Werewolf 7 game thread

[Meiz]

Wall of text warning! These might not be in any logical order, but oh well...

I do think that Lewwyn got killed by the wolves because of laying low and playing in slightly suspicious way by purpose. No wonder the wolves thought of him as PR. His play was just suicidal and that's coming from me! . I should have known that Lewwyn pulled plain villager once again, it's just the way things work . Same as me getting a villager role every time (doesn't that look like a wolfish comment? whops... ). We even lynched the claimed seer once again

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Thanks MNG for the kind comments . It's unfortunate that my first reaction regarding these kind of praises is always "he must be a wolf who tries to play the soft side of me!" (must be a scooter trauma from WW2). But everything you've done so far hasn't made me suspect you even a bit.

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Roland, not sure how to defend against your suspicions, but I hope you get a clearer read as the game progresses. Truth be told, I think some of you are giving me a bit too much credit for deception cababilities, since I personally feel I'd be a horrible wolf . And yes I acknowledge that this comment is something that a wolf could say to dismiss the possibility. But it's the way I honestly feel

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Catwalk, outing the vigilante at this point doesn't seem a wise move at all. Role claim is powerful down the line and can always be countered only by another claim.

Why single me out? That struck me as odd back then, and it still does now. I think I was too distracted at the time to really press the issue, but now I have nothing but time, so I'm going to make up for it. Catwalk, what did you mean by this? Why did you single me out - someone whom you felt (and, I'd wager, feel ever more strongly about) overreacted to accusation? Why was I so important to help get the uberfish bandwagon rolling?

He singled me out in WW6 and urged me to vote Rowain, quite early in the game. Exactly for the same reasons he explained now It was odd then and it's odd now, but again this is something that doesn't go against the previous play of him.

I still see Catwalk playing in line with WW6. I doubt that a wolf would have been that pressing against uberfish (yes, there is always a "wolf would never do that" - argument, but I don't see it in this case). As Ichabod said to Catwalk: "You wouldn't insist so much if it was a wolf ploy to get cover."

His reactions and accusations against uberfish after the claim was understandable to me, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=42
Once he believes a theory, he will do everything in his power to convince others.

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Ichabod has played just the way I'd expect and IMO his posts have been very open and helpful. I get the same feeling than in previous games on him actually having to do a lot of thinking. In result of that, he brings up a lot of good points that other have missed. And the points do not look like Something that a wolf could come up with cheat sheet. I started to collect quotes of him to prove a point and noticed that I would have to quote almost all of them . Everything he has done so far speaks of a villager to me.

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I'm getting villager vibes from Injera's post http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=216
Still in the neutral camp. I don't see that he has acted as suspiciously as some of you think.

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Roland has played very villager like, the latest example being the conversation between him and Zakalwe. As someone said, it would be really hard to fake the style of his. He has been logical and consistent with his posts and suspicions. For example a post like this feels so honest and would seem really hard to fake as a wolf, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=100
There are lot more, but again I can't bother to quote them all (and it's probably not that useful, you all know how to use search function ).

I think he has had numerous chances to start campaigns (even small) or paint suspicions against different people I see innocent, but has passed. I get a feeling that he honestly tries to avoid making accusations against villagers, instead of a feeling that he is a wolf who tries to get innocent people lynched. Or that he is a wolf who tries to get to the good side of villagers and stay out of clashes.

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Gaspar has made some good points, but I'm still not nearly ready to put him in the innocent camp. Some examples of things that bother me:

Overreacts to MNG's opening post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=97
"But this reminds me of WW4 MNG, and its a definite "sow confusion" move""

I don't see how anyone can pull this kind of resolution from the message.

In the same post he speaks of Roland: "Now I know its been a while since Roland has played but the Roland I know does not act with this sense of relief at someone stepping off his case. All through this post you just see a giant exhale. The Roland I play with would be taking this as a clear sign that zak is a wolf and going after him in a 47-page screed. This feels and sounds more like "Thank God, zak is off my back.""

