Werewolf 7 game thread

[Gaspar]

Re: Roland, even when you're being nice, you're kind of a jackass. Just saying. I think I have an unwarranted reputation as a hothead - I'm only sometimes a hothead. And also, if you think my post was so great, why don't you have any feedback on it. :P

Re: Ichabod - Its overstating to say I suspect you. I suspect pushing too hard the idea of likely innocents is dangerous, first. And of the likely innocents you have the smallest body of work. Its not that lots of posts = innocent. Its that lots of posts = more opportunities to screw up. Since you've posted less than, say zakalwe or Roland, its easier for you to avoid mistakes, that's all. I don't suspect you on the basis of your posts, which are well-reasoned and helpful. Its that I suspect you're savvy enough to replicate that as a wolf and we haven't given you enough opportunities to screw up. Also, I think you and Serdoa are the only two players to have had no suspicion whatsoever placed on them, and I find that a bit dangerous.

I also find it peculiar that you have a hard time reading me. For one, you were copied to the wolf email in WW6 and as such you should see my thoughts on playing wolf. Beyond the part where I don't enjoy it and don't believe myself to be good at it, I have a very different sort of strategy towards the kills than the wolves appear to be employing in this game. There's no way I wouldn't have gone after eating you or Serdoa by now if I was a wolf. I also wouldn't, for example, initiate this kind of conversation with you as a wolf - as a villager I know this is bad for my health, as people will see it as me trying to discredit an innocent and a village leader. As a wolf, I'd never take that chance. As a villager, I think its important to consider everything before making decisions.

Anyway, this is mostly noise. I attribute this to my own failings as a player in getting a good read on you, but I do believe you to be a likely villager. I just feel like its important to continue to question our assumptions because thus far our assumptions have just led to mislynches.

[Roland]

So I went to bed, but I couldn't sleep. I kept thinking about things here, and specifically some things you had said Gaspar. I couldn't take it anymore, so I dragged myself back on here - and this is what I find greeting me. :neenernee

Re: Roland, even when you're being nice, you're kind of a jackass. Just saying. I think I have an unwarranted reputation as a hothead - I'm only sometimes a hothead. And also, if you think my post was so great, why don't you have any feedback on it. :P

First of all, I hope you're at least somewhat joking there, otherwise I'll be a little offended. :neenernee I certainly was joking with the Hulk comments. Anyway, don't get me sidetracked. The answer to this is twofold: 1) I've already answered many of your points in my earlier post, so go read that. 2) I'm here now to give some feedback, so strap in.

I just feel like its important to continue to question our assumptions because thus far our assumptions have just led to mislynches.

And it's this point that dragged me out of bed because I couldn't stop thinking about it. I agree with you in your assessment. Where I differ is in the conclusion. Here's how I see it:

The more I think about things, the more I think the idea that we've got a 'Wolf roster dominated by inactives is on the right track. I agree that thus far our assumptions have been leading us astray, but let's take a look at some of those assumptions, shall we? Uberfish tried a left-field gambit to draw out the 'Wolves and generate discussion. That failed miserably, because too many of us got stuck on the idea that either a) only a 'Wolf would pull something like this, or b) only a piss-poor Villager would do this. Either way, uberfish had to hang. Erebus was doing OK until his "fake edit" bit. Certain people couldn't let that go, and his subsequent posts only furthered his downward spiral in the eyes of his prosecutors. Now here's the way I see it: both times were led by Villagers, not 'Wolves.

Going along with that, something about past games sticks out in my mind. As a Villager, I was always curious as to what went on behind-the-scenes in the 'Wolf camps. I remember reading, on more than one occasion, that a common theme was that the 'Wolfs would more often hang back and let the Villagers come up with the grand theories, and they'd find ways of going along with it. Now, obviously this only works to long - after all, you can only follow the pack so many times before it becomes too suspicious, too obvious, and too easy to pick out with a little change-up (like what Serdoa pulled yesterday). But what if you could do that, and not get caught? What's the biggest advantage for the Village? Discussion. What's the biggest cover for a 'Wolf? Silence. We have a handful of people who are skating by on virtually nothing because we fail to question them on it. Moreover, most of us are too busy chasing our own tails to see this - and this is exactly what the 'Wolves want! It always amused me, in a wry sense, to hear the 'Wolves of past games talk about all the wild theories the Villagers would come up with as to why someone did this or that, and how 99% of the time it was so completely off the mark as to be laughable. In other words, the 'Wolves thrive on chaos, and so far we've been doing our damndest to harbor as much chaos as possible. I'm not blaming anyone specifically, because in a way I think we're all guilty of this - as much for our inaction as our actions.

