Werewolf 7 game thread

[Erebus]

Haven't had a chance to read everything, but I feel I need to explain my reasoning.

pretty surely wolves:

- Rowain

Some more text or rather presented it more viewer-friendly

• I really think his acting against zak didn't make much sense. Imo it was more like seeing an opening and trying to use that to discredit zak and get him killed. But it didn't feel like he believed it at all.
  
• After some other people started to question zak as well, Rowain didn't press more. Instead he disappeared. Surely that might be timing as well, but I feel that he simply wanted to let others do the work.
  
• He ignored uberfishs call, or rather stated he would save the last lynch for him as winning this way would be very stale. Ok. And 4 hours later he votes him for Mayor. Even with uberfishs explanation in between that does not make much sense for me. Rowain is a good player and knows how important the mayor is this time around. And he votes someone who is very hard to read ("I am the Owl"...), started with a risky ploy on day 1 and could as much be a crazy villager as an aggressive wolf? We have much better canditates for mayor and Rowain knows that.
  
• He has the second most postings by now and nearly no content except for trying to stir the zakalwe-lynch and ignoring the uberfish-ploy in a way that is not villagerish imo.

*fixed the list for readability.

to

1) Erebus: Why would you be so sure on Rowain being the vig-kill? Honestly, Rowain was obviously a villager, I can't believe the vig would shoot him. Lewwyn on the other hand? He has a style which can get him easily killed, especially from someone who might not be that experienced with him.

This is probably hindsight on his part, but it's very unfair to me. He was CONVINCED that Rowain was a wolf yesterday, and now he's telling me off cause "Rowain was obviously a villager". I haven't read all the posts to see where Serdoa has this sudden epiphany.

Also with Serdoa's "if he's a villager I'll focus more on Zakalwe" is very anti-village and I'm starting to lose faith in him. What if Zak and I are both villagers?

Since time is almost I'll put all my cards on the table, FAKEEDIT: Nevermind, I have 24 hours left.

Rowain generated a lot more suspicion then Lewwyn, but the bandwagons started on him never got any steam when the uberfish one got going. This could have been seen as VERY suspicious to our vigilante, who thought Rowain was guilty, but uberfish was innocent. So bang, taken care of.

Lewwyn ran seriously for mayor, but contributed lightly beyond that, most people thought he was innocent and that lowered his chances to be vig attacked, especially night 1.

However, I will admit that Lewwyn's action could be a wolf "lying low" but the heavy mayor gambit didn't seem to fit in my mind.

I never responded to Injera, because a) I was being attacked, in my opinion unrightfully, for my suggestions, and b) I didn't think the theory had much merit. His mayor run would garner way too much attention for him being a powerole (much as it did for him to be wolf).

I would have done more research (let trying to find when Serdoa forgave Rowain), but as in my fake edit I wasn't sure if today was 24H or 48H, and I have plans later tonight that I need to get ready for.

[Erebus]

In fairness, I found the post where Serdoa changes from Rowain, but it's strange.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost.php?p=177142&postcount=268 he complains that he can't get any traction on Rowain, then http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost.php?p=177146&postcount=271 he gets his epiphany and forgives Rowain with very little reasoning (such that it didn't stick out in his mind).

[Erebus]

Sorry meant to preview. No edit so here:

Post 268

Post 271

[zakalwe]

Something I don't seem to see us doing (or at least discussing) is now is looking again at the fallout from uberfish's gambit, now that we know (pretty much) what he was trying to do and that he was a villager.

One of the main reasons for his lynching was so that we would have this information to use, but I don't really see any of us using it.

Is there anything in particular that you want to draw our attention to?

[zakalwe]

Since time is almost I'll put all my cards on the table, FAKEEDIT: Nevermind, I have 24 hours left.

I have to say, this must be one of the strangest posts I've seen so far in the WW games; it's almost on par with Uberfish' opening post in this game. Why would you fake edit a sentence in this manner, instead of just removing the whole sentence?

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Lots to read after a morning out with the kids. I'll get to reading and commenting after lunch. But first, a quick question since I've been thinking a lot about it. And I'd like to pose it especially to Gaspar, because I find his observations to be strong. And because I find him so far to be honest, I'd especially like to hear his opinions. ...

What is a better situation for the wolves? To have only one clear place to put a vote? (ie yesterday with uberfish) Or to have several valid lynch targets? (ie today ... at least, as of last night) Or does it even make a difference at all?

And on the flip side, what is better for the village? I have my opinions before reading today's posts, and they seem to agree with the red that I saw as I skimmed today's posts. But for now I'm interested in what helps the village and hurts the wolves from a game theory perspective.

[Serdoa]

In fairness, I found the post where Serdoa changes from Rowain, but it's strange.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost.php?p=177142&postcount=268 he complains that he can't get any traction on Rowain, then http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost.php?p=177146&postcount=271 he gets his epiphany and forgives Rowain with very little reasoning (such that it didn't stick out in his mind).

The issue with Rowain is that I and him are pretty differently in how we engage in this game. Or at least we have a way to clash with each other. When I read his posts, I didn't take that into account. That's what I meant with clash of personalities. I clash easily with him and if I don't take care about that, I will peg him as wolf simply because I WANT him to be a wolf.