Seemed a bit too far fetched theory to me. I also find it odd that he picked to vote MNG out of the three suspects, just for momentum.
Roland said it well:

you talk about wanting more discussion and then park your vote on the safest bet out there? I mean, granted we really do need to get MNG talking, so I can understand wanting to exert a little pressure, but to say it's because he's the only one with any momentum? Huh? Unless I'm mistaken, zakalwe was still pretty high on the lynch tally, and a few other names are starting to pop up as well. Maybe I'm reading too much into things, but it just seems to me the only "momentum" behind MNG is the fact that he's been dead silent, and his initial post seemed to be pretty stock MNG joking (although it certainly pushes the boundaries at that, even).

But then again this was at the beginning of the day, where there is not much to talk about. So I can somewhat see this just as an attempt to start conversation. His answers for Roland didn't stand out that wolfish to me.

Later there was a vague post regarding "something odd" between me, Rowain, Zakalwe, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=273
What did you mean by this? Serdoa asked the same question, but I don't remember you answering.

Then there's the strange Rowain vote out of nowhere at the end of the day, as Serdoa and Rowain pointed out. Which he reverted after being called for it, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=310

I'm not sure what kind of chatter did he expect after uberfish having 9 lynch votes. Makes me think if he might have just wanted to appear active without joining the uberfish bandwagon.

So in sumamry, even though there has been some good posts from Gaspar, some actions of his seem quite strange and I'm far from counting him out of the potential wolves.

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Twinkletoes is still high on my suspects list. My last points against him still stand:
- Running for mayor without really committing to it (seems like a joke)
- Too serious response for uberfish's claim (no wtf - reaction)
- Scolding for quiet play a bit too early (trying to appear active and useful?)
- The plan of following post counts is really neutral and too objective way of suspecting people. Something that would come useful for a wolf.

As uber also pointed out:

on the subject of TT, I don't like him invoking the post count argument while not posting anything much himself. I'd have expected him to fire back at Zakalwe whether he was a villager or wolf tbh, so this is pretty surprising.

I think TT took a martyr attitude regarding his availability to play. It's likely that he is honestly busy, but that doesn't mean he can't be a werewolf. If I was a wolf in his situation, I could easily see myself trying to play on emotional side of others.

Now that I know Lewwyn is innocent, I can more easily agree with his analysis of TT :

I do think normal TT is more lively more risk taking, and possibly more inclined to guess rather than use post count as a measure of a wolf.

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Sareln has been acting odd, as others pointed out. And on the other hand, he has been so suspicious as a villager in previous games too, which makes things a bit more hard for us

He changed his vote from TT to uber, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=252
"I'm glad to have heard from Twinkletoes, and am happy to switch off him at this point. I'm not sure enough of anyone to push a new name, so I guess I'll vote Uberfish to do a 2 vote swing from TT to Uber. That way it starts to build some protection against late swings."

And the situation before the change was:
7v: Uberfish ( Catwalk, Zakalwe, Scooter, Meiz, Jkaen, Lewwyn, MNG)
5v: Twinkletoes89 ( Sareln, Erebus, Roland, Gaspar, Serdoa )
2v: Zakalwe ( Uberfish, Injera)
1v: Injera ( Rowain)
1v: Sareln (Ichabod)

So his vote puts Uber quite safely in lead of TT. This is more incriminating if TT is revealed to be a wolf later. But to me it seems like Sareln didn't need much convincing from TT to change his vote. He did it right after TT's first explanation post.

(TT voted uber in the next post making it even more clear).

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It's hard to get much anything out of Jkaen.

Jkaen votes TT for lynch and Serdoa as mayor, both very popular choises and therefore easy votes, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=149

Later he thinks he voted Sareln as mayor when in fact had voted Serdoa, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=242

Regardless of the role he plays, it's clear that he doesn't have time to really pay attention to the game.