Anyway, to tie this all together: I'm really starting to think the idea that we have more than one inactive 'Wolf is the closest to the truth we've come (as a Village) all game. Nothing draws 'Wolves out better than putting two of them on the block at the same time, and as much as I'm really starting to wonder if Jkaen is in fact not a Villager (call me paranoid if you want), I'm not willing to burn a mislynch on someone who may very well get modkilled anyway. Not without having a better sense of his alignment, anyway, and right now he's just as likely to be a 'Wolf as a Villager - at least in my eyes. So, who does that leave? Well, Sareln is the obvious target, but you all know how I operate by now. I don't like bandwagons, and I don't like following along with everyone else. So, I'm going to take a rare moment out of character and step things up a bit earlier than I usually do. Day 1, no one wanted to follow me on Twinkletoes over uberfish. Day 2, no one wanted to follow me on Catwalk over Erebus (and I WAS right there, and NOT in hindsight damnit). Day, let's try turning the heat up once again - Twinkletoes.

As far as I'm concerned, Twinkletoes and Sareln are the two quietest, most suspected people we have right now. I've given up on Catwalk for the time being - he's probably a Villager that I was blindly hunting out of spite and paranoia, and if not there will be time to catch him tomorrow. Serdoa, zakalwe, Ichabod, and Injera are all people I'd swear are innocent. Gaspar and Meiz are heavily favored to be innocent in my eyes right now, despite my earlier doubts. Scooter and Catwalk have tripped my radar quite a bit, and I was seriously tempted to continue on with either of them after yesterday, but now I think I'd be mistaken in pursuing them. At the very least, I think it's too risky a play to try right now, with the stakes being so high. Jkaen, of course, is away - and very likely to get modkilled. If he's a Villager, nothing we can do about that, but I don't think it's worth risking another mislynch just to possibly get a 'Wolf, or save a modkill - although someone smack me upside the head here if it's a better tactic to lynch him. That leaves Sareln and Twinkletoes, and I for one would feel much better if both of them were about equal on the block. At the very least it should press them to talk more, since their lives depend on it - and the victory of the Village if they are in fact innocent. I know Twinkletoes has spotty availability, but pressuring him has worked in the past, and even though I sooner suspect Sareln than Twinkletoes I don't want to give the 'Wolves another runaway landslide to hide in. I want to make them work for it this time, so apologies if you are in fact innocent Twinkletoes.

This is a game-changer, for me and for the Village (if anyone follows me on it, anyway - I think Serdoa and Gaspar may be the only ones crazy enough to follow me on such a stunt). If I'm way off base in any of my theorycrafting please don't hesitate to tell me - I've got no blinders on. The way I see it, though, this is the best shot we have at catching a 'Wolf. And as I've said repeatedly, I find I get my best insights into people when you pressure them into giving a response. Emotional reactions don't always tell us much, but people don't have to have a breakdown (be it ballistic like Erebus or simply a big "F you" like uberfish) in order to glean insight into their being.

That's all I have for the time being. Serdoa, zakalwe, Ichabod - I'm looking to you three to pick apart my ideas. If any or all of you think it's terrible, I want to know it - I respect your opinions and your analyses. I'm just tired of banging on pots and pans to get people's attention only to be ignored, when someone like Serdoa can drop a crazy suggestion in the 11th hour and get a significant following without nary a word. I want my ideas to be taken seriously for once - even if it's just to poke holes in everything I've said. I can live with being wrong; I can't live with losing without a fight.

Sorry for all the raw emotion, and I hope you can understand this one better than some of my others Ichabod. I'm going back to bed. Hopefully now that I've gotten this out I'll be able to sleep.

[Injera]

First off, I'd like to say we're getting some really great discussion here. Despite the bad outcomes of the first two days, we're definitely starting today off right.

