[SPOILERS - PBEM17] Kyan Does Dallas. The Orange Sensation.

[oledavy]

Emails went flying back and forth today between myself, Darrell and Shoot. I think Darrell is probably tired with all the messages I've been sending him by now Here they are in chronological order, the first is a response to a query I sent to Shoot regarding NAPs and on what to to in regards to Rego.

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]Dave,

I have indeed put off plans to attack the iron city in the near term future. Between Nospace having the tech for both knights and longbows and with the layout of their city which has a patch of jungle that would effectively prevent any sort of sneak attack, there's just not much of an opportunity to take the city until later. At this point, I am thinking that city would simply be one I would be targeting once our war breaks out.

In regards to Nospace: my understanding is that they approached Darrell for a NAP and Darrell told them he had a MDP with me (which is true) that would prevent him from signing one with me and that is the only reason they approached me. As such, I wouldn't be concerned about them planning to attack you. If I do sign a NAP with them, I could stipulate that any attacks on a third party would terminate the NAP if you like though.

To answer your question about what my plans are with an NAP, I would have preferred the topic never came up with them so we wouldn't have to sign any without tipping our hands. However, since they did come up, my plan at this point is to ask how long of a NAP they are looking for. If it is 25 turns or below I will probably accept just to delay the length of time they are suspicious (i.e. they won't be suspicious of an attack for the first 15-20 turns of that NAP until I refuse to renew it, which correspondence I will likely stall to buy more time). If they ask for longer, I will either attempt to negotiate them to a 25t or less time frame or simply state that I don't feel safe being without iron for that long as an excuse to not sign it. Trying to get a short NAP just seems like the most effective way to keep them from being suspicious and building up troops for the longest amount of time.

In terms of rego, it is worth pointing out that his lands would be very hard for him to defend from me once you get East Indiamen online. He simply has too many coastal cities mere tiles from my continent on his jungle arm and other islands for him to be able to defend all of them effectively (and because of your uu he won't be able to win the naval war, which would really be his only option). As such, I would not expect him to actively enter the war.

One option with rego would be to tell him shortly before we declare that we are going to and to also inform him in that conversation that the three of us have a MDP lasting at least the length of the war and perhaps a bit after it is finished (but assuring him that it will not be an alliance that will last significantly past the end of the war--whether or not that is true). I agree with your assessment that rego would likely do what he feels is best for his own civs interest, which I think would mean he would not be interested in being on the 2 side of a 3v2. If we don't do that, my suspicion is that he would not immediately support Nospace but would be looking for opportunistic strikes, which would effectively force us to keep more garrison units in our back cities than we would otherwise want to.

Shoot

[/COLOR]
I'm still unsure of what to do regarding a NAP with NoSpace, but Shoot's reassurances make me feel a lot better. I still have not decided how to respond.

Next is an email Darrell sent to me and Shoot, along with my response:

[COLOR="Yellow"]Please check next turn if a) you can trade maps with Nospace, and b) you can trade maps with regoarrarr.

Shoot = 29 + 50
David = 63 + 165

Those numbers are totally from memory; can you load the last save to correct the first number, and let me know what I requested the turn I literally played 5 minutes ago but can't remember?

Education is due end of next turn. Meditation (1), Philosophy (2), and Liberalism (3) remain.

Thanks,
Darrell

[/COLOR]

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Darrell,

I can trade maps with Rego, but not NoSpace. The ledger for the first turn should be 64 gold from me, not 63. I did not have a trade request for gold from you when I jumped into the game, so I offered you 165 gold. I will have 171 gold available next turn for trade. I can research alphabet in one turn at 40% science running a 4 gold surplus. As an additional note, I believe that Rego completed the University of Sankore last turn - it looks like he is going for that priest economy.

Best Regards,
Dave

[/COLOR]
Lastly, as I said in the last email, I checked in game and saw that I could trade maps with Rego, so I hit him with a deal to trade world maps:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Greetings Rego of the Noble Inca!