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And then there is scooter.........

What first caught my attention was his accusation against Zak, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=190
The line "Watch him. He's wildly inconsistent right not, flinging accusations against people to keep attention off himself" sounds quite paranoid btw.

Me and Serdoa then defended Zakalwe quite vocally and he backs away, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=196

First of all, when I think of scooter, the last thing that comes to my mind is him making careless accusations with temper and without thinking first clearly. Also someone said how unwise it is to a wolf to attack Zakalwe early. I'm suspecting this might actually be what happened. He latched onto Zak, quickly noticed that the battle cannot be won right now and backed away. Also, a wolf could try to appear "humane" this way (trying to give villager vibes).

His reaction to uberfish was similar to mine, but he was quite sure of his innocence even after people had pointed out some suspicions regarding the claim, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=57
Naturally it's good for wolf to defend a villager who might be lynched because of strange behavior. Basically the same thing he did with me in WW2, only in smaller volume.

He dogpiled MNG (after Zakalwe and Gaspar), http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....stcount=98
Voting someone just based on low activity is the easiest vote a wolf can make. I'm pointing this out, because he now did the same thing against Jkaen.

At the end of the day, scooter made a nice post against uberfish and followed it by a vote. Again another easy vote (but still understandable for a villager as well). http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=230

But the problem I see is that there is still not any original thoughts in his post, which seems to be a general theme of his play so far. He took:

- "wolf gambit for fun" from Zakalwe
- "He came up with 3, and they were basically the 3 possible ways to react to it 1) believe it and push to lynch him = eager wolf, 2) don't believe it = wolf with knowledge, 3) wait and see = wolf afraid to commit. I mean, that's basically the only real ways you CAN react to it right??" from Ichabod
- "I do think the case could be made that uberfish may just be a normal wolf without powers, as it's less of a risk" from Catwalk

So to me it seemed like he tried to present believable theories of his own when in fact there was nothing new in there. I'd imagine it's quite hard to invent an original theories as a wolf.

Suspects Erebus, because of the Vig comment, even when Zakalwe mentioned the same thing before Erebus. He also says:
"Which would make sense if he's the vigilante OR if he's a wolf who knows he ate Lewwyn last night."
But IMO wolf would ponder between the two options to appear not knowing what really happened. All in all, seems like a stretched excuse to attack someone (untypical to scooter IMO).

The latest comments regarding Roland, Catwalk and Sareln don't have much to back them up either. Just some hunches and so forth. I'm not saying that this is incriminating evidence. A villager could have done the same things as well. But to be frank, I have much higher expectations of scooter and I feel like he is not playing as well as he is capable of + is missing original thoughts of his own.

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After going through the posts I feel like we could find a lot of wolves from the list of: Scooter, TT, Sareln, Gaspar, Jkaen

The most confident vote at the moment goes against scooter

Phew, that was a lot of work!

[Gaspar]

Only have a minute, but...

Good post, Meiz, even if I don't agree with a good bit of it.

As for the things which seem to have you suspicious of me, it's quite funny to me that a lot of them are the same things zakalwe has done. The vote on MNG had more to do with odd opening post + low activity. Don't always fully spell out my reasons up front because I'm trying to learn something and less information is often more there. I feel like I've explained most of my votes eventually, however.

I addresses the bit about you/Rowain/zak/et al in a recent post which I can't quote because of phone, and that was the nature of my Rowain vote. Maybe you're right, I should have known generating more conversation was hopeless at that point, but I knew the way the vote was going was bad for the future even if uber had turned out to be a wolf, so I felt like I had to try something. I believe that's proper play, so I'll continue to behave in such a manner.

