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RBP4 [SPOILERS] - Shaka of Zulu (sunrise089, regoarrarr, and friends)

Ellimist Wrote:Well I guess we can stop taking bets in the lurker thread.

Well how was the smart money running?
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regoarrarr Wrote:Well how was the smart money running?
I don't want to give too much away, but...
NobleHelium Wrote:Why would we need to ask that? regoarrarr is always on his own side. tongue
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FFH-20: Jonas Endain of the Clan of Embers
EITB Pitboss 1: Clan/Elohim/Calabim with Mardoc and Thoth



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regoarrarr Wrote:It was suggested to me that I should post here that it is my intention to declare war on plako next turn (T199)

Will you take the first half of the turn, or the second?
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DMOC Wrote:Will you take the first half of the turn, or the second?

Declarors don't have a choice. They will be first half.
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
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Well the wireless network that allows me to connect to PB games is not working. So I can't declare right now frown
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regoarrarr Wrote:Well the wireless network that allows me to connect to PB games is not working. So I can't declare right now frown

I think DoW'ing in the tech thread is allowed?
I have to run.
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novice Wrote:I think DoW'ing in the tech thread is allowed?

Yes, that works.
Completed: SG2-Wonders or Else!; SG3-Monarch Can't Hold Me; WW3-Surviving Wolf; PBEM3-Replacement for Timmy of Khmer; PBEM11-Screwed Up Huayna Capac of Zulu; PBEM19-GES, Roland & Friends (Mansa of Egypt); SG4-Immortality Scares Me
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So, I did it. Declared war on plako. I expect he and ASM will be.... pleased? with that lol

So I thought I'd at least write down my thoughts on this. At least I can get it on paper before this war starts. I do recognize that this is likely to hand LP the game (if he didn't have it in the bag already). So why do it?

Well, I've recognized that I / we / the Zulus have very little to no chance of winning this game, for quite some time. And so then what do we do?

Let me step back a little bit to talk about past relationships.

At the tail end of plako's war with WarriorKnight, I was VERY annoyed with the fact that plako essentially "bullied" his way into taking land that I felt I at least had a claim to it. Now, that was totally his right to do so. He had the big army, and so it's certainly a fair option to just try and grab as much land as you can get away with it. But it didn't earn them very many friends in Zululand.

Then in the mid-game, China went all "passive-aggressive" - spending tons of EPs on us, militarizing the border, which made us fairly nervous.

But let's talk about LP. We had pleasant out of game relations, but in-game, early on, it was just as frustrating. He wouldn't OB, didn't want to strike a deal with Christian missionaries, etc. You can check my thread for more examples of that.

So let's fast forward to the mid-game. China is going passive-aggressive on me. I have no active NAP with LP either. So here we are, still trying to dig ourselves out of the hole we put ourselves in with the GLH gambit, and our 2 immediate neighbors (who are #1 and #2 in score) are both neutral to hostile. I would be VERY surprised if there wasn't some good long discussion between the two of them about allying to attack ME.

In the end, the best deal on the table was a long NAP between ourselves and LP, till T250 I believe. I kept this on the down low, and I don't know if this is well known to either lurkers or other players.

We made talks about attacking plako later on, around T200 but nothing concrete.

Somewhere around there, plako wanted to extend our NAP. There were lots of discussions back and forth about that. I was under the impression that folks were trying to coordinate a dogpile on Lord Parkin, which I wasn't completely opposed to. Even then, I recognized that he was the "top dog" and bringing him back to the pack was in Zululand's best interests. I was trying to walk a very thin line here. So I signed a NAP to like T185 with plako, under the impression that a) I could sell that to LP that I couldn't attack plako due to that arrangement, and b) that would give plako and his coalition the chance to attack LP with my non-interference. Later I found out that everyone had NAPs with LP till T200 so that didn't happen.

Now we're here. LP asked me to declare on T199, with the hopes of going first on T200 to take control of the seas between the 3 of us.

Again, I realize that this is likely to make LP win, and it may even be that everyone concedes within the next few turns. If that happens, I'm okay with it. IMO, LP has played the best game and thus deserves to win. Also, he has treated us the best out of any of the other powers, so if I'm going to play "kingmaker" I'm okay with him being the beneficiary.
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But again, let's look at it from a Zululand perspective. I have no chance to beat LP as it currently stands. This is obvious. When I asked antisocialmunky a month or so what he would do if he were us. He said "NAP up and tech". But even then, you saw the beaker numbers - I'm ~45K beakers down. Not gonna happen. I need more land, and even then I don't know if I could catch up.

Let's say I join in to the global dogpile against LP. Let's even suppose that we are successful (I have my doubts). What do we get out of it? Due to the map design, we have no real chance to hold any gains in ex-Parkinstan. It was certainly true pre-Astro and I think it's just as true now. How could we hold any gains in Parkinstan against any type of effort from plako or nakor or luddite (who would have actual land borders).

I think any land gains we make have to come from plako. It's just geography. Interestingly, LP claims that as a "reward for my loyalty", most of the land gains, should we make any against plako (Again, I have my doubts) will go to us rather than him (even as he's the one who's pulling all the weight militarily). We shall see on that, or if it even makes any difference (again, I have my doubts). But maybe it increases our chance of winning from 0.01% to 0.1%? lol

What it boils down to is what's in it for Zululand? What incentive do we have to dogpile on LP, if we don't gain anything from it? It's all well and good to say that "if we don't do anything than LP is going to win", but what's the incentive for me to join in if we do dogpile LP, then say plako (or Locke, or Nakor) is going to win?

I've wondered if plako had said something like "We'll give you 5 or so cities (the ex-WK lands in the northeast) if you help out against LP, as we take cities from him", what I'd have done. #1 I don't think they'd ever do that, and #2 I'm not sure if even that would be worth it. Maybe everyone should give all of their cities to one power and see if that's enough lol

Anyways these posts have been kind of rambling. Feel free to ask questions and I'll try to answer them.
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So I don't claim that my thinking is "right" or even "not completely ludicrous"

But I did think that it was worth writing down at least some of what I was thinking, for posterity.
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