[scooter]

What is a better situation for the wolves? To have only one clear place to put a vote? (ie yesterday with uberfish) Or to have several valid lynch targets? (ie today ... at least, as of last night) Or does it even make a difference at all?

And on the flip side, what is better for the village? I have my opinions before reading today's posts, and they seem to agree with the red that I saw as I skimmed today's posts. But for now I'm interested in what helps the village and hurts the wolves from a game theory perspective.

I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I've played WW a couple times and I feel like I can contribute here.

In general, I'd argue that landslides like yesterday tend to be pro-WW, and landslides in general should make villagers feel nervous unless the target is pretty clearly a WW. It's easier for WW's to blend in on landslides, because I tend to believe voting results on landslides aren't very useful, whereas voting results on close calls can be pretty enlightening. The thing with landslides is that it's really easy for wolves to carefully place their votes because the village is jumping onto one person anyways, whereas in a close call, it's easier for wolves to put attention on themselves with illogical votes. For instance, I've seen times where we realized it was a close call between a WW and a villager, and we had too many WW's on the villager, so someone had to drop their vote onto someone else, which is suspicious and risky behavior.

So I do tend to believe landslides should be avoided unless it's really obvious... Got to go now, but I may be able to elaborate later if there's any questions on what I've written.

[Erebus]

@Zak The reason I did that, is to make it obvious that there is amplifying information for my reasoning that I didn't want to put in the post. Just in case there was some obvious holes. If you read all my day 2 posts that hint at who I think the vigilante was, you can probably figure out who I think it is. Granted recent posts are starting to make me change my opinion.







Okay, I'm having a big issue with Catwalk, reading a lot of his post. He's very flip-floppish, and is starting to respond to ANY push against him as a need to change his mind. He's playing this game very similar to WW6, in WW6 he stood in Meiz shadow, posted a lot of long, near useless posts and later admitted he was trying to garner suspicion to keep him from being eaten in his power role.

Now, he's doing the same thing, instead he seems to be standing in Zakalwe shadow and we're forgiving his aura of suspicion to easily I think. Last time he was a Power role trying to mask himself, what's his excuse this time.

Catwalk

[Sareln]

From the Defense Notes:

Roland - Ignores a series of my posts to wax about how I'm not "contributing" at the bottom of a wall of text.

Twinkletoes - Thinks Lewwyn being killed is some kind of marker and picking on JKaen as an easy target.

Injera - Elaborate on TT -> Uberfish reasoning

Zakalwe - A strange split between my being offended at him calling me a bad villager, versus incorporating that statement into later defenses.

Twinkletoes - Reiterates his point that Lewwyn dying throws suspicion on me and Meiz.

Zakalwe - Sareln does have a very unusual baseline for a villager. More on the TT -> Uberfish swing. If you thought Uberfish was the likely lynch, why give more cover for wolves to hide in?

I don't feel like sniping at Roland right now, I think he's innocent and there's no point in arguing about whether or not I'm contributing. Either I am, or I'm not, and no amount of assertion will change that one way or the other.

Perhaps Lewwyn being killed implies that either Meiz or I is a wolf (or vigilante)? It doesn't. Or at least, I don't think it does. Here's why.

If I were the vigilante, killing Lewwyn makes no sense at all. He's basically proved himself innocent to me with his taunts (awful risky for a wolf) and his high profile and frequent updates mean there will be plenty of opportunities later to try and suss out his true alignment. Additionally, I'm not worried that I'm going to be killed in the night. That same flaw which makes me always seem suspicious also means that I'm very likely to survive the first night as the wolves either go hunting for power roles or try and knock off "cleared" or "trusted" villagers.

If I'm a wolf, then killing Lewwyn is even more boneheaded. He outright tells Ichabod he wants to set up an early train on me the next day, and then all of a sudden he's killed in the night. That would never set off anyone's warning bells now would it? It's all too convenient.

As it is, I'm a villager, suspected as usual . I don't know if the wolves chose a frame-up as their likely play, or if they just felt that Lewwyn was too obviously a villager, but I'm currently working under the idea that Lewwyn was the night kill and Rowain the vigilante (see previous post for reasoning there).

@ Zakalwe - I was offended about being called a lousy villager, but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Since I find myself somewhat in the same place on day 1/ day 2 each time (under suspicion and playing defense with plain villager role) I'm more inclined to share that assessment. Maybe someday I'll get better at this game and seem less suspicious.

@ Injera/Zakalwe - My TT -> Uberfish vote, why give the wolves more cover? I parked my vote on TT to try and draw a response from him and got an answer which satisfied me. At that point the vote is between Uberfish and TT with Uberfish giving a half-hearted defense. I suppose I could've pushed for Zakalwe or Injera, but Zakalwe is reading innocent to me and there's always the danger that a partial run on Injera from Uberfish could leave a 3 way race where the wolves pick who they want to hang (Uber, TT, Injera), and there was still the outside possibility that Uberfish was a wolf (probably vanilla) himself. Given those options, I voted Uberfish. I think that cover-wise, the most telling lynch votes will be the later day ones, where wolves make up more of the voters and movements are easier to see.

As for picking on JKaen, he's being quiet and I want to push him a little and see what pops out. At the very least he'll bring a fresh perspective to things if he comments, but the only way to really guarantee a comment is to slap a vote on someone and see how they respond. Quiet, by itself, is not a problem. It's when that quiet is allowed to be left alone for too long that we need to do something about it.