Anyway, while I agree with the consensus on a lot of things, I think we mostly just keep clearing people because we like them or because we agree with them. I'm looking for something which says I'm village rather than "Gaspar is cool" so I'll keep poking about until I find it, even on presumed innocents. My definitely innocent list right is about 4 deep (Me, Serdoa, MNG, Meiz) and my very highly likely to be innocent list is about 3 more. I'd like to remove doubt on those 3 and move on today, hopefully tripping up a wolf in the process.

[Meiz]

Well, I like your answer which might be an indication that I'm prone to agree with anyone who says I'm innocent . As I said, generally I feel you have played well, but there are these tiny bits nagging at the back of my head.

[scooter]

Alright, I'd like to address something real quick - as I'm getting lumped into suspicious-land due to my activity level.

I had no idea I was signed up for this game... If you look through the WW7 signup thread - I never signed up. However, I apparently expressed interest in the WW6 postgame thread, but that was when I WW7 was going to be in August and not September... It just never really occurred to me to pop into the WW7 planning thread and take my name off the list, as I totally forgot I was even on the list. So when I got my role PM from Mardoc, I was prettty surprised, to say the least. However, I figured I could go ahead and play in a smaller role than I usually do. Note my severe drop in activity in my PBEM14 and PBEM22 threads, both of which were updated pretty much daily up until the last 10ish days.

I just don't have the time that I've had in the past, however I at least have the time to keep up with what's posted and chime in with my thoughts... My point is that I'm getting blasted for "lack of original thought" - which honestly I think is mostly bogus... but the point is, I'm going to be pretty reliant on analyzing other people's thoughts, as I just don't have the time to do what Meiz just did and dig through people's posts one-by-one and twist every post into being a werewolf post. I feel like I'm being held to an unfair standard here anyways.

I feel like because I have a history of being an active poster, anytime I'm below-average, I'm thrown into suspicion. Novice in particular had a bit of a history of low-content posts and votes with no reasons attached, and because that was the norm for him, people were okay with it. However since I have a reputation for typing a lot, any drop in that and I always get accused of "low content posts" which is just obnoxious really. Especially because if you look at my posts objectively (rather than through WW tinted glasses, ahem Meiz), you'll see that despite being low in number, several of them are actually quite long, and calling them "low content" is fairly crazy. Like this one, although it's mostly geared towards defending myself from some craziness.

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Moving on. Meiz - I'm curious... Why do you blast me for raising my eyebrows at Erebus and the vig comments, but not Serdoa who basically just said the same thing as me? Is it because I'm an easy target with some suspicion and Serdoa is a difficult target since me mostly believe him to be innocent? Your comments that I'm not playing as well as I could - well see my above explanation. You blasted me for my Uberfish post and claimed I lifted it all from someone else... which is 1) ridiculous and 2) highly ironic since your line of argument against me has already been used by other people, so you aren't exactly breaking any new ground yourself there. In fact, you seem to stick to easy targets, which is a pretty typical wolf thing to do. Just sayin.

And yes, I've tried to throw out a few theories, but honestly, I don't have the info some of you have because I've never read anything in this thread more than once. I just don't have the time. So I'm a lot more dependent on a few recent posts that have been quite good. If you have a problem with that, then by all means lynch me, because it's going to be like that this game. Sorry. I just feel like if my name was David Corperial or Cull or something you wouldn't think twice about my activity level, but because my name is "scooter" you're going nuts just because I don't have the time that I've had in the past.

[Meiz]

Scooter, I do believe you are busy. But as I said to TT too, a wolf can also be busy. You are kind of taking the same martyr attitude than TT did, which doesn't really help IMO.

You're right that one part of my accusations is related to your play history. As a matter of fact, a lot of my observations regarding different players is related on how I'd expect them to act. It's just the way things work and you stand out more than others. It's not because you don't have time to analyze each post in detail. But for example the attack on Zakalwe was so uncharacteristic. I would have never expect you to lash out against someone without thinking first, just because they suspected you on something. I'd expect you to answer the points rationally and then let others see the truth of your answers. The dismissive tone you are taking against me doesn't really help to convince me of your innocence. You used the exact same tactic against me in WW3 as a wolf

Moving on. Meiz - I'm curious... Why do you blast me for raising my eyebrows at Erebus and the vig comments, but not Serdoa who basically just said the same thing as me?