We here in the Templar Realms are pleased to see that you have researched paper; and, I believe, completed the University of Sankore? These secrets are currently unknown to us, nonetheless, do you have any interest in trading our maps of the known world?

Best Regards,
Dave of the Templars

[/COLOR]
This was perhaps a mistake on my part. He caught me on Gmail chat and asked me who else had paper (Darrell). I said I didn't check and had only noticed his by accident, but that I would check next time I logged in and let him know. I don't want to tip him off that Darrell is close to getting liberalism. However, he'll realize it soon enough from the GNP screen and probably deduce that I'm funding him. Nevertheless, I'm going to put off revealing that Darrell has paper until tomorrow, longer if I can get away with it. At least the ball is in his court and if he wants to get that info he is going to have to talk to me again and trade world maps with me.

[oledavy]

I went into World Builder and began testing the very real possibility that I will have to pit East Indiamen against Frigates in the upcoming conflict with NoSpace.

Overall Thoughts and Assumptions

- I will not be able to tech to chemistry by the time we start our invasion, and will not have frigates online for awhile.
- NoSpace will prioritize netting chemistry before the attack and will have 4-8 frigates on standby when we declare war.
- I'll be able to get the first wave ashore without any losses, but will be harried on the way back and when trying to land successive waves.
- Darrell & Shoot will quickly secure NoSpace's iron, meaning they won't be able to build more frigates, but that I'll still have to deal with the existing ones at some point.
- I won't be able to secure naval supremacy and blockade trade routes unless I have a very big surplus of ships.
- I will have to use a sub-optimal method to transport successive waves of troops, moving them in large convoys rather than a steady trickle.
- Most of the naval battles will take place in coastal waters, meaning I can always expect the defending ship to have a +10% advantage
- I will be running vassalage and theocracy when I start work on my fleet, so all ships will have 4XP and most will use it for combat I.

I toyed with the idea of gaining naval superiority by killing frigates using a Caravel/East Indiamen or East Indiamen/East Indiamen pair on each, all my ships with combat I. However, in practice it was not very effective. The Caravel/East Indiamen pair won only once out of five instances, while the East Indiamen/East Indiamen pair won three out of five cases. All I can hope to do with my fleet is defend, rather than attack.

The combat system works like this:
If a group of loaded East Indiamen are under attack, the highest strength one will defend.
If a group of identical loaded East Indiamen are under attack with different numbers of units on board, the one with the lowest number of units will defend first.
If a caravel is present in the group of East Indiamen and one of the transports has at least 2 units on board, the caravel will defend.

So, ideally, my fleet consists of three types of ships to counter frigates:
- Meat Shield Ship: a ship to absorb the frigates attack and inflict enough damage before being sunk. (promotions: combat I)
- Naval Superiority Ship: a ship to attack and sink the damaged frigate on the next turn (promotions: combat I)
- Transport Ship: a ship to actually move the troops (promotions: unpromoted, promoted as need be)

I tried testing caravels as meat shield ships and found that only 1 time out of five did they inflict enough damage on the frigate for a Naval Superiority Ship to succeed in sinking it the next turn. This pairing would also mean my naval supremacy ships would have to have at least two units onboard, which could get lost if the ship sunk.

The advantage to having 4XP warships is that if they survive their initial battle, they will instantly be able to promote and heal. Combat II East Indiamen have significantly better odds defending against Frigates than Combat I ships. I probably will not use any other promotion, other than possibly medic I - but since most of the time of these ships will be spent in transit, I doubt I will find need tor a medic I vessel.

If attacked by galleons, caravels, triremes or galleys, my Combat I East Indiamen will easily be able to destroy them, so they are not a major concern going into this.

So the ideal fleet consists of an even number of combat I Naval Superiority(NSS)/Meat Shield Ships and transport ships. The key thing will be to have a meat shield and corresponding naval supremacy ship for every frigate NoSpace has, in real turns, this means at this ratio, for every Indian Frigate, I have to have 2 East Indiamen - 1 Meat Shield, 1 NSS - not including ships to actually transport units.

