September 10th, 2011, 18:07
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Erebus Wrote:Since time is almost I'll put all my cards on the table, FAKEEDIT: Nevermind, I have 24 hours left.
You're killing me. What great secrets do you have? How can you help the villager find a wolf or protect an innocent player?
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
September 10th, 2011, 18:08
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Correction the previous history was wrong, I didn't fact check the Tally.
September 10th, 2011, 18:12
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Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:You're killing me. What great secrets do you have? How can you help the villager find a wolf or protect an innocent player?
Read my above post, I thought I knew who the vigilante was and nearly ousted them to save myself. Hindsight says I should have deleted that entire thing, but I never reread before I hit reply. If I hang for it, so be it, it's my mistake and I'm not going to let another (in this case the potential vig to wolves) die in my place.
September 10th, 2011, 18:12
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scooter Wrote:I know this wasn't aimed at me, but I've played WW a couple times and I feel like I can contribute here.
In general, I'd argue that landslides like yesterday tend to be pro-WW, and landslides in general should make villagers feel nervous unless the target is pretty clearly a WW. It's easier for WW's to blend in on landslides, because I tend to believe voting results on landslides aren't very useful, whereas voting results on close calls can be pretty enlightening. The thing with landslides is that it's really easy for wolves to carefully place their votes because the village is jumping onto one person anyways, whereas in a close call, it's easier for wolves to put attention on themselves with illogical votes. For instance, I've seen times where we realized it was a close call between a WW and a villager, and we had too many WW's on the villager, so someone had to drop their vote onto someone else, which is suspicious and risky behavior.
So I do tend to believe landslides should be avoided unless it's really obvious... Got to go now, but I may be able to elaborate later if there's any questions on what I've written.
Well, it seems completely in line with what I'd expect. I remember how obvious the endgame was in WW2, and that game was filled with close votes that left wolves caught with bloody hands.
By contrast, I have a difficult time making anything of vote tallies in landslides.
Lesson learned: most helpful for the village is a lot of activity, quite a few votes spread amongst several candidates, but not so many so close to the deadlines that the wolves can dictate things safely.
Does that seem like correct game theory?
You can get a look at a t-bone by looking up the bulls ass but I'd rather take the butcher's word for it.
September 10th, 2011, 18:13
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You didn't answer my question Erebus.
Why would outing the vigilante make you innocent?
Noone knows the vigilante's identity for certain except for the vigilante or the Devil if they scried them.
So unless you are one of them, you have a hunch and nothing more.
Outing him helps the wolves about as much as it helps us really. So you 'outing' them could be a wolf play to try and appear innocent whilst also helping his 'friends', or a villager ploy to desperately prove their innocence, which it never will.
"You want to take my city of Troll%ng? Go ahead and try."
September 10th, 2011, 18:20
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Mr. Nice Guy Wrote:Well, it seems completely in line with what I'd expect. I remember how obvious the endgame was in WW2, and that game was filled with close votes that left wolves caught with bloody hands.
By contrast, I have a difficult time making anything of vote tallies in landslides.
Lesson learned: most helpful for the village is a lot of activity, quite a few votes spread amongst several candidates, but not so many so close to the deadlines that the wolves can dictate things safely.
Does that seem like correct game theory?
Meant to reply when you asked this MNG, but yes, my belief is landslides are easiest for wolves to hide in. A few will be in the landslide, a few will be off it and nobody will be able to decipher it. Its why I both tried to get alternate theories going despite knowing uberfish was a goner and why I'm not spending any time on analysis from the day one votes.
In general vote analysis is only good once you know enough alignments to narrow scope. You're far more likely to catch someone on tone or bad play than a day one or day two vote ON day one or two. The vote histories can be more telling later on down the line - for example how we figured out Irgy and Rowain at the end of WW2 from the scooter vote. *Hums a few bars of "Glory Days"*
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 10th, 2011, 18:25
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Erebus Wrote:Correction the previous history was wrong, I didn't fact check the Tally.
Erebus, I've checked your tally against mine. I think the history error you mention is dropping Catwalk's vote for Injera.
This is what I have, we are agreed on the tallies and who is voting for whom.
Day 2 Lynch Tally
3v: Erebus (Zakalwe, Catwalk, Gaspar)
2v: JKaen (Scooter, Sareln)
2v: Zakalwe (Injera, Serdoa)
1v: Scooter (Meiz)
1v: Catwalk (Erebus)
1v: Sareln (MNG)
Not Voting (4/14): Ichabod, JKaen, Twinkletoes, Roland
History:
Blog | EitB | PF2 | PBEM 37 | PBEM 45G | RBDG1
September 10th, 2011, 18:26
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The issue was Twinkletoes, that certain people were coming after me for my basic Rowain was killed by vigilante theory, and my seeming certainity that it was him.
I had come up with what I thought was a very plausible theory of who was the vigilante and why Rowain died, that I followed blindly. This mistake lead me to getting attacked by several people.
I thought I was going to hang, so I almsot ousted my assumed vigilante to save myself. This would help tie my actions together better and perhaps save me from the lynch.
If my suspect was not a wolf, then the wolves would target him, and if I was right the vigilante would be dead preventing him from claiming to protect himself. I'd have done the wolves work for them.
If my post did it's job proficiently and convinced people that my claim was valid and that my story makes more sense, they might believe I'm innocent. Thus why I said it was two possible innocents (not guaranteed).
And Twinkletoes, you write as if I had ousted him already, but I haven't. I've been doing a lot of thinking and basically came up with reasoning similar to your's.
I've made a huge mistake and I have no clue how to get myself out of this. Assuming I'm right, I almost selfishly ousted the vigilante to try and save myself, and that would have been a bigger mistake.
If I hang for my stupidity, so be it, I deserve it.
September 10th, 2011, 18:31
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Yup, I missed Catwalks vote, thanks for catching it.
But when I was talking about history errors, I meant you leaving off MNG's first vote, and errors from day 1 tallies/histories.
September 10th, 2011, 18:34
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Erebus
Just making less and less sense honestly. Also, I hoped the votes on Jkaen would bring him back, but that doesnt seem to be working and an inactivity lynch feels premature on day2.
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