[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul and Timski go To War: Brennus of Spain

[timski]

Commodore's move is baffling. With 3 tiles of road complete, everything in the stack could have finished on the forest hill. Possibly, Commodore:

• Belatedly intended to settle on that corner hill, and didn't want to chance the Workers to another wandering unit.
  
• Failed to recognise Goomba's double promotion and assumes Goomba will be out of action, allowing both Warriors to whack it next turn.
  
• Somehow is hoping to lure Goomba 1W.
  
• Has executed the most poorly timed misclick in RB history.

Breath baited.

[Ceiliazul]

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
And never breathe a word about your loss...

Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And---which is more---you'll be a Man, my son!

Well, faced with incredible payoff, I have to do it. Hamstring Commodore, gain THREE workers?? I have to do it. All I really have to lose is a 10h warrior?? I have to do it. Oh Absolom, what the hell were you thinking?



Wow. Commodore, when you eventually read this, the poem above is for you. You risked it all, my friend. But honestly, you could have prevented this debacle. Why did you put your workers on that tile, tripling the risk for no real benefit? For that matter, why wasn't the stack on the next tile East?

Why I did it: Cost/Benefit analysis. I'm risking 10h to kill 155 hammers! Similar to a spear attacking a knight, I didn't have odds but the hammers made sense. Low cost if I lose, huge payoff if I win.

Demo's indicate I'm the first to work copper, though doubtless I'm not the only team with the mine finished t26.

Edit: In contrast 2 Scouts, the last overflowing in the Granary works fine. Albeit pushes the Axe back 2 turns.

With Ginger Eagle building away from me, and Commodore on the ropes, I do favor 2 scouts. We don't need the defense just yet, but we do need to know what's on those spits. Also, shadow analysis does indicate that our spit ends with a 1t gap to Commodore's land:



Shadow analysis also gives another excuse to showcase KING GOOMBA! I was tempted to rename the warrior Ghost of Pedro.

If we do get 2 scouts, it would mean one to see how far our spit goes, and one more scout to run thru Commodore's lands to visit the Southern opponents.

[Ceiliazul]

Worker Bounty

Initial thoughts on the sudden influx of workers:

Road to Contra site on the way back?
Arrive near Duck Hunt just in time for pasturing cow?
Existing workers can afford to head back toward capital?

(Copper mine and FP road are done, FYI)

[timski]

Pedro has been avenged! 2+3 Workers! 3 promotions on Goomba! Commodore 15 turns behing on turn 25: "I'm risking 10h to kill 155 hammers!" I'm utterly amazed.

First thought was Settler in place of Worker #3 at Marios Bros. Second thought was "axe rush!" Third thought was Kyan now has two rushable opponents, and must be counting Commodore's disappearing military with glee.

Roading back depends on how fast we think we can get a Settler out. I'm contemplating trying to steal Commodore's Flood Plains by settling 1S of planned Contra. Roughly a (edit) T35-40 plant - can we hold Commodore off that long? Cows certainly. Duck Hunt benefits from early Rice, because post-Granary, a whip from 1 to 2 takes 7 food to recover - 1 FP, 1 Rice. Ergo Rice gets an extra person-turn, which is worth almost anything else we can do with the Workers at that point.

Will be back later with more.

Edit: On second reading, I'm unsure about the Rice. We can survive without it. Also Stonehenge and Granary out of Marios Bros looks perfect, followed with a Settler, Axes? Getting a Worker over there to do the mine chop shouldn't be too onerous. Woah. First casualty of war is indeed the plan.

Key question is: Are we going to Axe-rush Commodore's capital? After that, most other things fall into place. For example, if we're planning a rush roading to their border now makes a lot of sense. Granaries in first, maybe Barracks? But after that we'd have 2 cities whipping military, which would inevitably delay settlement.

...Maybe I should re-phrase that question: Are we going to rush Commodore's capital, or is Kyan?

One brief footnote on the Worker which you probably spotted already: With the road, Commodore can potentially hit anything that moves onto the Beaver with their Warrior. At this stage they have nothing much to lose, so I'd expect them to at least try and threaten the loot.

[timski]

Note that Commodore never took control of the southern mountain range (due to turn order?), nor have they scouted north, so still have no idea what any of our land looks like.

C&D reveals that Commodore wasn't the only player to lose a Warrior: Commodore's power is net unchanged - one Warrior built, one lost. But rival average has dropped from 23 to 22.5 - someone else also lost 2 soldier points! Minimum is still 21, so it was not GingerEagle, who was on 22 before. So again, one of either Dazed or Kyan lost a Warrior. Specifically whichever was on 23 before, since the maximum is still 26. If whoever settled first isn't working their Copper, maybe that's because they're having to fight for it?

At this point I have no idea exactly what's going on in the south, nor does this help resolve who was first to the second city. But this is surely good news for 2 reasons:

• Commodore's woes are masked in C&D - none but us can see they both built and lost a Warrior, and their whip overflow could have gone into anything.
  
