okay, a NAP with a 25 turn cooldown starting when the first party makes peace with Thoth seems good to me. After that war, it would be good to have a consolidation phase, anyway. I'd just like to add the following clause then: if you declare war on anyone else than Thoth while the NAP is active, I reserve the right to immediately cancel the NAP (and vice versa, you get the same right if I declare war on anyone else than Thoth while the NAP is active).

That way, we will have a cooldown period that allows us to completely focus on Thoth during our dogpile, and we can reconsider the global diplomatic situation 25 turns after the war.

What do you think of this?

best regards,
Nyktorion

Responses indicate that this proposal is fine for both of us:

That sounds like a fair approach to the NAP. I'm willing to sign that.

- Mardoc

Hereby signed by me.

-- Nyktorion

WarriorKnight has responded the my enchantment mana request:

Hi nyktorion

I saw your request for Enchantment mana as an exchange for body mana. I was under the impression that I already gave you water mana in exchange for Body mana, and that there was a possibility of completing a Enchantment for Metamagic mana trade at some point in the future. Thus I'd like to confirm that we're both on the same page before we continue trading.

I would be willing to lend you Enchantment mana now for a future loan of Metamagic, if you plan on getting Metamagic in the near future. However, since Enchantment mana counts as a happiness resource as well as a strategic one, would you also be willing to send me a happiness resource that I lack while I am trading Enchantment mana to you so we can keep our happiness situation even? (I think either silk or cotton would work)

Regards,
WarriorKnight

Oops, I really messed up the body and nature transfers there. So I send an according counter-proposal:

Oops, sorry, I mixed that up on my side. The body mana was indeed in return for the enchantment mana. What I was thinking about was the nature mana, which I also gave you. While the initial deal was that I'd choose between nature or life in return, I noticed that enchantment would currently suit me better. So, if you'd like, I'll take your enchantment mana in return for that; if not, then I'll make my choice between nature or life during the next turn. I'm still open for an enchantment/meta deal in that case, though.

best regards,
Nyktorion

Response:

Well the nature/life mana trade was so we could get some free promotions on our units, and while it's a nice bonus it hasn't had much practical use for me. Therefore I'd like to keep our current Nature for Nature or Life deal separate and keep Enchantment for a new deal.

As for Enchantment, I'd be happy to send that your way now (in exchange for a happiness resource, noted above). Athough we did agree that you would send Metamagic in return, I am also interested in Air mana now (I know I rejected Air mana before but the situation has changed slightly) and would probably prefer Air to Metamagic at this time. You seem to be swapping Air mana with Mardoc ATM, perhaps after that's finished you could send Air mana my way?

Regards,
WarriorKnight

not quite what I wanted to read, but that's what we agreed upon, so I can't blame him for it. I'm fine with those deals, but I want to finish my mage upgrades before giving away my air mana:

Hi,

okay, then let's do it like this: I'd like to get nature mana in return for the nature mana I gave you. I'd be fine with an enchantment/air deal (plus borrowing you silk while you I receive the enchantment mana). However, it will be a few turns until I can deliver the Air mana: while I just finished borrowing it to Mardoc, I am now getting Air mana from Mardoc in return, and I do want to use the double air mana for myself the next few turns (the first adepts just became a mage, several others should follow soon, and I can use the free air promotion well considering that Thoth's army - including one Eidolon - is at my doorsteps).

What do you still think of these trades? In case you agree, could you already offer me the nature mana and enchantment-for-silk during your turn?

best regards,
Nyktorion

[darrelljs]

The movement counter can go negative. By that, I mean if I take a 2 move unit and put it on a forested hill, it has -1 movement and Haste brings it to 0. I do not believe a 2 move unit can attack F. Destination with Haste, and I say that because I do not believe the tile to the SE is a new forest.

Darrell

[Nyktorion]

The movement counter can go negative. By that, I mean if I take a 2 move unit and put it on a forested hill, it has -1 movement and Haste brings it to 0. I do not believe a 2 move unit can attack F. Destination with Haste, and I say that because I do not believe the tile to the SE is a new forest.