In practical terms, this means I need to spend 106 hammers to kill every 60 hammer frigate NoSpace puts out Ideally, NoSpace won't have frigates. If that's not the case, hopefully Darrell and Shoot will be able to quickly secure NoSpace's iron and put an end to the naval conflict so this lopsided rate of exchange does not continue.

[oledavy]

Shoot's response to Darrel' 'Ledger' email:

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]I can trade maps with rego but not Nospace.

Going forward, how much gold are you expecting to need from me each turn?

Also, in regards to Nospace: I said I didn't want to be locked in long-term and they agreed and proposed an indefinite NAP with a 10t cooldown. Darrell, how are your NAP talks with them going and would you (and this is a question to Dave too) have any suggestions or preferences on where I go from there?

Shoot[/COLOR]

My Response to him:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]I really wish they had not hit you with a 10t cool-down period, for our purposes 5t would be better, but it can't be lowered without making them suspicious. An open ended NAP sounds good though, we could combine it with a set turn NAP from Darrell and make them less likely to suspect a dogpile (since they don't necessarily end at the same time).

As I already have said, I'm slightly concerned that they're negotiating NAPs with you two and not me (though, I do not know Rego's status on this, so my paranoia may be unfounded). Two ways I would like handle it on my end, and would appreciate input from both of you, I could:

1) Propose an NAP to NoSpace. Given my lack of diplomatic contact prior to this, it would look suspicious. However, they may just think I'm intimidated by their power rating.

2) Sign an MDP with one of you two, if either of you would be so willing. However, this would indicate that we are working closer together to NoSpace.

Darrell - Rego asked me last night if I could tell him who else had paper. I said I didn't know but would check next time I went in game. I intend to put him off telling him as long as possible.

Shoot - I'm 8t away from Astronomy at max science - I realize you're research is already going to be hurting from the liberalism bid. However, is it possible you can loan me enough enough gold to supplement Darrel's liberalism payoff? Probably 60-70 each turn, am not sure yet. This would be so I can start getting East Indiamen in the water ASAP, since I need to move them to you and Darrell's continents to pick up troops. Additionally, I'm banking that NoSpace will have Frigates (they're only two techs away atm) when we attack. I'm going to need a at least a 2-1 edge to protect the transports and move troops. Would repay you after I get to astronomy so you can push to gunpowder.

Dave[/COLOR]

Darrell's response to that message:

][COLOR="Yellow"] Interesting...shall we make it a four way NAP then? I will tell them I talked to Shoot and he was open, and that Dave was interested as well. A four way open ended NAP with 10t cooldown. The lack of rego might make them think we are looking in that direction.

I think regoarrarr must believe he can beat Nospace to Liberalism on his own. He does not take into account our little deal . I would reply like this...just tell him you checked and could not trade maps with Nospace yet. Don't even mention Shoot or myself.

[/COLOR]
And finally, my response to Shoot's message regarding Rego and NAPs with NoSpace.

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Hey Shoot!

A little bit of this message will overlap with my response to you and Darrell. I put my thoughts on NAPs with NoSpace in that message. Sorry to hear the plan fell through Yes, that city needs to be a huge priority when we do attack - knights will be annoying and frigates even more so. I ran some test in world-builder yesterday (which I won't bore you with here :P) on possible fleet compositions I could use. I'm assuming NoSpace will have frigates when we attack, since he's only two techs away atm. At present, I'm going to need to spend 106 hammers (two EI) to defend against every 60 hammer frigate, not even including ships to actually transport the units. Hopefully we can forestall Rego gifting him iron when the war begins.

Thanks for the intel on Rego, definitely changes my perception of things a little bit. Having enough troops in the backlines (and hopefully navy if I can manage to get enough of a surplus) definitely needs to be a priority.

Regarding Buddhism, changed my approach yet again. and decided to accelerate it's spread so I can use use theocracy to get 2XP on the upcoming EI. I built a monastery in Edessa and am currently pumping out missionaries. The first is en route to my barracks city and due to arrive in a couple turns. Will be in touch again soon regarding its spread.

