[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[timski]

Excuse me for being unduly nervous, but on the T24 screenshot it looks like our Worker and Settler are on the same tile, which doesn't seem right, since one Worker should be on the Copper and the other on the Flood Plains, and the Settler on neither.

[Gaspar]

I'm interested in competing theories, or collaries. Honestly, you've been playing some stiff competition lately. You're better than your palmarès indicate.

Thanks for the kind words - oddly, all of my games have had at least one opponent that's probably a top 10 player on the site except 14. Probably not a coincidence that it was the closest I came to winning.

On the original topic, just a few examples of that theory being false of the top of my head - Kyan's excellent performance in PBEM4g was underreported. Athlete/Lewwyn in PBEM6 reported very well but were lapped by SevenSpirits. PBEM10 Tatan was best reported but meatbalz/mackoti won by a lot. PBEM12 Nakor and I posted a lot more than Kyan and RefSteel, etc.

I think a better theory is generally when a team posts a lot, it is an indicator of a well-planned and cohesive unit. Not necessarily a turn-player with many dedlurkers - that can go either way, as the turn-player feels a requirement to update well and the dedlurkers feel a need to comment, but a lot of it is often spam. But a team - nospace in 13/17, nospace7 in 23, seven/ranamar/lewwyn in 19, etc. Generally if there's a lot of meat to their thread, there's also a lot of meat to their gameplay.

Sorry for the hijack.

[Ceiliazul]

Sorry for the hijack.

Au Contraire, thanks for popping in! We need input on some favorite games for cities, as well as heroes/villians for units. If you've got any let us know.

(This theme is so much fun, has it been done before?)

[Ceiliazul]

Ceil Takes a Chance



The city of Duck Hunt was founded as planned, and started a scout. (Timski, rest easy ) Stonehenge is nearing completion, and copper hooks next turn... and none of these things involve taking a chance.



I was initially surprised that the workers didn't start a mine. Until I saw his settler. They've cleverly completed a road directly to the fortress city spot we identified earlier... here's how I see Commodore's next few turns going:

Commodore's next 5 turns

• Settler moves to the bluffs, founds t26
  
• Workers both mine next turn, finishing the mine t26
  
• Both warriors stay put, able to protect both cities if I move
  
• An Axe is hurried along to kill my precious goomba!
  

They don't even need to divert for another warrior! This is the turn I either need to leave the area, or take a chance. There's a freshwater lake blocking my path to the next opponent, even getting any further contacts is dicey.

We've already detailed how we can get an axe out in time for defense if needed, so... roll the dice:

warrior v warrior 50% WINS 1.6/2 (4XP)

Credit to: http://nardsofdoom.deviantart.com/art/Goomba-157580459

Commodore is in a world of hurt. He can't possibly move out his settler without better defense. His workers face the chance of getting stranded if I attack next turn. Commodore, buddy, sorry dude. I think you're getting some RNG payback for the unbelievable early battles of PBEM26. Surprisingly, I even kept my fortify bonus! He has 1 warrior left, and if he counterattacks he'll see ~20% odds. Next turn Charismatic gives its first returns, 2 promotions! That's likely C1/Shock.

Of course, he could still kill me this turn at 20% odds. Not a terrible idea actually, because if he wins he can resume his plan as normal. If he loses that combat, then best case is he delays 4t while building warriors. If he defers combat, he still has to pull back and build more warriors, so he might as well take the 1-in-5 shot at freedom.

Wow, what a rush!

[Ceiliazul]

Demo Update

I was NOT the first to settle my 2nd city. Both Dazed and Kyan had point increases, with no certain way to judge who got the city. (This is why it's a big deal that both pop and tech count for the same amount of points. )

Reasons I think Dazed got the city:

• Rival power increased by 3k, and we think Dazed is that rival. His city sizes 3,1 give him another power point.
  
• Kyan is overdue for a tech, while Dazed just got one.
  
• Dazed is IMP, so it'd be embarrassing if he didn't score the first settler
  

Timski, you penciled in t22 Bronze Working for Dazed... but there was only a 5k global increase in power on that turn. BW is worth 8, so that would take a unique set of coincidences to work out. Can you look at that again?

Meanwhile, Commodore whipped his Capital for that settler, likely getting some serious overflow, just like we did. Now that he's short a warrior, I'm guessing he wishes he could overflow into an axe! As it is, he doesn't have copper mined, so we'll have to wait and see.





Normally we would be able to do some land area analysis to see if that 2nd city is coastal. Unfortunately the settle occurred on the same turn as everyone's 3rd ring culture, so the land numbers are quite muddled. Bummer that.

[timski]

(Timski, rest easy)

Well, there is a derth of completed road 1N of Duck Hunt, so whatever you're planning has changed from earlier discussion: Your original early Flood Plains road idea made a lot of sense, speeding up everything. I obviously don't mind you doing what you want to do, but it does make it hard for me to make micro suggestions if I don't know what's going on in your head!

Commodore

That said, I willingly defer to your head on military moves. You've consistently played far more aggressively than I would have, and showed the value of early blocking.

...And that was before hitting Commodore's Warrior. Ouch. The Ghost of Pedro's Vengeance (Sian in RBPBEM26) is with us! At this point Goomba has lost Commodore a good 4 or 5 turns: Dead Warrior for 10 hammers, diverted 10 hammers into second Warrior, Worker moves gimped, Settler built and doing nothing. And if we can delay them another 4 or 5 turns... Low odds, but Commodore may take a shot at Goomba, since if they won they'd at least be able to get their Settler moving and deny us 2 promotions, and if they lost, well they were going to need another Warrior or 2 anyway. However, the promotion argument works both ways: If they lose, we'd gain even more experience. And having just whipped the Settler, I agree Commodore can potentially have another Warrior out immediately (albeit still "wasting" hammers).