Darrell

That's great tactical news! Indeed, the tile SW of F.Destination (the one I labelled with "3.66" in the above picture) is a forest, not just a new forest.

[Nyktorion]

Turn 152

Foreing news: no rival researched any techs, but Mardoc founded yet another city, which he named Analyzer.

Let's continue with the diplo right now. Before playing the turn, I got messages from WarriorKnight and Mardoc. WarriorKnight accepts my Nature/Nature and Air+Silk/Enchantment proposals.

Sounds good. I've offered Enchantment and Nature for Silk. Let me know when your Air mana is free.

Regards,
WarriorKnight

And Mardoc accepts the 25-turn-past-peace-with-Thoth NAP:

And signed.
- Mardoc

Indeed, the turn starts with WarriorKnight's offer popping up, which I accepted. I also researched Horseback Riding, thus unlocking the mobility promotion. I immediately made use of the enchantment mana by using enchanted blade to remove the rust from one of my better archers.



The picture also shows my sizeable stack of defenders in F.Destination; and there's another stack of about 10 tigers 1 SW of the city. Thoth has n ot declared war yet, but the troops he is rallying in front of my borders are rather numerous as well. He currently has a stack of the 32 underlined units in the next picture:



His troops are generally better promoted than mine. In particular, his Eidola (he has two of them now) are pretty strong:



On top of that, there are some more troops in the fortress SW of Thoth's main stack, whose range goes exactly as far as the range of the units in the main stack:



Finally, some news from other parts of the world. Thoth's frigate has followed my caravel, but it is too slow to catch up:



WarriorKnight has started moving his units from Dis westwards again:



And now, really finally, something I only noticed after I hit EOT. Do you notice something frightening in this picture?



General Martok has the commando promotion! So, I'll look to have more than one defender in Yonna and Khandar before Thoth notices that General Martok could simply raze these cities!

EDIT: One more tactical thing: as you can see in one of the above pictures, Thoth has picked shadow mana for one of his mana nodes. This gives him the blur spell, which makes his units ignore the first strikes and defensive strikes of my archers. Is this a reaction towards me choosing to promote Gilden Silveric with Drill IV?

[Nyktorion]

Turn 153

Again, none of the things which I normally note as "foreign news" happened. However, I noted that Thoth's gold balance is pretty high, despite him being in the process of upgrading Eidola: he currently has 868g in the bank.

Thoth has still not declared war. However, the "cold war" along our borders is still continuing. He now has a force of 34 units outside my gates:



There's two more Eidola outside the main stack, so he has reached the national unit limit on Eidola now:



So, how did I improve my defence? The most notable thing is that I was able to promote my second mage. Again, it is one of the utility casters, not a fireballer. However, in constrast to the first mage, I did not give him maelstrom as his first level 2 spell:



Instead, I picked Echantment II, i.e. the flaming arrows spell. This raises Gilden's base strength to 7, my nightwatch's strength to 8/7, and all archers are 5/6 now.

Outside the cold war, one of my hawks spots a new kind of Sheaim unit:



Good, so maybe, Thoth can't ignore Heisenberg once sanctuary wears off.

My caravel and the privateers I sent south (which did not move for a few turns to recover from a griffon attack) are finally meeting:



I also let Heisenberg know about my new privateer position:

Hi again,

my privateer pair has moved again. It is located 3S of Steinvik now.

-- Nyktorion

EDIT: this message just came in from Mardoc:

Hey all, just a quick question. I was talking with Thoth the other
day about NAPs, and he mentioned this: "My current agreements preclude
me from owning the world before turn 210". I take it that means the
coalition is off? Should I go ahead and sign an NAP myself with him,
then? What's going on?

- Mardoc

That's interesting news. Who could have signed such a NAP with Thoth? Obviously, it's not Mardoc, and due to the current sanctuary advantage, I doubt it's WarriorKnight, either. That would leave Heisenberg; given his current position in the game, his decision to sign that NAP would at least be plausible...