• If Kyan and Dazed are still at each other's throats, Kyan might not be heading to Commodore's capital anytime soon.

In short, this turn is about as good as it gets. The only blip on the horizon is that GingerEagle appears to be keeping their head down, letting everyone else fight it out while developing 16-bit technology.

Added: Somewhat concerned that Commodore may march their remaining Warrior straight towards our lands. While 2-moving Workers can be extracted safely by hugging the coast if need (1E of Beaver->Old Contra hill), Goomba may not be strong enough to counter. If Commodore took the most sensible path to where they expect our capital to be, after 4 turns (T30) they'd be on the hill 2S of Duck Hunt, able to observe its lack of defenses. If we can see that coming, we'd need to divert a Granary chop into an Axe. And/or whipping an Axe out of Marios Bros straight after the 'Henge. Such a move isn't likely by Commodore, but after the last few turns, I'm expecting the unexpected. In short, that should give the flexibility we need to open with 2 Scouts at Duck Hunt.

[Ceiliazul]

Good thoughts Timski. we could even divert the planned Capital worker4 whip into an axe if needed. Honestly though, I don't see a suicide rush coming from Commodore. To his credit, Commodore hasn't shown any pattern to mail it in when he's behind. I expect he'll do everything he can to get back on his feet.

Goomba is now in neutral territory with a promotion to burn. He'll heal backto 2.0/2 in just 3 turns. The damage to Commodore is done, I'll likely push Goomba south to meet Kyan and let the 2-move workers fare for their own safety.

If Koopa can meet the SW opponent, we'll have the full set real soon!

I'm going to experiment with micro, but I love the capital going settler instead of worker4 if possible. We should be able to parlay this into a large classical lead.

In short, this turn is about as good as it gets. The only blip on the horizon is that GingerEagle appears to be keeping their head down, letting everyone else fight it out while developing 16-bit technology.

More soon, but I'm not worried about GE. he's making some serious mistakes so far.

[timski]

Rough revised opening:

No changes until T30, except to build the 'Henge, rather than diverting for a Worker, as you appear to be doing already. Also assuming 2 Scouts.

Liberated Workers are split - 1 goes to the Marios Bros for either the Mine-chop of the capital's Rice farm. The other 2 liberated Worker need to start farming the Rice on T32, but that gives them lots of options prior - probably roads.

T30 - Pottery techs. Marios Bros size 4, completes Stonehenge, Granary.

T31 - Marios Bros 2-pop whips Granary. Original Workers Cottage 1N of Duck Hunt. Mine-shop or capital Rice farm starts (maybe T32 for mine, depending on route).

T32 - Marios Bros size 3, complete Granary. Duck Hunt completes Granary while Copper. 2 liberated Worker farm the Rice.

T33 - Rice farm completes, Duck Hunt works Rice to size 2 next turn.

At T32/34 we can start spamming Axes from both cities. At size 4, Marios Bros can do some sexy 2-popwhip, Axe-per-turn moves. Just watch that any Mine-chop doesn't overflow. Commodore isn't going to manage more than Archers - do we need a Barracks. Alternatively, Marios Bros gets a Settler out by T37 (with no further whipping).

[Ceiliazul]

Commodore isn't going to manage more than Archers - do we need a Barracks. Alternatively, Marios Bros gets a Settler out by T37 (with no further whipping).

We can't keep him from copper forever, he could well get axes in ~10t

I really like the pacifist barracks theory: When you're in heated battle you need feet on the ground, but when you don't need so many troops a single barracks can have a greater impact. Put another way, Heroic Epic is stronger in peacetime than in war, because all your troops can come from one city. Ditto a barracks in the near future for us. We don't want to whip Duck Hunt much (it's likely our commerce capital starting very soon) so maybe the Capital can build a barracks?

Capital is still on the build plan, it only grew at EOT. Next turn, plan says worker... I think we keep the worker in order to not delay henge. Then it's "settlers R us" for a while.

These are just rough thoughts, I'll do some simming later today.

Edit: or whip an axe on t28 (instead of worker on t29) to shave a turn off 'Henge and prep a size 4 settler sooner? haven't tried it.

[timski]

If we can't keep Commodore from the Copper long enough (I'm inclined to agree), then there's little reason to try denying them Copper beyond the period when they'd likely get it (about turn 35) : We'd just set Commodore up as an easy kill for Kyan. So it looks like we're heading down an accelerated economy path in the meantime, in the knowledge that Commodore isn't going to be pulling any moves on us in the BC years.

The map features few hills, so effective production will be an interesting challenge for everyone.

Duck Hunt looks very commercial, Contra somewhat commercial, and B1/2 will be a decent GP spot. There isn't an obvious hammer-based production city out there. Marios Bros is certainly better for production than Duck Hunt, due to Marios Bros's more limited Cottage potential. Short-term Marios Bros has decent amounts of food, so can whip more heavily, without paying a financial price. Long-term I can envisage Workshops...