Looks like I missed that comment (there was a lot to read). Well, same to Serdoa then.

[Serdoa]

Well, we have 5 ouf of 14 players with low activity:

- scooter
- Injera
- TT
- Jkaen
- Sareln

Obviously all of them claim to be villagers. I wonder if in WW8 we'll have half the village having no time for the game? Sorry if I sound harsh, but I thought the point of the game is to find out via talking who are the wolves. If people don't talk that is simply not possible. Thats why I would really like to lynch one after the other on this list, even if that means we lose this game. Not because I don't like them or I can't understand that someone is short on time (I had this issue myself sometimes), but because it starts to get a valid tactic to simply say "I have no time", post 4 times in 4 days and thats it. And that takes away the game from this game. I can use a dice or random.org to determine whom to vote for as well in that case. The first part of the day phase is nearly over and so far we have the same people as always telling each other that they are pretty sure about their innocence and that from the remaining players half don't post.

scooter

But honestly, from my pov we can take anyone from the list above, it doesn't matter for me. Guessing around whom of those not talking is a wolf is just getting tiresome.

Btw:

(3) scooter - MNG, Meiz, Serdoa
(2) Jkaen - Erebus, scooter
(1) Ichabod - Gaspar

I might add it is also irritating that nobody is placing his vote at all. Injera, catwalk, Roland, zakalwe all were posting since the start of the day but didn't bother with voting at all. Absolutely the way to draw wolves out I am sure.

(Yes I am frustrated.)

[Catwalk]

You make good points Serdoa. I don't quite agree with voting off less actives one after one just to send a signal, but I think we lose less by voting off a less active villager and I also think there's a higher proportion of wolves.

You're also right about not voting, that gets us nowhere. I'll put my vote on Injera, both on grounds of activity (looks to me more like laying low, as he comes off as quite certain when he does post, suggesting that he's read up a lot) and because he tripped my radar both days.

[Serdoa]

Meiz, tbh I have overlooked that zakalwe stated the same. And it makes me worry about him as well.

As for why that line of thought makes me worry: After reading what happened in the night, I asked myself how I would react to it as wolf. I mean, as wolf, I would know whom I killed, but to fake a villager, it has to seem as if I wouldn't. Now trying to fake that, it is easy to overdo it I think. You sound to confused or not interested at all. You sound as if you had no idea at all when in reality, every villager will have thought about who was vig-killed and who eaten and why - because it might be important to give a hint about who the wolves are, how they are thinking. For example, trying to find and kill the powerroles is something I think I remember zak and scooter like to do, whereas I think Gaspar said he thinks it is more important to stay low, so he would probably rather kill the people who are considered innocent (like you or myself). Especially in this setup the wolves are so overpowered (even without our vig being a dumbass) that they don't need to hunt the powerroles imo - but if Lewwyn was their target, they are clearly doing it.

Now, as a wolf I would try to get everyone at the same knowledge-level I have, making it easier to cover a possible slip. And that is why I am suspicious about Erebus and zaks comment.

[Meiz]

As for why that line of thought makes me worry: After reading what happened in the night, I asked myself how I would react to it as wolf. I mean, as wolf, I would know whom I killed, but to fake a villager, it has to seem as if I wouldn't. Now trying to fake that, it is easy to overdo it I think. You sound to confused or not interested at all. You sound as if you had no idea at all when in reality, every villager will have thought about who was vig-killed and who eaten and why - because it might be important to give a hint about who the wolves are, how they are thinking.

But based on this thinking, doesn't stating that "Rowain was probably vig killed" indicate that the player has drawn a conclusion like "Rowain was more suspected than Lewwyn" (I think I was the only one suspecting Lewwyn out loud?) and "Lewwyn acted like a PR". Just like Erebus described as well. I know that was the first thought that came to me personally.