Regards,
Dave[/COLOR]

[oledavy]

This turn is best surmised by this quick message I sent to Darrell:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Darrell,

Just finished my turn - here is the update:

- I approved the 170 gold deal
- NoSpace got paper
- I have 177 gold available for next turn
- Alphabet research can now complete with a 15 (+11) gold surplus.

Dave[/COLOR]

I made a micro mistake this turn. I deluded myself into thinking that I didn't need a theatre in the globe city, just 6 theatres period. I was wrong, and consequently wasted 15 shields on a theatre oh well, c'est la vie.



I maximized the +100% for creative theaters to do a three pop whip and net a grand total of 42 hammers to overflow into the Globe.
I whipped excessively this turn to get many of my cities beneath the happiness cap. I'm seriously considering switching into some military builds for some more HR garrisons to ease the pain - but I'd rather not waste shields and gold on obsolete units. Is this a mistake? Would appreciate some advice on this front.



The great Person in Jerusalem is due in five turns. I finally have determined how I'm going to manage the civics switch. At the start of the golden age I'm going to convert to Buddhism and revolt into bureaucracy and organized religion. I will conclude the golden age by switching into Theocracy and Vassalage as I begin to gear up for war. The one thing I'm unsure about is whether to run caste system or slavery, it might be too early to make the switch. However, my workshops would benefit from the hammers and I could use unlimited specialists to pump out some Great Scientists for Academies.

[Commodore]

I made a micro mistake this turn. I deluded myself into thinking that I didn't need a theatre in the globe city, just 6 theatres period. I was wrong, and consequently wasted 15 shields on a theatre oh well, c'est la vie.

You know what warms the dusty cockles of my ancient heart? Reading the term "shields" rather than "hammers". Thank you.

[oledavy]

@Commodore - never could quite shake that habit from the Civ3 days

The NAP with NoSpace went forward, apparently he got Darrell's message and asked me about it over G-Chat. The terms are as follows:

- Open-Ended NAP, with a 10 turn cool-down period.
- Deal is enacted with the understanding that NAPS with the same terms are signed with Darrell and Shoot.
- The NAP takes effect as soon as all three are signed and implemented.

Well, if NoSpace didn't know the three of us had close ties, he knows now. This attack cannot be a dagger and instead going to have to be a sledge if there is to be any chance of success. I'm now entitling our invasion: "Operation Sledgehammer" I expect NoSpace will pursue closer relations with Rego to counter-balance us, creating a bipolar world. While I'm thinking of names: in honor of this NAP - the public declaration of our alliance of sorts - I think we need a snappy name. I was thinking "The Triple Entente," after the Allied powers during World War I.

I feel a little guilty for doing this to NoSpace, but not so guilty that I will change my course of action. All is fair in love, war and Civilization 4.

[oledavy]

I just realized the music GA is still available and we have drama....

The bad news is Rego has literature.

Netting this GA would allow me to use the Jerusalem GE/GS for a more useful academy/wonder rush while using the Artist for a Golden Age.

However, we're in the middle of the liberalism push right now and I'm don't think I could drop out long enough to get music without ruining our chances and annoying Darrell and Shoot.

At least Rego is heading for liberalism too. After the conclusion of the race though, I hope he doesn't decide to run for music - it would be a tossup between the two of us.

[oledavy]

More Diplomatic Messages.

Darrell's Response to my Turn Update

[COLOR="Yellow"]Okay thanks Dave! I suspect they will have Education nex turn too with that GS, so we are neck and neck. I didn't see Philosophy discovered however, so keep your fingers crossed . 177 gold should be plenty for next turn as well.

Darrell[/COLOR]

Shoot's messages in regard to the NAP with NoSpace and the planning of Operation Sledgehammer.