Ultimately that all depends on the extent to which we intend to run a specialist economy. Interestingly, if we've got the military advantage in the first 50 turn, by the 50s and 60s we could have a period of primarily growing to 10+ populations, which by the 70s can run both specialists and whip/Cottage. We'd expect to reach Caste around turn 70 - the point at which Spiritual gets interesting. Mace era shortly after, and we can think about a rampage.

5 Workers for 2 cities (one of which is semi-improved already) is approaching overkill: I don't see any need to delay growth for a 6th Worker anytime soon. Overflow Axe into an earlier 'Henge sounds good in principle. Granary should 2-pop whip without excessive micro-management. Then maybe finish the Axe while growing to 4 or 5, then into a Settler, Settler either 2-pop whipped, mine-chopped, or both. Rough ideas only - needs simming.

Like the idea of putting Barracks in before (war) rather than after, although the Granary and Settler have priority at the capital. A couple of early (pre-Barracks) Axes won't hurt in the meantime.

I'd like to get Libraries in by the mid-40s, since both Marios Bros and Duck Hunt generate a fair amount of commerce, even without specialists. Big 2-pop whips are a great way to do those quickly after teching Writing. May be best to slow-build military at Duck Hunt, while growing up to the happy/health cap, rather than constantly whipping out Axes. 2 forests are available if we need to speed any production there at short notice.

[Ceiliazul]

If we can't keep Commodore from the Copper long enough (I'm inclined to agree), then there's little reason to try denying them Copper beyond the period when they'd likely get it (about turn 35) : We'd just set Commodore up as an easy kill for Kyan.

Agreed. It's time to do a loop to meet Kyan and then pull back Goomba.

The map features few hills, so effective production will be an interesting challenge for everyone.

One word: slavery. One of the best general applications of SPI trait is extending the useful life of slavery. Even after caste and other civics are available, we can still duck in and out of slavery as needed.

Duck Hunt looks very commercial, Contra somewhat commercial, and B1/2 will be a decent GP spot.

I agree with this analysis. Mario is going to be the hammer factory for a while, I favor a barracks there in the near future (and likely nowhere else for a while.) Mario can alternate army/settler for ages. Duck Hunt is going to be the commerce capital, and likely Palace capital, as soon as maintenance starts getting painful. I see Oxford there as well. It's true that Plako did us a huge favor putting our FP and gems in the center of our blob: we'll exploit that to the fullest. In the near term, that means ephasizing cottages more than we normally would this early. This city will also be the first on we grow when the time comes. (See below for growth)

Other specialization decisions can wait until Caste and the national epics come available. One thing is I'd really like to see Heroic Epic (Already Enabled! ) in a coastal city for navy options.

growing to 10+ populations, which by the 70s can run both specialists and whip/Cottage. We'd expect to reach Caste around turn 70 - the point at which Spiritual gets interesting.

The efficiency of whips decreases with city size. In the grand sense, we want to keep cities small while whipping. Duck Hunt gets a pass, all other cities should not expand past size 6ish until late medievel, and then grow explosively as the era of whipping fades. After that, each city independently (depending on fertility/security) will get orders to grow explosively. By the time each city gets to size 10, whipping will be for emergencies only.

Mace era shortly after, and we can think about a rampage.

We're going to blow straight past maces to get our Spanish Mojo flowing. That means Conqs, ASAP. We'll play the board, of course, but the rampage will be better with triple-promoted trebs and stacks of conquistadors..

5 Workers for 2 cities (one of which is semi-improved already) is approaching overkill: I don't see any need to delay growth for a 6th Worker anytime soon. Overflow Axe into an earlier 'Henge sounds good in principle. Granary should 2-pop whip without excessive micro-management. Then maybe finish the Axe while growing to 4 or 5, then into a Settler, Settler either 2-pop whipped, mine-chopped, or both. Rough ideas only - needs simming.

I like the capital granary idea very much! I don't agree that 5 workers is overkill, because we'll presumably be expanding to 4 cities even sooner than originally planned! Our growth curve just got a big boost, but that's no reason to relax. :-)

Like the idea of putting Barracks in before (war) rather than after, although the Granary and Settler have priority at the capital. A couple of early (pre-Barracks) Axes won't hurt in the meantime.

Agreed completely. I still want 4 axes (and soon a couple spears) for our chokes before we can rest easy.

I'd like to get Libraries in by the mid-40s, since both Marios Bros and Duck Hunt generate a fair amount of commerce, even without specialists.

Sounds good in general, but as soon as the Palace moves, Mario Bros will lose most of it's commrce potential. We just got a 120 hammer head start on Kyan ad Dazed... maybe those Duck Hunt forests can be used for a wonder! One reason I want earlier scouts is to see just how important GLH will be. If we prioritize it, we can get it.