I find scooters comments regarding the vig kill more suspicions, but that might be because I have my wolf glasses pointed at him . For a wolf, wouldn't it be best to ponder different alternatives what really might have happened to create an illusion of not knowing the truth?

[zakalwe]

I was really hoping to hear from Sareln before posting this, but it feels like discussion may be stagnating at this point. So I will elaborate on some of the things I saw earlier today.

Very trigger-happy vigilantes on this site. First was the bad call Kuro in WW6 and now this.

I agree that Rowain was probably the vigi target as more people were suspect of him then they were of Lewwyn. Vigilantes in general are gambles, the right player can be devastating with them, otherwise they are a huge liability.

Now the question I have is did Lewwyn do anything in particular to get himself targeted, or was it his otherwise lack of suspicious by the rest of the village?

People have been questioning why Erebus was so quick to conclude that Lewwyn was the night-kill and Rowain was the vig target. I also speculated that might be the case, and I still think that's the most likely scenario, but Erebus takes it a step further here and wants us to speculate on why Lewwyn was night-killed. This rings my alarm bells for many reasons.

• Why isn't he also interested in knowing what Rowain might have done to become a wolf target? If he doesn't look into both of those possibilites, how can he conclude that Lewwyn is the night-kill?
  
• Why does he ask others to "investigate" this rather than follow up on it himself, if he thinks it merits a closer look? As a villager under some suspicion, he should be eager to come up with a wolf lead and he would want to take credit for it. (This may obviously vary between players, but I believe it would be true for Erebus.)
  
• When Injera subsequently answered his question, saying that they might have thought Lewwyn had a power role, Erebus failed to comment on that, at all. If he is so interested in having this answered, why doesn't he comment at all when someone does answer it? (And why didn't he offer an opinion of his own, initially?) Maybe the answer he got wasn't the one he was looking for.
  

So what might this investigation of "why was Lewwyn night-killed" bring up? Well, just going from memory I could tell you straight away that Lewwyn was suspicious of Sareln, and wanted to go after him today. If Sareln is innocent, he would make a very logical wolf target for a mislynch. So one of the reasons why Lewwyn was killed (beyond the general lack of suspicions against him) might be that the wolves were hoping to frame Sareln. By posing this question, Erebus might hope that someone will raise the point that Lewwyn suspected Sareln, casting suspicion on Sareln, and after Sareln is hopefully lynched, on whatever villager was unfortunate enough to raise the point. A bit of a noob wolf play perhaps, but it seems plausible to me. And like I said, I don't think that post makes a lot of sense for a villager.

The other post that didn't sit well with me was MNG's first post today:

Well that sucks.

I was planning on voting Rowain. Goes to show that I really am not very good at figuring people out.

Roland was one of the first ones to make me think innocent... so he must be guilty if 2 of my three guilty suspects were innocent.

To me, he just comes off as incredibly eager to get a bandwagon going against Roland here. And even though this is only day 2, that is a really bad reason to vote for someone. He thought Roland was innocent on day 1, so therefore he must be guilty on day 2? Seems like he just decided that he wanted to vote for Roland and saw his previous innocent read on Roland as an obstacle that he had to somehow dismiss, rather than a reason to reconsider. In contrast, he later has no qualms about trusting his innocent reads and using them as a basis for further arguments. For example, he later attacked Injera based on the fact that I was "clearly innocent". (On the page before that, I was listed as "probably innocent", btw.) With this post, MNG leapt right back up on to my suspect list. He didn't comment further on why he had voted for Roland when he switched off him, either, which I would expect to see if he was just voting on a whim to generate a response.

Based on the above, and taking into account what others have posted, I'd say my top two suspects are currently Erebus and MNG.

@Sareln. This does not mean you're off the hook. I still want to hear from you.