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]I just send Nospace back an email saying I've previously liked the length of time that a 10t cooldown on normal speed provides (which is actually true in addition to serving my purposes here) and suggesting that a 7 or 8t cooldown on quick could be equivalent to that. I made sure to word it just as a possibility and to say that I'd really be fine with either that or a 10t so as not to raise their suspicions.

Again, I wouldn't be too concerned about Nospace not approaching you as it only seems that they approached me because Darrell made them. Would you like me to try to include a clause saying the NAP can be cancelled without the cooldown if one of us attacks a third party? I could always just use the MDP Darrell and I have to explain it (can't be reneging on pre-existing agreements here) but leave the wording open-ended enough to apply to you too. Without that though, even if you were attacked I would immediately activate the cooldown, so their attack likely would not extend much beyond an initial sneak-attack on a border city.

While I understand the issue with Frigates, it is also worth considering that the sooner I get gunpowder the sooner I can attack their iron city (on my home continent remember) and deny them the ability to make frigates. Also, isn't Nospace actually three techs from Frigates (GP, Chem and Astro? -- and the later two are pretty expensive ones at that, although they could probably still get them out in time if their iron isn't disconnected). Also, I could always fund you after I finish GP and have Darrell repay you in full before repaying me (if the gold Darrell will be giving you back doesn't cover all of your expenses by itself). Hard to say whether you having Astro or me having Gunpowder gives us a greater benefit, but I'll be interested to hear what Darrell and you think of that choice.

Shoot[/COLOR]

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]Also another small note (sorry forgot to mention it in my first message) but there's also the possibility that we may not need your East Indiamen to be in the open ocean to threaten Nospace cities. For example, an East Indiaman sitting in my Moai city of Bursa is 4t away (only 3 movement and one disembark) from two different Indian cities, one of which is their Confu holy and Moai city (and at least from my borders with them, that fork is just as threatening as any place for the East Indianmen on the ocean, so initially we would have no need to expose them except after a city raze). Just worth considering we may not need to get into conflicts with Frigates initially assuming I can keep my coastal cities safe enough to put the ships in and not have the city razed.

Shoot[/COLOR]

Darrell's latest ledger update:

[COLOR="Yellow"]Just an update, I've asked for 170 gold this turn from Dave and 50 gold from Shoot. Updated Ledger for turns 90, 91, 92, 93):

Dave = 64+165+170+170 = 569
Shoot = 29+63+30+50 = 172

Payback (assuming Nationhood)
Dave = 569 + 600 * (569/(569+172)) = 1030
Shoot = 172 + 600 * (172/(569+172)) = 311

The payback will adjust of course if shoot takes over the funding duties. I'll pro-rate the payback schedule as well. An update...with the massive Meditation overflow, Philosophy is a one turn tech. Liberalism will also get good overflow and should be a two turn tech. So it looks like just two more turns of funding to go! I think regoarrarr is trying to bulb Liberalism. He used his GS for a golden age, and has the Great Library and some wonders, so its possible he can get a GS quickly. Its a *three* horse race now!

Darrell[/COLOR]

Shoot and I had an extended chat on a variety of topics, so, the tl;dr version:
- His attempts to get an 8t Cool-Down period for the NAP failed and he's going to agree on a 10t one as well. We both agreed that this was far from ideal and our attack would have to be a 'sledge' to have any hope of success.
- He is 6 turns away from completing the Mausoleum of Mausolleous, and is about to pop his own GP for a golden age civics switch.
- After liberalism we're going to work on trading maps around with Darrell's help to try to get a complete picture of the world.
- We discussed getting maps of NoSpace's empire. In the event we cannot pry NoSpace's away, Darrell and Shoot have enough early screenshots and knowledge of his land to patch together a map of his territory.
- We began talking about the execution of Operation Sledgehammer. We both agreed coordination would be extremely important so as not to end up like the "Coalition of the Willing" in RBPB2. I told him I had Sunrise ded-lurking and would hit him up for tactical input (I sent a PM to him yesterday).
- We floated some ideas about me loaning my ships to the person who had troops loaded aboard it, making the navy and army operations work together better. I agreed this is a good idea, but am a little reluctant to do a mass gifting of East Indiamen. He suggested that I be in control of all the navy, even if it wasn't under my banner, but this is kinda a cheap compromise. If I gift my fleet to someone, I'm not going to harry them on where to move it. My preferred settlement would either be: A) I retain command of all the naval forces, or B) We trade East Indiamen for Jannisaries and other ground units from Darrell and I have my own army on the ground. Shoot seemed resistant to the latter idea. However, I think the best way we can manage this coalition war is us each having independent self-supporting armies and navies. I really do not want to be left out of the ground war - with no promoted units after the war, no GG fo the heroic epic, and a weaker claim to the spoils of war.
- He's onboard with funding liberalism so I can get music, details are still in the works :D