Anyway, I at least let everyone know about my own state of affairs with Thoth; and even if there's a traitor in our alliance, there's no infromation in my message that this traitor couldn't have gotten from Thoth, either:

From my side, I can tell you that I am currently in a NAP-less state with Thoth. In fact, both of us are currently amassing armies at each other's borders (among other things, he has a complete set of four Eidola, some ritualists and iron chariots now), and I fully expect war between us to break out in the next few turns.

-- Nyktorion

[uberfish]

Good to see at least some mages being done in time

[Nyktorion]

Turn 155

Foreign news:



The pillar of chains has been erected in Golden Lean To (a size 24 city, so it really pays off there!), and I'm not sure about the Great Prophet, but I guess it's Mardoc's, since he's the only one whose largest cities I can't see.

The standoff at my western border continues, Thoth's stack now contains 36 units:



I'm quite content with the standoff continuing like this. The longer we wait, the closer the dates where Thoth's other NAPs run out come. So at least, it seems like there was not that much of a hurry to upgrade those mages, after all

In other news, WarriorKnight's main stack continues moving to the west:



Diplo:

Mardoc's citation of Thoth that T210 is his earliest world domination date has stirred quite some uncertainty within our alliance. Here are the messages to all four of us:

Perhaps WarriorKnight would be able to confirm if he has a NAP till 210?

I'm the one already stuck at war messing around with his Cultists since 20 turns ago.

-Heisenberg

Hi all

I'm not sure what Thoth was referring to either. However I suspect that he was trying to spread discord among us with that comment to split us up. Remember that he's probably known about the dogpile for a long time, and if he can get any of us to leave then he'll have a much easier time with the rest of us. I'd be wary of anything he says since he knows we're coming.

Regards,
WarriorKnight

In parallel, a series of messages has started between only Heisenberg, Mardoc, and myself:

That's a good point, and one I should have thought of myself. That
means it pretty much has to be WarriorKnight (hence why I've left him
off of this e-mail).

I'll be kicking off a major armaments program shortly. My frustration
is that except for Cultists, I really don't have much collateral
available to me, so I'm not sure how much progress I'll really be able
to make against Thoth. I'll have Hemah, with I guess Maelstrom, and a
bunch of Adepts. But at the least I can make him watch his southern
border.

- Mardoc

Nyktorion,

With the probable defection of WarriorKnight, that changes things a
lot. Are you still going to hold me to no aggression against WK?
Heisenberg is convinced that WK will be coming after him, and it makes
sense to me; WK hasn't built his army to sit around painting barracks,
and if they're not going after Thoth, the Sheaim are the logical next
target. I would like to help him survive, but I don't see any way to
do that short of war with WK, simultaneous with my war with Thoth.
Which would be a real pain, but it would probably get me Ice mana,
which would enable offense on the Malakim front, not just defense.

I would be willing to promise not to attack WK unless he fights
Heisenberg, though.

- Mardoc

Hi Nyktorion~

Yea, had a chat with Mardoc earlier.
It does seem that WK would have signed a long term NAP with Thoth:
(1) Thoth's claims (he doesn't seem like someone to lie diplomatically)
(2) Thoth's armies amassed near you. Wouldn't make sense to mass near you when the obvious attack ought to have been from WK under Sanctuary now that the Infernals are gone.
(3) I had asked WK multiple times for actually commitments on Thoth while under Sanctuary, and he has pretty much ignored all requests.

The situation now seems like:
Thoth having the long-term NAP with WK.
Thoth trying to sign NAP with Mardoc.
Thoth declaring on you, WK on me safely, each only having one front to deal with.

We're hoping to come to a more concrete agreement with actual substance (compared to the loose one we had earlier on Thoth), and possibly for cooperation for the long term.