One wildcard is that Commodore sends their Settler to a second, unseen horse site. If they think it will take another 5 turns to get their Copper, Chariots may be a stronger move. They have Wheel and Animal Husbandry. So if the Settler disappears, make that assumption.

GingerEagle

I'm sure you'll post a shot of GingerEagle's land soon, but for the benefit of any other lurkers, GingerEagle's 2 Flood Plains are NNW of their capital. No Copper sighted yet, which likely means the Copper is in the fogged tile 2NW of Crystal Palace: So GingerEagle's second city will probably look similar to our own, except their's will be on a grass hill for added defense. Likely the eastern hill, to get the health and (internal) trade benefit of the river. In which case their dot-map presumably envisages settling the choke hill on our border, grabbing all their eastern resources. If we managed to settle B1 (green site) first, they'd be pretty-much forced to settle on the forest tile 1N of their Cow, which is an inferior site, almost any way you look at it. Unfortunately their choke site doesn't require Iron Working, so is a likely third city - unless they think they need an early port.

(For future reference, the new sim is missing the hill NNE of Crystal Palace, and GingerEagle's Deer is roaded. There are also an errors around Bear: WNW is water not land, and Rice needs to be added 1N.)

C&D

Timski, you penciled in t22 Bronze Working for Dazed... but there was only a 5k global increase in power on that turn.

I see 18.75 average rival power on T21 (GE 22, Kyan 19, Dazed 15, Commodore 19) and 21.25 average on T22 (GE 22, Kyan 19, Dazed 23, Commodore 21). Am I missing something?

On turn 25, Commodore is rival worst power at 21, since they are -2 from your Warrior kill. I'll start by assuming GingerEagle did not build a Warrior, and is still on 22 (explained later). To get the maximum at 26 and the average at 23, Dazed presumably rose to 26 (likely 3+1 population plus a Warrior), while Kyan teched something for 4 soldier points - the Wheel. Alternatively Dazed did nothing (remaining on 23), while Kyan lept up 7 points to 26 - Wheel, Warrior and City #2, or Archery and City #2.

I can't resolve that yet, because there's no clear relationship between the gaps in Kyan's discoveries and their rough Beaker cost. If Kyan did take the Wheel on turn 18 (still a possibility, assuming they also lost a Warrior that turn), then Archery now would fit, although I'd have expected them to prioritise Animal Husbandry. A late Wheel also fits (with Animal Husbandry on turn 18), especially if they don't (in combination with their second city), need roads to get the Copper connected to their new city (say, if it is on a river, and the new city goes straight into Axe production while the capital does something else - all likely moves).

Finally, what of GingerEagle's potential Warrior build? This could not have taken 2 soldier points from Dazed, because Dazed either did nothing, or reached 26 maximum with a Warrior and a city. Meanwhile, if Dazed had remained on 23, Kyan must be leader at 26, leaving no missing points. Ergo whatever Dazed and Kyan did, GingerEagle didn't build a Warrior**. Given the proximity of our scouting Warrior, chances are GingerEagle still has their second Warrior close, or something part-built at their capital.

Hopefully we should be able to tidy up the Kyan/Dazed unknown soon, when the other settles somewhere.

(** Unless I've made a fundamental error on Kyan/Dazed prior, so don't take that as absolute truth, just very likely.)

[Ceiliazul]

Eggs In One Basket

Edit: Timski, is there any reason Duck can't build scout-scout-axe, get the scout out 1t earlier? The FP road and copper mine both finish this turn, by the way. Worker2 went mine-road instead of road-mine, is all

I have a 27% chance to end Commodore's game basically right now. Why on earth are the workers piled onto that tile? If sheep are that urgent, the workers should be standing 1E on the hill, out of range of my warrior. Commodore, you tempt me sorely.

I'm going to eat breakfast before deciding this one:

[timski]

is there any reason Duck can't build scout-scout-axe

Originally, overflow: Chopping into a Scout tends to lose hammers, while chops into the Granary directly are flexible. Scout then Axe (with Granary in between) also neatly flows such that the Axe can be whipped at size 2. But an extra Scout first may work just as well. The obvious question is, why 2 Scouts?

I'll let you eat breakfast...

[Ceiliazul]

Originally, overflow: Chopping into a Scout tends to lose hammers, while chops into the Granary directly are flexible. Scout then Axe (with Granary in between) also neatly flows such that the Axe can be whipped at size 2. But an extra Scout first may work just as well. The obvious question is, why 2 Scouts?

I'll let you eat breakfast...

I mean Duck Hunt can build:
T25 - Build Scout. Flood Plains.
T26 - Scout. Copper
T27 - Scout. Copper (finish EOT)
T28 - Axe. Copper
T29 - Axe. Copper
T30 - Build Granary. 2 chops into Granary.

Oh, and, I'm going for the workers.

[timski]

I mean Duck Hunt can build:
T25 - Build Scout. Flood Plains.
T26 - Scout. Copper
T27 - Scout. Copper (finish EOT)
T28 - Axe. Copper
T29 - Axe. Copper
T30 - Build Granary. 2 chops into Granary.

Short-term there's no longer any overflow going into the Granary, which means the Granary is 2 hammers short on T32, thus completes a turn later.

Edit: In contrast 2 Scouts, the last overflowing in the Granary works fine. Albeit pushes the Axe back 2 turns.