zakalwe Wrote:Not really, I just wanted to get my initial response to you out, before turning to new theories. It's early morning here, and I was being distracted by my son. He is not very articulate, but he has no problems getting his points across. Kind of the opposite of you, in that sense.
(Couldn't resist, just trying to ease the mood. No offense intended.)
Cute. Very cute. :neenernee I got a chuckle out of it, if only because it's not that far off. Thanks.
Gaspar Wrote:Other than that, I think there's a lot of low content or low signal-to-noise ratio players.
Here's my question: Why have we decided Ichabod is innocent already?
The thing that's getting me about you this game, Gaspar, is this is exactly how you come across (emphasis mine). Then you follow it up with a vote on Ichabod, whom to me has been as helpful as ever? I gotta say I expect better of you. I don't know how you've played in the last few WW games, but I remember your play from WW2. You were solid back then, even if your methods were poorly understood (I gave you way more trust and leeway back then than anyone else, and it worked out for the best). I know you play your cards close to the chest, but that's now how it feels to me right now. It feels like you're simply fishing to fish. Not a good sign.
Injera Wrote:It's late here and I don't have much time, but I'm not really sure what would make zak (or anyone at this stage of the game, really) "clearly innocent."
You're new here, but many of us aren't. Us vets have seen some of these faces from across multiple WW games (some from the very first one), so we have much more experience in reading people than you might. Therefore, when we see someone who's played both a 'Wolf and a Villager in the past it makes it easier for us to spot the differences. Hence zakalwe and Serdoa tripping as "innocent" on my list. Obviously I can't speak for everyone, but I think that's a large part of it for most people. It's just something you'll either have to learn for yourself, or choose not to accept.
Injera Wrote:If zak had pushed hard against someone else other than uberfish I'm pretty sure he wouldn't have been mislynched. Shouldn't that warrant even a shred of suspicion on Cat and zak? (obviously not both at the same time.)
Yes, it should - thus part of my feelings against Catwalk (as I still haven't gotten any 'Wolf vibes from zakalwe; I'll get to that in a moment). Granted, I'm trying to temper my suspicions against Catwalk via other people's insistence that he's playing the exact same as he did last game, where he was an innocent, but I can't just let my feelings be dismissed out of hand. It's not my way, unless something big comes along to change my mind directly.
As for why I don't suspect zakalwe? I'll put it simply: when he's a Villager, he's confident to the point of being nauseating. When he's a 'Wolf, he focuses his efforts towards stirring the pot, rarely pushing directly for a kill - only slipping hints here and there, trying to sew as much chaos as possible. The two styles are in stark contrast to one another, so unless zakalwe has learned how to act egotistical while still being a 'Wolf (and if so, bravo - I'll be the first to congratulate you on pulling the wool over my eyes) I just can't see him as a 'Wolf. Not yet, anyway - it is only Day 2, and as he said we'll have time to search for deep cover 'Wolves later, when we have more information to contrast with.
Catwalk Wrote:I still think lynching uberfish was the right choice with the information available. He was being uncooperative all day, as others have pointed out. He even admitted that he was basically playing for an alibi in future games. Surprisingly (or not), he then uses his last words to cast suspicion on the two players who pursued the lynch. Anyone who makes anything of that is suspicious to me. Not just for sake of self preservation, but because that's such an easy argument to latch on to.
All I'm going to say about the uberfish bit is that the fact that it was such a landslide on Day 1 should have tipped us all off that something was wrong. If he was a 'Wolf I would have expected more effort in trying to save him. As for his last words being an easy argument to latch onto, I'll agree. However, it's a calling card of his, and in the past I seem to recall him being at least somewhat accurate. Thus, since I'm not seeing any 'Wolf vibes from zakalwe, it gets chalked up to another reason to suspect you - albeit a circumstantial one. I'd never vote to lynch you based just on that - it's too weak by far - but it's something for me to keep in the back of my mind.
Catwalk Wrote:Roland, I was addressing you because that's who I happened to be talking to at the time. I did something similar in WW6 with Meiz, I believe. If you find that suspicious, I think you're grasping for straws.
Seeing as how Meiz directly backed you up, I suppose I should just let it go - not that it really bothered me that much (I was serious when I said it was mostly curious, rather than outright suspicious). Of course, Meiz isn't exactly the most trustworthy person on my list, so maybe I shouldn't after all. :neenernee I agree, though - to depend heavily on such an argument would be grasping at straws.
Catwalk Wrote:I think Injera's logic is flawed, especially this last post. zakalwe provided very clear reasoning for both his original assessment of uberfish (based on past experience), and the change (based on lack of helpfulness during the day, basically dismissing accusations as idiocy). I don't find it to be particularly wolfish behaviour to push this hard for an innocent to hang. If either of us were wolves, it'd be much safer to jump on later and let others take the lead.
It's funny you should mention that, because I don't recall finding your reasons for lynching uberfish being nearly as convincing - especially given how prone you were to flip-flopping on your position of him. Innocent, guilty, either way you thought he should die - if only to remove doubt. That behavior above all else has made me the most suspicious of you, especially combined with my next point:
Catwalk Wrote:I don't mean it as an insult so I hope you won't take it as such, but how much WW have you played in other settings? If this is your first game you seem very sure of yourself, and I'm getting a feeling you're following wolf orders. If you've played a fair bit elsewhere, please disregard the comment.