In the meantime, we would suggest (short term plans):
(1) I'd float my privateers over to try to assist you in the naval front--so hopefully Thoth would be stuck having to go via land, where he'd be ultimately still vulnerable to your March.
(2) Mardoc would be finishing his Arcane Lore soon, and would be able to field Hemah. I would be willing to lend him my Ice mana for him to proceed learning Snowfall.
(3) With Snowfall(Hemah) and Saverous, he would be able to pose a potential threat to Thoth on the Western side, hopefully drawing some of Thoth's national units back--we're hoping that a smaller SoD would make him more susceptible to a Treant-Stomp aka poor Saruman at his tower (4) My own NAP with WK wears off at t170. His walls come down soon after. Should WK declare on me, I hope to be able to hold his forces for those turns, and Mardoc would be able to assist afterwhich on WK's coastal cities.
(5) should you decide to March, you'll have spare Treants hanging around WK's borders. Any assistance on that front would be most appreciated.
(6) Mardoc or perhaps you, could send some hawks over to assist in scouting out their troops locations. I'm afraid I do not have hunting yet.

If we could all agree to these in principle, we could then proceed to hammer out the exact plans, and long term cooperation details.

Best Regards,
Heisenberg

I am thinking that the two are jumping to conclusions too fast here. Still, I should be thinking about what to do in case WarriorKnight really defects the alliance.

Well, what would the consequences be in that case? The loss of Heisenberg wouldn't hurt too much; I feel he is the player in the position least able to contribute to the alliance anyway. WarriorKnight's increased strength from swallowing Heisenberg shouldn't mean too much against either an endgame Mardoc-Nyktorion alliance, or a Thoth who is strengthened from swallowing me, either. However, the absence of WarriorKnight's own troops would actually hurt us; snowfall and those blessed monks, led by Valin, opening another fron for Thoth, would be very valuable.

So, is there any way I could pressure WarriorKnight in case he defects us? Diplomatically, there isn't: in that case, the NAP until T210 with Thoth is already signed, so it would be very hard to turn him around again that way. Militarily, it is not possible either. Of course, during his fight against Heisenberg, once his sanctuary runs out, he would be very vulnerable to me just breaking our NAP; but even then, I'd have to keep my troops at Thoth's border (and due to Thoth having NAPs running with both Mardoc and WarriorKnight in that scenario, he would remain locked on me for quite some time to come).

So, my best bet would still be to just continue my cold war with Thoth in that case. However, I think this scenario would benefit Thoth more than WarriorKnight, so I hope it is not true in the first place

Now, if WarriorKnight is still loyal (which is what I think), it would be very bad if the alliance just broke down because of these rumours. So my diplomatic strategy is to just try to keep our alliance together, while assuming WarriorKnight's loyalty until the opposite is proved.

My response to the four-way discussion:

WarriorKnight, am I interpreting your statement correctly when I conclude that your NAP with Thoth still runs out on T160?

If that is the case, that would be very good: Thoth currently has a large army (34 units in total, including 4 Eidola, 4 Ritualists, and 8 Chariots), parked in front of my borders, facing a large stack of my own in a kind of a "cold war". That means he must be rather open to atacks at his other fronts. Do you think you can actually hurt him when T160 comes, or at least force him to split up the large stack I mentioned?

best regards,
Nyktorion

Response to the 3-way messages:

Hmm, I think we should avoid coming to any hasty conclusions; according to what WarriorKnight said, he seems not to have that T210-NAP with Thoth, either.

How immediate would the danger from WarriorKnight be if he indeed defected our alliance? I.e. how long is his remaining NAP with you Heisenberg? If that time is far enough beyond T160 (if I recall correctly, that's how long his NAP with Thoth is going), we could just wait and see how WarriorKnight will react once his NAP with Thoth runs out; if WarriorKnight is indeed still on our side, we will notice that either Thoth retreats some of his troops from my border (he currently has 34 units there, including all of his Eidola), or WarriorKnight uses the opening to march into the Malakim lands with snowfall, Valin Phanuel and his monks. If neither of this happens, we really have a reason to get suspicious.

-- Nyktorion