Injera:I tend to think he's a villager, but I want to hear his take on the other players. If you could say some things about each player, i'd be thankful, Injera.

Will do. I'm working on it right now, though I won't finish it before bed tonight.

I'm going to answer this with my own thoughts, but I'm very interested in what you have to say Injera. Throughout almost the entirety of this game you've struck me as Villager, and I must say the more time goes on the more I think you're going to be one hell of a good Villager in any future WW games - and this one. What are you thinking that you're not telling us here?

I guess the way I'm looking at it is that if I was a wolf during Night 2, the only thing I would care about would be eating the baner, as he only needs to get one good bane to give us another day. Because of that, I'm not caring a whole lot about whether someone is suspicious or not; there's no guarantee that a somewhat suspicious baner will get enough pressure on him to be forced to claim.

Because of that, I don't think they would hesitate to eat a TT or Sareln. They might hesitate on scooter or JKaen since they could probably force scooter to claim if they really pushed today, and JKaen is awol. That would leave the "quiet" group to include MNG, TT, Sareln, and Ichabod. If all of those are innocents they got pretty damn lucky with a 1/4 shot or a scry; if two are wolves it was only a coin flip. I think that's a good reason- independent of any other analysis- to focus on the "quiets" today. I think most of us that have weighed in today are on the same page anyway, though, so it a bit moot at this point.

Also, to put a vote out before bed, I'm going with Twinkletoes89. We really need something more than "show up for 10 minutes, vote for every single candidate." I know you're busy, but is it even possible to leave less of a trail?

[Injera]

Just saw Roland's post ahead of mine. Just to avoid any confusion I had not read it yet before I wrote my post.

[Roland]

Also, to put a vote out before bed, I'm going with Twinkletoes89. We really need something more than "show up for 10 minutes, vote for every single candidate." I know you're busy, but is it even possible to leave less of a trail?

1) Great minds think alike. If we don't watch out, someone (like me) might accuse you and I of buddying up to zakalwe!

2) I don't know, why don't you ask Jkaen?

Alright, it's quarter after 2 in the morning. If I stay up any longer I'm just going to devolve into outright silliness, and be dead tired all day tomorrow. I'm really going back to bed this time. Goodnight.

[Serdoa]

Haven't read the (long) last Roland-post so I can't comment on his take on TT. For the others, I would just like you to consider that TT changed his vote relatively early to scooter - with enough time that others could change as well. He really took a risk there. Not like Roland who posted his vote 5 seconds before time was up.

That said, we don't know scooters alignment. If he is a wolf, TT's switch would be village. If he is a villager, TT's switch could be a wolfish move. But I don't see a wolf TT switching. He stated it in his own post and he was right: He was taking a big risk with that switch and Injeras post is already accusing him of switching on all 3 candidates. He knowed what he was doing but was trusting MY judgement. I don't believe a wolf TT doing that - it is unnecessary. Especially as it seems we are in agreement that our wolves are good at deceiving and staying in the shadows. TT hasn't done neither, despite his low post-count.

Another point I think is unfair (and not something I would expect from villager-zak) is pointing out that he feels TT is playing differently then WW1. Excuse me? Injera was freaking out earlier because I think scooter mentioned some behaviour going back to WW3 and he (rightfully) told him that this is some time in the past. On this terms, WW1 is an eternity away.

Lastly I would like some people to page 68 (I'll do it myself later after work) zak and scooter discussing. Post 670. Shortly before scooter explains his post on uberfish on day1 by explaining that he has "lashed out at uberfish 2-3 times before at that day already". zakalwe comments on it by stating basically that what scooter said is untrue. In a very, very calm way. It sounds for me like whispering "hey buddy, thats not consistent with reality, check it". Honestly, scooter was under suspicion by zak and then scooter states something untrue and zak... accepts it? He does not even ask for an explanation for this inconsistency in his post. Lastly scooter then explains that all that "lashing out" on uberfish only happened in his head. And nobody comments anymore on it. Wasn't there something about wolfs often misremembering facts simply because they have to keep up two realities (in thread-knowledge and real knowledge) all the time?

And thats only the last thing I found only in the exchange today. I remember seeing something else but I had to skim through the thread as I should be at work already, so I'll check it later. For now, tell me that this is standard zak-behaviour as villager and I tell you that you are a wolf.