I pitched this idea to Darrell:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Darrell,

Whenever you get a chance tomorrow morning, we need to talk. Shoot and I developed a micro plan in which he takes over funding liberalism research for two turns while I nab the GA at music to pop for a Golden Age - at which point I take over all funding for liberalism from that point on. I just wanted to check this idea with you and make sure all the numbers work out before accidentally ruining our chances at liberalism.

Dave[/COLOR]

His Response:

[COLOR="Yellow"]Sure, its all the same to me as long as I got ~210 gold/turn :-).

Darrell[/COLOR]

So, I guess we're good for Operation Music Man :D

[oledavy]

Another turn has come and gone, one turn closer to liberalism I'm crossing my fingers that Darrell wins this race. I finally started work on the Globe Theater in Damascus this turn (now just to get Nationalism and some units to draft out of it). I sent 170 more gold to Darrell, leaving me with 7. I slashed production and went all out commerce without damaging my wonder bids, and got my max gold up to 232. Music Here I Come! The only other thing of significance was that I finally gained visibility on Shoot's graphs, so I shifted my EPs to NoSpace to try to gain visibility on his research.

Now, some screenshots of the Templar Empire.


The Core Cities


The Far East


The North


The Northwest


The Southwest

[oledavy]

A message from Shoot to Darrell and I regarding Operation Music Man and the conclusion of the liberalism deal:

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]A heads up: I can trade maps with Nospace this turn. I realized I forgot to look last turn so I loaded up that save and indeed I could also trade with them last turn, so they've had paper for two turns now. Next turn Darrell request all the gold you need from me so that David can run full research himself to get the Music GA.

Shoot[/COLOR]

The final ledger from Darrell regarding our liberalism deal:

[COLOR="Yellow"]Okay, asked for 210 this turn. With overflow from Philosophy, Liberalism is a one turn tech. Been working lots of sub-optimal tiles to make that happen (i.e. coast!) :-). Final ledger, and adjusting for the correction cost of Nationalism (which for some reason is higher than it should be):

Dave = 64+165+170+170 = 569
Shoot = 29+63+30+50+210 = 382

Payback (assuming Nationhood)
Dave = 569 + 718 * (569/(569+382)) = 998
Shoot = 382 + 718 * (382/(569+382)) = 670

I'm starting to wonder how good an idea this was...its going to take me forever to pay you guys back .

Darrell[/COLOR]

Shoot messaged me about my EP spending:

[COLOR="DarkGreen"]Dave,

A really quick note, but do you think you could possibly switch EP spending off me, as I just lost your graphs? It's not a huge deal or anything, but I just figure with our current plans our EPs can be put to better use than on each other

Shoot[/COLOR]

My response to him:

[COLOR="DarkOrange"]Hey Shoot,

I already did on my last turn and switched my EPs over to NoSpace. I was trying to get to the point where I could see your graphs - was not my intent to deny you my visibility.

On that note - something to discuss. Should we all switch our EPs over to NoSpace? Denying them visibility and maybe getting their research would be nice, but I'm concerned this would raise their paranoia. On the other hand, perhaps all of us switching EPs to Rego as a bit of misdirection would be a advantageous.

Regards,
Dave[/COLOR]

I started using colors in an attempt to make my long diplomatic posts easier to read