Ironically, I get that same feeling coming from you, except where Injera strikes me as a newbie (where being sure of yourself is fairly common - just look at my first game), you don't. New to WWRB? Yes, but not necessarily new to WW in general...
I have to say Catwalk, you're back at the top of my suspects list.
Catwalk Wrote:Wild guesses on everybody's status (not providing great arguments for all, I will try to back them up with quotes later today if you want any of it explained better):
Quotes don't make for better arguments; they just reinforce what you're saying by providing a clear example of what you're attacking / defending, so this statement makes little sense to me.
Catwalk Wrote:Serdoa - innocent. Working hard to sift through information and present it in a clear manner. Still not my first choice for mayor, but seems it'll work out well.
Not an attack, just a curiosity: why don't you like Serdoa for Mayor?
Catwalk Wrote:zakalwe - innocent. I find his play on uberfish to be highly villagerish, and I don't see the fluffing around others are talking about.
Agreed, although I don't remember people saying he was fluffing around? Maybe I'm misunderstanding the word.
Catwalk Wrote:Meiz - strong innocent read, or amazing con artist. I had a strong villager read on him last game and paid off, reads the same to me here.
I don't get a strong read on Meiz either way, but to each their own.
Catwalk Wrote:scooter - wolfish. Flailing around on day 1, had an activity related excuse for it (may be true, may be a convenient cover) and looks to me like he has kept machine gunning with poor aim since then. Looks like a (legitimately) low activity wolf who's making an effort to throw out some accusations while also trying to keep up with wolf discussions.
Agree somewhat. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here with regards to not having time to commit (I don't question people's RL obligations, as I'd find it offensive if someone did it to me), but I do expect a bit more content from him. So far it seems more white noise to me. Far from enough to lynch him over, but definitely reason to push him for a bit more content.
Catwalk Wrote:Injera - wolfish. As stated before, I found his accusation of zakalwe for the uberfish play to be highly suspicious. Are you saying with your last post that two wolves were high on the chopping block when zakalwe pushed for uberfish?
I don't see where you get the idea that two 'Wolves were on the chopping block. That looks like a big grasp at straws to me. I read it as no clear bandwagons had formed yet, so the 'Wolves were content to sit with their votes spread out in order to blend in with everyone else.
Catwalk Wrote:Roland - wolfish. Jumped around with votes on day 1, was uber polite with zakalwe and now jumps him like crazy. Is highly supportive of uberfish, seems like a wolf move to me. He knows he's innocent and likely to hang, giving him a great alibi. I don't see cause for such certainty without inside information.
I did not "jump around". I pressed people whom I found suspicious in order to draw them out, and if they responded in such a way as to negate my suspicions I moved on. Once I settled on Twinkletoes I didn't move once. I put my vote on him to pressure him into talking (not knowing of his RL commitments at the time). I went after my top suspects one by one, while still pushing for explanations from other people on my list, or just people whom hadn't posted much of anything yet. I pushed to generate discussion, like only a handful of others did yesterday. Contrast that to your unwavering desire to lynch uberfish, not caring what his actual alignment was (guilty, innocent, he should hang!), and I'M the flip-flopper? Don't make me laugh. Oh, and I'd hardly say I was "highly supportive" of uberfish. Go back and read my posts again - there was hardly a shred of certainty about anything, just gut feelings and emotional response. His initial explanation post was the one that best gave me an innocent vibe from him, and even that was far from certain, but it rang true in contrast to the 'Wolf uberfish I've been tricked by in the past.
Catwalk Wrote:I will try to post more later today.
I sincerely hope so, because right now it looks like you're trying to stir up a witchhunt based on poor evidence.
Meiz Wrote:Wall of text warning!
Holy hell Meiz. I think I'm going to have to come back to that one...
Serdoa Wrote:I might add it is also irritating that nobody is placing his vote at all. Injera, catwalk, Roland, zakalwe all were posting since the start of the day but didn't bother with voting at all. Absolutely the way to draw wolves out I am sure.
(Yes I am frustrated.)
While I understand your frustration Serdoa, I must remind you that it can lead one to make rash decisions. Go have a beer and take a breather.
As for me not voting yet, well zakalwe spelled it out - my normal MO is to wait and see what unfolds, not jump out the gate with a vote. I played it a bit more gutsy yesterday, since it was Day 1 and we weren't learning anything at the time (which bothered me). Since we're past that, I'm going to be a bit more discriminating with my votes - and thus slower to cast them.
zakalwe Wrote:Based on the above, and taking into account what others have posted, I'd say my top two suspects are currently Erebus and MNG.
@Sareln. This does not mean you're off the hook. I still want to hear from you.
You raise some excellent points about Erebus that I hadn't even picked up on. As to MNG, my initial reaction was to just dismiss him out of hand as just being MNG, but seeing it from an outsider's perspective makes me think I'm giving him too much leeway based on my past history with him. Also, he's unusually quiet even for him - and I don't mean post count. I'm talking post content. I'd expect better from him, even with his sense of humor, and thus far it seems more like he's trying to hide behind it rather than it just being a natural extension of himself.
I'll echo your comments against Sareln. We have so little to go on right now I'm not inclined to vote to lynch him, but if he doesn't start contributing something - anything - that allows us a better read on him I'm going to be much more suspicious than I already am.
Alright, this post is long enough, and the more time I spend writing it the more posts I have to catch up on (the thread apparently has grown three pages since I started this). I'll try to add more later when I've caught up (and gotten something to eat - I knew it was a mistake to come straight from bed to here! :neenernee)