[Catwalk]

Lots and lots of text... I'll readily admit that I'm drowning in all the information and may not be a whole lot of use. I think I'll sit out the next WW game and lurk it instead to see if I learn anything. Seems like my inability to process information keeps putting a target on my head, whether I try or not. No hard feelings about that, of course.

I think I'll be laying low from here on out, same as scooter said earlier (and yes, I know that got him suspected right away). Also for activity reasons, I'm finding it hard to make time for detailed analysis and presentation. I'll be contributing if I find something I think is worth sharing (rather than add to the noise), and I'll do my best to read up on everything. I'll also be addressing specific accusations towards me, and I'll post who I think is more likely villager and more likely wolf. If pressed hard for reasons, I probably can't offer much.

I'm kind of iffy on zakalwe. His recent posts about duct taping himself for all of 5 minutes seemed way weird. No sense in hanging him now, but he may well become my top suspect later as a deep cover wolf.

I don't hold any particular suspicion towards Serdoa, Meiz, Ichabod, Roland, Gaspar or Injera.

Sareln, Jkaen, scooter and TT are my current suspects. For various hunches and reasons stated before. I think the chances of finding 2 wolves here are good. I agree with not hanging Jkaen, and I agree with the notion of silence benefitting the wolves. Incidentally, that incriminates myself. My apologies for that, but I really can't keep up with this at full pace.

[Serdoa]

Ichabod, I haven't answered your question about my voting for scooter yesterday. But it was partly because of feeling like it. Roland was sure about Erebus being honest in his posting style and reading it I have to admit I was overly harsh to dismiss him outright. But Roland opened with that my eyes - I am not sure still if that really was what he intended but anyway.

As for why not go for catwalk: If I have to decide between scooter and catwalk, I take catwalk. Simple as that. Well, and Erebus asked for scooter - so that surely biased me. Plain simply I have suspected scooter anyway and getting that hit from Roland made me reconsider and go by my feelings. You know, you asked me shortly before deadline why I am switching and I tried and tried to explain it in English and could not get it put into words. Basically my thought at that time and what I really wanted to tell you in time was: No matter how much evidence I presented against Erebus and how deep a hole he made for himself, I didn't feel that he is a wolf. My head pointed at him but my heart didn't.

[Roland]

Haven't read the (long) last Roland-post so I can't comment on his take on TT.

For what it's worth Serdoa, my "take" on Twinkletoes in that last post is that, while I suspect Sareln more, I don't want another early landslide, and IIRC he already had 3 votes against him. So, I decided to join zakalwe (for once :neenernee) in putting pressure on Twinkletoes, and thus trying to equal things out.

As for my last minute scooter vote I explained that earlier, but the gist of it boiled down to 1) my Catwalk vote wasn't getting any more traction, 2) I've seen you do late swings before, so that was consistent with Villager Serdoa, and 3) I believed in Erebus' innocence, while I wasn't so sure of scooter (mild suspicion, but nothing I'd lynch him over) - better to kill an unknown than someone whom I was fairly confident was a Villager. It didn't work in the end, and who knows? Maybe it would have just been trading one innocent for another, but at the time (and given the minimal window of time I had) I thought it was the best thing to do.

[zakalwe]

Serdoa, zakalwe, Ichabod - I'm looking to you three to pick apart my ideas.

I don't mean to be sarcastic, but it seems like the idea is simply to put pressure on TT? I am already on board with that.

Serdoa thinks it's unfair that I question why TT has changed his behavior dramatically since the previous game he played. I concede it is a long time ago, but I'd still like to hear him explain it. I have explained my own actions in great detail, so I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for some insight into the minds of other players. In a nutshell, we need to get TT talking. The same goes for Sareln and Jkaen, too, for that matter.

Regarding your suspicions towards me Serdoa, you have biased yourself and are now reading everything I do as suspicious. For example, if Scooter and I did not engage in discussion with each other, I'm sure you'd see that equally as much as a confirmation that we are both wolves. It's a shame, because you usually have very interesting observations, but now everything you say seems to predicated on an assumption that I know is false. I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on who the wolves may be, if you start with the assumption that I am innocent.